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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop tonight into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drift very slowly southeastward across eastern Canada, while the broad/surrounding cyclonic flow field resides across the northeastern quarter of the U.S. through the period. Farther to the west into the Plains and Intermountain region, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail. Meanwhile however, the main weather feature remains Hurricane Milton, which is forecast to shift northeastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the period. ...Portions of Florida and the Keys... Though Milton will remain over the open Gulf through the period, outer banding may begin to affect the Florida Peninsula and Keys as early as late tonight. Given that the deep-layer wind field will be increasing in response to the approach of the hurricane, low-level shear will become increasingly conducive for updraft rotation/tornado potential through the latter half of the period. Presuming that cells within Milton's outer banding reach Florida, local risk for brief tornadoes could evolve, within sustained/rotating convective elements. As such, will maintain level 1/MRGL risk across this area -- reflecting low tornado probability. Depending upon any adjustments to the track/intensity of Milton with time, corresponding adjustments to the tornado forecast may be required. For additional information regarding Milton, please refer to the latest forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop tonight into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drift very slowly southeastward across eastern Canada, while the broad/surrounding cyclonic flow field resides across the northeastern quarter of the U.S. through the period. Farther to the west into the Plains and Intermountain region, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail. Meanwhile however, the main weather feature remains Hurricane Milton, which is forecast to shift northeastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the period. ...Portions of Florida and the Keys... Though Milton will remain over the open Gulf through the period, outer banding may begin to affect the Florida Peninsula and Keys as early as late tonight. Given that the deep-layer wind field will be increasing in response to the approach of the hurricane, low-level shear will become increasingly conducive for updraft rotation/tornado potential through the latter half of the period. Presuming that cells within Milton's outer banding reach Florida, local risk for brief tornadoes could evolve, within sustained/rotating convective elements. As such, will maintain level 1/MRGL risk across this area -- reflecting low tornado probability. Depending upon any adjustments to the track/intensity of Milton with time, corresponding adjustments to the tornado forecast may be required. For additional information regarding Milton, please refer to the latest forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Showers and scattered thunderstorms persist early this evening in the vicinity of South Florida and the Keys, with a few flashes also ongoing in the vicinity of northern Lower Michigan. The most likely area for continuation of lightning-producing convection overnight remains across the Florida vicinity, though a few flashes may continue spreading southeastward across the Lake Huron and into the Lower Lakes area. A flash or two may also occur near the surface front across eastern North Carolina/northern South Carolina, where isolated showers are ongoing at this time. ..Goss.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Showers and scattered thunderstorms persist early this evening in the vicinity of South Florida and the Keys, with a few flashes also ongoing in the vicinity of northern Lower Michigan. The most likely area for continuation of lightning-producing convection overnight remains across the Florida vicinity, though a few flashes may continue spreading southeastward across the Lake Huron and into the Lower Lakes area. A flash or two may also occur near the surface front across eastern North Carolina/northern South Carolina, where isolated showers are ongoing at this time. ..Goss.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Showers and scattered thunderstorms persist early this evening in the vicinity of South Florida and the Keys, with a few flashes also ongoing in the vicinity of northern Lower Michigan. The most likely area for continuation of lightning-producing convection overnight remains across the Florida vicinity, though a few flashes may continue spreading southeastward across the Lake Huron and into the Lower Lakes area. A flash or two may also occur near the surface front across eastern North Carolina/northern South Carolina, where isolated showers are ongoing at this time. ..Goss.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Showers and scattered thunderstorms persist early this evening in the vicinity of South Florida and the Keys, with a few flashes also ongoing in the vicinity of northern Lower Michigan. The most likely area for continuation of lightning-producing convection overnight remains across the Florida vicinity, though a few flashes may continue spreading southeastward across the Lake Huron and into the Lower Lakes area. A flash or two may also occur near the surface front across eastern North Carolina/northern South Carolina, where isolated showers are ongoing at this time. ..Goss.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Showers and scattered thunderstorms persist early this evening in the vicinity of South Florida and the Keys, with a few flashes also ongoing in the vicinity of northern Lower Michigan. The most likely area for continuation of lightning-producing convection overnight remains across the Florida vicinity, though a few flashes may continue spreading southeastward across the Lake Huron and into the Lower Lakes area. A flash or two may also occur near the surface front across eastern North Carolina/northern South Carolina, where isolated showers are ongoing at this time. ..Goss.. 10/08/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072335
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located less than 150 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico have
changed little in organization this afternoon. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for some additional development and only
a small increase in organization could result in the formation of a
tropical depression tonight or tomorrow. The system is forecast to
move slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico.
