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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the western New York and Pennsylvania into West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A negatively tilted upper trough will shift east from the Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday. A belt of strong westerly deep-layer flow will accompany this system and overspread the Upper OH Valley into NY/PA during the afternoon and evening. A narrow warm sector will bring upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the region ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Meanwhile, cooling aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7.5 C/km. This will contribute to modest destabilization across western NY/PA into WV and eastern KY (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg). Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt (somewhat less with southward extent) suggest organized storms will be possible along the cold front. Elongated and somewhat straight hodographs amid other favorable parameters indicate isolated large hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Strong gusts also may occur with this activity as convection quickly tracks east during the late afternoon/early evening. ..Leitman.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the western New York and Pennsylvania into West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A negatively tilted upper trough will shift east from the Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday. A belt of strong westerly deep-layer flow will accompany this system and overspread the Upper OH Valley into NY/PA during the afternoon and evening. A narrow warm sector will bring upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the region ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Meanwhile, cooling aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7.5 C/km. This will contribute to modest destabilization across western NY/PA into WV and eastern KY (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg). Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt (somewhat less with southward extent) suggest organized storms will be possible along the cold front. Elongated and somewhat straight hodographs amid other favorable parameters indicate isolated large hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Strong gusts also may occur with this activity as convection quickly tracks east during the late afternoon/early evening. ..Leitman.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the western New York and Pennsylvania into West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A negatively tilted upper trough will shift east from the Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday. A belt of strong westerly deep-layer flow will accompany this system and overspread the Upper OH Valley into NY/PA during the afternoon and evening. A narrow warm sector will bring upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the region ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Meanwhile, cooling aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7.5 C/km. This will contribute to modest destabilization across western NY/PA into WV and eastern KY (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg). Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt (somewhat less with southward extent) suggest organized storms will be possible along the cold front. Elongated and somewhat straight hodographs amid other favorable parameters indicate isolated large hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Strong gusts also may occur with this activity as convection quickly tracks east during the late afternoon/early evening. ..Leitman.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the western New York and Pennsylvania into West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A negatively tilted upper trough will shift east from the Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday. A belt of strong westerly deep-layer flow will accompany this system and overspread the Upper OH Valley into NY/PA during the afternoon and evening. A narrow warm sector will bring upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the region ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Meanwhile, cooling aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7.5 C/km. This will contribute to modest destabilization across western NY/PA into WV and eastern KY (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg). Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt (somewhat less with southward extent) suggest organized storms will be possible along the cold front. Elongated and somewhat straight hodographs amid other favorable parameters indicate isolated large hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Strong gusts also may occur with this activity as convection quickly tracks east during the late afternoon/early evening. ..Leitman.. 10/04/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some limited
development is possible today while the low moves slowly northward
or north-northeastward, but atmospheric conditions should become
less conducive and prevent further development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the early part of next week. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the middle part of next week
while the system drifts slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Saturday evening. ...Great Lakes... A potent upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will shift east on Saturday, becoming positioned over the Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong 70+ kt southwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread the Upper Midwest as the trough shifts east. Meanwhile, cooling aloft will lead to a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across WI/MI by late afternoon/evening. Low-level inhibition will limit surface-based instability, but cool temperatures aloft and increasing midlevel moisture will support MUCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg. A cold front extending south from a deepening low over Manitoba and western Ontario will shift east across the Upper Midwest during the day and into the evening, becoming oriented from central Lower MI to northern OK by 12z Sunday. A warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough, coupled with increasing instability and moderate vertical shear will support thunderstorm development near the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few organized cells may produce strong gusts and marginal hail across parts of northern WI into the U.P. of MI during the evening, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included with the Day 2 update. ...Gulf Coast... East to northeast low-level flow will persist over the Gulf, where a very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place along the coastal regions from TX eastward across Florida. Sufficient instability will support thunderstorm potential, especially along any sea breeze boundaries where low-level convergence will be enhanced. Overall instability will remain modest, with poor lapse rates forecast and limited vertical shear, precluding severe thunderstorm concerns. ..Leitman.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Saturday evening. ...Great Lakes... A potent upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will shift east on Saturday, becoming positioned over the Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong 70+ kt southwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread the Upper Midwest as the trough shifts east. Meanwhile, cooling aloft will lead to a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across WI/MI by late afternoon/evening. Low-level inhibition will limit surface-based instability, but cool temperatures aloft and increasing midlevel moisture will support MUCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg. A cold front extending south from a deepening low over Manitoba and western Ontario will shift east across the Upper Midwest during the day and into the evening, becoming oriented from central Lower MI to northern OK by 12z Sunday. A warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough, coupled with increasing instability and moderate vertical shear will support thunderstorm development near the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few organized cells may produce strong gusts and marginal hail across parts of northern WI into the U.P. of MI during the evening, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included with the Day 2 update. ...Gulf Coast... East to northeast low-level flow will persist over the Gulf, where a very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place along the coastal regions from TX eastward across Florida. Sufficient instability will support thunderstorm potential, especially along any sea breeze boundaries where low-level convergence will be enhanced. Overall instability will remain modest, with poor lapse rates forecast and limited vertical shear, precluding severe thunderstorm concerns. ..Leitman.