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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous forecast for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20 mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area, where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous forecast for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20 mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area, where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous forecast for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20 mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area, where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous forecast for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20 mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area, where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous forecast for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20 mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area, where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous forecast for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20 mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area, where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern features mean ridging over the West and troughing in the East. The pattern is anchored by a large, nearly stacked cyclone -- resulting from the combination of an antecedent midlatitude low with the post-tropical remnants of Helene. The cyclone should remain centered over the lower Ohio Valley region, drifting/wobbling erratically eastward over northern KY through the period, while continuing to fill. The strongest associated mid/ upper-level winds should remain mostly behind a low-level frontal zone extending from the northern Gulf across northern FL to the coastal Carolinas. South of the boundary across parts of peninsular FL, sufficient low-level moisture remains -- amid weak to negligible MLCINH and a deep troposphere with modest but sufficient lapse rates for convection. This will support scattered thunderstorms today over FL, with isolated thunderstorm potential over coastal areas of GA/Carolinas near the boundary. Dry midlevel air and lack of greater flow/shear should keep severe potential too isolated and disorganized for an outlook. Elsewhere, just east of the mean ridge and amid northerly flow very peripheral to the cyclone, a patch of marginally favorable low/ middle-level moisture should combine with diurnal heating of higher terrain over parts of northern NM and southern CO. Scattered showers are expected this afternoon, with isolated to widely scattered convection extending above a mid/upper-level stable layer and into icing regions suitable for lightning generation. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible amid weak but sufficient low-level moisture and instability around parts of the eastern Great Lakes. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern features mean ridging over the West and troughing in the East. The pattern is anchored by a large, nearly stacked cyclone -- resulting from the combination of an antecedent midlatitude low with the post-tropical remnants of Helene. The cyclone should remain centered over the lower Ohio Valley region, drifting/wobbling erratically eastward over northern KY through the period, while continuing to fill. The strongest associated mid/ upper-level winds should remain mostly behind a low-level frontal zone extending from the northern Gulf across northern FL to the coastal Carolinas. South of the boundary across parts of peninsular FL, sufficient low-level moisture remains -- amid weak to negligible MLCINH and a deep troposphere with modest but sufficient lapse rates for convection. This will support scattered thunderstorms today over FL, with isolated thunderstorm potential over coastal areas of GA/Carolinas near the boundary. Dry midlevel air and lack of greater flow/shear should keep severe potential too isolated and disorganized for an outlook. Elsewhere, just east of the mean ridge and amid northerly flow very peripheral to the cyclone, a patch of marginally favorable low/ middle-level moisture should combine with diurnal heating of higher terrain over parts of northern NM and southern CO. Scattered showers are expected this afternoon, with isolated to widely scattered convection extending above a mid/upper-level stable layer and into icing regions suitable for lightning generation. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible amid weak but sufficient low-level moisture and instability around parts of the eastern Great Lakes. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern features mean ridging over the West and troughing in the East. The pattern is anchored by a large, nearly stacked cyclone -- resulting from the combination of an antecedent midlatitude low with the post-tropical remnants of Helene. The cyclone should remain centered over the lower Ohio Valley region, drifting/wobbling erratically eastward over northern KY through the period, while continuing to fill. The strongest associated mid/ upper-level winds should remain mostly behind a low-level frontal zone extending from the northern Gulf across northern FL to the coastal Carolinas. South of the boundary across parts of peninsular FL, sufficient low-level moisture remains -- amid weak to negligible MLCINH and a deep troposphere with modest but sufficient lapse rates for convection. This will support scattered thunderstorms today over FL, with isolated thunderstorm potential over coastal areas of GA/Carolinas near the boundary. Dry midlevel air and lack of greater flow/shear should keep severe potential too isolated and disorganized for an outlook. Elsewhere, just east of the mean ridge and amid northerly flow very peripheral to the cyclone, a patch of marginally favorable low/ middle-level moisture should combine with diurnal heating of higher terrain over parts of northern NM and southern CO. Scattered showers are expected this afternoon, with isolated to widely scattered convection extending above a mid/upper-level stable layer and into icing regions suitable for lightning generation. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible amid weak but sufficient low-level moisture and instability around parts of the eastern Great Lakes. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern features mean ridging over the West and troughing in the East. The pattern is anchored by a large, nearly stacked cyclone -- resulting from the combination of an antecedent midlatitude low with the post-tropical remnants of Helene. The cyclone should remain centered over the lower Ohio Valley region, drifting/wobbling erratically eastward over northern KY through the period, while continuing to fill. The strongest associated mid/ upper-level winds should remain mostly behind a low-level frontal zone extending from the northern Gulf across northern FL to the coastal Carolinas. South of the boundary across parts of peninsular FL, sufficient low-level moisture remains -- amid weak to negligible MLCINH and a deep troposphere with modest but sufficient lapse rates for convection. This will support scattered thunderstorms today over FL, with isolated thunderstorm potential over coastal areas of GA/Carolinas near the boundary. Dry midlevel air and lack of greater flow/shear should keep severe potential too isolated and disorganized for an outlook. Elsewhere, just east of the mean ridge and amid northerly flow very peripheral to the cyclone, a patch of marginally favorable low/ middle-level moisture should combine with diurnal heating of higher terrain over parts of northern NM and southern CO. Scattered showers are expected this afternoon, with isolated to widely scattered convection extending above a mid/upper-level stable layer and into icing regions suitable for lightning generation. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible amid weak but sufficient low-level moisture and instability around parts of the eastern Great Lakes. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern features mean ridging over the West and troughing in the East. The pattern is anchored by a large, nearly stacked cyclone -- resulting from the combination of an antecedent midlatitude low with the post-tropical remnants of Helene. The cyclone should remain centered over the lower Ohio Valley region, drifting/wobbling erratically eastward over northern KY through the period, while continuing to fill. The strongest associated mid/ upper-level winds should remain mostly behind a low-level frontal zone extending from the northern Gulf across northern FL to the coastal Carolinas. South of the boundary across parts of peninsular FL, sufficient low-level moisture remains -- amid weak to negligible MLCINH and a deep troposphere with modest but sufficient lapse rates for convection. This will support scattered thunderstorms today over FL, with isolated thunderstorm potential over coastal areas of GA/Carolinas near the boundary. Dry midlevel air and lack of greater flow/shear should keep severe potential too isolated and disorganized for an outlook. Elsewhere, just east of the mean ridge and amid northerly flow very peripheral to the cyclone, a patch of marginally favorable low/ middle-level moisture should combine with diurnal heating of higher terrain over parts of northern NM and southern CO. Scattered showers are expected this afternoon, with isolated to widely scattered convection extending above a mid/upper-level stable layer and into icing regions suitable for lightning generation. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible amid weak but sufficient low-level moisture and instability around parts of the eastern Great Lakes. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/28/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281142
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form during the early to middle part
of next week off the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico. Some
slow development is possible thereafter while the system drifts
generally westward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... By the middle of next week, upper-level flow across the CONUS is expected to become more zonal and the jet stream will be generally located along the Canadian border. The more pronounced troughs in the northern CONUS will help to push cooler drier air into much of the country. A modestly moist airmass will be limited to portions of the Southeast. Broadly stable conditions will limit severe thunderstorm potential at least through the end of the week. Model guidance shows some potential for flow aloft to amplify next weekend. This could encourage moisture return northward. However, the quality of this moisture as well as the timing of upper-level troughs is highly uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... By the middle of next week, upper-level flow across the CONUS is expected to become more zonal and the jet stream will be generally located along the Canadian border. The more pronounced troughs in the northern CONUS will help to push cooler drier air into much of the country. A modestly moist airmass will be limited to portions of the Southeast. Broadly stable conditions will limit severe thunderstorm potential at least through the end of the week. Model guidance shows some potential for flow aloft to amplify next weekend. This could encourage moisture return northward. However, the quality of this moisture as well as the timing of upper-level troughs is highly uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... By the middle of next week, upper-level flow across the CONUS is expected to become more zonal and the jet stream will be generally located along the Canadian border. The more pronounced troughs in the northern CONUS will help to push cooler drier air into much of the country. A modestly moist airmass will be limited to portions of the Southeast. Broadly stable conditions will limit severe thunderstorm potential at least through the end of the week. Model guidance shows some potential for flow aloft to amplify next weekend. This could encourage moisture return northward. However, the quality of this moisture as well as the timing of upper-level troughs is highly uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... By the middle of next week, upper-level flow across the CONUS is expected to become more zonal and the jet stream will be generally located along the Canadian border. The more pronounced troughs in the northern CONUS will help to push cooler drier air into much of the country. A modestly moist airmass will be limited to portions of the Southeast. Broadly stable conditions will limit severe thunderstorm potential at least through the end of the week. Model guidance shows some potential for flow aloft to amplify next weekend. This could encourage moisture return northward. However, the quality of this moisture as well as the timing of upper-level troughs is highly uncertain this far in advance. Read more