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance
could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 7 22:06:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 7 22:06:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns over the CONUS through the extended forecast period is low. A relatively stagnant mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue through the next several days. High pressure will continue to intensify and expand eastward over the central CONUS through midweek, shunting stronger westerly flow aloft northward. This should limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions through midweek. By D4/Thursday, the upper ridge will begin to weaken as stronger westerly flow returns over the Northwest and Northern Rockies. Troughing will approach the West Coast, supporting some increase in surface winds across the West. Occasional gusty winds and pockets of lower humidity could also develop in the northern Rockies/Plains as a dry cold front moves across the western US. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting some elevated fire-weather concerns. Low-end fire-weather risk may continue into the weekend as the cold front progresses, concurrent with the ridge reintensifying. This will likely limit the overlap of strong winds within the dry/warm air mass, supporting only modest potential for widespread critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns over the CONUS through the extended forecast period is low. A relatively stagnant mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue through the next several days. High pressure will continue to intensify and expand eastward over the central CONUS through midweek, shunting stronger westerly flow aloft northward. This should limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions through midweek. By D4/Thursday, the upper ridge will begin to weaken as stronger westerly flow returns over the Northwest and Northern Rockies. Troughing will approach the West Coast, supporting some increase in surface winds across the West. Occasional gusty winds and pockets of lower humidity could also develop in the northern Rockies/Plains as a dry cold front moves across the western US. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting some elevated fire-weather concerns. Low-end fire-weather risk may continue into the weekend as the cold front progresses, concurrent with the ridge reintensifying. This will likely limit the overlap of strong winds within the dry/warm air mass, supporting only modest potential for widespread critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns over the CONUS through the extended forecast period is low. A relatively stagnant mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue through the next several days. High pressure will continue to intensify and expand eastward over the central CONUS through midweek, shunting stronger westerly flow aloft northward. This should limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions through midweek. By D4/Thursday, the upper ridge will begin to weaken as stronger westerly flow returns over the Northwest and Northern Rockies. Troughing will approach the West Coast, supporting some increase in surface winds across the West. Occasional gusty winds and pockets of lower humidity could also develop in the northern Rockies/Plains as a dry cold front moves across the western US. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting some elevated fire-weather concerns. Low-end fire-weather risk may continue into the weekend as the cold front progresses, concurrent with the ridge reintensifying. This will likely limit the overlap of strong winds within the dry/warm air mass, supporting only modest potential for widespread critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns over the CONUS through the extended forecast period is low. A relatively stagnant mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue through the next several days. High pressure will continue to intensify and expand eastward over the central CONUS through midweek, shunting stronger westerly flow aloft northward. This should limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions through midweek. By D4/Thursday, the upper ridge will begin to weaken as stronger westerly flow returns over the Northwest and Northern Rockies. Troughing will approach the West Coast, supporting some increase in surface winds across the West. Occasional gusty winds and pockets of lower humidity could also develop in the northern Rockies/Plains as a dry cold front moves across the western US. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting some elevated fire-weather concerns. Low-end fire-weather risk may continue into the weekend as the cold front progresses, concurrent with the ridge reintensifying. This will likely limit the overlap of strong winds within the dry/warm air mass, supporting only modest potential for widespread critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns over the CONUS through the extended forecast period is low. A relatively stagnant mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue through the next several days. High pressure will continue to intensify and expand eastward over the central CONUS through midweek, shunting stronger westerly flow aloft northward. This should limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions through midweek. By D4/Thursday, the upper ridge will begin to weaken as stronger westerly flow returns over the Northwest and Northern Rockies. Troughing will approach the West Coast, supporting some increase in surface winds across the West. Occasional gusty winds and pockets of lower humidity could also develop in the northern Rockies/Plains as a dry cold front moves across the western US. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting some elevated fire-weather concerns. Low-end fire-weather risk may continue into the weekend as the cold front progresses, concurrent with the ridge reintensifying. This will likely limit the overlap of strong winds within the dry/warm air mass, supporting only modest potential for widespread critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A General Thunderstorm area was added for portions of the TX Trans-Pecos, where widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over the higher terrain -- aided by subtle large-scale ascent ahead of a midlevel low evident in water-vapor imagery. Over southern FL and the Keys, the 18Z MFL/KEY special soundings and latest VWP data corroborate earlier thinking regarding unfavorable deep-layer lapse rates and modest low-level hodograph curvature (despite gradually strengthening flow in the 0.5-1.5-km layer). These factors should continue to limit the overall organization/intensity of thunderstorms -- precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Discussion... Midday surface analysis shows a weak frontal zone draped generally east to west across the far southern part of the FL Peninsula and extending westward to a weak surface low 180 mi to the west of Naples, FL. This weak