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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... No changes have been made to the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across parts of the FL Peninsula and Keys on Tuesday into early Wednesday. Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast on Tuesday, coming closer to the FL west coast by the end of period/Wednesday morning. As the system develops northeast across the eastern Gulf, strengthening low and midlevel southerly flow will overspread the Keys into the southern/central Peninsula, mainly after the 03z-06z time frame. As this occurs, low-level SRH will increase, resulting in enlarged and favorably curved hodographs and supporting rotation within cells in the far outer bands of Milton. Surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F are already in place, and will provide sufficient low-level instability to support the potential for a couple of tornadoes late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... No changes have been made to the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across parts of the FL Peninsula and Keys on Tuesday into early Wednesday. Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast on Tuesday, coming closer to the FL west coast by the end of period/Wednesday morning. As the system develops northeast across the eastern Gulf, strengthening low and midlevel southerly flow will overspread the Keys into the southern/central Peninsula, mainly after the 03z-06z time frame. As this occurs, low-level SRH will increase, resulting in enlarged and favorably curved hodographs and supporting rotation within cells in the far outer bands of Milton. Surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F are already in place, and will provide sufficient low-level instability to support the potential for a couple of tornadoes late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... No changes have been made to the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across parts of the FL Peninsula and Keys on Tuesday into early Wednesday. Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast on Tuesday, coming closer to the FL west coast by the end of period/Wednesday morning. As the system develops northeast across the eastern Gulf, strengthening low and midlevel southerly flow will overspread the Keys into the southern/central Peninsula, mainly after the 03z-06z time frame. As this occurs, low-level SRH will increase, resulting in enlarged and favorably curved hodographs and supporting rotation within cells in the far outer bands of Milton. Surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F are already in place, and will provide sufficient low-level instability to support the potential for a couple of tornadoes late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... No changes have been made to the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across parts of the FL Peninsula and Keys on Tuesday into early Wednesday. Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast on Tuesday, coming closer to the FL west coast by the end of period/Wednesday morning. As the system develops northeast across the eastern Gulf, strengthening low and midlevel southerly flow will overspread the Keys into the southern/central Peninsula, mainly after the 03z-06z time frame. As this occurs, low-level SRH will increase, resulting in enlarged and favorably curved hodographs and supporting rotation within cells in the far outer bands of Milton. Surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F are already in place, and will provide sufficient low-level instability to support the potential for a couple of tornadoes late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... No changes have been made to the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across parts of the FL Peninsula and Keys on Tuesday into early Wednesday. Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast on Tuesday, coming closer to the FL west coast by the end of period/Wednesday morning. As the system develops northeast across the eastern Gulf, strengthening low and midlevel southerly flow will overspread the Keys into the southern/central Peninsula, mainly after the 03z-06z time frame. As this occurs, low-level SRH will increase, resulting in enlarged and favorably curved hodographs and supporting rotation within cells in the far outer bands of Milton. Surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F are already in place, and will provide sufficient low-level instability to support the potential for a couple of tornadoes late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... No changes have been made to the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across parts of the FL Peninsula and Keys on Tuesday into early Wednesday. Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast on Tuesday, coming closer to the FL west coast by the end of period/Wednesday morning. As the system develops northeast across the eastern Gulf, strengthening low and midlevel southerly flow will overspread the Keys into the southern/central Peninsula, mainly after the 03z-06z time frame. As this occurs, low-level SRH will increase, resulting in enlarged and favorably curved hodographs and supporting rotation within cells in the far outer bands of Milton. Surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F are already in place, and will provide sufficient low-level instability to support the potential for a couple of tornadoes late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic coastline while upper ridging builds across the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure will overspread much of the CONUS, promoting dry but cool conditions and relatively weak surface wind fields. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., with any wildfire-growth potential likely remaining localized. Some Elevated-equivalent fire weather surface conditions are possible along the Wyoming/Colorado border by afternoon heating (driven by downslope flow). However, these conditions should not persist long enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic coastline while upper ridging builds across the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure will overspread much of the CONUS, promoting dry but cool conditions and relatively weak surface wind fields. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., with any wildfire-growth potential likely remaining localized. Some Elevated-equivalent fire weather surface conditions are possible along the Wyoming/Colorado border by afternoon heating (driven by downslope flow). However, these conditions should not persist long enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic coastline while upper ridging builds across the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure will overspread much of the CONUS, promoting dry but cool conditions and relatively weak surface wind fields. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., with any wildfire-growth potential likely remaining localized. Some Elevated-equivalent fire weather surface conditions are possible along the Wyoming/Colorado border by afternoon heating (driven by downslope flow). However, these conditions should not persist long enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic coastline while upper ridging builds across the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure will overspread much of the CONUS, promoting dry but cool conditions and relatively weak surface wind fields. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., with any wildfire-growth potential likely remaining localized. Some Elevated-equivalent fire weather surface conditions are possible along the Wyoming/Colorado border by afternoon heating (driven by downslope flow). However, these conditions should not persist long enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic coastline while upper ridging builds across the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure will overspread much of the CONUS, promoting dry but cool conditions and relatively weak surface wind fields. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., with any wildfire-growth potential likely remaining localized. Some Elevated-equivalent fire weather surface conditions are possible along the Wyoming/Colorado border by afternoon heating (driven by downslope flow). However, these conditions should not persist long enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic coastline while upper ridging builds across the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure will overspread much of the CONUS, promoting dry but cool conditions and relatively weak surface wind fields. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., with any wildfire-growth potential likely remaining localized. Some Elevated-equivalent fire weather surface conditions are possible along the Wyoming/Colorado border by afternoon heating (driven by downslope flow). However, these conditions should not persist long enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic coastline while upper ridging builds across the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure will overspread much of the CONUS, promoting dry but cool conditions and relatively weak surface wind fields. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., with any wildfire-growth potential likely remaining localized. Some Elevated-equivalent fire weather surface conditions are possible along the Wyoming/Colorado border by afternoon heating (driven by downslope flow). However, these conditions should not persist long enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... Midday surface analysis shows a weak frontal zone draped generally east to west across the far southern part of the FL Peninsula and extending westward to a weak surface low 180 mi to the west of Naples, FL. This weak low, well to the east of Hurricane Milton, is forecast to develop over the Gulf Stream east of South FL later this evening. In the vicinity of this boundary where local backing of surface to 0.5 km flow exists, some augmentation of the hodograph may result in one or two transient cells exhibiting weak cyclonic shear over the Everglades and perhaps coastal South FL this afternoon. However, the very moist profile and poor lapse rates will favor outflow with the larger convective clusters. As such, will maintain no severe highlights this outlook update. A few thunderstorms may linger near the southern New England coast early this afternoon, with isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. ..Smith/Wendt.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... Midday surface analysis shows a weak frontal zone draped generally east to west across the far southern part of the FL Peninsula and extending westward to a weak surface low 180 mi to the west of Naples, FL. This weak low, well to the east of Hurricane Milton, is forecast to develop over the Gulf Stream east of South FL later this evening. In the vicinity of this boundary where local backing of surface to 0.5 km flow exists, some augmentation of the hodograph may result in one or two transient cells exhibiting weak cyclonic shear over the Everglades and perhaps coastal South FL this afternoon. However, the very moist profile and poor lapse rates will favor outflow with the larger convective clusters. As such, will maintain no severe highlights this outlook update. A few thunderstorms may linger near the southern New England coast early this afternoon, with isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. ..Smith/Wendt.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... Midday surface analysis shows a weak frontal zone draped generally east to west across the far southern part of the FL Peninsula and extending westward to a weak surface low 180 mi to the west of Naples, FL. This weak low, well to the east of Hurricane Milton, is forecast to develop over the Gulf Stream east of South FL later this evening. In the vicinity of this boundary where local backing of surface to 0.5 km flow exists, some augmentation of the hodograph may result in one or two transient cells exhibiting weak cyclonic shear over the Everglades and perhaps coastal South FL this afternoon. However, the very moist profile and poor lapse rates will favor outflow with the larger convective clusters. As such, will maintain no severe highlights this outlook update. A few thunderstorms may linger near the southern New England coast early this afternoon, with isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. ..Smith/Wendt.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... Midday surface analysis shows a weak frontal zone draped generally east to west across the far southern part of the FL Peninsula and extending westward to a weak surface low 180 mi to the west of Naples, FL. This weak low, well to the east of Hurricane Milton, is forecast to develop over the Gulf Stream east of South FL later this evening. In the vicinity of this boundary where local backing of surface to 0.5 km flow exists, some augmentation of the hodograph may result in one or two transient cells exhibiting weak cyclonic shear over the Everglades and perhaps coastal South FL this afternoon. However, the very moist profile and poor lapse rates will favor outflow with the larger convective clusters. As such, will maintain no severe highlights this outlook update. A few thunderstorms may linger near the southern New England coast early this afternoon, with isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. ..Smith/Wendt.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... Midday surface analysis shows a weak frontal zone draped generally east to west across the far southern part of the FL Peninsula and extending westward to a weak surface low 180 mi to the west of Naples, FL. This weak low, well to the east of Hurricane Milton, is forecast to develop over the Gulf Stream east of South FL later this evening. In the vicinity of this boundary where local backing of surface to 0.5 km flow exists, some augmentation of the hodograph may result in one or two transient cells exhibiting weak cyclonic shear over the Everglades and perhaps coastal South FL this afternoon. However, the very moist profile and poor lapse rates will favor outflow with the larger convective clusters. As such, will maintain no severe highlights this outlook update. A few thunderstorms may linger near the southern New England coast early this afternoon, with isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. ..Smith/Wendt.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... Midday surface analysis shows a weak frontal zone draped generally east to west across the far southern part of the FL Peninsula and extending westward to a weak surface low 180 mi to the west of Naples, FL. This weak low, well to the east of Hurricane Milton, is forecast to develop over the Gulf Stream east of South FL later this evening. In the vicinity of this boundary where local backing of surface to 0.5 km flow exists, some augmentation of the hodograph may result in one or two transient cells exhibiting weak cyclonic shear over the Everglades and perhaps coastal South FL this afternoon. However, the very moist profile and poor lapse rates will favor outflow with the larger convective clusters. As such, will maintain no severe highlights this outlook update. A few thunderstorms may linger near the southern New England coast early this afternoon, with isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. ..Smith/Wendt.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Greatest thunderstorm potential today should exist across south FL and the Keys, along and south of a ill-defined front draped across the FL Peninsula. A weak surface low is present over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning, and it is forecast to redevelop off the southeast FL Coast by this evening. Some modest enhancement to the low-level flow should occur through the day over south FL and vicinity, but poor lapse rates should hinder robust updrafts even as daytime heating occurs. While occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible with any convection that can develop in this regime, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include any probabilities at this time. Otherwise, thunderstorms will continue moving eastward across parts of southern New England this morning ahead of a front, with additional isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/07/2024 Read more