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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper low will exit the Great Lakes Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday then slowly move over southeast Canada and the Northeast early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West through early next week, with a weak upper low forecast to move onshore over southern California early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging is forecast to shift eastward over the central US by Day 7/Thursday - Day 8/Friday with upper-level troughing likely moving onto the West Coast late next week. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West through mid-next week then expanding and shifting to the central US. ...Day 3/Sunday: Midwest and Plains... Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely across portions of the Midwest and central Plains, with locally critical conditions possible from Minnesota into Iowa. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions may develop farther south and east into Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana, but recent rainfall will help mitigate the low forecast probability of critical winds/RH. Elevated conditions may also develop in portions of Kansas and eastern Colorado into northern Oklahoma as well as southern Wyoming. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 8/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions are likely from portions of inland southern California into the southern Great Basin on Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday as a weak upper low moves onshore. However, there remains too much uncertainty regarding the strength and timing of this low and subsequent development of potentially critical winds/RH. A larger upper-level trough is forecast to move onto the West Coast late next week, but guidance is mixed on the timing and how far south/east stronger flow aloft extends into the Intermountain West. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper low will exit the Great Lakes Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday then slowly move over southeast Canada and the Northeast early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West through early next week, with a weak upper low forecast to move onshore over southern California early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging is forecast to shift eastward over the central US by Day 7/Thursday - Day 8/Friday with upper-level troughing likely moving onto the West Coast late next week. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West through mid-next week then expanding and shifting to the central US. ...Day 3/Sunday: Midwest and Plains... Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely across portions of the Midwest and central Plains, with locally critical conditions possible from Minnesota into Iowa. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions may develop farther south and east into Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana, but recent rainfall will help mitigate the low forecast probability of critical winds/RH. Elevated conditions may also develop in portions of Kansas and eastern Colorado into northern Oklahoma as well as southern Wyoming. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 8/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions are likely from portions of inland southern California into the southern Great Basin on Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday as a weak upper low moves onshore. However, there remains too much uncertainty regarding the strength and timing of this low and subsequent development of potentially critical winds/RH. A larger upper-level trough is forecast to move onto the West Coast late next week, but guidance is mixed on the timing and how far south/east stronger flow aloft extends into the Intermountain West. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper low will exit the Great Lakes Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday then slowly move over southeast Canada and the Northeast early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West through early next week, with a weak upper low forecast to move onshore over southern California early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging is forecast to shift eastward over the central US by Day 7/Thursday - Day 8/Friday with upper-level troughing likely moving onto the West Coast late next week. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West through mid-next week then expanding and shifting to the central US. ...Day 3/Sunday: Midwest and Plains... Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely across portions of the Midwest and central Plains, with locally critical conditions possible from Minnesota into Iowa. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions may develop farther south and east into Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana, but recent rainfall will help mitigate the low forecast probability of critical winds/RH. Elevated conditions may also develop in portions of Kansas and eastern Colorado into northern Oklahoma as well as southern Wyoming. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 8/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions are likely from portions of inland southern California into the southern Great Basin on Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday as a weak upper low moves onshore. However, there remains too much uncertainty regarding the strength and timing of this low and subsequent development of potentially critical winds/RH. A larger upper-level trough is forecast to move onto the West Coast late next week, but guidance is mixed on the timing and how far south/east stronger flow aloft extends into the Intermountain West. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper low will exit the Great Lakes Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday then slowly move over southeast Canada and the Northeast early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West through early next week, with a weak upper low forecast to move onshore over southern California early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging is forecast to shift eastward over the central US by Day 7/Thursday - Day 8/Friday with upper-level troughing likely moving onto the West Coast late next week. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West through mid-next week then expanding and shifting to the central US. ...Day 3/Sunday: Midwest and Plains... Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely across portions of the Midwest and central Plains, with locally critical conditions possible from Minnesota into Iowa. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions may develop farther south and east into Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana, but recent rainfall will help mitigate the low forecast probability of critical winds/RH. Elevated conditions may also develop in portions of Kansas and eastern Colorado into northern Oklahoma as well as southern Wyoming. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 8/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions are likely from portions of inland southern California into the southern Great Basin on Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday as a weak upper low moves onshore. However, there remains too much uncertainty regarding the strength and timing of this low and subsequent development of potentially critical winds/RH. A larger upper-level trough is forecast to move onto the West Coast late next week, but guidance is mixed on the timing and how far south/east stronger flow aloft extends into the Intermountain West. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper low will exit the Great Lakes Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday then slowly move over southeast Canada and the Northeast early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West through early next week, with a weak upper low forecast to move onshore over southern California early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging is forecast to shift eastward over the central US by Day 7/Thursday - Day 8/Friday with upper-level troughing likely moving onto the West Coast late next week. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West through mid-next week then expanding and shifting to the central US. ...Day 3/Sunday: Midwest and Plains... Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely across portions of the Midwest and central Plains, with locally critical conditions possible from Minnesota into Iowa. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions may develop farther south and east into Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana, but recent rainfall will help mitigate the low forecast probability of critical winds/RH. Elevated conditions may also develop in portions of Kansas and eastern Colorado into northern Oklahoma as well as southern Wyoming. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 8/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions are likely from portions of inland southern California into the southern Great Basin on Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday as a weak upper low moves onshore. However, there remains too much uncertainty regarding the strength and timing of this low and subsequent development of potentially critical winds/RH. A larger upper-level trough is forecast to move onto the West Coast late next week, but guidance is mixed on the timing and how far south/east stronger flow aloft extends into the Intermountain West. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Little was changed to the existing outlook for the 20Z outlook except to remove the 10% general thunderstorm area from IL as the activity has diminished. Otherwise, general storms will remain possible from the TX Coast into much of the Southeast, south of the Great Lakes high and within the relatively moist easterly flow regime. ..Jewell.. 10/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes will continue to quickly move east through the afternoon and a lingering thunderstorm cluster over west-central IL late this morning will gradually diminish as this disturbance becomes displaced. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow will limit storm intensity in these regions. A vigorous shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Little was changed to the existing outlook for the 20Z outlook except to remove the 10% general thunderstorm area from IL as the activity has diminished. Otherwise, general storms will remain possible from the TX Coast into much of the Southeast, south of the Great Lakes high and within the relatively moist easterly flow regime. ..Jewell.. 10/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes will continue to quickly move east through the afternoon and a lingering thunderstorm cluster over west-central IL late this morning will gradually diminish as this disturbance becomes displaced. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow will limit storm intensity in these regions. A vigorous shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Little was changed to the existing outlook for the 20Z outlook except to remove the 10% general thunderstorm area from IL as the activity has diminished. Otherwise, general storms will remain possible from the TX Coast into much of the Southeast, south of the Great Lakes high and within the relatively moist easterly flow regime. ..Jewell.. 10/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes will continue to quickly move east through the afternoon and a lingering thunderstorm cluster over west-central IL late this morning will gradually diminish as this disturbance becomes displaced. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow will limit storm intensity in these regions. A vigorous shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Little was changed to the existing outlook for the 20Z outlook except to remove the 10% general thunderstorm area from IL as the activity has diminished. Otherwise, general storms will remain possible from the TX Coast into much of the Southeast, south of the Great Lakes high and within the relatively moist easterly flow regime. ..Jewell.. 10/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes will continue to quickly move east through the afternoon and a lingering thunderstorm cluster over west-central IL late this morning will gradually diminish as this disturbance becomes displaced. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow will limit storm intensity in these regions. A vigorous shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Little was changed to the existing outlook for the 20Z outlook except to remove the 10% general thunderstorm area from IL as the activity has diminished. Otherwise, general storms will remain possible from the TX Coast into much of the Southeast, south of the Great Lakes high and within the relatively moist easterly flow regime. ..Jewell.. 10/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes will continue to quickly move east through the afternoon and a lingering thunderstorm cluster over west-central IL late this morning will gradually diminish as this disturbance becomes displaced. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow will limit storm intensity in these regions. A vigorous shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Little was changed to the existing outlook for the 20Z outlook except to remove the 10% general thunderstorm area from IL as the activity has diminished. Otherwise, general storms will remain possible from the TX Coast into much of the Southeast, south of the Great Lakes high and within the relatively moist easterly flow regime. ..Jewell.. 10/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes will continue to quickly move east through the afternoon and a lingering thunderstorm cluster over west-central IL late this morning will gradually diminish as this disturbance becomes displaced. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow will limit storm intensity in these regions. A vigorous shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track as widespread elevated to critical conditions are expected from eastern Montana, North Dakota, and western Montana southward through much of Wyoming, Colorado, and Kansas into northern New Mexico and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. The Elevated and Critical areas were both expanded based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Of note, elevated and critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue from Day 1/Friday night into Day 2/Saturday AM in portions of southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, and northeast Colorado, with elevated/critical conditions beginning by late morning in the vicinity of the Critical area. There remains uncertainty on the northern/eastern borders of the Elevated area, and post-frontal dry/breezy elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface lee trough will progress over the Plains states and quickly eject into the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Strong southerly flow will precede the surface lee trough, with a strong northwesterly surface wind shift noted behind a cold front that is poised to sweep across the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon. Widespread Elevated highlights have been introduced where sustained surface winds should exceed 15 mph amid 15-25 percent RH and very dry fuels. Critical highlights are in place along the Colorado/Wyoming border into portions of the Central Plains, where 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds and 15 percent RH is expected immediately behind the cold front. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track as widespread elevated to critical conditions are expected from eastern Montana, North Dakota, and western Montana southward through much of Wyoming, Colorado, and Kansas into northern New Mexico and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. The Elevated and Critical areas were both expanded based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Of note, elevated and critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue from Day 1/Friday night into Day 2/Saturday AM in portions of southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, and northeast Colorado, with elevated/critical conditions beginning by late morning in the vicinity of the Critical area. There remains uncertainty on the northern/eastern borders of the Elevated area, and post-frontal dry/breezy elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface lee trough will progress over the Plains states and quickly eject into the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Strong southerly flow will precede the surface lee trough, with a strong northwesterly surface wind shift noted behind a cold front that is poised to sweep across the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon. Widespread Elevated highlights have been introduced where sustained surface winds should exceed 15 mph amid 15-25 percent RH and very dry fuels. Critical highlights are in place along the Colorado/Wyoming border into portions of the Central Plains, where 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds and 15 percent RH is expected immediately behind the cold front. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track as widespread elevated to critical conditions are expected from eastern Montana, North Dakota, and western Montana southward through much of Wyoming, Colorado, and Kansas into northern New Mexico and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. The Elevated and Critical areas were both expanded based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Of note, elevated and critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue from Day 1/Friday night into Day 2/Saturday AM in portions of southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, and northeast Colorado, with elevated/critical conditions beginning by late morning in the vicinity of the Critical area. There remains uncertainty on the northern/eastern borders of the Elevated area, and post-frontal dry/breezy elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface lee trough will progress over the Plains states and quickly eject into the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Strong southerly flow will precede the surface lee trough, with a strong northwesterly surface wind shift noted behind a cold front that is poised to sweep across the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon. Widespread Elevated highlights have been introduced where sustained surface winds should exceed 15 mph amid 15-25 percent RH and very dry fuels. Critical highlights are in place along the Colorado/Wyoming border into portions of the Central Plains, where 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds and 15 percent RH is expected immediately behind the cold front. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track as widespread elevated to critical conditions are expected from eastern Montana, North Dakota, and western Montana southward through much of Wyoming, Colorado, and Kansas into northern New Mexico and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. The Elevated and Critical areas were both expanded based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Of note, elevated and critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue from Day 1/Friday night into Day 2/Saturday AM in portions of southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, and northeast Colorado, with elevated/critical conditions beginning by late morning in the vicinity of the Critical area. There remains uncertainty on the northern/eastern borders of the Elevated area, and post-frontal dry/breezy elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface lee trough will progress over the Plains states and quickly eject into the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Strong southerly flow will precede the surface lee trough, with a strong northwesterly surface wind shift noted behind a cold front that is poised to sweep across the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon. Widespread Elevated highlights have been introduced where sustained surface winds should exceed 15 mph amid 15-25 percent RH and very dry fuels. Critical highlights are in place along the Colorado/Wyoming border into portions of the Central Plains, where 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds and 15 percent RH is expected immediately behind the cold front. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track as widespread elevated to critical conditions are expected from eastern Montana, North Dakota, and western Montana southward through much of Wyoming, Colorado, and Kansas into northern New Mexico and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. The Elevated and Critical areas were both expanded based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Of note, elevated and critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue from Day 1/Friday night into Day 2/Saturday AM in portions of southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, and northeast Colorado, with elevated/critical conditions beginning by late morning in the vicinity of the Critical area. There remains uncertainty on the northern/eastern borders of the Elevated area, and post-frontal dry/breezy elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface lee trough will progress over the Plains states and quickly eject into the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Strong southerly flow will precede the surface lee trough, with a strong northwesterly surface wind shift noted behind a cold front that is poised to sweep across the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon. Widespread Elevated highlights have been introduced where sustained surface winds should exceed 15 mph amid 15-25 percent RH and very dry fuels. Critical highlights are in place along the Colorado/Wyoming border into portions of the Central Plains, where 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds and 15 percent RH is expected immediately behind the cold front. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track as widespread elevated to critical conditions are expected from eastern Montana, North Dakota, and western Montana southward through much of Wyoming, Colorado, and Kansas into northern New Mexico and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. The Elevated and Critical areas were both expanded based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Of note, elevated and critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue from Day 1/Friday night into Day 2/Saturday AM in portions of southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, and northeast Colorado, with elevated/critical conditions beginning by late morning in the vicinity of the Critical area. There remains uncertainty on the northern/eastern borders of the Elevated area, and post-frontal dry/breezy elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface lee trough will progress over the Plains states and quickly eject into the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Strong southerly flow will precede the surface lee trough, with a strong northwesterly surface wind shift noted behind a cold front that is poised to sweep across the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon. Widespread Elevated highlights have been introduced where sustained surface winds should exceed 15 mph amid 15-25 percent RH and very dry fuels. Critical highlights are in place along the Colorado/Wyoming border into portions of the Central Plains, where 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds and 15 percent RH is expected immediately behind the cold front. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the western New York and Pennsylvania into West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A negatively tilted upper trough will shift east from the Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday. A belt of strong westerly deep-layer flow will accompany this system and overspread the Upper OH Valley into NY/PA during the afternoon and evening. A narrow warm sector will bring upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the region ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Meanwhile, cooling aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7.5 C/km. This will contribute to modest destabilization across western NY/PA into WV and eastern KY (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg). Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt (somewhat less with southward extent) suggest organized storms will be possible along the cold front. Elongated and somewhat straight hodographs amid other favorable parameters indicate isolated large hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Strong gusts also may occur with this activity as convection quickly tracks east during the late afternoon/early evening. ..Leitman.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the western New York and Pennsylvania into West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A negatively tilted upper trough will shift east from the Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday. A belt of strong westerly deep-layer flow will accompany this system and overspread the Upper OH Valley into NY/PA during the afternoon and evening. A narrow warm sector will bring upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the region ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Meanwhile, cooling aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7.5 C/km. This will contribute to modest destabilization across western NY/PA into WV and eastern KY (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg). Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt (somewhat less with southward extent) suggest organized storms will be possible along the cold front. Elongated and somewhat straight hodographs amid other favorable parameters indicate isolated large hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Strong gusts also may occur with this activity as convection quickly tracks east during the late afternoon/early evening. ..Leitman.. 10/04/2024 Read more