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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts and large hail, are expected to develop on Wednesday from the southern Plains northward into eastern parts of the central Plains, and eastward into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the central Plains on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves into the lower Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward across the central and southern Plains, with a dryline situated from central Oklahoma south-southwestward into west Texas. As surface temperatures warm and as low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorm development is expected to take place during the afternoon from central Kansas southward into western Oklahoma. During the mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to move eastward across eastern Kansas and central to eastern Oklahoma. Some severe thunderstorms appear likely to develop. As convective coverage increases during the evening, an MCS may form across the region. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s F, with a narrow axis of moderate instability located in central and eastern Oklahoma. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon and early evening have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. This should be favorable for supercell development. However, a mixed mode could be prevalent, especially further north into the central Plains, where instability is forecast to be weaker. The stronger rotating storms could be associated with large hail and wind damage. Model consensus has the greatest severe threat developing during the late afternoon and early evening at the southern end of the low-level jet, from southern Oklahoma into north Texas. At this point, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be relatively poor, which should be a limiting factor. This could somewhat temper the magnitude of the severe threat. ..Broyles.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts and large hail, are expected to develop on Wednesday from the southern Plains northward into eastern parts of the central Plains, and eastward into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the central Plains on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves into the lower Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward across the central and southern Plains, with a dryline situated from central Oklahoma south-southwestward into west Texas. As surface temperatures warm and as low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorm development is expected to take place during the afternoon from central Kansas southward into western Oklahoma. During the mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to move eastward across eastern Kansas and central to eastern Oklahoma. Some severe thunderstorms appear likely to develop. As convective coverage increases during the evening, an MCS may form across the region. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s F, with a narrow axis of moderate instability located in central and eastern Oklahoma. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon and early evening have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. This should be favorable for supercell development. However, a mixed mode could be prevalent, especially further north into the central Plains, where instability is forecast to be weaker. The stronger rotating storms could be associated with large hail and wind damage. Model consensus has the greatest severe threat developing during the late afternoon and early evening at the southern end of the low-level jet, from southern Oklahoma into north Texas. At this point, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be relatively poor, which should be a limiting factor. This could somewhat temper the magnitude of the severe threat. ..Broyles.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper trough deepens over the west, strong southwesterly flow aloft will remain over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A sub 1000 mb lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage gusty downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains... Surface winds are expected to intensify early in the day south of the lee low across portions of the central High Plains. Heating and downslope warming beneath scattered high clouds will support RH minimums of 15-25%. The overlap of strong winds and low RH will support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions. There remains some uncertainty on the exact areal extent of the fire-weather risk given the narrow corridor of the strongest winds are excepted to align with more limited RH from cloud cover and returning moisture, as well as fuels that are not as dry as farther east. While near-critical conditions are possible, forecast confidence remains too low to include a critical area. The most probable location for sustained critical conditions may be across parts of northeastern and eastern CO, where stronger winds and downslope drying could overlap with more receptive fuels. Farther east, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of central KS and OK. RH values are not expected to be overly low as southerly return flow advects moisture northward. However, pockets of drier air and gusts to 30+ mph could support sporadic locally elevated fire-weather conditions Tuesday afternoon given the exceptionally dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper trough deepens over the west, strong southwesterly flow aloft will remain over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A sub 1000 mb lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage gusty downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains... Surface winds are expected to intensify early in the day south of the lee low across portions of the central High Plains. Heating and downslope warming beneath scattered high clouds will support RH minimums of 15-25%. The overlap of strong winds and low RH will support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions. There remains some uncertainty on the exact areal extent of the fire-weather risk given the narrow corridor of the strongest winds are excepted to align with more limited RH from cloud cover and returning moisture, as well as fuels that