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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will amplify further today as it moves from the eastern Pacific across the western states. Low-topped showers across parts of coastal WA/OR may be capable of producing occasional lightning flashes, as mid-level temperatures beneath the upper trough remain rather cool, which is supporting weak MUCAPE. But, better forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough will overspread portions of the Great Basin and central Rockies through the period, where isolated thunderstorms may occur even though moisture will be quite limited. A separate area of isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential remains evident across parts of the Great Lakes tonight, as warm/moist advection increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Weak instability will limit the severe threat across all these regions, and severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will amplify further today as it moves from the eastern Pacific across the western states. Low-topped showers across parts of coastal WA/OR may be capable of producing occasional lightning flashes, as mid-level temperatures beneath the upper trough remain rather cool, which is supporting weak MUCAPE. But, better forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough will overspread portions of the Great Basin and central Rockies through the period, where isolated thunderstorms may occur even though moisture will be quite limited. A separate area of isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential remains evident across parts of the Great Lakes tonight, as warm/moist advection increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Weak instability will limit the severe threat across all these regions, and severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will amplify further today as it moves from the eastern Pacific across the western states. Low-topped showers across parts of coastal WA/OR may be capable of producing occasional lightning flashes, as mid-level temperatures beneath the upper trough remain rather cool, which is supporting weak MUCAPE. But, better forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough will overspread portions of the Great Basin and central Rockies through the period, where isolated thunderstorms may occur even though moisture will be quite limited. A separate area of isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential remains evident across parts of the Great Lakes tonight, as warm/moist advection increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Weak instability will limit the severe threat across all these regions, and severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will amplify further today as it moves from the eastern Pacific across the western states. Low-topped showers across parts of coastal WA/OR may be capable of producing occasional lightning flashes, as mid-level temperatures beneath the upper trough remain rather cool, which is supporting weak MUCAPE. But, better forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough will overspread portions of the Great Basin and central Rockies through the period, where isolated thunderstorms may occur even though moisture will be quite limited. A separate area of isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential remains evident across parts of the Great Lakes tonight, as warm/moist advection increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Weak instability will limit the severe threat across all these regions, and severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will amplify further today as it moves from the eastern Pacific across the western states. Low-topped showers across parts of coastal WA/OR may be capable of producing occasional lightning flashes, as mid-level temperatures beneath the upper trough remain rather cool, which is supporting weak MUCAPE. But, better forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough will overspread portions of the Great Basin and central Rockies through the period, where isolated thunderstorms may occur even though moisture will be quite limited. A separate area of isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential remains evident across parts of the Great Lakes tonight, as warm/moist advection increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Weak instability will limit the severe threat across all these regions, and severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will amplify further today as it moves from the eastern Pacific across the western states. Low-topped showers across parts of coastal WA/OR may be capable of producing occasional lightning flashes, as mid-level temperatures beneath the upper trough remain rather cool, which is supporting weak MUCAPE. But, better forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough will overspread portions of the Great Basin and central Rockies through the period, where isolated thunderstorms may occur even though moisture will be quite limited. A separate area of isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential remains evident across parts of the Great Lakes tonight, as warm/moist advection increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Weak instability will limit the severe threat across all these regions, and severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will amplify further today as it moves from the eastern Pacific across the western states. Low-topped showers across parts of coastal WA/OR may be capable of producing occasional lightning flashes, as mid-level temperatures beneath the upper trough remain rather cool, which is supporting weak MUCAPE. But, better forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough will overspread portions of the Great Basin and central Rockies through the period, where isolated thunderstorms may occur even though moisture will be quite limited. A separate area of isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential remains evident across parts of the Great Lakes tonight, as warm/moist advection increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Weak instability will limit the severe threat across all these regions, and severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... Deep convective potential will remain limited today with severe storms not expected. This will be influenced by an amplifying large-scale pattern, highlights by strong height falls over the West, particularly across the Great Basin to central/southern Rockies. In this scenario, steep lapse rate profiles may support a few flashes of lightning with shallow convection near the Pacific Coast today. Increasing forcing for ascent and steepening lapse rates across the interior Great Basin/Four Corners may contribute to isolated convection, some of which may generate lightning later this afternoon into evening. Later tonight, primarily after 03Z, elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes. This will be a byproduct of a robustly strong southwesterly low-level jet and warm advection regime emanating from the central Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... Deep convective potential will remain limited today with severe storms not expected. This will be influenced by an amplifying large-scale pattern, highlights by strong height falls over the West, particularly across the Great Basin to central/southern Rockies. In this scenario, steep lapse rate profiles may support a few flashes of lightning with shallow convection near the Pacific Coast today. Increasing forcing for ascent and steepening lapse rates across the interior Great Basin/Four Corners may contribute to isolated convection, some of which may generate lightning later this afternoon into evening. Later tonight, primarily after 03Z, elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes. This will be a byproduct of a robustly strong southwesterly low-level jet and warm advection regime emanating from the central Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... Deep convective potential will remain limited today with severe storms not expected. This will