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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Only minor updates were made to the ongoing forecast. The ongoing elevated area was expanded northward slightly along the Arizona/New Mexico border were locally critical conditions may develop during the afternoon. Additionally, the elevated was expanded to the northwest across the southern Plains to include southeast Colorado and western Kansas. Here, winds and relative humidity may approach critical levels in the afternoon, however, extensive cloud cover should help mitigate the wind/rh combination. Across Oklahoma and Kansas, high-resolution guidance is coming into alignment that dense high-level cirrus clouds may develop within the southwest flow aloft. This may help to limit relative humidity from dropping as low as it otherwise could. That said, strong winds (gusting to around 30 mph), dry fuels, and relative humidity in the 20s and 30s will still support erratic fire behavior should fires start. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will deepen and shift eastward over the western US Monday as mid-level flow intensifies. Preceded by an amplified upper-level ridge, well above normal temperatures will continue as gusty wins increase over the Plains. Near record dryness, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will likely support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... As the upper-trough deepens over the western US, strong flow aloft will intensify ahead of it across the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will deepen to the east, bolstering southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. Dry downslope flow overlapping with RH of 15-20% will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely corridor for sustained near-critical conditions appears to be across parts of the central TX Panhandle. Here, winds may gust upwards of 30 mph with RH as low as 15%. However, model consensus on the duration/overlap of the stronger winds, lower RH and the driest fuels is low. Additionally, stronger surface winds are possible farther north and west, but less receptive fuels should limit concerns. Across parts of KS and OK, the eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains uncertain. Dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf given more southerly winds, RH will not be as low. However, strong wind gusts of 25-35 mph and RH near 30% may still support several hours of elevated fire danger given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Only minor updates were made to the ongoing forecast. The ongoing elevated area was expanded northward slightly along the Arizona/New Mexico border were locally critical conditions may develop during the afternoon. Additionally, the elevated was expanded to the northwest across the southern Plains to include southeast Colorado and western Kansas. Here, winds and relative humidity may approach critical levels in the afternoon, however, extensive cloud cover should help mitigate the wind/rh combination. Across Oklahoma and Kansas, high-resolution guidance is coming into alignment that dense high-level cirrus clouds may develop within the southwest flow aloft. This may help to limit relative humidity from dropping as low as it otherwise could. That said, strong winds (gusting to around 30 mph), dry fuels, and relative humidity in the 20s and 30s will still support erratic fire behavior should fires start. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will deepen and shift eastward over the western US Monday as mid-level flow intensifies. Preceded by an amplified upper-level ridge, well above normal temperatures will continue as gusty wins increase over the Plains. Near record dryness, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will likely support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... As the upper-trough deepens over the western US, strong flow aloft will intensify ahead of it across the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will deepen to the east, bolstering southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. Dry downslope flow overlapping with RH of 15-20% will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely corridor for sustained near-critical conditions appears to be across parts of the central TX Panhandle. Here, winds may gust upwards of 30 mph with RH as low as 15%. However, model consensus on the duration/overlap of the stronger winds, lower RH and the driest fuels is low. Additionally, stronger surface winds are possible farther north and west, but less receptive fuels should limit concerns. Across parts of KS and OK, the eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains uncertain. Dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf given more southerly winds, RH will not be as low. However, strong wind gusts of 25-35 mph and RH near 30% may still support several hours of elevated fire danger given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes were needed with this update. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm potential this evening and overnight. Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where a surface front is currently located, this feature should support convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes were needed with this update. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm potential this evening and overnight. Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where a surface front is currently located, this feature should support convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes were needed with this update. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm potential this evening and overnight. Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where a surface front is currently located, this feature should support convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes were needed with this update. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm potential this evening and overnight. Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where a surface front is currently located, this feature should support convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes were needed with this update. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm potential this evening and overnight. Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where a surface front is currently located, this feature should support convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong wind gusts, remain possible Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, from the central Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Four Corners region Tuesday and eject into the Plains states Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Through the day Tuesday, surface lee troughing will encourage appreciable low-level moisture return ahead of a surface front that is expected to be draped across the Plains states through the period. Substantial mid-level inhibition should limit robust thunderstorm development through much of Tuesday. However, mid-level cooling should gradually overspread the moist axis ahead of the surface cold front overnight, supporting at least scattered thunderstorm development across the Plains states into the Upper MS Valley into early Wednesday morning. Substantial low-level warm-air advection associated with a strong low-level jet, overspread by strong southwesterly 500 mb flow and accompanying cooler temperatures, will yield destabilization amid increasing vertical shear across the Plains states. Here, at least isolated severe storms will be possible, mainly within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning time frame. ...