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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An area of developing thunderstorms overnight may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail across parts of southeastern Iowa, adjacent northeastern Missouri and west central Illinois. ...01Z Update... Within the mid-latitude westerlies, one notable short wave trough is forecast to continue digging across the northern Great Plains Red River Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region tonight. The southern periphery of the surrounding cyclonic mid/upper-level flow currently curves across southern Nebraska through the Missouri/Iowa border vicinity, where it is beginning to overspread an initially quasi-stationary frontal zone. Models suggest that this regime will become increasingly divergent late this evening into the overnight hours, contributing to increasing forcing for ascent. Lower/mid-level ascent is already increasing across Iowa and surrounding portions of the Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest, in response to warm advection. It appears that this will lead to increasing thunderstorm development by 05-07Z across parts of central/southern Iowa, where guidance indicates a corridor of modest destabilization is possible associated with weak elevated moisture return above the frontal zone. Forecast soundings indicate most unstable CAPE may increase in excess of 1000 J/kg along this corridor, in the presence of modest potential cloud-bearing layer shear. Thermodynamic profiles may include sufficiently cool mid-levels (and steep lapse rates) to support a risk for marginally severe hail (up to around 1 inch or so in diameter) in a few of the stronger storms. ..Kerr.. 10/04/2024 Read more

359
ABPZ20 KNHC 032335
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the
remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of
southeastern Mexico.

Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some limited
development is possible while the low moves slowly northward or
north-northeastward during the next couple of days. Atmospheric
conditions should become less conducive and prevent further
development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Thereafter,
some slow development is possible while the system drifts
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 3 23:30:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 3 23:30:02 UTC 2024.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 20:40:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 21:35:07 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 032040 TCDEP1 Remnants Of Eleven-E Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 A recent ASCAT overpass shows that a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event has interacted with the depression and disrupted the circulation. The scatterometer data indicate that there is no longer a well-defined closed circulation. although tropical-storm force winds are occurring to the northwest of the remains of the center. Based on this, the depression has degenerated to an open trough even though there are now stronger winds associated with the system than earlier. Thus, advisories and the Tropical Storm Warnings are being discontinued, and the current winds will be handled in marine gale warnings. The remnants of the center are near a cluster of convection over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and they should move northward over southeastern Mexico in the next 6-12 h. The remnants are expected to dissipate over Mexico on Friday. Although the depression has degenerated, the threat of heavy rainfall will continue over portions of southern Mexico for the next day or two. For additional information on the remnant low please see forecasts from the Meteorological Service of Mexico and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued, wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next several hours along the coast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, particularly in areas of onshore winds. 2. Due to the remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E, additional heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southern Mexico this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 15.7N 94.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 04/0600Z 16.5N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 032039 PWSEP1 REMNANTS OF ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF ELEVEN-E WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS ...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 032039 TCMEP1 REMNANTS OF ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 94.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 94.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 94.6W...POST-TROPICAL FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.5N 94.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 94.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS PLEASE SEE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 032039 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Eleven-E Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH... ...REMNANTS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WITH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 94.6W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: Ther are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Although the warnings have been discontinued, interests in southeastern Mexico should continue monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Eleven-E were located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 94.6 West. The remnants are moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward to northward motion is forecast through Friday. On the forecast track, the remnants of the depression should move inland over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec later today or tonight. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and the remnants are forecast to dissipate over Mexico on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, mainly in offshore flow to the north and west of the remnants. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the Remnants of Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along portions of the coast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon and tonight. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with localized amounts up to 8 inches, is expected across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with the Remnants of Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore flow. SURF: Swells generated by the Remnants of Eleven-E are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants please see forecasts issued by the Meteorological Service of Mexico and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Beven

...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH... ...REMNANTS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WITH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Thu Oct 3 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.7, -94.6 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will continue into the weekend across portions of the Rockies and into the central Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery across the northeast Pacific) across the Pacific Northwest and north-central U.S. through Saturday. A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains and Midwest through the day Saturday evening as an attendant surface low tracks across the southern Canadian Prairies in tandem with the upper wave. Dry, windy conditions behind this front will support widespread fire weather concerns. Upper-level ridging is expected to build across the western to central CONUS in the wake of Saturday's trough, which will result in unseasonably warm and dry conditions across the western two-thirds of the country. However, weak gradient winds limit predictability of widespread fire concerns heading into next week. ...D3/Saturday - Central Rockies into the Central Plains... Forecast guidance continues to show a strong wind signal ahead of and behind Saturday's cold front. Long-range ensembles show reasonably high probability for 20-30 mph winds across southern WY and from northern NE into the Dakotas. The strongest winds will likely occur across ND under the mid-level jet max, but cooler temperatures may limit RH reductions and limit confidence in the northern extent of the fire threat. Confidence in favorable overlap of strong winds, 15-20% RH, and receptive fuels increases with southward extent with the greatest fire threat expected from southern WY into central NE and far southern SD. The fire threat may peak during the mid/late morning hours across the central High Plains within the westerly downslope flow regime ahead of the front, followed by a wind shift with slightly higher RH, but strong northerly winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible further southeast from central KS into western IA within the pre-frontal dry return regime where fuels have been slowly drying. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will continue into the weekend across portions of the Rockies and into the central Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery across the northeast Pacific) across the Pacific Northwest and north-central U.S. through Saturday. A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains and Midwest through the day Saturday evening as an attendant surface low tracks across the southern Canadian Prairies in tandem with the upper wave. Dry, windy conditions behind this front will support widespread fire weather concerns. Upper-level ridging is expected to build across the western to central CONUS in the wake of Saturday's trough, which will result in unseasonably warm and dry conditions across the western two-thirds of the country. However, weak gradient winds limit predictability of widespread fire concerns heading into next week. ...D3/Saturday - Central Rockies into the Central Plains... Forecast guidance continues to show a strong wind signal ahead of and behind Saturday's cold front. Long-range ensembles show reasonably high probability for 20-30 mph winds across southern WY and from northern NE into the Dakotas. The strongest winds will likely occur across ND under the mid-level jet max, but cooler temperatures may limit RH reductions and limit confidence in the northern extent of the fire threat. Confidence in favorable overlap of strong winds, 15-20% RH, and receptive fuels increases with southward extent with the greatest fire threat expected from southern WY into central NE and far southern SD. The fire threat may peak during the mid/late morning hours across the central High Plains within the westerly downslope flow regime ahead of the front, followed by a wind shift with slightly higher RH, but strong northerly winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible further southeast from central KS into western IA within the pre-frontal dry return regime where fuels have been slowly drying. