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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Wednesday across the southern and central Plains extending eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Ozarks... An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, as a fetch of southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The trough is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by late Wednesday afternoon as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F, with weak instability developing by afternoon over much of the pre-frontal airmass. Convective initiation is expected to occur early in the period across the central Plains extending northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will be likely as cells increase in coverage during the late morning and early afternoon. MCS development is expected to take place by afternoon, with a relatively large convective cluster or line gradually moving eastward across eastern and southern Kansas extending southward into Oklahoma. Strong low-level flow, large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough, rich low-level moisture and moderate deep-layer shear will be favorable for a severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening. The strongest instability is forecast to develop across southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon. In this area, NAM forecast soundings increase MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg by 21Z, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 50 and 60 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity peaking in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This environment appears likely to support supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible with rotating storms that remain discrete. As the MCS increases in size during the afternoon, a mixed mode is expected with supercells and organized multicells. Some models, like the ECMWF, suggest the convection will line out in the central Plains. This would favor a wind-damage threat along the leading edge of the line. The most favorable threat for severe storms would be with rotating storms embedded in the line, and with discrete cells ahead of the line. Further south into Oklahoma, cells are forecast to be primarily discrete suggesting that a severe threat with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely. A tornado threat could also develop southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should eventually impact parts of north Texas. A severe threat is expected to persist into the late evening, and perhaps into the early overnight period, as the MCS moves through the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may begin late tonight from the Upper Mississippi Valley area south-southwestward across the Plains. Local/limited risk for hail/wind warrants continuation of Level 1/MRGL risk for the very end of the period. ...Plains... Seasonally strong upper trough, currently located just inland of the Pacific Coast, is forecast to shift across the Great Basin/lower CO River Valley this morning as strongest 500mb flow rotates across AZ into southern CO. This feature should advance into the Four Corners region by 30/12z with a corridor of strong high-level southwesterly winds expected to extend across NM into the upper Great Lakes. This flow regime warrants a strengthening lee trough, along with a plains-focused LLJ, through the end of the period. In response to the approaching upper system, lee trough should sharpen and get dislodged into southeastern NE-central KS-southern High Plains by sunrise Tuesday. Prior to large-scale forcing/approaching cold front, forecast soundings appear too capped/stable to warrant any appreciable risk for robust convection. However, sustained southerly low-level flow should result in a gradual increase in boundary-layer moisture during the latter half of the period, as 60F dew points could approach the KS border by 30/12z. If dew points are able to rise to near 60F then surface parcels will be negligibly inhibited, and SBCAPE would likely be adequate for robust updrafts, especially as dynamic support is spreading across this boundary by sunrise. Will maintain severe probabilities for very late in the period to account for some risk of robust convection developing along the cold front/dry line, primarily after 09z. Given the strength of the wind field, organized thunderstorms are possible, and this activity could generate wind/hail. Even so, greater risk appears to be later in the day2 period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may begin late tonight from the Upper Mississippi Valley area south-southwestward across the Plains. Local/limited risk for hail/wind warrants continuation of Level 1/MRGL risk for the very end of the period. ...Plains... Seasonally strong upper trough, currently located just inland of the Pacific Coast, is forecast to shift across the Great Basin/lower CO River Valley this morning as strongest 500mb flow rotates across AZ into southern CO. This feature should advance into the Four Corners region by 30/12z with a corridor of strong high-level southwesterly winds expected to extend across NM into the upper Great Lakes. This flow regime warrants a strengthening lee trough, along with a plains-focused LLJ, through the end of the period. In response to the approaching upper system, lee trough should sharpen and get dislodged into southeastern NE-central KS-southern High Plains by sunrise Tuesday. Prior to large-scale forcing/approaching cold front, forecast soundings appear too capped/stable to warrant any appreciable risk for robust convection. However, sustained southerly low-level flow should result in a gradual increase in boundary-layer moisture during the latter half of the