Aggregator

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the western New York and Pennsylvania into West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period over central Ontario, with enhanced mid-level flow extending throughout the base of this system from the Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress quickly eastward/northeastward within this belt of stronger flow, helping to pull the cyclone eastward while also inducing a negative tilt to the system. By early Sunday, upper troughing will likely extend from the Ontario/Quebec border southeastward into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday, with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. A narrow corridor of low 60s dewpoints is anticipated just ahead of the cold front, which is expected to combine with cooling mid-level temperatures and foster modest buoyancy. Initial thunderstorm development along the front is anticipated across eastern OH, where a favorable combination of daytime heating and low-level moisture will destabilize the pre-frontal airmass. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend across the region as well, which should allow updrafts to stay ahead of the quick-moving cold front for at least a few hours. Cold mid-level temperatures and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will support a hail risk with the strongest updrafts, particularly with initial development. Bowing line segments will contribute to a threat for damaging gusts as well. Surface winds will likely veer ahead of the front, limiting the low-level curvature. Even so, forecast soundings show southwesterlies strengthening from 15 kt at the surface to 40 kt at 700 mb, which does result in enough storm-relative helicity for some tornado potential if a discrete mode can be maintained. ...Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula... Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low. ..Mosier.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this evening. ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will remain generally weak over the southern half of the U.S. today, where upper ridging will prevail. This ridging will -- however -- be interrupted by an elongated/weak trough comprised of several smaller-scale vorticity maxima, extending from the southeastern states west-southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico to northern Mexico. Farther north, a faster belt of westerly flow will prevail, with an embedded/potent short-wave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains through the day, and then the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes region overnight. Accompanying the upper trough, a surface low is forecast to advance east-northeastward across the Canadian Prairie, and into northwestern Ontario through latter stages of the period. A trailing cold front will shift eastward across the north-central U.S. and southward across the Plains -- reaching a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Ozarks, and then west-southwestward across Oklahoma to Far West Texas by Sunday morning. ...Central and northern Wisconsin north to Lake Michigan... As a cold front advances across the Upper Midwest area through the afternoon, a capped boundary layer should hinder convective development. As the boundary crosses the Upper Mississippi Valley around sunset, and the upper system advances, the combination of strong ascent and steepening lapse rates aloft should permit eventual development of showers and scattered thunderstorms. With a rather dry -- and nocturnally stabilizing -- boundary layer expected ahead of the front, convection should evolve within a slightly elevated but amply unstable layer. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for organized/rotating storms -- and thus risk for hail is evident. Additionally, the strongly dynamic upper system/strong mass response suggests potential for downward transport of strong flow aloft -- potentially manifesting as severe-caliber wind gusts at the surface. Given the overall severe risk, will introduce a small SLGT/level 2 risk across this area, with the primary risk expected to be hail. However, potential for strong/gusty surface winds may also -- depending upon boundary-layer evolution -- warrant upgrade to 15% probability in later outlooks. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this evening. ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will remain generally weak over the southern half of the U.S. today, where upper ridging will prevail. This ridging will -- however -- be interrupted by an elongated/weak trough comprised of several smaller-scale vorticity maxima, extending from the southeastern states west-southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico to northern Mexico. Farther north, a faster belt of westerly flow will prevail, with an embedded/potent short-wave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains through the day, and then the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes region overnight. Accompanying the upper trough, a surface low is forecast to advance east-northeastward across the Canadian Prairie, and into northwestern Ontario through latter stages of the period. A trailing cold front will shift eastward across the north-central U.S. and southward across the Plains -- reaching a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Ozarks, and then west-southwestward across Oklahoma to Far West Texas by Sunday morning. ...Central and northern Wisconsin north to Lake Michigan... As a cold front advances across the Upper Midwest area through the afternoon, a capped boundary layer should hinder convective development. As the boundary crosses the Upper Mississippi Valley around sunset, and the upper system advances, the combination of strong ascent and steepening lapse rates aloft should permit eventual development of showers and scattered thunderstorms. With a rather dry -- and nocturnally stabilizing -- boundary layer expected ahead of the front, convection should evolve within a slightly elevated but amply unstable layer. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for organized/rotating storms -- and thus risk for hail is evident. Additionally, the strongly dynamic upper system/strong mass response suggests potential for downward transport of strong flow aloft -- potentially manifesting as severe-caliber wind gusts at the surface. Given the overall severe risk, will introduce a small SLGT/level 2 risk across this area, with the primary risk expected to be hail. However, potential for strong/gusty surface winds may also -- depending upon boundary-layer evolution -- warrant upgrade to 15% probability in later outlooks. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this evening. ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will remain generally weak over the southern half of the U.S. today, where upper ridging will prevail. This ridging will -- however -- be interrupted by an elongated/weak trough comprised of several smaller-scale vorticity maxima, extending from the southeastern states west-southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico to northern Mexico. Farther north, a faster belt of westerly flow will prevail, with an embedded/potent short-wave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains through the day, and then the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes region overnight. Accompanying the upper trough, a surface low is forecast to advance east-northeastward across the Canadian Prairie, and into northwestern Ontario through latter stages of the period. A trailing cold front will shift eastward across the north-central U.S. and southward across the Plains -- reaching a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Ozarks, and then west-southwestward across Oklahoma to Far West Texas by Sunday morning. ...Central and northern Wisconsin north to Lake Michigan... As a cold front advances across the Upper Midwest area through the afternoon, a capped boundary layer should hinder convective development. As the boundary crosses the Upper Mississippi Valley around sunset, and the upper system advances, the combination of strong ascent and steepening lapse rates aloft should permit eventual development of showers and scattered thunderstorms. With a rather dry -- and nocturnally stabilizing -- boundary layer expected ahead of the front, convection should evolve within a slightly elevated but amply unstable layer. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for organized/rotating storms -- and thus risk for hail is evident. Additionally, the strongly dynamic upper system/strong mass response suggests potential for downward transport of strong flow aloft -- potentially manifesting as severe-caliber wind gusts at the surface. Given the overall severe risk, will introduce a small SLGT/level 2 risk across this area, with the primary risk expected to be hail. However, potential for strong/gusty surface winds may also -- depending upon boundary-layer evolution -- warrant upgrade to 15% probability in later outlooks. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this evening. ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will remain generally weak over the southern half of the U.S. today, where upper ridging will prevail. This ridging will -- however -- be interrupted by an elongated/weak trough comprised of several smaller-scale vorticity maxima, extending from the southeastern states west-southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico to northern Mexico. Farther north, a faster belt of westerly flow will prevail, with an embedded/potent short-wave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains through the day, and then the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes region overnight. Accompanying the upper trough, a surface low is forecast to advance east-northeastward across the Canadian Prairie, and into northwestern Ontario through latter stages of the period. A trailing cold front will shift eastward across the north-central U.S. and southward across the Plains -- reaching a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Ozarks, and then west-southwestward across Oklahoma to Far West Texas by Sunday morning. ...Central and northern Wisconsin north to Lake Michigan... As a cold front advances across the Upper Midwest area through the afternoon, a capped boundary layer should hinder convective development. As the boundary crosses the Upper Mississippi Valley around sunset, and the upper system advances, the combination of strong ascent and steepening lapse rates aloft should permit eventual development of showers and scattered thunderstorms. With a rather dry -- and nocturnally stabilizing -- boundary layer expected ahead of the front, convection should evolve within a slightly elevated but amply unstable layer. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for organized/rotating storms -- and thus risk for hail is evident. Additionally, the strongly dynamic upper system/strong mass response suggests potential for downward transport of strong flow aloft -- potentially manifesting as severe-caliber wind gusts at the surface. Given the overall severe risk, will introduce a small SLGT/level 2 risk across this area, with the primary risk expected to be hail. However, potential for strong/gusty surface winds may also -- depending upon boundary-layer evolution -- warrant upgrade to 15% probability in later outlooks. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this evening. ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will remain generally weak over the southern half of the U.S. today, where upper ridging will prevail. This ridging will -- however -- be interrupted by an elongated/weak trough comprised of several smaller-scale vorticity maxima, extending from the southeastern states west-southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico to northern Mexico. Farther north, a faster belt of westerly flow will prevail, with an embedded/potent short-wave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains through the day, and then the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes region overnight. Accompanying the upper trough, a surface low is forecast to advance east-northeastward across the Canadian Prairie, and into northwestern Ontario through latter stages of the period. A trailing cold front will shift eastward across the north-central U.S. and southward across the Plains -- reaching a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Ozarks, and then west-southwestward across Oklahoma to Far West Texas by Sunday morning. ...Central and northern Wisconsin north to Lake Michigan... As a cold front advances across the Upper Midwest area through the afternoon, a capped boundary layer should hinder convective development. As the boundary crosses the Upper Mississippi Valley around sunset, and the upper system advances, the combination of strong ascent and steepening lapse rates aloft should permit eventual development of showers and scattered thunderstorms. With a rather dry -- and nocturnally stabilizing -- boundary layer expected ahead of the front, convection should evolve within a slightly elevated but amply unstable layer. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for organized/rotating storms -- and thus risk for hail is evident. Additionally, the strongly dynamic upper system/strong mass response suggests potential for downward transport of strong flow aloft -- potentially manifesting as severe-caliber wind gusts at the surface. Given the overall severe risk, will introduce a small SLGT/level 2 risk across this area, with the primary risk expected to be hail. However, potential for strong/gusty surface winds may also -- depending upon boundary-layer evolution -- warrant upgrade to 15% probability in later outlooks. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this evening. ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will remain generally weak over the southern half of the U.S. today, where upper ridging will prevail. This ridging will -- however -- be interrupted by an elongated/weak trough comprised of several smaller-scale vorticity maxima, extending from the southeastern states west-southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico to northern Mexico. Farther north, a faster belt of westerly flow will prevail, with an embedded/potent short-wave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains through the day, and then the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes region overnight. Accompanying the upper trough, a surface low is forecast to advance east-northeastward across the Canadian Prairie, and into northwestern Ontario through latter stages of the period. A trailing cold front will shift eastward across the north-central U.S. and southward across the Plains -- reaching a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Ozarks, and then west-southwestward across Oklahoma to Far West Texas by Sunday morning. ...Central and northern Wisconsin north to Lake Michigan... As a cold front advances across the Upper Midwest area through the afternoon, a capped boundary layer should hinder convective development. As the boundary crosses the Upper Mississippi Valley around sunset, and the upper system advances, the combination of strong ascent and steepening lapse rates aloft should permit eventual development of showers and scattered thunderstorms. With a rather dry -- and nocturnally stabilizing -- boundary layer expected ahead of the front, convection should evolve within a slightly elevated but amply unstable layer. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for organized/rotating storms -- and thus risk for hail is evident. Additionally, the strongly dynamic upper system/strong mass response suggests potential for downward transport of strong flow aloft -- potentially manifesting as severe-caliber wind gusts at the surface. Given the overall severe risk, will introduce a small SLGT/level 2 risk across this area, with the primary risk expected to be hail. However, potential for strong/gusty surface winds may also -- depending upon boundary-layer evolution -- warrant upgrade to 15% probability in later outlooks. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

906
ABPZ20 KNHC 050513
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly
northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Convection generally continues to diurnally diminish across the Appalachians region, and across the Gulf Coast/southeastern Atlantic Coast states this evening. Thunderstorms persist at this time across Deep South Texas, near the Florida Gulf Coast, and -- to a lesser/more isolated degree -- across the open Gulf. Through the end of the period, lightning should remain confined to these same areas. No severe weather is expected. ..Goss.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Convection generally continues to diurnally diminish across the Appalachians region, and across the Gulf Coast/southeastern Atlantic Coast states this evening. Thunderstorms persist at this time across Deep South Texas, near the Florida Gulf Coast, and -- to a lesser/more isolated degree -- across the open Gulf. Through the end of the period, lightning should remain confined to these same areas. No severe weather is expected. ..Goss.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Convection generally continues to diurnally diminish across the Appalachians region, and across the Gulf Coast/southeastern Atlantic Coast states this evening. Thunderstorms persist at this time across Deep South Texas, near the Florida Gulf Coast, and -- to a lesser/more isolated degree -- across the open Gulf. Through the end of the period, lightning should remain confined to these same areas. No severe weather is expected. ..Goss.. 10/05/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042346
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited
and disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Atmospheric
conditions are becoming less conducive and further development is
not expected as the low moves slowly northward and northeastward
over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the weekend or early part of next week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle part
of next week while the system drifts slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 4 22:12:02 UTC 2024.