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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A General Thunderstorm area was added for portions of the TX Trans-Pecos, where widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over the higher terrain -- aided by subtle large-scale ascent ahead of a midlevel low evident in water-vapor imagery. Over southern FL and the Keys, the 18Z MFL/KEY special soundings and latest VWP data corroborate earlier thinking regarding unfavorable deep-layer lapse rates and modest low-level hodograph curvature (despite gradually strengthening flow in the 0.5-1.5-km layer). These factors should continue to limit the overall organization/intensity of thunderstorms -- precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Discussion... Midday surface analysis shows a weak frontal zone draped generally east to west across the far southern part of the FL Peninsula and extending westward to a weak surface low 180 mi to the west of Naples, FL. This weak low, well to the east of Hurricane Milton, is forecast to develop over the Gulf Stream east of South FL later this evening. In the vicinity of this boundary where local backing of surface to 0.5 km flow exists, some augmentation of the hodograph may result in one or two transient cells exhibiting weak cyclonic shear over the Everglades and perhaps coastal South FL this afternoon. However, the very moist profile and poor lapse rates will favor outflow with the larger convective clusters. As such, will maintain no severe highlights this outlook update. A few thunderstorms may linger near the southern New England coast early this afternoon, with isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A General Thunderstorm area was added for portions of the TX Trans-Pecos, where widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over the higher terrain -- aided by subtle large-scale ascent ahead of a midlevel low evident in water-vapor imagery. Over southern FL and the Keys, the 18Z MFL/KEY special soundings and latest VWP data corroborate earlier thinking regarding unfavorable deep-layer lapse rates and modest low-level hodograph curvature (despite gradually strengthening flow in the 0.5-1.5-km layer). These factors should continue to limit the overall organization/intensity of thunderstorms -- precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Discussion... Midday surface analysis shows a weak frontal zone draped generally east to west across the far southern part of the FL Peninsula and extending westward to a weak surface low 180 mi to the west of Naples, FL. This weak low, well to the east of Hurricane Milton, is forecast to develop over the Gulf Stream east of South FL later this evening. In the vicinity of this boundary where local backing of surface to 0.5 km flow exists, some augmentation of the hodograph may result in one or two transient cells exhibiting weak cyclonic shear over the Everglades and perhaps coastal South FL this afternoon. However, the very moist profile and poor lapse rates will favor outflow with the larger convective clusters. As such, will maintain no severe highlights this outlook update. A few thunderstorms may linger near the southern New England coast early this afternoon, with isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Fire-weather concerns should remain localized over much of the US. Drier air over parts of the Southeast/Gulf Coast may briefly overlap with gusty offshore flow associated with Hurricane Milton. However, this should remain isolated and no highlights are planned. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is poised to eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging becomes established across the central U.S., and another mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Though weak surface lee troughing may develop across the Plains states by afternoon, surface high pressure should dominate the Interior West, as well as the Mississippi Valley region and points east. Dry but cool surface conditions with a light and variable surface wind field should accompany areas experiencing high pressure, with wildfire-spread concerns remaining localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Fire-weather concerns should remain localized over much of the US. Drier air over parts of the Southeast/Gulf Coast may briefly overlap with gusty offshore flow associated with Hurricane Milton. However, this should remain isolated and no highlights are planned. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is poised to eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging becomes established across the central U.S., and another mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Though weak surface lee troughing may develop across the Plains states by afternoon, surface high pressure should dominate the Interior West, as well as the Mississippi Valley region and points east. Dry but cool surface conditions with a light and variable surface wind field should accompany areas experiencing high pressure, with wildfire-spread concerns remaining localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Fire-weather concerns should remain localized over much of the US. Drier air over parts of the Southeast/Gulf Coast may briefly overlap with gusty offshore flow associated with Hurricane Milton. However, this should remain isolated and no highlights are planned. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is poised to eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging becomes established across the central U.S., and another mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Though weak surface lee troughing may develop across the Plains states by afternoon, surface high pressure should dominate the Interior West, as well as the Mississippi Valley region and points east. Dry but cool surface conditions with a light and variable surface wind field should accompany areas experiencing high pressure, with wildfire-spread concerns remaining localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Fire-weather concerns should remain localized over much of the US. Drier air over parts of the Southeast/Gulf Coast may briefly overlap with gusty offshore flow associated with Hurricane Milton. However, this should remain isolated and no highlights are planned. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is poised to eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging becomes established across the central U.S., and another mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Though weak surface lee troughing may develop across the Plains states by afternoon, surface high pressure should dominate the Interior West, as well as the Mississippi Valley region and points east. Dry but cool surface conditions with a light and variable surface wind field should accompany areas experiencing high pressure, with wildfire-spread concerns remaining localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Fire-weather concerns should remain localized over much of the US. Drier air over parts of the Southeast/Gulf Coast may briefly overlap with gusty offshore flow associated with Hurricane Milton. However, this should remain isolated and no highlights are planned. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is poised to eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging becomes established across the central U.S., and another mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Though weak surface lee troughing may develop across the Plains states by afternoon, surface high pressure should dominate the Interior West, as well as the Mississippi Valley region and points east. Dry but cool surface conditions with a light and variable surface wind field should accompany areas experiencing high pressure, with wildfire-spread concerns remaining localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Fire-weather concerns should remain localized over much of the US. Drier air over parts of the Southeast/Gulf Coast may briefly overlap with gusty offshore flow associated with Hurricane Milton. However, this should remain isolated and no highlights are planned. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is poised to eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging becomes established across the central U.S., and another mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Though weak surface lee troughing may develop across the Plains states by afternoon, surface high pressure should dominate the Interior West, as well as the Mississippi Valley region and points east. Dry but cool surface conditions with a light and variable surface wind field should accompany areas experiencing high pressure, with wildfire-spread concerns remaining localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Fire-weather concerns should remain localized over much of the US. Drier air over parts of the Southeast/Gulf Coast may briefly overlap with gusty offshore flow associated with Hurricane Milton. However, this should remain isolated and no highlights are planned. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is poised to eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging becomes established across the central U.S., and another mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Though weak surface lee troughing may develop across the Plains states by afternoon, surface high pressure should dominate the Interior West, as well as the Mississippi Valley region and points east. Dry but cool surface conditions with a light and variable surface wind field should accompany areas experiencing high pressure, with wildfire-spread concerns remaining localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Fire-weather concerns should remain localized over much of the US. Drier air over parts of the Southeast/Gulf Coast may briefly overlap with gusty offshore flow associated with Hurricane Milton. However, this should remain isolated and no highlights are planned. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is poised to eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging becomes established across the central U.S., and another mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Though weak surface lee troughing may develop across the Plains states by afternoon, surface high pressure should dominate the Interior West, as well as the Mississippi Valley region and points east. Dry but cool surface conditions with a light and variable surface wind field should accompany areas experiencing high pressure, with wildfire-spread concerns remaining localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Florida... Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall along the west coast of Florida Wednesday evening, before moving offshore the east coast of Florida by early Thursday morning. Intense low to midlevel flow associated with the hurricane will overspread much of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys as the system tracks northeast through the period. Forecast soundings indicated enlarged low-level hodographs and SRH increasing to greater than 300 m2/s2 within the eastern semicircle of Milton. Mid-70s F dewpoints will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a few tornadoes will accompany convection within the rainbands of Milton. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Florida... Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall along the west coast of Florida Wednesday evening, before moving offshore the east coast of Florida by early Thursday morning. Intense low to midlevel flow associated with the hurricane will overspread much of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys as the system tracks northeast through the period. Forecast soundings indicated enlarged low-level hodographs and SRH increasing to greater than 300 m2/s2 within the eastern semicircle of Milton. Mid-70s F dewpoints will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a few tornadoes will accompany convection within the rainbands of Milton. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Florida... Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall along the west coast of Florida Wednesday evening, before moving offshore the east coast of Florida by early Thursday morning. Intense low to midlevel flow associated with the hurricane will overspread much of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys as the system tracks northeast through the period. Forecast soundings indicated enlarged low-level hodographs and SRH increasing to greater than 300 m2/s2 within the eastern semicircle of Milton. Mid-70s F dewpoints will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a few tornadoes will accompany convection within the rainbands of Milton. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Florida... Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall along the west coast of Florida Wednesday evening, before moving offshore the east coast of Florida by early Thursday morning. Intense low to midlevel flow associated with the hurricane will overspread much of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys as the system tracks northeast through the period. Forecast soundings indicated enlarged low-level hodographs and SRH increasing to greater than 300 m2/s2 within the eastern semicircle of Milton. Mid-70s F dewpoints will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a few tornadoes will accompany convection within the rainbands of Milton. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Florida... Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall along the west coast of Florida Wednesday evening, before moving offshore the east coast of Florida by early Thursday morning. Intense low to midlevel flow associated with the hurricane will overspread much of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys as the system tracks northeast through the period. Forecast soundings indicated enlarged low-level hodographs and SRH increasing to greater than 300 m2/s2 within the eastern semicircle of Milton. Mid-70s F dewpoints will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a few tornadoes will accompany convection within the rainbands of Milton. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Florida... Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall along the west coast of Florida Wednesday evening, before moving offshore the east coast of Florida by early Thursday morning. Intense low to midlevel flow associated with the hurricane will overspread much of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys as the system tracks northeast through the period. Forecast soundings indicated enlarged low-level hodographs and SRH increasing to greater than 300 m2/s2 within the eastern semicircle of Milton. Mid-70s F dewpoints will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a few tornadoes will accompany convection within the rainbands of Milton. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Florida... Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall along the west coast of Florida Wednesday evening, before moving offshore the east coast of Florida by early Thursday morning. Intense low to midlevel flow associated with the hurricane will overspread much of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys as the system tracks northeast through the period. Forecast soundings indicated enlarged low-level hodographs and SRH increasing to greater than 300 m2/s2 within the eastern semicircle of Milton. Mid-70s F dewpoints will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a few tornadoes will accompany convection within the rainbands of Milton. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071715
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located less than 150 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico have
continued to become better organized today. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for some additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while
the system moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast
of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, the
disturbance could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... No changes have been made to the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across parts of the FL Peninsula and Keys on Tuesday into early Wednesday. Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast on Tuesday, coming closer to the FL west coast by the end of period/Wednesday morning. As the system develops northeast across the eastern Gulf, strengthening low and midlevel southerly flow will overspread the Keys into the southern/central Peninsula, mainly after the 03z-06z time frame. As this occurs, low-level SRH will increase, resulting in enlarged and favorably curved hodographs and supporting rotation within cells in the far outer bands of Milton. Surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F are already in place, and will provide sufficient low-level instability to support the potential for a couple of tornadoes late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... No changes have been made to the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across parts of the FL Peninsula and Keys on Tuesday into early Wednesday. Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast on Tuesday, coming closer to the FL west coast by the end of period/Wednesday morning. As the system develops northeast across the eastern Gulf, strengthening low and midlevel southerly flow will overspread the Keys into the southern/central Peninsula, mainly after the 03z-06z time frame. As this occurs, low-level SRH will increase, resulting in enlarged and favorably curved hodographs and supporting rotation within cells in the far outer bands of Milton. Surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F are already in place, and will provide sufficient low-level instability to support the potential for a couple of tornadoes late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more