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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Potential for severe weather continues to appear limited on Thursday and Friday as upper-level flow will remain primarily zonal across the CONUS along with a surface pattern that will not promote northward advection of moisture. By the weekend, the predictability of the upper-level pattern begins to decrease quickly. Both the GFS and ECMWF show flow trying to amplify in the northern half of the CONUS. However, the wave pattern between the two models is out of phase. The ECMWF would suggest at least some low potential for severe weather, given a greater southward advancement of an upper trough this weekend into early next week. Even if this evolution is to verify, this severe potential would be conditional on the magnitude and quality of moisture return after another front moves into the Gulf Coast region late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Potential for severe weather continues to appear limited on Thursday and Friday as upper-level flow will remain primarily zonal across the CONUS along with a surface pattern that will not promote northward advection of moisture. By the weekend, the predictability of the upper-level pattern begins to decrease quickly. Both the GFS and ECMWF show flow trying to amplify in the northern half of the CONUS. However, the wave pattern between the two models is out of phase. The ECMWF would suggest at least some low potential for severe weather, given a greater southward advancement of an upper trough this weekend into early next week. Even if this evolution is to verify, this severe potential would be conditional on the magnitude and quality of moisture return after another front moves into the Gulf Coast region late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Potential for severe weather continues to appear limited on Thursday and Friday as upper-level flow will remain primarily zonal across the CONUS along with a surface pattern that will not promote northward advection of moisture. By the weekend, the predictability of the upper-level pattern begins to decrease quickly. Both the GFS and ECMWF show flow trying to amplify in the northern half of the CONUS. However, the wave pattern between the two models is out of phase. The ECMWF would suggest at least some low potential for severe weather, given a greater southward advancement of an upper trough this weekend into early next week. Even if this evolution is to verify, this severe potential would be conditional on the magnitude and quality of moisture return after another front moves into the Gulf Coast region late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Potential for severe weather continues to appear limited on Thursday and Friday as upper-level flow will remain primarily zonal across the CONUS along with a surface pattern that will not promote northward advection of moisture. By the weekend, the predictability of the upper-level pattern begins to decrease quickly. Both the GFS and ECMWF show flow trying to amplify in the northern half of the CONUS. However, the wave pattern between the two models is out of phase. The ECMWF would suggest at least some low potential for severe weather, given a greater southward advancement of an upper trough this weekend into early next week. Even if this evolution is to verify, this severe potential would be conditional on the magnitude and quality of moisture return after another front moves into the Gulf Coast region late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Potential for severe weather continues to appear limited on Thursday and Friday as upper-level flow will remain primarily zonal across the CONUS along with a surface pattern that will not promote northward advection of moisture. By the weekend, the predictability of the upper-level pattern begins to decrease quickly. Both the GFS and ECMWF show flow trying to amplify in the northern half of the CONUS. However, the wave pattern between the two models is out of phase. The ECMWF would suggest at least some low potential for severe weather, given a greater southward advancement of an upper trough this weekend into early next week. Even if this evolution is to verify, this severe potential would be conditional on the magnitude and quality of moisture return after another front moves into the Gulf Coast region late next week. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A zonal flow pattern aloft is expected to develop by Wednesday morning across the CONUS. The jet stream will be positioned along the Canadian border. Stable conditions in the northern tier of states should generally preclude thunderstorm development with any embedded shortwave troughs. Farther south, upper-level ridging will also minimize thunderstorm potential. Two exceptions are within the Florida Peninsula where the sea breeze will provide sufficient lift for storms during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where mid-level moisture still remains. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A zonal flow pattern aloft is expected to develop by Wednesday morning across the CONUS. The jet stream will be positioned along the Canadian border. Stable conditions in the northern tier of states should generally preclude thunderstorm development with any embedded shortwave troughs. Farther south, upper-level ridging will also minimize thunderstorm potential. Two exceptions are within the Florida Peninsula where the sea breeze will provide sufficient lift for storms during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where mid-level moisture still remains. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A zonal flow pattern aloft is expected to develop by Wednesday morning across the CONUS. The jet stream will be positioned along the Canadian border. Stable conditions in the northern tier of states should generally preclude thunderstorm development with any embedded shortwave troughs. Farther south, upper-level ridging will also minimize thunderstorm potential. Two exceptions are within the Florida Peninsula where the sea breeze will provide sufficient lift for storms during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where mid-level moisture still remains. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A zonal flow pattern aloft is expected to develop by Wednesday morning across the CONUS. The jet stream will be positioned along the Canadian border. Stable conditions in the northern tier of states should generally preclude thunderstorm development with any embedded shortwave troughs. Farther south, upper-level ridging will also minimize thunderstorm potential. Two exceptions are within the Florida Peninsula where the sea breeze will provide sufficient lift for storms during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where mid-level moisture still remains. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A zonal flow pattern aloft is expected to develop by Wednesday morning across the CONUS. The jet stream will be positioned along the Canadian border. Stable conditions in the northern tier of states should generally preclude thunderstorm development with any embedded shortwave troughs. Farther south, upper-level ridging will also minimize thunderstorm potential. Two exceptions are within the Florida Peninsula where the sea breeze will provide sufficient lift for storms during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where mid-level moisture still remains. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front. Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is too low at this time to add a Critical delineation. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address this threat. ..Bentley.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front. Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is too low at this time to add a Critical delineation. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address this threat. ..Bentley.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front. Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is too low at this time to add a Critical delineation. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address this threat. ..Bentley.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front. Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is too low at this time to add a Critical delineation. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address this threat. ..Bentley.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front. Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is too low at this time to add a Critical delineation. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address this threat. ..Bentley.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ..Bentley.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ..Bentley.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ..Bentley.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ..Bentley.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ..Bentley.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more