Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Oct 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern
Mexico.

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP97):
An area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, in close proximity to Tropical
Depression Eleven-E. Recent microwave imagery and satellite-wind
data suggests these two features have moved closer together and are
interacting. Given their proximity, it is becoming increasingly
possible that EP97 will merge with the tropical depression. Thus,
this system's chances for tropical cyclone development are
decreasing. However, if this system is able to survive, it is
forecast to begin moving slowly west-northwestward later this week,
parallel to the coast of Mexico when conditions could become more
favorable for development. Regardless, this system is expected to
add to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial rainfall
last week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this
system along with Tropical Depression Eleven-E.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 3A

9 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 600 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021132 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 600 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 95.8W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 95.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (8 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area late tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area today and tonight. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

9 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020845 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 Data from both ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometers show that the center of the small circulation is located somewhat west to west-southwest of the earlier track. There were a couple of scatterometer vectors showing minimal tropical-storm-force winds, but these appear to be rain-inflated. The advisory intensity is kept at 30 kt based on subjective and objective satellite estimates, and the unimpressive appearance of the system. With the re-positioning of the estimated center, the motion is highly uncertain but my best guess is around 290/5 kt. The track forecast is also quite uncertain, but needs to be shifted westward from the previous one. The new official forecast is a compromise between the previous NHC prediction, the trajectory model forecasts, and the dynamical models which are farther south. The cyclone continues to have the potential for a little strengthening before it reaches the coast, although fairly strong northeasterly vertical wind shear will likely limit its intensification. The official intensity forecast is near the upper end of the model guidance. The main impact from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico. Since the system is now farther west than earlier indicated, the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward along the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 15.4N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 15.5N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.6N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 15.7N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 16.1N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

9 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 020844 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P ANGEL 34 16 12(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) P ANGEL 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATULCO 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 95W 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 3

9 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 449 WTPZ31 KNHC 020844 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...DEPRESSION FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 95.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning westward along the southern coast of Mexico to Lagunas de Chacahua, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch east of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the depression is located farther west than previously estimated. At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 95.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area late tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area today and tonight. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 3

9 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 020843 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 95.8W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 95.8W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 95.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.5N 96.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.6N 96.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.7N 97.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.1N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 95.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster

SPC Oct 2, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will move through the Northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. An attendant cold front will move eastward along with the trough. This system will then move into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday before digging southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Thereafter, models forecast upper ridging to build in across much of the CONUS by the middle of next week, broadly reducing severe weather potential in the process. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Forcing from the upper-level trough will be strong on Saturday. Storms could develop along the cold front and wind shear would be sufficient for organized storms. Uncertainty remains rather high as the quality of moisture return along the western flank of the anticyclone to the east will be key to overall magnitude of severe potential, should any materialize. ...Upper Ohio Valley... As the upper trough and cold front continue eastward, some destabilization could occur ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon. As with Saturday, moisture quality ahead of the front remains a major question. Severe potential remains uncertain. Read more

SPC Oct 2, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will move through the Northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. An attendant cold front will move eastward along with the trough. This system will then move into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday before digging southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Thereafter, models forecast upper ridging to build in across much of the CONUS by the middle of next week, broadly reducing severe weather potential in the process. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Forcing from the upper-level trough will be strong on Saturday. Storms could develop along the cold front and wind shear would be sufficient for organized storms. Uncertainty remains rather high as the quality of moisture return along the western flank of the anticyclone to the east will be key to overall magnitude of severe potential, should any materialize. ...Upper Ohio Valley... As the upper trough and cold front continue eastward, some destabilization could occur ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon. As with Saturday, moisture quality ahead of the front remains a major question. Severe potential remains uncertain. Read more

SPC Oct 2, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will move through the Northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. An attendant cold front will move eastward along with the trough. This system will then move into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday before digging southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Thereafter, models forecast upper ridging to build in across much of the CONUS by the middle of next week, broadly reducing severe weather potential in the process. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Forcing from the upper-level trough will be strong on Saturday. Storms could develop along the cold front and wind shear would be sufficient for organized storms. Uncertainty remains rather high as the quality of moisture return along the western flank of the anticyclone to the east will be key to overall magnitude of severe potential, should any materialize. ...Upper Ohio Valley... As the upper trough and cold front continue eastward, some destabilization could occur ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon. As with Saturday, moisture quality ahead of the front remains a major question. Severe potential remains uncertain. Read more