are not as dry as farther east. While near-critical conditions are possible, forecast confidence remains too low to include a critical area. The most probable location for sustained critical conditions may be across parts of northeastern and eastern CO, where stronger winds and downslope drying could overlap with more receptive fuels. Farther east, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of central KS and OK. RH values are not expected to be overly low as southerly return flow advects moisture northward. However, pockets of drier air and gusts to 30+ mph could support sporadic locally elevated fire-weather conditions Tuesday afternoon given the exceptionally dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper trough deepens over the west, strong southwesterly flow aloft will remain over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A sub 1000 mb lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage gusty downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains... Surface winds are expected to intensify early in the day south of the lee low across portions of the central High Plains. Heating and downslope warming beneath scattered high clouds will support RH minimums of 15-25%. The overlap of strong winds and low RH will support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions. There remains some uncertainty on the exact areal extent of the fire-weather risk given the narrow corridor of the strongest winds are excepted to align with more limited RH from cloud cover and returning moisture, as well as fuels that are not as dry as farther east. While near-critical conditions are possible, forecast confidence remains too low to include a critical area. The most probable location for sustained critical conditions may be across parts of northeastern and eastern CO, where stronger winds and downslope drying could overlap with more receptive fuels. Farther east, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of central KS and OK. RH values are not expected to be overly low as southerly return flow advects moisture northward. However, pockets of drier air and gusts to 30+ mph could support sporadic locally elevated fire-weather conditions Tuesday afternoon given the exceptionally dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper trough deepens over the west, strong southwesterly flow aloft will remain over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A sub 1000 mb lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage gusty downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains... Surface winds are expected to intensify early in the day south of the lee low across portions of the central High Plains. Heating and downslope warming beneath scattered high clouds will support RH minimums of 15-25%. The overlap of strong winds and low RH will support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions. There remains some uncertainty on the exact areal extent of the fire-weather risk given the narrow corridor of the strongest winds are excepted to align with more limited RH from cloud cover and returning moisture, as well as fuels that are not as dry as farther east. While near-critical conditions are possible, forecast confidence remains too low to include a critical area. The most probable location for sustained critical conditions may be across parts of northeastern and eastern CO, where stronger winds and downslope drying could overlap with more receptive fuels. Farther east, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of central KS and OK. RH values are not expected to be overly low as southerly return flow advects moisture northward. However, pockets of drier air and gusts to 30+ mph could support sporadic locally elevated fire-weather conditions Tuesday afternoon given the exceptionally dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to deepen and shift eastward over the western US today and tonight. A strong lee low will deepen over eastern CO increasing southerly flow over much of the Plains. Well above normal temperatures and strong winds will overlap with abundant and near record dry fuels. The combination of abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central Plains... Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the deepening trough beginning early today. Southeast of a deepening lee low over eastern CO, south/southwest winds will quickly strengthen over parts of TX, OK and KS. By midday, winds of 20-30 mph and gusts as high as 40 mph, are likely over much of the southern Plains. The strong winds are expected to overlap with areas of lower relative humidity. A corridor of 15-20% RH appears likely to overlap with the strongest winds across the eastern TX Panhandle, western OK and southern KS. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely given extremely dry fuels. Farther east into central/eastern OK and KS, high cirrus and returning surface moisture could limit RH minimums. However, wind gusts of 30+ mph and critically dry fuels still appear likely to support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions across the southern Plains. ...Southwest and Great Basin... Near the base of the upper trough, strong southwesterly flow is expected ahead of a cold front across the southern Great Basin and the Southwest. Downslope flow and warm temperatures will support RH values of 15-20% as surface winds increase to 15-20 mph. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely ahead of the front across the southern Great Basin and much of the Desert Southwest. ..Lyons.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to deepen and shift eastward over the western US today and tonight. A strong lee low will deepen over eastern CO increasing southerly flow over much of the Plains. Well above normal temperatures and strong winds will overlap with abundant and near record dry fuels. The combination of abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central Plains... Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the deepening trough beginning early today. Southeast of a deepening lee low over eastern CO, south/southwest winds will quickly strengthen over parts of TX, OK and KS. By midday, winds of 20-30 mph and gusts as high as 40 mph, are likely over much of the southern Plains. The strong winds are expected to overlap with areas of lower relative humidity. A corridor of 15-20% RH appears likely to overlap with the strongest winds across the eastern TX Panhandle, western OK and southern KS. