Aggregator

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Greatest thunderstorm potential today should exist across south FL and the Keys, along and south of a ill-defined front draped across the FL Peninsula. A weak surface low is present over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning, and it is forecast to redevelop off the southeast FL Coast by this evening. Some modest enhancement to the low-level flow should occur through the day over south FL and vicinity, but poor lapse rates should hinder robust updrafts even as daytime heating occurs. While occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible with any convection that can develop in this regime, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include any probabilities at this time. Otherwise, thunderstorms will continue moving eastward across parts of southern New England this morning ahead of a front, with additional isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Greatest thunderstorm potential today should exist across south FL and the Keys, along and south of a ill-defined front draped across the FL Peninsula. A weak surface low is present over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning, and it is forecast to redevelop off the southeast FL Coast by this evening. Some modest enhancement to the low-level flow should occur through the day over south FL and vicinity, but poor lapse rates should hinder robust updrafts even as daytime heating occurs. While occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible with any convection that can develop in this regime, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include any probabilities at this time. Otherwise, thunderstorms will continue moving eastward across parts of southern New England this morning ahead of a front, with additional isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Greatest thunderstorm potential today should exist across south FL and the Keys, along and south of a ill-defined front draped across the FL Peninsula. A weak surface low is present over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning, and it is forecast to redevelop off the southeast FL Coast by this evening. Some modest enhancement to the low-level flow should occur through the day over south FL and vicinity, but poor lapse rates should hinder robust updrafts even as daytime heating occurs. While occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible with any convection that can develop in this regime, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include any probabilities at this time. Otherwise, thunderstorms will continue moving eastward across parts of southern New England this morning ahead of a front, with additional isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/07/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 125 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico have
increased during the past several hours, but remain disorganized.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form in the next day or two while it moves slowly west-northwestward
or northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance could
bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center places Hurricane Milton just off the east-central FL Coast early D4/Thursday morning. This system is expected to interact with a larger scale upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS throughout the day on D4/Thursday, causing it to eject quickly northeastward into the Atlantic. Upper ridging will likely be in place from the Southwest into the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Thursday, and this ridging is expected to shift eastward in the wake of the eastern CONUS troughing. Some dampening of this ridge is possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday as a shortwave trough progresses throughout its northern periphery across central Canada and Ontario/Upper Great Lakes. The northern stream is expected to stay fairly active during the weekend, with another shortwave trough likely dropping from the Canadian Prairies and Great Lakes on D7/Sunday. Any stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the better low-level moisture on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Some moisture return into the Mid MS and OH Valleys is possible on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, ahead of a potential cold front that is currently expected to move through on D7/Sunday. Current guidance suggest the moisture return will be limited, tempering the overall buoyancy and keeping the severe potential low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center places Hurricane Milton just off the east-central FL Coast early D4/Thursday morning. This system is expected to interact with a larger scale upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS throughout the day on D4/Thursday, causing it to eject quickly northeastward into the Atlantic. Upper ridging will likely be in place from the Southwest into the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Thursday, and this ridging is expected to shift eastward in the wake of the eastern CONUS troughing. Some dampening of this ridge is possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday as a shortwave trough progresses throughout its northern periphery across central Canada and Ontario/Upper Great Lakes. The northern stream is expected to stay fairly active during the weekend, with another shortwave trough likely dropping from the Canadian Prairies and Great Lakes on D7/Sunday. Any stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the better low-level moisture on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Some moisture return into the Mid MS and OH Valleys is possible on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, ahead of a potential cold front that is currently expected to move through on D7/Sunday. Current guidance suggest the moisture return will be limited, tempering the overall buoyancy and keeping the severe potential low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center places Hurricane Milton just off the east-central FL Coast early D4/Thursday morning. This system is expected to interact with a larger scale upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS throughout the day on D4/Thursday, causing it to eject quickly northeastward into the Atlantic. Upper ridging will likely be in place from the Southwest into the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Thursday, and this ridging is expected to shift eastward in the wake of the eastern CONUS troughing. Some dampening of this ridge is possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday as a shortwave trough progresses throughout its