SPC Oct 2, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will move through the Northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. An attendant cold front will move eastward along with the trough. This system will then move into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday before digging southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Thereafter, models forecast upper ridging to build in across much of the CONUS by the middle of next week, broadly reducing severe weather potential in the process. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Forcing from the upper-level trough will be strong on Saturday. Storms could develop along the cold front and wind shear would be sufficient for organized storms. Uncertainty remains rather high as the quality of moisture return along the western flank of the anticyclone to the east will be key to overall magnitude of severe potential, should any materialize. ...Upper Ohio Valley... As the upper trough and cold front continue eastward, some destabilization could occur ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon. As with Saturday, moisture quality ahead of the front remains a major question. Severe potential remains uncertain. Read more

SPC Oct 2, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will move through the Northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. An attendant cold front will move eastward along with the trough. This system will then move into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday before digging southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Thereafter, models forecast upper ridging to build in across much of the CONUS by the middle of next week, broadly reducing severe weather potential in the process. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Forcing from the upper-level trough will be strong on Saturday. Storms could develop along the cold front and wind shear would be sufficient for organized storms. Uncertainty remains rather high as the quality of moisture return along the western flank of the anticyclone to the east will be key to overall magnitude of severe potential, should any materialize. ...Upper Ohio Valley... As the upper trough and cold front continue eastward, some destabilization could occur ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon. As with Saturday, moisture quality ahead of the front remains a major question. Severe potential remains uncertain. Read more

SPC Oct 2, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will move through the Northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. An attendant cold front will move eastward along with the trough. This system will then move into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday before digging southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Thereafter, models forecast upper ridging to build in across much of the CONUS by the middle of next week, broadly reducing severe weather potential in the process. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Forcing from the upper-level trough will be strong on Saturday. Storms could develop along the cold front and wind shear would be sufficient for organized storms. Uncertainty remains rather high as the quality of moisture return along the western flank of the anticyclone to the east will be key to overall magnitude of severe potential, should any materialize. ...Upper Ohio Valley... As the upper trough and cold front continue eastward, some destabilization could occur ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon. As with Saturday, moisture quality ahead of the front remains a major question. Severe potential remains uncertain. Read more

SPC Oct 2, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in the southern half of the CONUS on Friday. A lead upper-level shortwave will move through the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while a stronger trough will move through the Northwest and northern Rockies. At the surface a cold front will progress eastward together with the lead trough into the Northeast, reaching southwestward into the central Plains. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the Canadian Prairie in response to the western upper trough. Thunderstorms will again be possible along the Gulf Coast near the remnant, weak boundary. Diurnally driven storms are also expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula. Additional storms may develop in the southern Appalachians with a northward moving weak disturbance. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in central Idaho as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the terrain. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 2, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in the southern half of the CONUS on Friday. A lead upper-level shortwave will move through the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while a stronger trough will move through the Northwest and northern Rockies. At the surface a cold front will progress eastward together with the lead trough into the Northeast, reaching southwestward into the central Plains. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the Canadian Prairie in response to the western upper trough. Thunderstorms will again be possible along the Gulf Coast near the remnant, weak boundary. Diurnally driven storms are also expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula. Additional storms may develop in the southern Appalachians with a northward moving weak disturbance. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in central Idaho as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the terrain. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 2, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in the southern half of the CONUS on Friday. A lead upper-level shortwave will move through the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while a stronger trough will move through the Northwest and northern Rockies. At the surface a cold front will progress eastward together with the lead trough into the Northeast, reaching southwestward into the central Plains. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the Canadian Prairie in response to the western upper trough. Thunderstorms will again be possible along the Gulf Coast near the remnant, weak boundary. Diurnally driven storms are also expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula. Additional storms may develop in the southern Appalachians with a northward moving weak disturbance. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in central Idaho as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the terrain. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 2, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in the southern half of the CONUS on Friday. A lead upper-level shortwave will move through the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while a stronger trough will move through the Northwest and northern Rockies. At the surface a cold front will progress eastward together with the lead trough into the Northeast, reaching southwestward into the central Plains. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the Canadian Prairie in response to the western upper trough. Thunderstorms will again be possible along the Gulf Coast near the remnant, weak boundary. Diurnally driven storms are also expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula. Additional storms may develop in the southern Appalachians with a northward moving weak disturbance. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in central Idaho as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the terrain. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more