SPC Oct 2, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. ..Weinman.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 2, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. ..Weinman.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 2, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. ..Weinman.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 2, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. ..Weinman.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on morning observations and latest guidance. 12 UTC 925 and 850 mb analyses continue to show the low-level thermal trough oriented from southeast WY into the eastern Dakotas - largely aligned with the surface trough. As such, the warmest/driest conditions will likely remain offset slightly from the strongest winds (which are already increasing to 15-20 knots on either side of the surface trough) through the afternoon, and limits confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. The Elevated risk areas were both expanded based on where observations are already showing dry/windy conditions, and on morning HREF guidance with a slight bias towards recent HRRR solutions that have accurately captured morning trends. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on morning observations and latest guidance. 12 UTC 925 and 850 mb analyses continue to show the low-level thermal trough oriented from southeast WY into the eastern Dakotas - largely aligned with the surface trough. As such, the warmest/driest conditions will likely remain offset slightly from the strongest winds (which are already increasing to 15-20 knots on either side of the surface trough) through the afternoon, and limits confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. The Elevated risk areas were both expanded based on where observations are already showing dry/windy conditions, and on morning HREF guidance with a slight bias towards recent HRRR solutions that have accurately captured morning trends. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on morning observations and latest guidance. 12 UTC 925 and 850 mb analyses continue to show the low-level thermal trough oriented from southeast WY into the eastern Dakotas - largely aligned with the surface trough. As such, the warmest/driest conditions will likely remain offset slightly from the strongest winds (which are already increasing to 15-20 knots on either side of the surface trough) through the afternoon, and limits confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. The Elevated risk areas were both expanded based on where observations are already showing dry/windy conditions, and on morning HREF guidance with a slight bias towards recent HRRR solutions that have accurately captured morning trends. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on morning observations and latest guidance. 12 UTC 925 and 850 mb analyses continue to show the low-level thermal trough oriented from southeast WY into the eastern Dakotas - largely aligned with the surface trough. As such, the warmest/driest conditions will likely remain offset slightly from the strongest winds (which are already increasing to 15-20 knots on either side of the surface trough) through the afternoon, and limits confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. The Elevated risk areas were both expanded based on where observations are already showing dry/windy conditions, and on morning HREF guidance with a slight bias towards recent HRRR solutions that have accurately captured morning trends. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on morning observations and latest guidance. 12 UTC 925 and 850 mb analyses continue to show the low-level thermal trough oriented from southeast WY into the eastern Dakotas - largely aligned with the surface trough. As such, the warmest/driest conditions will likely remain offset slightly from the strongest winds (which are already increasing to 15-20 knots on either side of the surface trough) through the afternoon, and limits confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. The Elevated risk areas were both expanded based on where observations are already showing dry/windy conditions, and on morning HREF guidance with a slight bias towards recent HRRR solutions that have accurately captured morning trends. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on morning observations and latest guidance. 12 UTC 925 and 850 mb analyses continue to show the low-level thermal trough oriented from southeast WY into the eastern Dakotas - largely aligned with the surface trough. As such, the warmest/driest conditions will likely remain offset slightly from the strongest winds (which are already increasing to 15-20 knots on either side of the surface trough) through the afternoon, and limits confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. The Elevated risk areas were both expanded based on where observations are already showing dry/windy conditions, and on morning HREF guidance with a slight bias towards recent HRRR solutions that have accurately captured morning trends. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

9 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021436 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 First light visible imagery and a GMI microwave overpass during the night show that the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E is again a little to the southwest of the previous track. While the system is part of a large area of convection, the convection is generally poorly organized, and there has been little change in the various satellite intensity estimates since the last advisory. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The track forecast is of low confidence. Satellite imagery and model analyses indicate that the depression is currently absorbing or merging with the vorticity of the EP97 disturbance, and this has resulted in the system center moving slowly southwestward during the past 6-12 h. The models have diverse solutions for the subsequent track, with the GFS and Canadian taking the cyclone northward into eastern Mexico, while the UKMET forecasts a west-northwestward motion offshore parallel to the coast and the ECMWF forecasting the system to dissipate over water. The new forecast track is a compromise between the the GFS and UKMET forecast and shows the center making landfall between 36-48 h in the current Tropical Storm Warning area. This forecast has some significant changes in direction and speed from the previous forecast, and additional adjustments may be necessary later today and tonight. Regardless of exactly where the cyclone tracks, it is expected to be in an environment of moderate to strong easterly shear through at least 48 h. This should limit the intensification, and the forecast peak intensity of 40 kt remains at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The main impact from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 14.9N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.8N 96.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 14.9N 96.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 15.3N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 16.0N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0000Z 16.4N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