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely given extremely dry fuels. Farther east into central/eastern OK and KS, high cirrus and returning surface moisture could limit RH minimums. However, wind gusts of 30+ mph and critically dry fuels still appear likely to support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions across the southern Plains. ...Southwest and Great Basin... Near the base of the upper trough, strong southwesterly flow is expected ahead of a cold front across the southern Great Basin and the Southwest. Downslope flow and warm temperatures will support RH values of 15-20% as surface winds increase to 15-20 mph. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely ahead of the front across the southern Great Basin and much of the Desert Southwest. ..Lyons.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to deepen and shift eastward over the western US today and tonight. A strong lee low will deepen over eastern CO increasing southerly flow over much of the Plains. Well above normal temperatures and strong winds will overlap with abundant and near record dry fuels. The combination of abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central Plains... Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the deepening trough beginning early today. Southeast of a deepening lee low over eastern CO, south/southwest winds will quickly strengthen over parts of TX, OK and KS. By midday, winds of 20-30 mph and gusts as high as 40 mph, are likely over much of the southern Plains. The strong winds are expected to overlap with areas of lower relative humidity. A corridor of 15-20% RH appears likely to overlap with the strongest winds across the eastern TX Panhandle, western OK and southern KS. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely given extremely dry fuels. Farther east into central/eastern OK and KS, high cirrus and returning surface moisture could limit RH minimums. However, wind gusts of 30+ mph and critically dry fuels still appear likely to support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions across the southern Plains. ...Southwest and Great Basin... Near the base of the upper trough, strong southwesterly flow is expected ahead of a cold front across the southern Great Basin and the Southwest. Downslope flow and warm temperatures will support RH values of 15-20% as surface winds increase to 15-20 mph. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely ahead of the front across the southern Great Basin and much of the Desert Southwest. ..Lyons.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to deepen and shift eastward over the western US today and tonight. A strong lee low will deepen over eastern CO increasing southerly flow over much of the Plains. Well above normal temperatures and strong winds will overlap with abundant and near record dry fuels. The combination of abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central Plains... Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the deepening trough beginning early today. Southeast of a deepening lee low over eastern CO, south/southwest winds will quickly strengthen over parts of TX, OK and KS. By midday, winds of 20-30 mph and gusts as high as 40 mph, are likely over much of the southern Plains. The strong winds are expected to overlap with areas of lower relative humidity. A corridor of 15-20% RH appears likely to overlap with the strongest winds across the eastern TX Panhandle, western OK and southern KS. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely given extremely dry fuels. Farther east into central/eastern OK and KS, high cirrus and returning surface moisture could limit RH minimums. However, wind gusts of 30+ mph and critically dry fuels still appear likely to support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions across the southern Plains. ...Southwest and Great Basin... Near the base of the upper trough, strong southwesterly flow is expected ahead of a cold front across the southern Great Basin and the Southwest. Downslope flow and warm temperatures will support RH values of 15-20% as surface winds increase to 15-20 mph. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely ahead of the front across the southern Great Basin and much of the Desert Southwest. ..Lyons.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong wind gusts, are expected Tuesday night from the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestern into northern sections of the southern Plains. ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates through the eastern part of the system into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Plains as a low deepens in southwestern Nebraska. As low-level flow and convergence increase along the front during the evening, convective initiation appears likely. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley within the mid to late evening, where instability should be sufficient for isolated severe storms. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase in the overnight period, with additional storms developing over northern parts of the southern Plains. The latest ECMWF model forecast suggests that the most favorable area for severe thunderstorm development will be in the mid Missouri Valley during the late evening on Tuesday. NAM forecast soundings near and to the north of Omaha at 06Z/Wednesday show a capping inversion above 850 mb, with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, effective shear of 45 to 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment would support supercells with isolated large hail. Storms that develop to the east of the boundary will likely be elevated with hail as the primary threat. Storms that form near the front will have more of chance to be surface-based. Any intense cell that can become surface or nearly surface-based could produce isolated severe wind gusts. As storm coverage increases overnight, a marginal severe threat should be maintained due to the strengthening low-level flow, with the severe threat areal coverage expanding south-southwestward with time. The late convective initiation and lack of instability are the main limiting factors preventing an outlook upgrade at this time. ..Broyles.