Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern
Mexico.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some limited
development is possible while the low moves slowly northward or
north-northeastward during the next couple of days. Atmospheric
conditions should become less conducive and prevent further
development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Thereafter,
some slow development is possible while the system drifts
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 08:49:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 09:34:45 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030848 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 The depression still has a disheveled satellite appearance, with a few clusters of deep convection but no clear signs of improved organization since the previous advisory. This is consistent with the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates (T2.0/30-kt), and the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The center position of the system is very uncertain given the lack of recent microwave or scatterometer data. Based on recent fixes, satellite trends, and earlier scatterometer data, the center has been nudged slightly north and east of previous estimates. A partial scatterometer pass shows the depression is likely interacting with a larger trough that extends northward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The uncertain initial motion of the system is northeastward at 2 kt. In general, the global models show a northeastward to northward motion through Friday while the system approaches and moves across the coast of southern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area. Once again, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted eastward based on the latest guidance. But, the forecast still might require future adjustments if it is determined that the center is located farther east than currently estimated. Significant intensification appears unlikely given the broad, disorganized convective structure of the depression and continued northeasterly shear over the system. However, the warm SSTs and moist environment in which it is embedded could allow for the depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of Mexico, and this is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast. Regardless, the primary threat remains heavy rainfall that will continue over portions of southern Mexico for the next day or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 14.5N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 15.1N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 16.1N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 17.5N 95.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 632 FOPZ11 KNHC 030845 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ANGEL 34 6 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HUATULCO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 12 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030845 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 95.9W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 95.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slightly faster northeastward to northward motion is forecast through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern Mexico and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible, and the system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it reaches the coast of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area beginning later today and continuing into early Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... As of 3:00 AM CST Thu Oct 3 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.5, -95.9 with movement NE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 95.9W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 95.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slightly faster northeastward to northward motion is forecast through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern Mexico and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible, and the system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it reaches the coast of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area beginning later today and continuing into early Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 030843 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 95.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 95.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 96.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.1N 95.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.1N 95.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.5N 95.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 95.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will broaden across the Upper Midwest into parts of the Northeast on Sunday. An associated cold front will move through the upper Ohio Valley on Sunday and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast early to mid morning on Monday. Thereafter, broad troughing will remain in the Northeast until late in the week as an expansive upper ridge envelops much of the CONUS. ...Upper-Ohio Valley Vicinity... The cold front will continue eastward on Sunday, moving through Ohio during the mid/late afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the front will be the main source of uncertainty in terms of how much severe threat there could be. Mid-level forcing will be sufficient, but low-level veering ahead of the front suggests uncertain storm coverage. A conditional threat for damaging winds exists during the late afternoon. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will broaden across the Upper Midwest into parts of the Northeast on Sunday. An associated cold front will move through the upper Ohio Valley on Sunday and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast early to mid morning on Monday. Thereafter, broad troughing will remain in the Northeast until late in the week as an expansive upper ridge envelops much of the CONUS. ...Upper-Ohio Valley Vicinity... The cold front will continue eastward on Sunday, moving through Ohio during the mid/late afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the front will be the main source of uncertainty in terms of how much severe threat there could be. Mid-level forcing will be sufficient, but low-level veering ahead of the front suggests uncertain storm coverage. A conditional threat for damaging winds exists during the late afternoon. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will broaden across the Upper Midwest into parts of the Northeast on Sunday. An associated cold front will move through the upper Ohio Valley on Sunday and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast early to mid morning on Monday. Thereafter, broad troughing will remain in the Northeast until late in the week as an expansive upper ridge envelops much of the CONUS. ...Upper-Ohio Valley Vicinity... The cold front will continue eastward on Sunday, moving through Ohio during the mid/late afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the front will be the main source of uncertainty in terms of how much severe threat there could be. Mid-level forcing will be sufficient, but low-level veering ahead of the front suggests uncertain storm coverage. A conditional threat for damaging winds exists during the late afternoon. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will broaden across the Upper Midwest into parts of the Northeast on Sunday. An associated cold front will move through the upper Ohio Valley on Sunday and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast early to mid morning on Monday. Thereafter, broad troughing will remain in the Northeast until late in the week as an expansive upper ridge envelops much of the CONUS. ...Upper-Ohio Valley Vicinity... The cold front will continue eastward on Sunday, moving through Ohio during the mid/late afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the front will be the main source of uncertainty in terms of how much severe threat there could be. Mid-level forcing will be sufficient, but low-level veering ahead of the front suggests uncertain storm coverage. A conditional threat for damaging winds exists during the late afternoon. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will broaden across the Upper Midwest into parts of the Northeast on Sunday. An associated cold front will move through the upper Ohio Valley on Sunday and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast early to mid morning on Monday. Thereafter, broad troughing will remain in the Northeast until late in the week as an expansive upper ridge envelops much of the CONUS. ...Upper-Ohio Valley Vicinity... The cold front will continue eastward on Sunday, moving through Ohio during the mid/late afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the front will be the main source of uncertainty in terms of how much severe threat there could be. Mid-level forcing will be sufficient, but low-level veering ahead of the front suggests uncertain storm coverage. A conditional threat for damaging winds exists during the late afternoon. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will broaden across the Upper Midwest into parts of the Northeast on Sunday. An associated cold front will move through the upper Ohio Valley on Sunday and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast early to mid morning on Monday. Thereafter, broad troughing will remain in the Northeast until late in the week as an expansive upper ridge envelops much of the CONUS. ...Upper-Ohio Valley Vicinity... The cold front will continue eastward on Sunday, moving through Ohio during the mid/late afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the front will be the main source of uncertainty in terms of how much severe threat there could be. Mid-level forcing will be sufficient, but low-level veering ahead of the front suggests uncertain storm coverage. A conditional threat for damaging winds exists during the late afternoon. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will make quick progress across the northern Plains and move into the upper Mississippi Valley by early evening. A deep surface cyclone within the Canadian Prairie will move east along with its parent upper-level system. Attendant to this cyclone, a cold front will quickly through Minnesota, Wisconsin, and eventually much of Michigan by early Sunday morning. ...Upper-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Ahead of the cold front, some moisture return is expected to occur. However, this moisture return will have no connection to the Gulf due to a previous frontal passage to near the Gulf Coast. Lack of low-level moisture will likely preclude any potential for surface-based storms. By early evening, strong mid-level ascent, linear frontal forcing, and 850 mb warm air advection should promote scattered storm development from the Mississippi Valley into parts of Wisconsin. Deep-layer winds will be strong, but effective shear will only be marginal given the elevated nature of the convection. 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE could support some stronger updrafts that could produce small hail. The marginal effective shear and messy storm modes should preclude any greater risk. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will make quick progress across the northern Plains and move into the upper Mississippi Valley by early evening. A deep surface cyclone within the Canadian Prairie will move east along with its parent upper-level system. Attendant to this cyclone, a cold front will quickly through Minnesota, Wisconsin, and eventually much of Michigan by early Sunday morning. ...Upper-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Ahead of the cold front, some moisture return is expected to occur. However, this moisture return will have no connection to the Gulf due to a previous frontal passage to near the Gulf Coast. Lack of low-level moisture will likely preclude any potential for surface-based storms. By early evening, strong mid-level ascent, linear frontal forcing, and 850 mb warm air advection should promote scattered storm development from the Mississippi Valley into parts of Wisconsin. Deep-layer winds will be strong, but effective shear will only be marginal given the elevated nature of the convection. 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE could support some stronger updrafts that could produce small hail. The marginal effective shear and messy storm modes should preclude any greater risk. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will make quick progress across the northern Plains and move into the upper Mississippi Valley by early evening. A deep surface cyclone within the Canadian Prairie will move east along with its parent upper-level system. Attendant to this cyclone, a cold front will quickly through Minnesota, Wisconsin, and eventually much of Michigan by early Sunday morning. ...Upper-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Ahead of the cold front, some moisture return is expected to occur. However, this moisture return will have no connection to the Gulf due to a previous frontal passage to near the Gulf Coast. Lack of low-level moisture will likely preclude any potential for surface-based storms. By early evening, strong mid-level ascent, linear frontal forcing, and 850 mb warm air advection should promote scattered storm development from the Mississippi Valley into parts of Wisconsin. Deep-layer winds will be strong, but effective shear will only be marginal given the elevated nature of the convection. 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE could support some stronger updrafts that could produce small hail. The marginal effective shear and messy storm modes should preclude any greater risk. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will make quick progress across the northern Plains and move into the upper Mississippi Valley by early evening. A deep surface cyclone within the Canadian Prairie will move east along with its parent upper-level system. Attendant to this cyclone, a cold front will quickly through Minnesota, Wisconsin, and eventually much of Michigan by early Sunday morning. ...Upper-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Ahead of the cold front, some moisture return is expected to occur. However, this moisture return will have no connection to the Gulf due to a previous frontal passage to near the Gulf Coast. Lack of low-level moisture will likely preclude any potential for surface-based storms. By early evening, strong mid-level ascent, linear frontal forcing, and 850 mb warm air advection should promote scattered storm development from the Mississippi Valley into parts of Wisconsin. Deep-layer winds will be strong, but effective shear will only be marginal given the elevated nature of the convection. 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE could support some stronger updrafts that could produce small hail. The marginal effective shear and messy storm modes should preclude any greater risk. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will make quick progress across the northern Plains and move into the upper Mississippi Valley by early evening. A deep surface cyclone within the Canadian Prairie will move east along with its parent upper-level system. Attendant to this cyclone, a cold front will quickly through Minnesota, Wisconsin, and eventually much of Michigan by early Sunday morning. ...Upper-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Ahead of the cold front, some moisture return is expected to occur. However, this moisture return will have no connection to the Gulf due to a previous frontal passage to near the Gulf Coast. Lack of low-level moisture will likely preclude any potential for surface-based storms. By early evening, strong mid-level ascent, linear frontal forcing, and 850 mb warm air advection should promote scattered storm development from the Mississippi Valley into parts of Wisconsin. Deep-layer winds will be strong, but effective shear will only be marginal given the elevated nature of the convection. 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE could support some stronger updrafts that could produce small hail. The marginal effective shear and messy storm modes should preclude any greater risk. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON...NORTHERN NEVADA...FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more