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will continue into the weekend across portions of the Rockies and into the central Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery across the northeast Pacific) across the Pacific Northwest and north-central U.S. through Saturday. A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains and Midwest through the day Saturday evening as an attendant surface low tracks across the southern Canadian Prairies in tandem with the upper wave. Dry, windy conditions behind this front will support widespread fire weather concerns. Upper-level ridging is expected to build across the western to central CONUS in the wake of Saturday's trough, which will result in unseasonably warm and dry conditions across the western two-thirds of the country. However, weak gradient winds limit predictability of widespread fire concerns heading into next week. ...D3/Saturday - Central Rockies into the Central Plains... Forecast guidance continues to show a strong wind signal ahead of and behind Saturday's cold front. Long-range ensembles show reasonably high probability for 20-30 mph winds across southern WY and from northern NE into the Dakotas. The strongest winds will likely occur across ND under the mid-level jet max, but cooler temperatures may limit RH reductions and limit confidence in the northern extent of the fire threat. Confidence in favorable overlap of strong winds, 15-20% RH, and receptive fuels increases with southward extent with the greatest fire threat expected from southern WY into central NE and far southern SD. The fire threat may peak during the mid/late morning hours across the central High Plains within the westerly downslope flow regime ahead of the front, followed by a wind shift with slightly higher RH, but strong northerly winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible further southeast from central KS into western IA within the pre-frontal dry return regime where fuels have been slowly drying. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will continue into the weekend across portions of the Rockies and into the central Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery across the northeast Pacific) across the Pacific Northwest and north-central U.S. through Saturday. A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains and Midwest through the day Saturday evening as an attendant surface low tracks across the southern Canadian Prairies in tandem with the upper wave. Dry, windy conditions behind this front will support widespread fire weather concerns. Upper-level ridging is expected to build across the western to central CONUS in the wake of Saturday's trough, which will result in unseasonably warm and dry conditions across the western two-thirds of the country. However, weak gradient winds limit predictability of widespread fire concerns heading into next week. ...D3/Saturday - Central Rockies into the Central Plains... Forecast guidance continues to show a strong wind signal ahead of and behind Saturday's cold front. Long-range ensembles show reasonably high probability for 20-30 mph winds across southern WY and from northern NE into the Dakotas. The strongest winds will likely occur across ND under the mid-level jet max, but cooler temperatures may limit RH reductions and limit confidence in the northern extent of the fire threat. Confidence in favorable overlap of strong winds, 15-20% RH, and receptive fuels increases with southward extent with the greatest fire threat expected from southern WY into central NE and far southern SD. The fire threat may peak during the mid/late morning hours across the central High Plains within the westerly downslope flow regime ahead of the front, followed by a wind shift with slightly higher RH, but strong northerly winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible further southeast from central KS into western IA within the pre-frontal dry return regime where fuels have been slowly drying. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will continue into the weekend across portions of the Rockies and into the central Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery across the northeast Pacific) across the Pacific Northwest and north-central U.S. through Saturday. A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains and Midwest through the day Saturday evening as an attendant surface low tracks across the southern Canadian Prairies in tandem with the upper wave. Dry, windy conditions behind this front will support widespread fire weather concerns. Upper-level ridging is expected to build across the western to central CONUS in the wake of Saturday's trough, which will result in unseasonably warm and dry conditions across the western two-thirds of the country. However, weak gradient winds limit predictability of widespread fire concerns heading into next week. ...D3/Saturday - Central Rockies into the Central Plains... Forecast guidance continues to show a strong wind signal ahead of and behind Saturday's cold front. Long-range ensembles show reasonably high probability for 20-30 mph winds across southern WY and from northern NE into the Dakotas. The strongest winds will likely occur across ND under the mid-level jet max, but cooler temperatures may limit RH reductions and limit confidence in the northern extent of the fire threat. Confidence in favorable overlap of strong winds, 15-20% RH, and receptive fuels increases with southward extent with the greatest fire threat expected from southern WY into central NE and far southern SD. The fire threat may peak during the mid/late morning hours across the central High Plains within the westerly downslope flow regime ahead of the front, followed by a wind shift with slightly higher RH, but strong northerly winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible further southeast from central KS into western IA within the pre-frontal dry return regime where fuels have been slowly drying. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will continue into the weekend across portions of the Rockies and into the central Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery across the northeast Pacific) across the Pacific Northwest and north-central U.S. through Saturday. A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains and Midwest through the day Saturday evening as an attendant surface low tracks across the southern Canadian Prairies in tandem with the upper wave. Dry, windy conditions behind this front will support widespread fire weather concerns. Upper-level ridging is expected to build across the western to central CONUS in the wake of Saturday's trough, which will result in unseasonably warm and dry conditions across the western two-thirds of the country. However, weak gradient winds limit predictability of widespread fire concerns heading into next week. ...D3/Saturday - Central Rockies into the Central Plains... Forecast guidance continues to show a strong wind signal ahead of and behind Saturday's cold front. Long-range ensembles show reasonably high probability for 20-30 mph winds across southern WY and from northern NE into the Dakotas. The strongest winds will likely occur across ND under the mid-level jet max, but cooler temperatures may limit RH reductions and limit confidence in the northern extent of the fire threat. Confidence in favorable overlap of strong winds, 15-20% RH, and receptive fuels increases with southward extent with the greatest fire threat expected from southern WY into central NE and far southern SD. The fire threat may peak during the mid/late morning hours across the central High Plains within the westerly downslope flow regime ahead of the front, followed by a wind shift with slightly higher RH, but strong northerly winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible further southeast from central KS into western IA within the pre-frontal dry return regime where fuels have been slowly drying. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will continue into the weekend across portions of the Rockies and into the central Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery across the northeast Pacific) across the Pacific Northwest and north-central U.S. through Saturday. A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains and Midwest through the day Saturday evening as an attendant surface low tracks across the southern Canadian Prairies in tandem with the upper wave. Dry, windy conditions behind this front will support widespread fire weather concerns. Upper-level ridging is expected to build across the western to central CONUS in the wake of Saturday's trough, which will result in unseasonably warm and dry conditions across the western two-thirds of the country. However, weak gradient winds limit predictability of widespread fire concerns heading into next week. ...D3/Saturday - Central Rockies into the Central Plains... Forecast guidance continues to show a strong wind signal ahead of and behind Saturday's cold front. Long-range ensembles show reasonably high probability for 20-30 mph winds across southern WY and from northern NE into the Dakotas. The strongest winds will likely occur across ND under the mid-level jet max, but cooler temperatures may limit RH reductions and limit confidence in the northern extent of the fire threat. Confidence in favorable overlap of strong winds, 15-20% RH, and receptive fuels increases with southward extent with the greatest fire threat expected from southern WY into central NE and far southern SD. The fire threat may peak during the mid/late morning hours across the central High Plains within the westerly downslope flow regime ahead of the front, followed by a wind shift with slightly higher RH, but strong northerly winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible further southeast from central KS into western IA within the pre-frontal dry return regime where fuels have been slowly drying. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms are expected over parts of Iowa tonight. ...20Z Update... Scattered storms persist across the central FL Peninsula within a moist easterly flow regime south of the upper ridge. Moderate instability may support locally strong gusts within the diurnal and weakly sheared regime. To the west, a small area of strong thunderstorm potential is forecast from IA into northwest IL after 06Z, in association with a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley. Lift near the 850 mb front along with steepening lapse rates may yield an elevated cluster of storms forming over south-central IA. Radar presentation of the initial activity may indicate hail in the strongest storm cores, but this may be short lived due to merging updrafts over time. While severe hail is not currently forecast, at least small hail appears likely. ..Jewell.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms are expected over parts of Iowa tonight. ...20Z Update... Scattered storms persist across the central FL Peninsula within a moist easterly flow regime south of the upper ridge. Moderate instability may support locally strong gusts within the diurnal and weakly sheared regime. To the west, a small area of strong thunderstorm potential is forecast from IA into northwest IL after 06Z, in association with a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley. Lift near the 850 mb front along with steepening lapse rates may yield an elevated cluster of storms forming over south-central IA. Radar presentation of the initial activity may indicate hail in the strongest storm cores, but this may be short lived due to merging updrafts over time. While severe hail is not currently forecast, at least small hail appears likely. ..Jewell.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms are expected over parts of Iowa tonight. ...20Z Update... Scattered storms persist across the central FL Peninsula within a moist easterly flow regime south of the upper ridge. Moderate instability may support locally strong gusts within the diurnal and weakly sheared regime. To the west, a small area of strong thunderstorm potential is forecast from IA into northwest IL after 06Z, in association with a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley. Lift near the 850 mb front along with steepening lapse rates may yield an elevated cluster of storms forming over south-central IA. Radar presentation of the initial activity may indicate hail in the strongest storm cores, but this may be short lived due to merging updrafts over time. While severe hail is not currently forecast, at least small hail appears likely. ..Jewell.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. Read more