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Saturday evening. ...Great Lakes... A potent upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will shift east on Saturday, becoming positioned over the Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong 70+ kt southwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread the Upper Midwest as the trough shifts east. Meanwhile, cooling aloft will lead to a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across WI/MI by late afternoon/evening. Low-level inhibition will limit surface-based instability, but cool temperatures aloft and increasing midlevel moisture will support MUCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg. A cold front extending south from a deepening low over Manitoba and western Ontario will shift east across the Upper Midwest during the day and into the evening, becoming oriented from central Lower MI to northern OK by 12z Sunday. A warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough, coupled with increasing instability and moderate vertical shear will support thunderstorm development near the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few organized cells may produce strong gusts and marginal hail across parts of northern WI into the U.P. of MI during the evening, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included with the Day 2 update. ...Gulf Coast... East to northeast low-level flow will persist over the Gulf, where a very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place along the coastal regions from TX eastward across Florida. Sufficient instability will support thunderstorm potential, especially along any sea breeze boundaries where low-level convergence will be enhanced. Overall instability will remain modest, with poor lapse rates forecast and limited vertical shear, precluding severe thunderstorm concerns. ..Leitman.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Saturday evening. ...Great Lakes... A potent upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will shift east on Saturday, becoming positioned over the Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong 70+ kt southwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread the Upper Midwest as the trough shifts east. Meanwhile, cooling aloft will lead to a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across WI/MI by late afternoon/evening. Low-level inhibition will limit surface-based instability, but cool temperatures aloft and increasing midlevel moisture will support MUCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg. A cold front extending south from a deepening low over Manitoba and western Ontario will shift east across the Upper Midwest during the day and into the evening, becoming oriented from central Lower MI to northern OK by 12z Sunday. A warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough, coupled with increasing instability and moderate vertical shear will support thunderstorm development near the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few organized cells may produce strong gusts and marginal hail across parts of northern WI into the U.P. of MI during the evening, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included with the Day 2 update. ...Gulf Coast... East to northeast low-level flow will persist over the Gulf, where a very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place along the coastal regions from TX eastward across Florida. Sufficient instability will support thunderstorm potential, especially along any sea breeze boundaries where low-level convergence will be enhanced. Overall instability will remain modest, with poor lapse rates forecast and limited vertical shear, precluding severe thunderstorm concerns. ..Leitman.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Saturday evening. ...Great Lakes... A potent upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will shift east on Saturday, becoming positioned over the Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong 70+ kt southwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread the Upper Midwest as the trough shifts east. Meanwhile, cooling aloft will lead to a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across WI/MI by late afternoon/evening. Low-level inhibition will limit surface-based instability, but cool temperatures aloft and increasing midlevel moisture will support MUCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg. A cold front extending south from a deepening low over Manitoba and western Ontario will shift east across the Upper Midwest during the day and into the evening, becoming oriented from central Lower MI to northern OK by 12z Sunday. A warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough, coupled with increasing instability and moderate vertical shear will support thunderstorm development near the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few organized cells may produce strong gusts and marginal hail across parts of northern WI into the U.P. of MI during the evening, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included with the Day 2 update. ...Gulf Coast... East to northeast low-level flow will persist over the Gulf, where a very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place along the coastal regions from TX eastward across Florida. Sufficient instability will support thunderstorm potential, especially along any sea breeze boundaries where low-level convergence will be enhanced. Overall instability will remain modest, with poor lapse rates forecast and limited vertical shear, precluding severe thunderstorm concerns. ..Leitman.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Saturday evening. ...Great Lakes... A potent upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will shift east on Saturday, becoming positioned over the Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong 70+ kt southwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread the Upper Midwest as the trough shifts east. Meanwhile, cooling aloft will lead to a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across WI/MI by late afternoon/evening. Low-level inhibition will limit surface-based instability, but cool temperatures aloft and increasing midlevel moisture will support MUCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg. A cold front extending south from a deepening low over Manitoba and western Ontario will shift east across the Upper Midwest during the day and into the evening, becoming oriented from central Lower MI to northern OK by 12z Sunday. A warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough, coupled with increasing instability and moderate vertical shear will support thunderstorm development near the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few organized cells may produce strong gusts and marginal hail across parts of northern WI into the U.P. of MI during the evening, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included with the Day 2 update. ...Gulf Coast... East to northeast low-level flow will persist over the Gulf, where a very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place along the coastal regions from TX eastward across Florida. Sufficient instability will support thunderstorm potential, especially along any sea breeze boundaries where low-level convergence will be enhanced. Overall instability will remain modest, with poor lapse rates forecast and limited vertical shear, precluding severe thunderstorm concerns. ..Leitman.