low, well to the east of Hurricane Milton, is forecast to develop over the Gulf Stream east of South FL later this evening. In the vicinity of this boundary where local backing of surface to 0.5 km flow exists, some augmentation of the hodograph may result in one or two transient cells exhibiting weak cyclonic shear over the Everglades and perhaps coastal South FL this afternoon. However, the very moist profile and poor lapse rates will favor outflow with the larger convective clusters. As such, will maintain no severe highlights this outlook update. A few thunderstorms may linger near the southern New England coast early this afternoon, with isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A General Thunderstorm area was added for portions of the TX Trans-Pecos, where widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over the higher terrain -- aided by subtle large-scale ascent ahead of a midlevel low evident in water-vapor imagery. Over southern FL and the Keys, the 18Z MFL/KEY special soundings and latest VWP data corroborate earlier thinking regarding unfavorable deep-layer lapse rates and modest low-level hodograph curvature (despite gradually strengthening flow in the 0.5-1.5-km layer). These factors should continue to limit the overall organization/intensity of thunderstorms -- precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Discussion... Midday surface analysis shows a weak frontal zone draped generally east to west across the far southern part of the FL Peninsula and extending westward to a weak surface low 180 mi to the west of Naples, FL. This weak low, well to the east of Hurricane Milton, is forecast to develop over the Gulf Stream east of South FL later this evening. In the vicinity of this boundary where local backing of surface to 0.5 km flow exists, some augmentation of the hodograph may result in one or two transient cells exhibiting weak cyclonic shear over the Everglades and perhaps coastal South FL this afternoon. However, the very moist profile and poor lapse rates will favor outflow with the larger convective clusters. As such, will maintain no severe highlights this outlook update. A few thunderstorms may linger near the southern New England coast early this afternoon, with isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A General Thunderstorm area was added for portions of the TX Trans-Pecos, where widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over the higher terrain -- aided by subtle large-scale ascent ahead of a midlevel low evident in water-vapor imagery. Over southern FL and the Keys, the 18Z MFL/KEY special soundings and latest VWP data corroborate earlier thinking regarding unfavorable deep-layer lapse rates and modest low-level hodograph curvature (despite gradually strengthening flow in the 0.5-1.5-km layer). These factors should continue to limit the overall organization/intensity of thunderstorms -- precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Discussion... Midday surface analysis shows a weak frontal zone draped generally east to west across the far southern part of the FL Peninsula and extending westward to a weak surface low 180 mi to the west of Naples, FL. This weak low, well to the east of Hurricane Milton, is forecast to develop over the Gulf Stream east of South FL later this evening. In the vicinity of this boundary where local backing of surface to 0.5 km flow exists, some augmentation of the hodograph may result in one or two transient cells exhibiting weak cyclonic shear over the Everglades and perhaps coastal South FL this afternoon. However, the very moist profile and poor lapse rates will favor outflow with the larger convective clusters. As such, will maintain no severe highlights this outlook update. A few thunderstorms may linger near the southern New England coast early this afternoon, with isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A General Thunderstorm area was added for portions of the TX Trans-Pecos, where widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over the higher terrain -- aided by subtle large-scale ascent ahead of a midlevel low evident in water-vapor imagery. Over southern FL and the Keys, the 18Z MFL/KEY special soundings and latest VWP data corroborate earlier thinking regarding unfavorable deep-layer lapse rates and modest low-level hodograph curvature (despite gradually strengthening flow in the 0.5-1.5-km layer). These factors should continue to limit the overall organization/intensity of thunderstorms -- precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Discussion... Midday surface analysis shows a weak frontal zone draped generally east to west across the far southern part of the FL Peninsula and extending westward to a weak surface low 180 mi to the west of Naples, FL. This weak low, well to the east of Hurricane Milton, is forecast to develop over the Gulf Stream east of South FL later this evening. In the vicinity of this boundary where local backing of surface to 0.5 km flow exists, some augmentation of the hodograph may result in one or two transient cells exhibiting weak cyclonic shear over the Everglades and perhaps coastal South FL this afternoon. However, the very moist profile and poor lapse rates will favor outflow with the larger convective clusters. As such, will maintain no severe highlights this outlook update. A few thunderstorms may linger near the southern New England coast early this afternoon, with isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A General Thunderstorm area was added for portions of the TX Trans-Pecos, where widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over the higher terrain -- aided by subtle large-scale ascent ahead of a midlevel low evident in water-vapor imagery. Over southern FL and the Keys, the 18Z MFL/KEY special soundings and latest VWP data corroborate earlier thinking regarding unfavorable deep-layer lapse rates and modest low-level hodograph curvature (despite gradually strengthening flow in the 0.5-1.5-km layer). These factors should continue to limit the overall organization/intensity of thunderstorms -- precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Discussion... Midday surface analysis shows a weak frontal zone draped generally east to west across the far southern part of the FL Peninsula and extending westward to a weak surface low 180 mi to the west of Naples, FL. This weak low, well to the east of Hurricane Milton, is forecast to develop over the Gulf Stream east of South FL later this evening. In the vicinity of this boundary where local backing of surface to 0.5 km flow exists, some augmentation of the hodograph may result in one or two transient cells exhibiting weak cyclonic shear over the Everglades and perhaps coastal South FL this afternoon. However, the very moist profile and poor lapse rates will favor outflow with the larger convective clusters. As such, will maintain no severe highlights this outlook update. A few thunderstorms may linger near the southern New England coast early this afternoon, with isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. Read more