SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... The Elevated areas in the central/northern Plains and eastern Washington were expanded to reflect the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Locally elevated conditions may develop farther east on the northern Plains into northwest Minnesota and in portions of eastern Oregon into southwest Idaho as well. Breezy offshore winds are likely to develop overnight in far southwest Oregon and northwest California, most likely affecting mid/upper slopes, and may result in locally elevated conditions. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid to upper-level trough and accompanying jet streak are expected to traverse the western Canadian provinces Sunday. At the surface, a low will deepen across the northern Rockies and tightening pressure gradients will develop from the northern Plains, into the Intermountain West, and Cascades. The result will be increasing surface winds within these areas. A dry return-flow regime over the northern Plains will unfold, where high confidence in the latest guidance suggests speeds around 15-25 mph by the afternoon. Persistent low moisture content of fine to medium fuels across this region, ERCs exceeding 95th percentiles, and RH in the low teens warrants a narrow Critical area from the NE Panhandle through west-central SD. Further west of this region, southwest to westerly winds of slightly lower speeds will impact central WY, southern MT, and portions of ID. Two other Elevated areas have also been included for the Great Basin and Columbia River Basin of WA. Fuels across the former region continue to become more receptive to fire spread due to persistent warm and dry conditions, but only transient elevated to critical south-southwest winds are anticipated. Dry, westerly downslope surface flow near 15 mph coinciding with RH in the upper teens preceding the trough will impact eastern WA. If later guidance suggest a deeper and/or slower trough progression, this Elevated area may need to be expanded. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A weakening, positive-tilt mid/upper trough will drift east over the central/southern Appalachians. Similar to prior days, a confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies will remain present from eastern Georgia into the eastern Carolinas. The surface pattern in the East will remain quite diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly during Monday afternoon, centered on parts of central/eastern NC/VA. Weak mid/upper-level lapse rates and nebulous forcing for ascent will remain limiting factors to storm intensity. Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass and lift from sea breeze boundaries will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms in a weakly sheared environment across the Florida Peninsula. In the West, potential for very isolated afternoon thunderstorms should shift southeast from the eastern Great Basin on Sunday to the southern Rockies and Mogollon Rim on Monday. Scant buoyancy and nebulous large-scale ascent suggest thunderstorm probabilities are only around 10 percent. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A weakening, positive-tilt mid/upper trough will drift east over the central/southern Appalachians. Similar to prior days, a confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies will remain present from eastern Georgia into the eastern Carolinas. The surface pattern in the East will remain quite diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly during Monday afternoon, centered on parts of central/eastern NC/VA. Weak mid/upper-level lapse rates and nebulous forcing for ascent will remain limiting factors to storm intensity. Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass and lift from sea breeze boundaries will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms in a weakly sheared environment across the Florida Peninsula. In the West, potential for very isolated afternoon thunderstorms should shift southeast from the eastern Great Basin on Sunday to the southern Rockies and Mogollon Rim on Monday. Scant buoyancy and nebulous large-scale ascent suggest thunderstorm probabilities are only around 10 percent. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A weakening, positive-tilt mid/upper trough will drift east over the central/southern Appalachians. Similar to prior days, a confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies will remain present from eastern Georgia into the eastern Carolinas. The surface pattern in the East will remain quite diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly during Monday afternoon, centered on parts of central/eastern NC/VA. Weak mid/upper-level lapse rates and nebulous forcing for ascent will remain limiting factors to storm intensity. Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass and lift from sea breeze boundaries will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms in a weakly sheared environment across the Florida Peninsula. In the West, potential for very isolated afternoon thunderstorms should shift southeast from the eastern Great Basin on Sunday to the southern Rockies and Mogollon Rim on Monday. Scant buoyancy and nebulous large-scale ascent suggest thunderstorm probabilities are only around 10 percent. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A weakening, positive-tilt mid/upper trough will drift east over the central/southern Appalachians. Similar to prior days, a confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies will remain present from eastern Georgia into the eastern Carolinas. The surface pattern in the East will remain quite diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly during Monday afternoon, centered on parts of central/eastern NC/VA. Weak mid/upper-level lapse rates and nebulous forcing for ascent will remain limiting factors to storm intensity. Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass and lift from sea breeze boundaries will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms in a weakly sheared environment across the Florida Peninsula. In the West, potential for very isolated afternoon thunderstorms should shift southeast from the eastern Great Basin on Sunday to the southern Rockies and Mogollon Rim on Monday. Scant buoyancy and nebulous large-scale ascent suggest thunderstorm probabilities are only around 10 percent. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A weakening, positive-tilt mid/upper trough will drift east over the central/southern Appalachians. Similar to prior days, a confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies will remain present from eastern Georgia into the eastern Carolinas. The surface pattern in the East will remain quite diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly during Monday afternoon, centered on parts of central/eastern NC/VA. Weak mid/upper-level lapse rates and nebulous forcing for ascent will remain limiting factors to storm intensity. Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass and lift from sea breeze boundaries will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms in a weakly sheared environment across the Florida Peninsula. In the West, potential for very isolated afternoon thunderstorms should shift southeast from the eastern Great Basin on Sunday to the southern Rockies and Mogollon Rim on Monday. Scant buoyancy and nebulous large-scale ascent suggest thunderstorm probabilities are only around 10 percent. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form during the early to middle part
of next week off the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico. Some
slow development is possible thereafter while the system drifts
westward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
NHC Webmaster

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Eastern Great Basin... Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst potential and locally strong gusts. ...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic... Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast. Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such, instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas. Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less, yielding negligible severe concern. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Eastern Great Basin... Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst potential and locally strong gusts. ...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic... Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast. Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such, instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas. Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less, yielding negligible severe concern. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Eastern Great Basin... Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst potential and locally strong gusts. ...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic... Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast. Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such, instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas. Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less, yielding negligible severe concern. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Eastern Great Basin... Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst potential and locally strong gusts. ...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic... Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast. Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such, instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas. Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less, yielding negligible severe concern. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Eastern Great Basin... Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst potential and locally strong gusts. ...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic... Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast. Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such, instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas. Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less, yielding negligible severe concern. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Eastern Great Basin... Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst potential and locally strong gusts. ...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic... Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast. Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such, instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas. Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less, yielding negligible severe concern. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 28, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024 Read more