9 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 159 FOPZ11 KNHC 021436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P ANGEL 34 5 13(18) 5(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) P ANGEL 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATULCO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 95W 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 4

9 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 021435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 95.8W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 95.8W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.8N 96.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.9N 96.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.3N 97.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.4N 98.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 95.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 4

9 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021435 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NOW MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 95.8W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 95.8 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, and that general motion should continue through Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area late Thursday or Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area later today and tonight. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
NHC Webmaster

SPC Oct 2, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will be characterized by a belt of gently difluent, west-northwesterly northern-stream flow from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. This flow will weaken considerably and become much more difluent over the Ohio Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and Appalachians. The strongest flow aloft will be well-displaced from any substantial low-level moisture/theta-e, which is expected to remain along and south of a quasistationary front draped across north-central FL. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are expected to form along FL East and West Coast sea breezes, shifting inland as the boundaries (including outflows from the first generation of convection nearer the coasts) merge. Weak deep-layer flow and lack of shear will preclude organized severe potential. Localized strong gusts are possible in wet downbursts with enhanced lift along colliding boundaries, 1500-2000 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE, and rich inflow- layer moisture (surface dewpoints 70s F and PW commonly over 2 inches). Elsewhere, very isolated/brief lightning may occur near the AZ/NM border and Mogollon Rim, but with barely enough moisture for convection, coverage is expected to be too small for a 10% area. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 2, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will be characterized by a belt of gently difluent, west-northwesterly northern-stream flow from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. This flow will weaken considerably and become much more difluent over the Ohio Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and Appalachians. The strongest flow aloft will be well-displaced from any substantial low-level moisture/theta-e, which is expected to remain along and south of a quasistationary front draped across north-central FL. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are expected to form along FL East and West Coast sea breezes, shifting inland as the boundaries (including outflows from the first generation of convection nearer the coasts) merge. Weak deep-layer flow and lack of shear will preclude organized severe potential. Localized strong gusts are possible in wet downbursts with enhanced lift along colliding boundaries, 1500-2000 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE, and rich inflow- layer moisture (surface dewpoints 70s F and PW commonly over 2 inches). Elsewhere, very isolated/brief lightning may occur near the AZ/NM border and Mogollon Rim, but with barely enough moisture for convection, coverage is expected to be too small for a 10% area. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 2, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will be characterized by a belt of gently difluent, west-northwesterly northern-stream flow from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. This flow will weaken considerably and become much more difluent over the Ohio Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and Appalachians. The strongest flow aloft will be well-displaced from any substantial low-level moisture/theta-e, which is expected to remain along and south of a quasistationary front draped across north-central FL. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are expected to form along FL East and West Coast sea breezes, shifting inland as the boundaries (including outflows from the first generation of convection nearer the coasts) merge. Weak deep-layer flow and lack of shear will preclude organized severe potential. Localized strong gusts are possible in wet downbursts with enhanced lift along colliding boundaries, 1500-2000 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE, and rich inflow- layer moisture (surface dewpoints 70s F and PW commonly over 2 inches). Elsewhere, very isolated/brief lightning may occur near the AZ/NM border and Mogollon Rim, but with barely enough moisture for convection, coverage is expected to be too small for a 10% area. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 2, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will be characterized by a belt of gently difluent, west-northwesterly northern-stream flow from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. This flow will weaken considerably and become much more difluent over the Ohio Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and Appalachians. The strongest flow aloft will be well-displaced from any substantial low-level moisture/theta-e, which is expected to remain along and south of a quasistationary front draped across north-central FL. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are expected to form along FL East and West Coast sea breezes, shifting inland as the boundaries (including outflows from the first generation of convection nearer the coasts) merge. Weak deep-layer flow and lack of shear will preclude organized severe potential. Localized strong gusts are possible in wet downbursts with enhanced lift along colliding boundaries, 1500-2000 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE, and rich inflow- layer moisture (surface dewpoints 70s F and PW commonly over 2 inches). Elsewhere, very isolated/brief lightning may occur near the AZ/NM border and Mogollon Rim, but with barely enough moisture for convection, coverage is expected to be too small for a 10% area. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/02/2024 Read more