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Saturday evening. ...Great Lakes... A potent upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will shift east on Saturday, becoming positioned over the Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong 70+ kt southwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread the Upper Midwest as the trough shifts east. Meanwhile, cooling aloft will lead to a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across WI/MI by late afternoon/evening. Low-level inhibition will limit surface-based instability, but cool temperatures aloft and increasing midlevel moisture will support MUCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg. A cold front extending south from a deepening low over Manitoba and western Ontario will shift east across the Upper Midwest during the day and into the evening, becoming oriented from central Lower MI to northern OK by 12z Sunday. A warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough, coupled with increasing instability and moderate vertical shear will support thunderstorm development near the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few organized cells may produce strong gusts and marginal hail across parts of northern WI into the U.P. of MI during the evening, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included with the Day 2 update. ...Gulf Coast... East to northeast low-level flow will persist over the Gulf, where a very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place along the coastal regions from TX eastward across Florida. Sufficient instability will support thunderstorm potential, especially along any sea breeze boundaries where low-level convergence will be enhanced. Overall instability will remain modest, with poor lapse rates forecast and limited vertical shear, precluding severe thunderstorm concerns. ..Leitman.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes will continue to quickly move east through the afternoon and a lingering thunderstorm cluster over west-central IL late this morning will gradually diminish as this disturbance becomes displaced. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow will limit storm intensity in these regions. A vigorous shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. ..Smith/Lyons.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes will continue to quickly move east through the afternoon and a lingering thunderstorm cluster over west-central IL late this morning will gradually diminish as this disturbance becomes displaced. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow will limit storm intensity in these regions. A vigorous shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. ..Smith/Lyons.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes will continue to quickly move east through the afternoon and a lingering thunderstorm cluster over west-central IL late this morning will gradually diminish as this disturbance becomes displaced. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow will limit storm intensity in these regions. A vigorous shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. ..Smith/Lyons.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes will continue to quickly move east through the afternoon and a lingering thunderstorm cluster over west-central IL late this morning will gradually diminish as this disturbance becomes displaced. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow will limit storm intensity in these regions. A vigorous shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. ..Smith/Lyons.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes will continue to quickly move east through the afternoon and a lingering thunderstorm cluster over west-central IL late this morning will gradually diminish as this disturbance becomes displaced. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow will limit storm intensity in these regions. A vigorous shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. ..Smith/Lyons.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes will continue to quickly move east through the afternoon and a lingering thunderstorm cluster over west-central IL late this morning will gradually diminish as this disturbance becomes displaced. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow will limit storm intensity in these regions. A vigorous shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. ..Smith/Lyons.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... The overall forecast for widespread elevated to critical conditions across the northern Intermountain West onto the northern Plains ahead of an approaching cold front remains on track. However, based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance, the Elevated area was expanded south/east in portions of Nevada, Utah, and Colorado. Additionally, both Critical areas were expanded. Elevated/locally critical conditions will continue overnight from southeast Montana through eastern Wyoming. Elevated conditions are likely to linger into the overnight in portions of the Great Basin, especially at mid/upper slopes due to remaining in the pre-frontal environment, with poor RH recovery and gusty winds aloft. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the northwestern CONUS while supporting the development of a pronounced surface cyclone across southern Saskatchewan today. As the surface cyclone quickly translates eastward through the period, a wide corridor of strong surface gradient winds will overlap with a dry boundary layer and overspread very dry fuels across portions of the northwestern to north-central U.S. Elevated highlights are in place across the Great Basin toward the Northern Plains. Widespread 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected from eastern Oregon to central Wyoming, with the wind direction shifting to more southerly across the Plains states (given surface lee troughing). RH will drop to 15 percent over portions of the Intermountain West, with RH dipping to 20-25 percent in the Northern Plains. Sustained surface wind speeds are expected to reach 20-25 mph over portions of the Harney Basin into the northern Great Basin, as well as central Wyoming by afternoon peak heating, where Critical highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... The overall forecast for widespread elevated to critical conditions across the northern Intermountain West onto the northern Plains ahead of an approaching cold front remains on track. However, based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance, the Elevated area was expanded south/east in portions of Nevada, Utah, and Colorado. Additionally, both Critical areas were expanded. Elevated/locally critical conditions will continue overnight from southeast Montana through eastern Wyoming. Elevated conditions are likely to linger into the overnight in portions of the Great Basin, especially at mid/upper slopes due to remaining in the pre-frontal environment, with poor RH recovery and gusty winds aloft. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the northwestern CONUS while supporting the development of a pronounced surface cyclone across southern Saskatchewan today. As the surface cyclone quickly translates eastward through the period, a wide corridor of strong surface gradient winds will overlap with a dry boundary layer and overspread very dry fuels across portions of the northwestern to north-central U.S. Elevated highlights are in place across the Great Basin toward the Northern Plains. Widespread 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected from eastern Oregon to central Wyoming, with the wind direction shifting to more southerly across the Plains states (given surface lee troughing). RH will drop to 15 percent over portions of the Intermountain West, with RH dipping to 20-25 percent in the Northern Plains. Sustained surface wind speeds are expected to reach 20-25 mph over portions of the Harney Basin into the northern Great Basin, as well as central Wyoming by afternoon peak heating, where Critical highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more