be influenced by an amplifying large-scale pattern, highlights by strong height falls over the West, particularly across the Great Basin to central/southern Rockies. In this scenario, steep lapse rate profiles may support a few flashes of lightning with shallow convection near the Pacific Coast today. Increasing forcing for ascent and steepening lapse rates across the interior Great Basin/Four Corners may contribute to isolated convection, some of which may generate lightning later this afternoon into evening. Later tonight, primarily after 03Z, elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes. This will be a byproduct of a robustly strong southwesterly low-level jet and warm advection regime emanating from the central Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... Deep convective potential will remain limited today with severe storms not expected. This will be influenced by an amplifying large-scale pattern, highlights by strong height falls over the West, particularly across the Great Basin to central/southern Rockies. In this scenario, steep lapse rate profiles may support a few flashes of lightning with shallow convection near the Pacific Coast today. Increasing forcing for ascent and steepening lapse rates across the interior Great Basin/Four Corners may contribute to isolated convection, some of which may generate lightning later this afternoon into evening. Later tonight, primarily after 03Z, elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes. This will be a byproduct of a robustly strong southwesterly low-level jet and warm advection regime emanating from the central Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/28/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281157
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions appear
generally conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form within the next few days while it
moves westward at about 15 mph. This system is expected to move
into the central Pacific basin by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Central East Pacific:
A weak area of low pressure has formed about 1000 miles southwest of
the southwestern coast of Mexico. Some slow development is possible
during the next 3 to 4 days while the low moves slowly to the
west-northwest. By the end of the week, however, strong upper-level
winds should end the chances of development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Adams

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and into the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm development will be likely near and ahead of the front Thursday afternoon and evening. Weak instability and limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat marginal. From Friday into Saturday, low-level moisture return is expected to take place further west into the southern Plains. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Friday over parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas, with an isolated severe threat possible. On Saturday, moisture and instability is forecast to increase across the southern and central Plains, which could result in an expansion of severe threat coverage. However, the latest models suggest that instability will be relatively weak in most areas, helping to marginalize the severe threat. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday and Monday, an upper-level system is forecast to move from near the southern California coast into northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the system, an anticyclonic and subtle southwesterly mid-level flow pattern is forecast in the south-central U.S, where a moist airmass should be located. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop on both Sunday and Monday afternoons with this airmass. The strongest instability is forecast to be near the western edge of the moist airmass, suggesting the greatest severe potential could be from west Texas extending north-northeastward into the central Plains. Forecast instability should be relatively weak, keeping any severe threat marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and into the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm development will be likely near and ahead of the front Thursday afternoon and evening. Weak instability and limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat marginal. From Friday into Saturday, low-level moisture return is expected to take place further west into the southern Plains. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Friday over parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas, with an isolated severe threat possible. On Saturday, moisture and instability is forecast to increase across the southern and central Plains, which could result in an expansion of severe threat coverage. However, the latest models suggest that instability will be relatively weak in most areas, helping to marginalize the severe threat. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday and Monday, an upper-level system is forecast to move from near the southern California coast into northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the system, an anticyclonic and subtle southwesterly mid-level flow pattern is forecast in the south-central U.S, where a moist airmass should be located. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop on both Sunday and Monday afternoons with this airmass. The strongest instability is forecast to be near the western edge of the moist airmass, suggesting the greatest severe potential could be from west Texas extending north-northeastward into the central Plains. Forecast instability should be relatively weak, keeping any severe threat marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and into the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm development will be likely near and ahead of the front Thursday afternoon and evening. Weak instability and limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat marginal. From Friday into Saturday, low-level moisture return is expected to take place further west into the southern Plains. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Friday over parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas, with an isolated severe threat possible. On Saturday, moisture and instability is forecast to increase across the southern and central Plains, which could result in an expansion of severe threat coverage. However, the latest models suggest that instability will be relatively weak in most areas, helping to marginalize the severe threat. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday and Monday, an upper-level system is forecast to move from near the southern California coast into northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the system, an anticyclonic and subtle southwesterly mid-level flow pattern is forecast in the south-central U.S, where a moist airmass should be located. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop on both Sunday and Monday afternoons with this airmass. The strongest instability is forecast to be near the western edge of the moist airmass, suggesting the greatest severe potential could be from west Texas extending north-northeastward into the central Plains. Forecast instability should be relatively weak, keeping any severe threat marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and into the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm development will be likely near and ahead of the front Thursday afternoon and evening. Weak instability and limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat marginal. From Friday into Saturday, low-level moisture return is expected to take place further west into the southern Plains. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Friday over parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas, with an isolated severe threat possible. On Saturday, moisture and instability is forecast to increase across the southern and central Plains, which could result in an expansion of severe threat coverage. However, the latest models suggest that instability will be relatively weak in most areas, helping to marginalize the severe threat. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday and Monday, an upper-level system is forecast to move from near the southern California coast into northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the system, an anticyclonic and subtle southwesterly mid-level flow pattern is forecast in the south-central U.S, where a moist airmass should be located. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop on both Sunday and Monday afternoons with this airmass. The strongest instability is forecast to be near the western edge of the moist airmass, suggesting the greatest severe potential could be from west Texas extending north-northeastward into the central Plains. Forecast instability should be relatively weak, keeping any severe threat marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and into the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm development will be likely near and ahead of the front Thursday afternoon and evening. Weak instability and limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat marginal. From Friday into Saturday, low-level moisture return is expected to take place further west into the southern Plains. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Friday over parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas, with an isolated severe threat possible. On Saturday, moisture and instability is forecast to increase across the southern and central Plains, which could result in an expansion of severe threat coverage. However, the latest models suggest that instability will be relatively weak in most areas, helping to marginalize the severe threat. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday and Monday, an upper-level system is forecast to move from near the southern California coast into northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the system, an anticyclonic and subtle southwesterly mid-level flow pattern is forecast in the south-central U.S, where a moist airmass should be located. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop on both Sunday and Monday afternoons with this airmass. The strongest instability is forecast to be near the western edge of the moist airmass, suggesting the greatest severe potential could be from west Texas extending north-northeastward into the central Plains. Forecast instability should be relatively weak, keeping any severe threat marginal. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts and large hail, are expected to develop on Wednesday from the southern Plains northward into eastern parts of the central Plains, and eastward into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the central Plains on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves into the lower Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward across the central and southern Plains, with a dryline situated from central Oklahoma south-southwestward into west Texas. As surface temperatures warm and as low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorm development is expected to take place during the afternoon from central Kansas southward into western Oklahoma. During the mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to move eastward across eastern Kansas and central to eastern Oklahoma. Some severe thunderstorms appear likely to develop. As convective coverage increases during the evening, an MCS may form across the region. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s F, with a narrow axis of moderate instability located in central and eastern Oklahoma. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon and early evening have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. This should be favorable for supercell development. However, a mixed mode could be prevalent, especially further north into the central Plains, where instability is forecast to be weaker. The stronger rotating storms could be associated with large hail and wind damage. Model consensus has the greatest severe threat developing during the late afternoon and early evening at the southern end of the low-level jet, from southern Oklahoma into north Texas. At this point, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be relatively poor, which should be a limiting factor. This could somewhat temper the magnitude of the severe threat. ..Broyles.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts and large hail, are expected to develop on Wednesday from the southern Plains northward into eastern parts of the central Plains, and eastward into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the central Plains on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves into the lower Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward across the central and southern Plains, with a dryline situated from central Oklahoma south-southwestward into west Texas. As surface temperatures warm and as low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorm development is expected to take place during the afternoon from central Kansas southward into western Oklahoma. During the mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to move eastward across eastern Kansas and central to eastern Oklahoma. Some severe thunderstorms appear likely to develop. As convective coverage increases during the evening, an MCS may form across the region. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s F, with a narrow axis of moderate instability located in central and eastern Oklahoma. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon and early evening have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. This should be favorable for supercell development. However, a mixed mode could be prevalent, especially further north into the central Plains, where instability is forecast to be weaker. The stronger rotating storms could be associated with large hail and wind damage. Model consensus has the greatest severe threat developing during the late afternoon and early evening at the southern end of the low-level jet, from southern Oklahoma into north Texas. At this point, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be relatively poor, which should be a limiting factor. This could somewhat temper the magnitude of the severe threat. ..Broyles.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts and large hail, are expected to develop on Wednesday from the southern Plains northward into eastern parts of the central Plains, and eastward into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the central Plains on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves into the lower Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward across the central and southern Plains, with a dryline situated from central Oklahoma south-southwestward into west Texas. As surface temperatures warm and as low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorm development is expected to take place during the afternoon from central Kansas southward into western Oklahoma. During the mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to move eastward across eastern Kansas and central to eastern Oklahoma. Some severe thunderstorms appear likely to develop. As convective coverage increases during the evening, an MCS may form across the region. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s F, with a narrow axis of moderate instability located in central and eastern Oklahoma. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon and early evening have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. This should be favorable for supercell development. However, a mixed mode could be prevalent, especially further north into the central Plains, where instability is forecast to be weaker. The stronger rotating storms could be associated with large hail and wind damage. Model consensus has the greatest severe threat developing during the late afternoon and early evening at the southern end of the low-level jet, from southern Oklahoma into north Texas. At this point, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be relatively poor, which should be a limiting factor. This could somewhat temper the magnitude of the severe threat. ..Broyles.. 10/28/2024 Read more