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Guidance consensus shows a 75+ kt southwesterly 500 mb speed max ejecting into the central Plains from the central/southern Rockies in the 06-12Z Wednesday time frame. At the same time, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to advect north-northwestward up to the cold front. Forecast soundings depict an erosion of the capping layer along the surface cold front, driven by 800-600 mb cooling, as the aforementioned mid-level speed max overspreads the central High Plains. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints may yield over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE along the cold front over the central Plains, with 500 J/kg MLCAPE over the Upper MS Valley. A 50-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet beneath the southwesterly 500 mb speed max will contribute to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, transient supercells and small bowing line segments capable of isolated severe hail/gusts could develop if adequate buoyancy can develop ahead of the cold front before sunrise. ..Squitieri.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong wind gusts, remain possible Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, from the central Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Four Corners region Tuesday and eject into the Plains states Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Through the day Tuesday, surface lee troughing will encourage appreciable low-level moisture return ahead of a surface front that is expected to be draped across the Plains states through the period. Substantial mid-level inhibition should limit robust thunderstorm development through much of Tuesday. However, mid-level cooling should gradually overspread the moist axis ahead of the surface cold front overnight, supporting at least scattered thunderstorm development across the Plains states into the Upper MS Valley into early Wednesday morning. Substantial low-level warm-air advection associated with a strong low-level jet, overspread by strong southwesterly 500 mb flow and accompanying cooler temperatures, will yield destabilization amid increasing vertical shear across the Plains states. Here, at least isolated severe storms will be possible, mainly within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning time frame. ...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Guidance consensus shows a 75+ kt southwesterly 500 mb speed max ejecting into the central Plains from the central/southern Rockies in the 06-12Z Wednesday time frame. At the same time, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to advect north-northwestward up to the cold front. Forecast soundings depict an erosion of the capping layer along the surface cold front, driven by 800-600 mb cooling, as the aforementioned mid-level speed max overspreads the central High Plains. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints may yield over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE along the cold front over the central Plains, with 500 J/kg MLCAPE over the Upper MS Valley. A 50-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet beneath the southwesterly 500 mb speed max will contribute to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, transient supercells and small bowing line segments capable of isolated severe hail/gusts could develop if adequate buoyancy can develop ahead of the cold front before sunrise. ..Squitieri.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong wind gusts, remain possible Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, from the central Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Four Corners region Tuesday and eject into the Plains states Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Through the day Tuesday, surface lee troughing will encourage appreciable low-level moisture return ahead of a surface front that is expected to be draped across the Plains states through the period. Substantial mid-level inhibition should limit robust thunderstorm development through much of Tuesday. However, mid-level cooling should gradually overspread the moist axis ahead of the surface cold front overnight, supporting at least scattered thunderstorm development across the Plains states into the Upper MS Valley into early Wednesday morning. Substantial low-level warm-air advection associated with a strong low-level jet, overspread by strong southwesterly 500 mb flow and accompanying cooler temperatures, will yield destabilization amid increasing vertical shear across the Plains states. Here, at least isolated severe storms will be possible, mainly within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning time frame. ...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Guidance consensus shows a 75+ kt southwesterly 500 mb speed max ejecting into the central Plains from the central/southern Rockies in the 06-12Z Wednesday time frame. At the same time, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to advect north-northwestward up to the cold front. Forecast soundings depict an erosion of the capping layer along the surface cold front, driven by 800-600 mb cooling, as the aforementioned mid-level speed max overspreads the central High Plains. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints may yield over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE along the cold front over the central Plains, with 500 J/kg MLCAPE over the Upper MS Valley. A 50-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet beneath the southwesterly 500 mb speed max will contribute to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, transient supercells and small bowing line segments capable of isolated severe hail/gusts could develop if adequate buoyancy can develop ahead of the cold front before sunrise. ..Squitieri.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong wind gusts, remain possible Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, from the central Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Four Corners region Tuesday and eject into the Plains states Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Through the day Tuesday, surface lee troughing will encourage appreciable low-level moisture return ahead of a surface front that is expected to be draped across the Plains states through the period. Substantial mid-level inhibition should limit robust thunderstorm development through much of Tuesday. However, mid-level cooling should gradually overspread the moist axis ahead of the surface cold front overnight, supporting at least scattered thunderstorm development across the Plains states into the Upper MS Valley into early Wednesday morning. Substantial low-level warm-air advection associated with a strong low-level jet, overspread by strong southwesterly 500 mb flow and accompanying cooler temperatures, will yield destabilization amid increasing vertical shear across the Plains states. Here, at least isolated severe storms will be possible, mainly within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning time frame. ...