Aggregator

The Army Corps of Engineers reduced the flow of the Kansas River at De Soto from 1,000 cubic feet per second to 750 cfs. At Topeka, the flow was slowed from 750 cfs to 600 cfs. The flow reduction was part of the drought contingency plan for the largest reservoirs in northeast Kansas that connect to the Kansas River. KSNT 27 News (Topeka, Kan.), Oct 28, 2024

The majority of the several hundred New Jersey wildfires that sparked in October continued to burn as drought persisted. Stage 3 fire restrictions, prohibiting all outdoor burning except for those in an elevated stove using certain fuels, were extended. NJ.com (Newark, N.J.), Oct 28, 2024 The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection imposed stage 3 fire restrictions in all counties on Oct. 21. “Stage 3, the highest level of restrictions, means lighting any open fires within or adjacent to wooded areas is not allowed unless they are contained in an elevated stove or barbecue grill using only propane, natural gas or electricity, the New Jersey Forest Fire Service said.” NJ.com (Newark, N.J.), Oct 22, 2024

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few flashes of lightning remain possible along the Pacific Northwest coast tonight. ...01z Update... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper trough off the Pacific Northwest coast. This feature is forecast to move inland around sunrise, and 500mb temperatures are expected to cool a few more degrees through 27/12z. Weak buoyancy is noted ahead of this feature, primarily where the boundary layer is influenced by marine conditions. 00z sounding from UIL was the most unstable profile along the coast this evening, but MLCAPE was less than 100 J/kg, though 8 c/km lapse rates were noted in the 3-6km layer. Weak convection will continue to develop within this regime, and the deepest updrafts may reach levels necessary for lightning discharge. Though thunderstorm activity should remain quite sparse, and concentrated near the water. ..Darrow.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few flashes of lightning remain possible along the Pacific Northwest coast tonight. ...01z Update... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper trough off the Pacific Northwest coast. This feature is forecast to move inland around sunrise, and 500mb temperatures are expected to cool a few more degrees through 27/12z. Weak buoyancy is noted ahead of this feature, primarily where the boundary layer is influenced by marine conditions. 00z sounding from UIL was the most unstable profile along the coast this evening, but MLCAPE was less than 100 J/kg, though 8 c/km lapse rates were noted in the 3-6km layer. Weak convection will continue to develop within this regime, and the deepest updrafts may reach levels necessary for lightning discharge. Though thunderstorm activity should remain quite sparse, and concentrated near the water. ..Darrow.. 10/28/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while
it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the
western portion of the eastern Pacific basin. This system is
expected to move into the central Pacific basin by Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Central East Pacific:
A low pressure system could form within the next day or two several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Some slow development is possible thereafter
while the system moves slowly toward the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 27 21:45:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 27 21:45:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A strong upper-level trough will move through the West during the first half of the week before ejecting into the Plains midweek. At the same time, an amplified mid-level ridge will move east from the Plains into the East resulting in near-record to record high temperatures beneath the ridge. By late week, a cooler, more moist airmass will develop across the eastern US in the wake a cold front associated with the aforementioned trough ejecting into the Plains midweek. ... Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday: Southern Plains and Southern and Central High Plains ... Strong winds will develop across the southern and central Plains on Tuesday in response to continued lee cyclogenesis over the High Plains. These southerly winds (beginning on Day 2/Monday) will draw moisture north and westward, squeezing the geographic area between strong winds and low relative humidity. At present the best overlap looks to be in a narrow ribbon from far West Texas north-northeast across eastern New Mexico, western portions of the Texas Panhandle and western Kansas/eastern Colorado. One important caveat in highlighting this corridor is that the exact location of elevated/locally critical conditions will be highly dependent upon several factors: (1) west/northwest return of low-level moisture; (2) potential cloud cover; (3) speed of ejecting trough and surface cold front. By Day 4/Wednesday, the surface low begins to move northeast into the Plains and a surface cold front will push south. To the southwest of the surface low and ahead of the cold front, a corridor of low relative humidity and increased winds will be possible. This area will be bounded by the dryline to the east and cold front to the north. Again, like Day 3/Tuesday, the area will need to be refined as confidence in the location and timing of these features comes into better focus. Elsewhere, the large-scale pattern will favor a period of northerly/offshore flow across southern California on Day 3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. However, potential preceding rains and onshore flow should prevent critical fire weather conditions from developing. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A strong upper-level trough will move through the West during the first half of the week before ejecting into the Plains midweek. At the same time, an amplified mid-level ridge will move east from the Plains into the East resulting in near-record to record high temperatures beneath the ridge. By late week, a cooler, more moist airmass will develop across the eastern US in the wake a cold front associated with the aforementioned trough ejecting into the Plains midweek. ... Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday: Southern Plains and Southern and Central High Plains ... Strong winds will develop across the southern and central Plains on Tuesday in response to continued lee cyclogenesis over the High Plains. These southerly winds (beginning on Day 2/Monday) will draw moisture north and westward, squeezing the geographic area between strong winds and low relative humidity. At present the best overlap looks to be in a narrow ribbon from far West Texas north-northeast across eastern New Mexico, western portions of the Texas Panhandle and western Kansas/eastern Colorado. One important caveat in highlighting this corridor is that the exact location of elevated/locally critical conditions will be highly dependent upon several factors: (1) west/northwest return of low-level moisture; (2) potential cloud cover; (3) speed of ejecting trough and surface cold front. By Day 4/Wednesday, the surface low begins to move northeast into the Plains and a surface cold front will push south. To the southwest of the surface low and ahead of the cold front, a corridor of low relative humidity and increased winds will be possible. This area will be bounded by the dryline to the east and cold front to the north. Again, like Day 3/Tuesday, the area will need to be refined as confidence in the location and timing of these features comes into better focus. Elsewhere, the large-scale pattern will favor a period of northerly/offshore flow across southern California on Day 3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. However, potential preceding rains and onshore flow should prevent critical fire weather conditions from developing. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A strong upper-level trough will move through the West during the first half of the week before ejecting into the Plains midweek. At the same time, an amplified mid-level ridge will move east from the Plains into the East resulting in near-record to record high temperatures beneath the ridge. By late week, a cooler, more moist airmass will develop across the eastern US in the wake a cold front associated with the aforementioned trough ejecting into the Plains midweek. ... Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday: Southern Plains and Southern and Central High Plains ... Strong winds will develop across the southern and central Plains on Tuesday in response to continued lee cyclogenesis over the High Plains. These southerly winds (beginning on Day 2/Monday) will draw moisture north and westward, squeezing the geographic area between strong winds and low relative humidity. At present the best overlap looks to be in a narrow ribbon from far West Texas north-northeast across eastern New Mexico, western portions of the Texas Panhandle and western Kansas/eastern Colorado. One important caveat in highlighting this corridor is that the exact location of elevated/locally critical conditions will be highly dependent upon several factors: (1) west/northwest return of low-level moisture; (2) potential cloud cover; (3) speed of ejecting trough and surface cold front. By Day 4/Wednesday, the surface low begins to move northeast into the Plains and a surface cold front will push south. To the southwest of the surface low and ahead of the cold front, a corridor of low relative humidity and increased winds will be possible. This area will be bounded by the dryline to the east and cold front to the north. Again, like Day 3/Tuesday, the area will need to be refined as confidence in the location and timing of these features comes into better focus. Elsewhere, the large-scale pattern will favor a period of northerly/offshore flow across southern California on Day 3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. However, potential preceding rains and onshore flow should prevent critical fire weather conditions from developing. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A strong upper-level trough will move through the West during the first half of the week before ejecting into the Plains midweek. At the same time, an amplified mid-level ridge will move east from the Plains into the East resulting in near-record to record high temperatures beneath the ridge. By late week, a cooler, more moist airmass will develop across the eastern US in the wake a cold front associated with the aforementioned trough ejecting into the Plains midweek. ... Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday: Southern Plains and Southern and Central High Plains ... Strong winds will develop across the southern and central Plains on Tuesday in response to continued lee cyclogenesis over the High Plains. These southerly winds (beginning on Day 2/Monday) will draw moisture north and westward, squeezing the geographic area between strong winds and low relative humidity. At present the best overlap looks to be in a narrow ribbon from far West Texas north-northeast across eastern New Mexico, western portions of the Texas Panhandle and western Kansas/eastern Colorado. One important caveat in highlighting this corridor is that the exact location of elevated/locally critical conditions will be highly dependent upon several factors: (1) west/northwest return of low-level moisture; (2) potential cloud cover; (3) speed of ejecting trough and surface cold front. By Day 4/Wednesday, the surface low begins to move northeast into the Plains and a surface cold front will push south. To the southwest of the surface low and ahead of the cold front, a corridor of low relative humidity and increased winds will be possible. This area will be bounded by the dryline to the east and cold front to the north. Again, like Day 3/Tuesday, the area will need to be refined as confidence in the location and timing of these features comes into better focus. Elsewhere, the large-scale pattern will favor a period of northerly/offshore flow across southern California on Day 3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. However, potential preceding rains and onshore flow should prevent critical fire weather conditions from developing. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Only minor updates were made to the ongoing forecast. The ongoing elevated area was expanded northward slightly along the Arizona/New Mexico border were locally critical conditions may develop during the afternoon. Additionally, the elevated was expanded to the northwest across the southern Plains to include southeast Colorado and western Kansas. Here, winds and relative humidity may approach critical levels in the afternoon, however, extensive cloud cover should help mitigate the wind/rh combination. Across Oklahoma and Kansas, high-resolution guidance is coming into alignment that dense high-level cirrus clouds may develop within the southwest flow aloft. This may help to limit relative humidity from dropping as low as it otherwise could. That said, strong winds (gusting to around 30 mph), dry fuels, and relative humidity in the 20s and 30s will still support erratic fire behavior should fires start. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will deepen and shift eastward over the western US Monday as mid-level flow intensifies. Preceded by an amplified upper-level ridge, well above normal temperatures will continue as gusty wins increase over the Plains. Near record dryness, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will likely support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... As the upper-trough deepens over the western US, strong flow aloft will intensify ahead of it across the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will deepen to the east, bolstering southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. Dry downslope flow overlapping with RH of 15-20% will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely corridor for sustained near-critical conditions appears to be across parts of the central TX Panhandle. Here, winds may gust upwards of 30 mph with RH as low as 15%. However, model consensus on the duration/overlap of the stronger winds, lower RH and the driest fuels is low. Additionally, stronger surface winds are possible farther north and west, but less receptive fuels should limit concerns. Across parts of KS and OK, the eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains uncertain. Dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf given more southerly winds, RH will not be as low. However, strong wind gusts of 25-35 mph and RH near 30% may still support several hours of elevated fire danger given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Only minor updates were made to the ongoing forecast. The ongoing elevated area was expanded northward slightly along the Arizona/New Mexico border were locally critical conditions may develop during the afternoon. Additionally, the elevated was expanded to the northwest across the southern Plains to include southeast Colorado and western Kansas. Here, winds and relative humidity may approach critical levels in the afternoon, however, extensive cloud cover should help mitigate the wind/rh combination. Across Oklahoma and Kansas, high-resolution guidance is coming into alignment that dense high-level cirrus clouds may develop within the southwest flow aloft. This may help to limit relative humidity from dropping as low as it otherwise could. That said, strong winds (gusting to around 30 mph), dry fuels, and relative humidity in the 20s and 30s will still support erratic fire behavior should fires start. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will deepen and shift eastward over the western US Monday as mid-level flow intensifies. Preceded by an amplified upper-level ridge, well above normal temperatures will continue as gusty wins increase over the Plains. Near record dryness, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will likely support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... As the upper-trough deepens over the western US, strong flow aloft will intensify ahead of it across the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will deepen to the east, bolstering southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. Dry downslope flow overlapping with RH of 15-20% will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely corridor for sustained near-critical conditions appears to be across parts of the central TX Panhandle. Here, winds may gust upwards of 30 mph with RH as low as 15%. However, model consensus on the duration/overlap of the stronger winds, lower RH and the driest fuels is low. Additionally, stronger surface winds are possible farther north and west, but less receptive fuels should limit concerns. Across parts of KS and OK, the eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains uncertain. Dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf given more southerly winds, RH will not be as low. However, strong wind gusts of 25-35 mph and RH near 30% may still support several hours of elevated fire danger given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Only minor updates were made to the ongoing forecast. The ongoing elevated area was expanded northward slightly along the Arizona/New Mexico border were locally critical conditions may develop during the afternoon. Additionally, the elevated was expanded to the northwest across the southern Plains to include southeast Colorado and western Kansas. Here, winds and relative humidity may approach critical levels in the afternoon, however, extensive cloud cover should help mitigate the wind/rh combination. Across Oklahoma and Kansas, high-resolution guidance is coming into alignment that dense high-level cirrus clouds may develop within the southwest flow aloft. This may help to limit relative humidity from dropping as low as it otherwise could. That said, strong winds (gusting to around 30 mph), dry fuels, and relative humidity in the 20s and 30s will still support erratic fire behavior should fires start. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will deepen and shift eastward over the western US Monday as mid-level flow intensifies. Preceded by an amplified upper-level ridge, well above normal temperatures will continue as gusty wins increase over the Plains. Near record dryness, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will likely support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... As the upper-trough deepens over the western US, strong flow aloft will intensify ahead of it across the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will deepen to the east, bolstering southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. Dry downslope flow overlapping with RH of 15-20% will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely corridor for sustained near-critical conditions appears to be across parts of the central TX Panhandle. Here, winds may gust upwards of 30 mph with RH as low as 15%. However, model consensus on the duration/overlap