Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ... Mid-Atlantic to southern New England ... South of the ongoing elevated fire weather highlights a very dry airmass will remain in place, with relative humidity falling into the low 20s to perhaps even the upper teens in localized areas. Current wind forecasts (less than 10 mph) should limit extreme fire behavior as compared to areas farther north, which is why the existing elevated area was not extended southward. That said, the dry airmass and record dry fuels in place will certainly support an increase in fire starts and initial attack. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough over the western US is forecast to amplify as southwesterly flow over much of the western US increases. A lee trough over the High Plains will bolster downslope surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England behind an offshore cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... Increasingly strong west/southwest flow ahead of the trough will support gusty winds across the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Near a lee trough, downslope winds of 15-20 mph are likely, coincident with a relatively dry air mass with RH values near 20%. Sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of central MT, eastern WY, and into western parts of the Dakotas and NE/CO. Here, fuels are the most receptive and the longest overlap of favorable meteorological conditions is expected. ...Southern New England... While slightly weaker than prior days, offshore flow should continue across parts of the East Coast and southern New England today. Gusty winds near 15 mph are possible, mainly closer to the coast, where RH values are still expected to be near 30-35%. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within record dry fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and cooler air mass will moderate RH values into Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ... Mid-Atlantic to southern New England ... South of the ongoing elevated fire weather highlights a very dry airmass will remain in place, with relative humidity falling into the low 20s to perhaps even the upper teens in localized areas. Current wind forecasts (less than 10 mph) should limit extreme fire behavior as compared to areas farther north, which is why the existing elevated area was not extended southward. That said, the dry airmass and record dry fuels in place will certainly support an increase in fire starts and initial attack. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough over the western US is forecast to amplify as southwesterly flow over much of the western US increases. A lee trough over the High Plains will bolster downslope surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England behind an offshore cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... Increasingly strong west/southwest flow ahead of the trough will support gusty winds across the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Near a lee trough, downslope winds of 15-20 mph are likely, coincident with a relatively dry air mass with RH values near 20%. Sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of central MT, eastern WY, and into western parts of the Dakotas and NE/CO. Here, fuels are the most receptive and the longest overlap of favorable meteorological conditions is expected. ...Southern New England... While slightly weaker than prior days, offshore flow should continue across parts of the East Coast and southern New England today. Gusty winds near 15 mph are possible, mainly closer to the coast, where RH values are still expected to be near 30-35%. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within record dry fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and cooler air mass will moderate RH values into Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ... Mid-Atlantic to southern New England ... South of the ongoing elevated fire weather highlights a very dry airmass will remain in place, with relative humidity falling into the low 20s to perhaps even the upper teens in localized areas. Current wind forecasts (less than 10 mph) should limit extreme fire behavior as compared to areas farther north, which is why the existing elevated area was not extended southward. That said, the dry airmass and record dry fuels in place will certainly support an increase in fire starts and initial attack. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough over the western US is forecast to amplify as southwesterly flow over much of the western US increases. A lee trough over the High Plains will bolster downslope surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England behind an offshore cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... Increasingly strong west/southwest flow ahead of the trough will support gusty winds across the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Near a lee trough, downslope winds of 15-20 mph are likely, coincident with a relatively dry air mass with RH values near 20%. Sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of central MT, eastern WY, and into western parts of the Dakotas and NE/CO. Here, fuels are the most receptive and the longest overlap of favorable meteorological conditions is expected. ...Southern New England... While slightly weaker than prior days, offshore flow should continue across parts of the East Coast and southern New England today. Gusty winds near 15 mph are possible, mainly closer to the coast, where RH values are still expected to be near 30-35%. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within record dry fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and cooler air mass will moderate RH values into Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ... Mid-Atlantic to southern New England ... South of the ongoing elevated fire weather highlights a very dry airmass will remain in place, with relative humidity falling into the low 20s to perhaps even the upper teens in localized areas. Current wind forecasts (less than 10 mph) should limit extreme fire behavior as compared to areas farther north, which is why the existing elevated area was not extended southward. That said, the dry airmass and record dry fuels in place will certainly support an increase in fire starts and initial attack. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough over the western US is forecast to amplify as southwesterly flow over much of the western US increases. A lee trough over the High Plains will bolster downslope surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England behind an offshore cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... Increasingly strong west/southwest flow ahead of the trough will support gusty winds across the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Near a lee trough, downslope winds of 15-20 mph are likely, coincident with a relatively dry air mass with RH values near 20%. Sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of central MT, eastern WY, and into western parts of the Dakotas and NE/CO. Here, fuels are the most receptive and the longest overlap of favorable meteorological conditions is expected. ...Southern New England... While slightly weaker than prior days, offshore flow should continue across parts of the East Coast and southern New England today. Gusty winds near 15 mph are possible, mainly closer to the coast, where RH values are still expected to be near 30-35%. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within record dry fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and cooler air mass will moderate RH values into Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm potential this evening and overnight. Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where a surface front is currently located, this feature should support convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm potential this evening and overnight. Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where a surface front is currently located, this feature should support convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm potential this evening and overnight. Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where a surface front is currently located, this feature should support convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm potential this evening and overnight. Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where a surface front is currently located, this feature should support convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm potential this evening and overnight. Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where a surface front is currently located, this feature should support convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm potential this evening and overnight. Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where a surface front is currently located, this feature should support convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong height falls will develop across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching and amplifying shortwave trough. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge by late morning into afternoon. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may influence isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary, and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy and lapse rates for parcels to potentially reach levels required for lightning. A few lightning flashes may also occur mainly this morning across parts of the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley. ..Guyer.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong height falls will develop across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching and amplifying shortwave trough. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge by late morning into afternoon. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may influence isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary, and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy and lapse rates for parcels to potentially reach levels required for lightning. A few lightning flashes may also occur mainly this morning across parts of the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley. ..Guyer.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong height falls will develop across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching and amplifying shortwave trough. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge by late morning into afternoon. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may influence isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary, and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy and lapse rates for parcels to potentially reach levels required for lightning. A few lightning flashes may also occur mainly this morning across parts of the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley. ..Guyer.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong height falls will develop across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching and amplifying shortwave trough. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge by late morning into afternoon. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may influence isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary, and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy and lapse rates for parcels to potentially reach levels required for lightning. A few lightning flashes may also occur mainly this morning across parts of the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley. ..Guyer.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong height falls will develop across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching and amplifying shortwave trough. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge by late morning into afternoon. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may influence isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary, and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy and lapse rates for parcels to potentially reach levels required for lightning. A few lightning flashes may also occur mainly this morning across parts of the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley. ..Guyer.. 10/27/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central Rockies and northern Plains on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move east-southeastward across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Sufficient instability combined with strong low-level flow, and lift associated with the upper-level trough will be favorable for severe storms across parts of the region. The most favorable area for severe storms appears to be from north Texas and Oklahoma northeastward into western and northern Missouri. GFS forecast soundings along this corridor during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 40 and 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. If this environement can materialize, supercell development with large hail and severe wind gusts could occur. A chance for very large hail will be possible with the more intense cells. An isolated tornado threat also appears possible. On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as the cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along parts of the front where surface temperatures are able to warm sufficiently. The strongest low to mid-level flow is forecast over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley suggesting that the potential for organized severe convection could be displaced away from the strongest instability. Even so, instability is forecast to remain weak which appears to be the main limiting factor. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... On Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the north-central U.S., as moisture return takes place in western parts of the southern Plains. It appears that thunderstorm development will be possible across parts of west Texas within the northwestern part of a moist airmass. Large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relative weak suggesting that any severe threat could be isolated. On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over the Great Plains, as low-level moisture advection continues. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this moist airmass as surface temperatures warm during the day. At this time, forecast instability and shear appear marginal for severe storms, and any organized convection should be relatively isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central Rockies and northern Plains on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move east-southeastward across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Sufficient instability combined with strong low-level flow, and lift associated with the upper-level trough will be favorable for severe storms across parts of the region. The most favorable area for severe storms appears to be from north Texas and Oklahoma northeastward into western and northern Missouri. GFS forecast soundings along this corridor during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 40 and 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. If this environement can materialize, supercell development with large hail and severe wind gusts could occur. A chance for very large hail will be possible with the more intense cells. An isolated tornado threat also appears possible. On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as the cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along parts of the front where surface temperatures are able to warm sufficiently. The strongest low to mid-level flow is forecast over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley suggesting that the potential for organized severe convection could be displaced away from the strongest instability. Even so, instability is forecast to remain weak which appears to be the main limiting factor. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... On Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the north-central U.S., as moisture return takes place in western parts of the southern Plains. It appears that thunderstorm development will be possible across parts of west Texas within the northwestern part of a moist airmass. Large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relative weak suggesting that any severe threat could be isolated. On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over the Great Plains, as low-level moisture advection continues. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this moist airmass as surface temperatures warm during the day. At this time, forecast instability and shear appear marginal for severe storms, and any organized convection should be relatively isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central Rockies and northern Plains on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move east-southeastward across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Sufficient instability combined with strong low-level flow, and lift associated with the upper-level trough will be favorable for severe storms across parts of the region. The most favorable area for severe storms appears to be from north Texas and Oklahoma northeastward into western and northern Missouri. GFS forecast soundings along this corridor during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 40 and 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. If this environement can materialize, supercell development with large hail and severe wind gusts could occur. A chance for very large hail will be possible with the more intense cells. An isolated tornado threat also appears possible. On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as the cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along parts of the front where surface temperatures are able to warm sufficiently. The strongest low to mid-level flow is forecast over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley suggesting that the potential for organized severe convection could be displaced away from the strongest instability. Even so, instability is forecast to remain weak which appears to be the main limiting factor. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... On Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the north-central U.S., as moisture return takes place in western parts of the southern Plains. It appears that thunderstorm development will be possible across parts of west Texas within the northwestern part of a moist airmass. Large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relative weak suggesting that any severe threat could be isolated. On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over the Great Plains, as low-level moisture advection continues. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this moist airmass as surface temperatures warm during the day. At this time, forecast instability and shear appear marginal for severe storms, and any organized convection should be relatively isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central Rockies and northern Plains on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move east-southeastward across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Sufficient instability combined with strong low-level flow, and lift associated with the upper-level trough will be favorable for severe storms across parts of the region. The most favorable area for severe storms appears to be from north Texas and Oklahoma northeastward into western and northern Missouri. GFS forecast soundings along this corridor during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 40 and 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. If this environement can materialize, supercell development with large hail and severe wind gusts could occur. A chance for very large hail will be possible with the more intense cells. An isolated tornado threat also appears possible. On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as the cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along parts of the front where surface temperatures are able to warm sufficiently. The strongest low to mid-level flow is forecast over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley suggesting that the potential for organized severe convection could be displaced away from the strongest instability. Even so, instability is forecast to remain weak which appears to be the main limiting factor. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... On Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the north-central U.S., as moisture return takes place in western parts of the southern Plains. It appears that thunderstorm development will be possible across parts of west Texas within the northwestern part of a moist airmass. Large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relative weak suggesting that any severe threat could be isolated. On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over the Great Plains, as low-level moisture advection continues. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this moist airmass as surface temperatures warm during the day. At this time, forecast instability and shear appear marginal for severe storms, and any organized convection should be relatively isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central Rockies and northern Plains on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move east-southeastward across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Sufficient instability combined with strong low-level flow, and lift associated with the upper-level trough will be favorable for severe storms across parts of the region. The most favorable area for severe storms appears to be from north Texas and Oklahoma northeastward into western and northern Missouri. GFS forecast soundings along this corridor during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 40 and 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. If this environement can materialize, supercell development with large hail and severe wind gusts could occur. A chance for very large hail will be possible with the more intense cells. An isolated tornado threat also appears possible. On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as the cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along parts of the front where surface temperatures are able to warm sufficiently. The strongest low to mid-level flow is forecast over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley suggesting that the potential for organized severe convection could be displaced away from the strongest instability. Even so, instability is forecast to remain weak which appears to be the main limiting factor. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... On Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the north-central U.S., as moisture return takes place in western parts of the southern Plains. It appears that thunderstorm development will be possible across parts of west Texas within the northwestern part of a moist airmass. Large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relative weak suggesting that any severe threat could be isolated. On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over the Great Plains, as low-level moisture advection continues. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this moist airmass as surface temperatures warm during the day. At this time, forecast instability and shear appear marginal for severe storms, and any organized convection should be relatively isolated. Read more