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Guidance consensus shows a 75+ kt southwesterly 500 mb speed max ejecting into the central Plains from the central/southern Rockies in the 06-12Z Wednesday time frame. At the same time, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to advect north-northwestward up to the cold front. Forecast soundings depict an erosion of the capping layer along the surface cold front, driven by 800-600 mb cooling, as the aforementioned mid-level speed max overspreads the central High Plains. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints may yield over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE along the cold front over the central Plains, with 500 J/kg MLCAPE over the Upper MS Valley. A 50-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet beneath the southwesterly 500 mb speed max will contribute to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, transient supercells and small bowing line segments capable of isolated severe hail/gusts could develop if adequate buoyancy can develop ahead of the cold front before sunrise. ..Squitieri.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong wind gusts, remain possible Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, from the central Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Four Corners region Tuesday and eject into the Plains states Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Through the day Tuesday, surface lee troughing will encourage appreciable low-level moisture return ahead of a surface front that is expected to be draped across the Plains states through the period. Substantial mid-level inhibition should limit robust thunderstorm development through much of Tuesday. However, mid-level cooling should gradually overspread the moist axis ahead of the surface cold front overnight, supporting at least scattered thunderstorm development across the Plains states into the Upper MS Valley into early Wednesday morning. Substantial low-level warm-air advection associated with a strong low-level jet, overspread by strong southwesterly 500 mb flow and accompanying cooler temperatures, will yield destabilization amid increasing vertical shear across the Plains states. Here, at least isolated severe storms will be possible, mainly within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning time frame. ...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Guidance consensus shows a 75+ kt southwesterly 500 mb speed max ejecting into the central Plains from the central/southern Rockies in the 06-12Z Wednesday time frame. At the same time, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to advect north-northwestward up to the cold front. Forecast soundings depict an erosion of the capping layer along the surface cold front, driven by 800-600 mb cooling, as the aforementioned mid-level speed max overspreads the central High Plains. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints may yield over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE along the cold front over the central Plains, with 500 J/kg MLCAPE over the Upper MS Valley. A 50-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet beneath the southwesterly 500 mb speed max will contribute to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, transient supercells and small bowing line segments capable of isolated severe hail/gusts could develop if adequate buoyancy can develop ahead of the cold front before sunrise. ..Squitieri.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, the Four Corners region, and across the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the western and central CONUS, supporting broad surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture return across the Plains and MS Valleys tomorrow (Monday). Cooler temperatures aloft, combined with strong synoptic forcing for ascent, will promote isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development near the shoreline of the Pacific Northwest, and across the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air advection will transpire across the Great Lakes Monday evening into the overnight as the terminus of a pronounced low-level jet overspreads the region. Here, low-level convergence will foster the potential for at least isolated thunderstorm development. Finally, isolated thunderstorms may develop just off the coast of the Carolinas as richer low-level moisture meanders along the Atlantic Coastline. However, thunderstorms should remain far enough offshore to preclude thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, the Four Corners region, and across the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the western and central CONUS, supporting broad surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture return across the Plains and MS Valleys tomorrow (Monday). Cooler temperatures aloft, combined with strong synoptic forcing for ascent, will promote isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development near the shoreline of the Pacific Northwest, and across the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air advection will transpire across the Great Lakes Monday evening into the overnight as the terminus of a pronounced low-level jet overspreads the region. Here, low-level convergence will foster the potential for at least isolated thunderstorm development. Finally, isolated thunderstorms may develop just off the coast of the Carolinas as richer low-level moisture meanders along the Atlantic Coastline. However, thunderstorms should remain far enough offshore to preclude thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, the Four Corners region, and across the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the western and central CONUS, supporting broad surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture return across the Plains and MS Valleys tomorrow (Monday). Cooler temperatures aloft, combined with strong synoptic forcing for ascent, will promote isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development near the shoreline of the Pacific Northwest, and across the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air advection will transpire across the Great Lakes Monday evening into the overnight as the terminus of a pronounced low-level jet overspreads the region. Here, low-level convergence will foster the potential for at least isolated thunderstorm development. Finally, isolated thunderstorms may develop just off the coast of the Carolinas as richer low-level moisture meanders along