Aggregator

WW 0717 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0717 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0717 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0717 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 28 11:04:01 UTC 2024.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough and associated surface low/cold front will move towards the Mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coast Tuesday, and thunderstorms will be possible within a weakly unstable warm sector as large-scale ascent increases during the day. Confidence in the potential for stronger storms is low given the spatially confined area and expected weak destabilization. During the remainder of the week and, despite some model/ensemble variability, there is general agreement on an eastern CONUS upper trough and a ridge across the western U.S. This pattern does not favor substantial/rapid moisture return in the wake of the prior cold frontal passage, and overall thunderstorm chances will be very low to nil Wednesday through Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough and associated surface low/cold front will move towards the Mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coast Tuesday, and thunderstorms will be possible within a weakly unstable warm sector as large-scale ascent increases during the day. Confidence in the potential for stronger storms is low given the spatially confined area and expected weak destabilization. During the remainder of the week and, despite some model/ensemble variability, there is general agreement on an eastern CONUS upper trough and a ridge across the western U.S. This pattern does not favor substantial/rapid moisture return in the wake of the prior cold frontal passage, and overall thunderstorm chances will be very low to nil Wednesday through Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough and associated surface low/cold front will move towards the Mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coast Tuesday, and thunderstorms will be possible within a weakly unstable warm sector as large-scale ascent increases during the day. Confidence in the potential for stronger storms is low given the spatially confined area and expected weak destabilization. During the remainder of the week and, despite some model/ensemble variability, there is general agreement on an eastern CONUS upper trough and a ridge across the western U.S. This pattern does not favor substantial/rapid moisture return in the wake of the prior cold frontal passage, and overall thunderstorm chances will be very low to nil Wednesday through Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough and associated surface low/cold front will move towards the Mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coast Tuesday, and thunderstorms will be possible within a weakly unstable warm sector as large-scale ascent increases during the day. Confidence in the potential for stronger storms is low given the spatially confined area and expected weak destabilization. During the remainder of the week and, despite some model/ensemble variability, there is general agreement on an eastern CONUS upper trough and a ridge across the western U.S. This pattern does not favor substantial/rapid moisture return in the wake of the prior cold frontal passage, and overall thunderstorm chances will be very low to nil Wednesday through Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough and associated surface low/cold front will move towards the Mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coast Tuesday, and thunderstorms will be possible within a weakly unstable warm sector as large-scale ascent increases during the day. Confidence in the potential for stronger storms is low given the spatially confined area and expected weak destabilization. During the remainder of the week and, despite some model/ensemble variability, there is general agreement on an eastern CONUS upper trough and a ridge across the western U.S. This pattern does not favor substantial/rapid moisture return in the wake of the prior cold frontal passage, and overall thunderstorm chances will be very low to nil Wednesday through Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough and associated surface low/cold front will move towards the Mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coast Tuesday, and thunderstorms will be possible within a weakly unstable warm sector as large-scale ascent increases during the day. Confidence in the potential for stronger storms is low given the spatially confined area and expected weak destabilization. During the remainder of the week and, despite some model/ensemble variability, there is general agreement on an eastern CONUS upper trough and a ridge across the western U.S. This pattern does not favor substantial/rapid moisture return in the wake of the prior cold frontal passage, and overall thunderstorm chances will be very low to nil Wednesday through Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough and associated surface low/cold front will move towards the Mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coast Tuesday, and thunderstorms will be possible within a weakly unstable warm sector as large-scale ascent increases during the day. Confidence in the potential for stronger storms is low given the spatially confined area and expected weak destabilization. During the remainder of the week and, despite some model/ensemble variability, there is general agreement on an eastern CONUS upper trough and a ridge across the western U.S. This pattern does not favor substantial/rapid moisture return in the wake of the prior cold frontal passage, and overall thunderstorm chances will be very low to nil Wednesday through Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough and associated surface low/cold front will move towards the Mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coast Tuesday, and thunderstorms will be possible within a weakly unstable warm sector as large-scale ascent increases during the day. Confidence in the potential for stronger storms is low given the spatially confined area and expected weak destabilization. During the remainder of the week and, despite some model/ensemble variability, there is general agreement on an eastern CONUS upper trough and a ridge across the western U.S. This pattern does not favor substantial/rapid moisture return in the wake of the prior cold frontal passage, and overall thunderstorm chances will be very low to nil Wednesday through Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough and associated surface low/cold front will move towards the Mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coast Tuesday, and thunderstorms will be possible within a weakly unstable warm sector as large-scale ascent increases during the day. Confidence in the potential for stronger storms is low given the spatially confined area and expected weak destabilization. During the remainder of the week and, despite some model/ensemble variability, there is general agreement on an eastern CONUS upper trough and a ridge across the western U.S. This pattern does not favor substantial/rapid moisture return in the wake of the prior cold frontal passage, and overall thunderstorm chances will be very low to nil Wednesday through Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough and associated