northern periphery across central Canada and Ontario/Upper Great Lakes. The northern stream is expected to stay fairly active during the weekend, with another shortwave trough likely dropping from the Canadian Prairies and Great Lakes on D7/Sunday. Any stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the better low-level moisture on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Some moisture return into the Mid MS and OH Valleys is possible on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, ahead of a potential cold front that is currently expected to move through on D7/Sunday. Current guidance suggest the moisture return will be limited, tempering the overall buoyancy and keeping the severe potential low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center places Hurricane Milton just off the east-central FL Coast early D4/Thursday morning. This system is expected to interact with a larger scale upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS throughout the day on D4/Thursday, causing it to eject quickly northeastward into the Atlantic. Upper ridging will likely be in place from the Southwest into the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Thursday, and this ridging is expected to shift eastward in the wake of the eastern CONUS troughing. Some dampening of this ridge is possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday as a shortwave trough progresses throughout its northern periphery across central Canada and Ontario/Upper Great Lakes. The northern stream is expected to stay fairly active during the weekend, with another shortwave trough likely dropping from the Canadian Prairies and Great Lakes on D7/Sunday. Any stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the better low-level moisture on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Some moisture return into the Mid MS and OH Valleys is possible on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, ahead of a potential cold front that is currently expected to move through on D7/Sunday. Current guidance suggest the moisture return will be limited, tempering the overall buoyancy and keeping the severe potential low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center places Hurricane Milton just off the east-central FL Coast early D4/Thursday morning. This system is expected to interact with a larger scale upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS throughout the day on D4/Thursday, causing it to eject quickly northeastward into the Atlantic. Upper ridging will likely be in place from the Southwest into the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Thursday, and this ridging is expected to shift eastward in the wake of the eastern CONUS troughing. Some dampening of this ridge is possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday as a shortwave trough progresses throughout its northern periphery across central Canada and Ontario/Upper Great Lakes. The northern stream is expected to stay fairly active during the weekend, with another shortwave trough likely dropping from the Canadian Prairies and Great Lakes on D7/Sunday. Any stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the better low-level moisture on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Some moisture return into the Mid MS and OH Valleys is possible on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, ahead of a potential cold front that is currently expected to move through on D7/Sunday. Current guidance suggest the moisture return will be limited, tempering the overall buoyancy and keeping the severe potential low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong shortwave trough and associated cold mid-level temperatures are forecast to progress across Ontario, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast, moving through the base of a large cyclone centered over western Quebec. To the west of this cyclone, upper ridging will continue to shift eastward into more of western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A weak shortwave trough will likely move within this broader ridging over the Mid MO Valley. While a flash or two is possible within some high-based convection near the CO/NM border as well as the TX Panhandle/western OK, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10% in these areas. Primary forecast concern for Wednesday is the evolution of Hurricane Milton, which is currently expected to move across the FL Peninsula Wednesday evening/night. The airmass across the central/southern FL Peninsula will likely be characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints. This low-level moisture should be sufficient for enough buoyancy to support some deeper, more persistent updrafts, particularly during afternoon when some daytime heating is also possible. Wind fields are also expected to increase substantially during this time. The resulting combination of buoyancy and shear will support the risk for tornadoes within the convective rainbands of Milton. ..Mosier.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong shortwave trough and associated cold mid-level temperatures are forecast to progress across Ontario, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast, moving through the base of a large cyclone centered over western Quebec. To the west of this cyclone, upper ridging will continue to shift eastward into more of western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A weak shortwave trough will likely move within this broader ridging over the Mid MO Valley. While a flash or two is possible within some high-based convection near the CO/NM border as well as the TX Panhandle/western OK, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10% in these areas. Primary forecast concern for Wednesday is the evolution of Hurricane Milton, which is currently expected to move across the FL Peninsula Wednesday evening/night. The airmass across the central/southern FL Peninsula will likely be characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints. This low-level moisture should be sufficient for enough buoyancy to support some deeper, more persistent updrafts, particularly during afternoon when some daytime heating is also possible. Wind fields are also expected to increase substantially during this time. The resulting combination of buoyancy and shear will support the risk for tornadoes within the convective rainbands of Milton. ..Mosier.