the Atlantic Coastline. However, thunderstorms should remain far enough offshore to preclude thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, the Four Corners region, and across the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the western and central CONUS, supporting broad surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture return across the Plains and MS Valleys tomorrow (Monday). Cooler temperatures aloft, combined with strong synoptic forcing for ascent, will promote isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development near the shoreline of the Pacific Northwest, and across the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air advection will transpire across the Great Lakes Monday evening into the overnight as the terminus of a pronounced low-level jet overspreads the region. Here, low-level convergence will foster the potential for at least isolated thunderstorm development. Finally, isolated thunderstorms may develop just off the coast of the Carolinas as richer low-level moisture meanders along the Atlantic Coastline. However, thunderstorms should remain far enough offshore to preclude thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, the Four Corners region, and across the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the western and central CONUS, supporting broad surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture return across the Plains and MS Valleys tomorrow (Monday). Cooler temperatures aloft, combined with strong synoptic forcing for ascent, will promote isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development near the shoreline of the Pacific Northwest, and across the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air advection will transpire across the Great Lakes Monday evening into the overnight as the terminus of a pronounced low-level jet overspreads the region. Here, low-level convergence will foster the potential for at least isolated thunderstorm development. Finally, isolated thunderstorms may develop just off the coast of the Carolinas as richer low-level moisture meanders along the Atlantic Coastline. However, thunderstorms should remain far enough offshore to preclude thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, the Four Corners region, and across the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the western and central CONUS, supporting broad surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture return across the Plains and MS Valleys tomorrow (Monday). Cooler temperatures aloft, combined with strong synoptic forcing for ascent, will promote isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development near the shoreline of the Pacific Northwest, and across the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air advection will transpire across the Great Lakes Monday evening into the overnight as the terminus of a pronounced low-level jet overspreads the region. Here, low-level convergence will foster the potential for at least isolated thunderstorm development. Finally, isolated thunderstorms may develop just off the coast of the Carolinas as richer low-level moisture meanders along the Atlantic Coastline. However, thunderstorms should remain far enough offshore to preclude thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ... Mid-Atlantic to southern New England ... South of the ongoing elevated fire weather highlights a very dry airmass will remain in place, with relative humidity falling into the low 20s to perhaps even the upper teens in localized areas. Current wind forecasts (less than 10 mph) should limit extreme fire behavior as compared to areas farther north, which is why the existing elevated area was not extended southward. That said, the dry airmass and record dry fuels in place will certainly support an increase in fire starts and initial attack. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough over the western US is forecast to amplify as southwesterly flow over much of the western US increases. A lee trough over the High Plains will bolster downslope surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England behind an offshore cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... Increasingly strong west/southwest flow ahead of the trough will support gusty winds across the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Near a lee trough, downslope winds of 15-20 mph are likely, coincident with a relatively dry air mass with RH values near 20%. Sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of central MT, eastern WY, and into western parts of the Dakotas and NE/CO. Here, fuels are the most receptive and the longest overlap of favorable meteorological conditions is expected. ...Southern New England... While slightly weaker than prior days, offshore flow should continue across parts of the East Coast and southern New England today. Gusty winds near 15 mph are possible, mainly closer to the coast, where RH values are still expected to be near 30-35%. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within record dry fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and cooler air mass will moderate RH values into Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ... Mid-Atlantic to southern New England ... South of the ongoing elevated fire weather highlights a very dry airmass will remain in place, with relative humidity falling into the low 20s to perhaps even the upper teens in localized areas. Current wind forecasts (less than 10 mph) should limit extreme fire behavior as compared to areas farther north, which is why the existing elevated area was not extended southward. That said, the dry airmass and record dry fuels in place will certainly support an increase in fire starts and initial attack. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough over the western US is forecast to amplify as southwesterly flow over much of the western US increases. A lee trough over the High Plains will bolster downslope surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England behind an offshore cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... Increasingly strong west/southwest flow ahead of the trough will support gusty winds across the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Near a lee trough, downslope winds of 15-20 mph are likely, coincident with a relatively dry air mass with RH values near 20%. Sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of central MT, eastern WY, and into western parts of the Dakotas and NE/CO. Here, fuels are the most receptive and the longest overlap of favorable meteorological conditions is expected. ...Southern New England... While slightly weaker than prior days, offshore flow should continue across parts of the East Coast and southern New England today. Gusty winds near 15 mph are possible, mainly closer to the coast, where RH values are still expected to be near 30-35%. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within record dry fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and cooler air mass will moderate RH values into Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more