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong wind gusts, are expected Tuesday night from the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestern into northern sections of the southern Plains. ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates through the eastern part of the system into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Plains as a low deepens in southwestern Nebraska. As low-level flow and convergence increase along the front during the evening, convective initiation appears likely. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley within the mid to late evening, where instability should be sufficient for isolated severe storms. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase in the overnight period, with additional storms developing over northern parts of the southern Plains. The latest ECMWF model forecast suggests that the most favorable area for severe thunderstorm development will be in the mid Missouri Valley during the late evening on Tuesday. NAM forecast soundings near and to the north of Omaha at 06Z/Wednesday show a capping inversion above 850 mb, with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, effective shear of 45 to 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment would support supercells with isolated large hail. Storms that develop to the east of the boundary will likely be elevated with hail as the primary threat. Storms that form near the front will have more of chance to be surface-based. Any intense cell that can become surface or nearly surface-based could produce isolated severe wind gusts. As storm coverage increases overnight, a marginal severe threat should be maintained due to the strengthening low-level flow, with the severe threat areal coverage expanding south-southwestward with time. The late convective initiation and lack of instability are the main limiting factors preventing an outlook upgrade at this time. ..Broyles.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong wind gusts, are expected Tuesday night from the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestern into northern sections of the southern Plains. ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates through the eastern part of the system into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Plains as a low deepens in southwestern Nebraska. As low-level flow and convergence increase along the front during the evening, convective initiation appears likely. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley within the mid to late evening, where instability should be sufficient for isolated severe storms. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase in the overnight period, with additional storms developing over northern parts of the southern Plains. The latest ECMWF model forecast suggests that the most favorable area for severe thunderstorm development will be in the mid Missouri Valley during the late evening on Tuesday. NAM forecast soundings near and to the north of Omaha at 06Z/Wednesday show a capping inversion above 850 mb, with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, effective shear of 45 to 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment would support supercells with isolated large hail. Storms that develop to the east of the boundary will likely be elevated with hail as the primary threat. Storms that form near the front will have more of chance to be surface-based. Any intense cell that can become surface or nearly surface-based could produce isolated severe wind gusts. As storm coverage increases overnight, a marginal severe threat should be maintained due to the strengthening low-level flow, with the severe threat areal coverage expanding south-southwestward with time. The late convective initiation and lack of instability are the main limiting factors preventing an outlook upgrade at this time. ..Broyles.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong wind gusts, are expected Tuesday night from the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestern into northern sections of the southern Plains. ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates through the eastern part of the system into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Plains as a low deepens in southwestern Nebraska. As low-level flow and convergence increase along the front during the evening, convective initiation appears likely. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley within the mid to late evening, where instability should be sufficient for isolated severe storms. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase in the overnight period, with additional storms developing over northern parts of the southern Plains. The latest ECMWF model forecast suggests that the most favorable area for severe thunderstorm development will be in the mid Missouri Valley during the late evening on Tuesday. NAM forecast soundings near and to the north of Omaha at 06Z/Wednesday show a capping inversion above 850 mb, with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, effective shear of 45 to 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment would support supercells with isolated large hail. Storms that develop to the east of the boundary will likely be elevated with hail as the primary threat. Storms that form near the front will have more of chance to be surface-based. Any intense cell that can become surface or nearly surface-based could produce isolated severe wind gusts. As storm coverage increases overnight, a marginal severe threat should be maintained due to the strengthening low-level flow, with the severe threat areal coverage expanding south-southwestward with time. The late convective initiation and lack of instability are the main limiting factors preventing an outlook upgrade at this time. ..Broyles.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few flashes of lightning may be noted across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest early in the period. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop later in the day across the Four Corners region. Scattered convection is expected across the Great Lakes during the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern favors very few regions of deep convection, and in those areas any storms that form will remain weak and mostly isolated, especially in the west. Latest model guidance continues to suggest strong height falls across much of the western US as upper troughing advances inland. Cool, steep profiles may support a few flashes of lightning with shallow convection near the Pacific Coast early in the period. Otherwise, steepening lapse rates across the interior Great Basin/Four Corners should contribute to isolated convection, some of which may generate lightning later in the day. During the latter half of the period, strong LLJ will develop across the Plains, and low-level warm advection will increase over the upper Great Lakes. Elevated convection appears possible during the overnight hours as modestly steep mid-level lapse rates allow weak buoyancy to develop across this region. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few flashes of lightning may be noted across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest early in the period. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop later in the day across the Four Corners region. Scattered convection is expected across the Great Lakes during the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern favors very few regions of deep convection, and in those areas any storms that form will remain weak and mostly isolated, especially in the west. Latest model guidance continues to suggest strong height falls across much of the western US as upper troughing advances inland. Cool, steep profiles may support a few flashes of lightning with shallow convection near the Pacific Coast early in the period. Otherwise, steepening lapse rates across the interior Great Basin/Four Corners should contribute to isolated convection, some of which may generate lightning later in the day. During the latter half of the period, strong LLJ will develop across the Plains, and low-level warm advection will increase over the upper Great Lakes. Elevated convection appears possible during the overnight hours as modestly steep mid-level lapse rates allow weak buoyancy to develop across this region. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few flashes of lightning may be noted across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest early in the period. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop later in the day across the Four Corners region. Scattered convection is expected across the Great Lakes during the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern favors very few regions of deep convection, and in those areas any storms that form will remain weak and mostly isolated, especially in the west. Latest model guidance continues to suggest strong height falls across much of the western US as upper troughing advances inland. Cool, steep profiles may support a few flashes of lightning with shallow convection near the Pacific Coast early in the period. Otherwise, steepening lapse rates across the interior Great Basin/Four Corners should contribute to isolated convection, some of which may generate lightning later in the day. During the latter half of the period, strong LLJ will develop across the Plains, and low-level warm advection will increase over the upper Great Lakes. Elevated convection appears possible during the overnight hours as modestly steep mid-level lapse rates allow weak buoyancy to develop across this region. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few flashes of lightning may be noted across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest early in the period. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop later in the day across the Four Corners region. Scattered convection is expected across the Great Lakes during the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern favors very few regions of deep convection, and in those areas any storms that form will remain weak and mostly isolated, especially in the west. Latest model guidance continues to suggest strong height falls across much of the western US as upper troughing advances inland. Cool, steep profiles may support a few flashes of lightning with shallow convection near the Pacific Coast early in the period. Otherwise, steepening lapse rates across the interior Great Basin/Four Corners should contribute to isolated convection, some of which may generate lightning later in the day. During the latter half of the period, strong LLJ will develop across the Plains, and low-level warm advection will increase over the upper Great Lakes. Elevated convection appears possible during the overnight hours as modestly steep mid-level lapse rates allow weak buoyancy to develop across this region. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few flashes of lightning may be noted across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest early in the period. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop later in the day across the Four Corners region. Scattered convection is expected across the Great Lakes during the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern favors very few regions of deep convection, and in those areas any storms that form will remain weak and mostly isolated, especially in the west. Latest model guidance continues to suggest strong height falls across much of the western US as upper troughing advances inland. Cool, steep profiles may support a few flashes of lightning with shallow convection near the Pacific Coast early in the period. Otherwise, steepening lapse rates across the interior Great Basin/Four Corners should contribute to isolated convection, some of which may generate lightning later in the day. During the latter half of the period, strong LLJ will develop across the Plains, and low-level warm advection will increase over the upper Great Lakes. Elevated convection appears possible during the overnight hours as modestly steep mid-level lapse rates allow weak buoyancy to develop across this region. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/28/2024 Read more

More than 900 wildfires have been reported in New Jersey from the start of the year through Oct. 21. Four of the blazes have been “major” in severity, burning more than 100 acres each. Rainfall in the Garden State has been below-average for the past five months, allowing the fire season, which typically begins mid-October, to begin early. NJ.com (Newark, N.J.), Oct 28, 2024