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong shortwave trough and associated cold mid-level temperatures are forecast to progress across Ontario, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast, moving through the base of a large cyclone centered over western Quebec. To the west of this cyclone, upper ridging will continue to shift eastward into more of western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A weak shortwave trough will likely move within this broader ridging over the Mid MO Valley. While a flash or two is possible within some high-based convection near the CO/NM border as well as the TX Panhandle/western OK, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10% in these areas. Primary forecast concern for Wednesday is the evolution of Hurricane Milton, which is currently expected to move across the FL Peninsula Wednesday evening/night. The airmass across the central/southern FL Peninsula will likely be characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints. This low-level moisture should be sufficient for enough buoyancy to support some deeper, more persistent updrafts, particularly during afternoon when some daytime heating is also possible. Wind fields are also expected to increase substantially during this time. The resulting combination of buoyancy and shear will support the risk for tornadoes within the convective rainbands of Milton. ..Mosier.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong shortwave trough and associated cold mid-level temperatures are forecast to progress across Ontario, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast, moving through the base of a large cyclone centered over western Quebec. To the west of this cyclone, upper ridging will continue to shift eastward into more of western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A weak shortwave trough will likely move within this broader ridging over the Mid MO Valley. While a flash or two is possible within some high-based convection near the CO/NM border as well as the TX Panhandle/western OK, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10% in these areas. Primary forecast concern for Wednesday is the evolution of Hurricane Milton, which is currently expected to move across the FL Peninsula Wednesday evening/night. The airmass across the central/southern FL Peninsula will likely be characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints. This low-level moisture should be sufficient for enough buoyancy to support some deeper, more persistent updrafts, particularly during afternoon when some daytime heating is also possible. Wind fields are also expected to increase substantially during this time. The resulting combination of buoyancy and shear will support the risk for tornadoes within the convective rainbands of Milton. ..Mosier.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is poised to eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging becomes established across the central U.S., and another mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Though weak surface lee troughing may develop across the Plains states by afternoon, surface high pressure should dominate the Interior West, as well as the Mississippi Valley region and points east. Dry but cool surface conditions with a light and variable surface wind field should accompany areas experiencing high pressure, with wildfire-spread concerns remaining localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is poised to eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging becomes established across the central U.S., and another mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Though weak surface lee troughing may develop across the Plains states by afternoon, surface high pressure should dominate the Interior West, as well as the Mississippi Valley region and points east. Dry but cool surface conditions with a light and variable surface wind field should accompany areas experiencing high pressure, with wildfire-spread concerns remaining localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is poised to eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging becomes established across the central U.S., and another mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Though weak surface lee troughing may develop across the Plains states by afternoon, surface high pressure should dominate the Interior West, as well as the Mississippi Valley region and points east. Dry but cool surface conditions with a light and variable surface wind field should accompany areas experiencing high pressure, with wildfire-spread concerns remaining localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is poised to eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging becomes established across the central U.S., and another mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Though weak surface lee troughing may develop across the Plains states by afternoon, surface high pressure should dominate the Interior West, as well as the Mississippi Valley region and points east. Dry but cool surface conditions with a light and variable surface wind field should accompany areas experiencing high pressure, with wildfire-spread concerns remaining localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic coastline while upper ridging builds across the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure will overspread much of the CONUS, promoting dry but cool conditions and relatively weak surface wind fields. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., with any wildfire-growth potential likely remaining localized. Some Elevated-equivalent fire weather surface conditions are possible along the Wyoming/Colorado border by afternoon heating (driven by downslope flow). However, these conditions should not persist long enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic coastline while upper ridging builds across the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure will overspread much of the CONUS, promoting dry but cool conditions and relatively weak surface wind fields. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., with any wildfire-growth potential likely remaining localized. Some Elevated-equivalent fire weather surface conditions are possible along the Wyoming/Colorado border by afternoon heating (driven by downslope flow). However, these conditions should not persist long enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic coastline while upper ridging builds across the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure will overspread much of the CONUS, promoting dry but cool conditions and relatively weak surface wind fields. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., with any wildfire-growth potential likely remaining localized. Some Elevated-equivalent fire weather surface conditions are possible along the Wyoming/Colorado border by afternoon heating (driven by downslope flow). However, these conditions should not persist long enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more