surface low/cold front will move towards the Mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coast Tuesday, and thunderstorms will be possible within a weakly unstable warm sector as large-scale ascent increases during the day. Confidence in the potential for stronger storms is low given the spatially confined area and expected weak destabilization. During the remainder of the week and, despite some model/ensemble variability, there is general agreement on an eastern CONUS upper trough and a ridge across the western U.S. This pattern does not favor substantial/rapid moisture return in the wake of the prior cold frontal passage, and overall thunderstorm chances will be very low to nil Wednesday through Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough and associated surface low/cold front will move towards the Mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coast Tuesday, and thunderstorms will be possible within a weakly unstable warm sector as large-scale ascent increases during the day. Confidence in the potential for stronger storms is low given the spatially confined area and expected weak destabilization. During the remainder of the week and, despite some model/ensemble variability, there is general agreement on an eastern CONUS upper trough and a ridge across the western U.S. This pattern does not favor substantial/rapid moisture return in the wake of the prior cold frontal passage, and overall thunderstorm chances will be very low to nil Wednesday through Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough and associated surface low/cold front will move towards the Mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coast Tuesday, and thunderstorms will be possible within a weakly unstable warm sector as large-scale ascent increases during the day. Confidence in the potential for stronger storms is low given the spatially confined area and expected weak destabilization. During the remainder of the week and, despite some model/ensemble variability, there is general agreement on an eastern CONUS upper trough and a ridge across the western U.S. This pattern does not favor substantial/rapid moisture return in the wake of the prior cold frontal passage, and overall thunderstorm chances will be very low to nil Wednesday through Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough and associated surface low/cold front will move towards the Mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coast Tuesday, and thunderstorms will be possible within a weakly unstable warm sector as large-scale ascent increases during the day. Confidence in the potential for stronger storms is low given the spatially confined area and expected weak destabilization. During the remainder of the week and, despite some model/ensemble variability, there is general agreement on an eastern CONUS upper trough and a ridge across the western U.S. This pattern does not favor substantial/rapid moisture return in the wake of the prior cold frontal passage, and overall thunderstorm chances will be very low to nil Wednesday through Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough and associated surface low/cold front will move towards the Mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coast Tuesday, and thunderstorms will be possible within a weakly unstable warm sector as large-scale ascent increases during the day. Confidence in the potential for stronger storms is low given the spatially confined area and expected weak destabilization. During the remainder of the week and, despite some model/ensemble variability, there is general agreement on an eastern CONUS upper trough and a ridge across the western U.S. This pattern does not favor substantial/rapid moisture return in the wake of the prior cold frontal passage, and overall thunderstorm chances will be very low to nil Wednesday through Saturday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of the eastern U.S. upper trough which will exit the northeast U.S. during the day Monday, an upstream trough will amplify as it moves southeast into the central portion of the CONUS Monday and Monday night. In response, a surface low will develop and be located near the KS/MO border during the afternoon. Although southerly low-level flow will become re-established from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Ozarks as the low develops, richer boundary-layer moisture (surface dew points at or above mid 50s) will remain confined to coastal areas from southeast TX into southern Louisiana. Farther north, dew points generally in the 40s will be prevalent. As strong dynamic ascent with the upper trough interacts with the meager low-level moisture over the mid-Mississippi Valley, an isolated lightning strike cannot be ruled out within an area of developing precipitation. Overall coverage, however, is not expected to warrant an areal delineation (10 percent probability) for thunderstorms. Elsewhere over the CONUS, generally stable conditions should result in negligible chances for thunderstorms. ..Bunting.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of the eastern U.S. upper trough which will exit the northeast U.S. during the day Monday, an upstream trough will amplify as it moves southeast into the central portion of the CONUS Monday and Monday night. In response, a surface low will develop and be located near the KS/MO border during the afternoon. Although southerly low-level flow will become re-established from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Ozarks as the low develops, richer boundary-layer moisture (surface dew points at or above mid 50s) will remain confined to coastal areas from southeast TX into southern Louisiana. Farther north, dew points generally in the 40s will be prevalent. As strong dynamic ascent with the upper trough interacts with the meager low-level moisture over the mid-Mississippi Valley, an isolated lightning strike cannot be ruled out within an area of developing precipitation. Overall coverage, however, is not expected to warrant an areal delineation (10 percent probability) for thunderstorms. Elsewhere over the CONUS, generally stable conditions should result in negligible chances for thunderstorms. ..Bunting.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of the eastern U.S. upper trough which will exit the northeast U.S. during the day Monday, an upstream trough will amplify as it moves southeast into the central portion of the CONUS Monday and Monday night. In response, a surface low will develop and be located near the KS/MO border during the afternoon. Although southerly low-level flow will become re-established from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Ozarks as the low develops, richer boundary-layer moisture (surface dew points at or above mid 50s) will remain confined to coastal areas from southeast TX into southern Louisiana. Farther north, dew points generally in the 40s will be prevalent. As strong dynamic ascent with the upper trough interacts with the meager low-level moisture over the mid-Mississippi Valley, an isolated lightning strike cannot be ruled out within an area of developing precipitation. Overall coverage, however, is not expected to warrant an areal delineation (10 percent probability) for thunderstorms. Elsewhere over the CONUS, generally stable conditions should result in negligible chances for thunderstorms. ..Bunting.. 12/28/2024 Read more