of the stronger winds, lower RH and the driest fuels is low. Additionally, stronger surface winds are possible farther north and west, but less receptive fuels should limit concerns. Across parts of KS and OK, the eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains uncertain. Dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf given more southerly winds, RH will not be as low. However, strong wind gusts of 25-35 mph and RH near 30% may still support several hours of elevated fire danger given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Only minor updates were made to the ongoing forecast. The ongoing elevated area was expanded northward slightly along the Arizona/New Mexico border were locally critical conditions may develop during the afternoon. Additionally, the elevated was expanded to the northwest across the southern Plains to include southeast Colorado and western Kansas. Here, winds and relative humidity may approach critical levels in the afternoon, however, extensive cloud cover should help mitigate the wind/rh combination. Across Oklahoma and Kansas, high-resolution guidance is coming into alignment that dense high-level cirrus clouds may develop within the southwest flow aloft. This may help to limit relative humidity from dropping as low as it otherwise could. That said, strong winds (gusting to around 30 mph), dry fuels, and relative humidity in the 20s and 30s will still support erratic fire behavior should fires start. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will deepen and shift eastward over the western US Monday as mid-level flow intensifies. Preceded by an amplified upper-level ridge, well above normal temperatures will continue as gusty wins increase over the Plains. Near record dryness, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will likely support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... As the upper-trough deepens over the western US, strong flow aloft will intensify ahead of it across the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will deepen to the east, bolstering southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. Dry downslope flow overlapping with RH of 15-20% will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely corridor for sustained near-critical conditions appears to be across parts of the central TX Panhandle. Here, winds may gust upwards of 30 mph with RH as low as 15%. However, model consensus on the duration/overlap of the stronger winds, lower RH and the driest fuels is low. Additionally, stronger surface winds are possible farther north and west, but less receptive fuels should limit concerns. Across parts of KS and OK, the eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains uncertain. Dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf given more southerly winds, RH will not be as low. However, strong wind gusts of 25-35 mph and RH near 30% may still support several hours of elevated fire danger given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Only minor updates were made to the ongoing forecast. The ongoing elevated area was expanded northward slightly along the Arizona/New Mexico border were locally critical conditions may develop during the afternoon. Additionally, the elevated was expanded to the northwest across the southern Plains to include southeast Colorado and western Kansas. Here, winds and relative humidity may approach critical levels in the afternoon, however, extensive cloud cover should help mitigate the wind/rh combination. Across Oklahoma and Kansas, high-resolution guidance is coming into alignment that dense high-level cirrus clouds may develop within the southwest flow aloft. This may help to limit relative humidity from dropping as low as it otherwise could. That said, strong winds (gusting to around 30 mph), dry fuels, and relative humidity in the 20s and 30s will still support erratic fire behavior should fires start. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will deepen and shift eastward over the western US Monday as mid-level flow intensifies. Preceded by an amplified upper-level ridge, well above normal temperatures will continue as gusty wins increase over the Plains. Near record dryness, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will likely support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... As the upper-trough deepens over the western US, strong flow aloft will intensify ahead of it across the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will deepen to the east, bolstering southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. Dry downslope flow overlapping with RH of 15-20% will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely corridor for sustained near-critical conditions appears to be across parts of the central TX Panhandle. Here, winds may gust upwards of 30 mph with RH as low as 15%. However, model consensus on the duration/overlap of the stronger winds, lower RH and the driest fuels is low. Additionally, stronger surface winds are possible farther north and west, but less receptive fuels should limit concerns. Across parts of KS and OK, the eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains uncertain. Dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf given more southerly winds, RH will not be as low. However, strong wind gusts of 25-35 mph and RH near 30% may still support several hours of elevated fire danger given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes were needed with this update. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm potential this evening and overnight. Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where a surface front is currently located, this feature should support convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes were needed with this update. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm potential this evening and overnight. Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where a surface front is currently located, this feature should support convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes were needed with this update. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm potential this evening and overnight. Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where a surface front is currently located, this feature should support convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream. Read more