period, as 60F dew points could approach the KS border by 30/12z. If dew points are able to rise to near 60F then surface parcels will be negligibly inhibited, and SBCAPE would likely be adequate for robust updrafts, especially as dynamic support is spreading across this boundary by sunrise. Will maintain severe probabilities for very late in the period to account for some risk of robust convection developing along the cold front/dry line, primarily after 09z. Given the strength of the wind field, organized thunderstorms are possible, and this activity could generate wind/hail. Even so, greater risk appears to be later in the day2 period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may begin late tonight from the Upper Mississippi Valley area south-southwestward across the Plains. Local/limited risk for hail/wind warrants continuation of Level 1/MRGL risk for the very end of the period. ...Plains... Seasonally strong upper trough, currently located just inland of the Pacific Coast, is forecast to shift across the Great Basin/lower CO River Valley this morning as strongest 500mb flow rotates across AZ into southern CO. This feature should advance into the Four Corners region by 30/12z with a corridor of strong high-level southwesterly winds expected to extend across NM into the upper Great Lakes. This flow regime warrants a strengthening lee trough, along with a plains-focused LLJ, through the end of the period. In response to the approaching upper system, lee trough should sharpen and get dislodged into southeastern NE-central KS-southern High Plains by sunrise Tuesday. Prior to large-scale forcing/approaching cold front, forecast soundings appear too capped/stable to warrant any appreciable risk for robust convection. However, sustained southerly low-level flow should result in a gradual increase in boundary-layer moisture during the latter half of the period, as 60F dew points could approach the KS border by 30/12z. If dew points are able to rise to near 60F then surface parcels will be negligibly inhibited, and SBCAPE would likely be adequate for robust updrafts, especially as dynamic support is spreading across this boundary by sunrise. Will maintain severe probabilities for very late in the period to account for some risk of robust convection developing along the cold front/dry line, primarily after 09z. Given the strength of the wind field, organized thunderstorms are possible, and this activity could generate wind/hail. Even so, greater risk appears to be later in the day2 period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may begin late tonight from the Upper Mississippi Valley area south-southwestward across the Plains. Local/limited risk for hail/wind warrants continuation of Level 1/MRGL risk for the very end of the period. ...Plains... Seasonally strong upper trough, currently located just inland of the Pacific Coast, is forecast to shift across the Great Basin/lower CO River Valley this morning as strongest 500mb flow rotates across AZ into southern CO. This feature should advance into the Four Corners region by 30/12z with a corridor of strong high-level southwesterly winds expected to extend across NM into the upper Great Lakes. This flow regime warrants a strengthening lee trough, along with a plains-focused LLJ, through the end of the period. In response to the approaching upper system, lee trough should sharpen and get dislodged into southeastern NE-central KS-southern High Plains by sunrise Tuesday. Prior to large-scale forcing/approaching cold front, forecast soundings appear too capped/stable to warrant any appreciable risk for robust convection. However, sustained southerly low-level flow should result in a gradual increase in boundary-layer moisture during the latter half of the period, as 60F dew points could approach the KS border by 30/12z. If dew points are able to rise to near 60F then surface parcels will be negligibly inhibited, and SBCAPE would likely be adequate for robust updrafts, especially as dynamic support is spreading across this boundary by sunrise. Will maintain severe probabilities for very late in the period to account for some risk of robust convection developing along the cold front/dry line, primarily after 09z. Given the strength of the wind field, organized thunderstorms are possible, and this activity could generate wind/hail. Even so, greater risk appears to be later in the day2 period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/29/2024 Read more

Gov. Mike Parson signed an executive order on Oct. 29 declaring a drought alert in the state. The alert will remain in effect through March 31, 2025. The Missouri Department of Natural Resources will activate the Drought Assessment Committee. KFVS12 (Cape Girardeau, Mo.), Oct 29, 2024

The chief of Choctaw Nation issued an executive order for a burn ban in nine southeastern Oklahoma counties and a State of Emergency. The counties affected by the executive order included Atoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Haskell, Hughes, Latimer, McCurtain and Pushmataha. County commissioners in all nine counties have issued their own burn bans. Only Pittsburg County in the Choctaw Reservation does not have a burn ban. McAlester News-Capital (0kla.), Oct 28, 2024

October is usually a wet month for Central Texas, but this year it has been very dry. Hay will be needed months earlier than usual for livestock as pastures go dry. KCEN TV (Temple, Texas), Oct 28, 2024

A sheep and lamb producer near Bentonville has drying ponds, drying trees that frequently offer shade for the livestock, and dry pastures earlier than anticipated. The farmer had to begin feeding hay in August rather than November like last year. It costs roughly $50 daily to feed the sheep hay. The early expense led to livestock sales to lower his inventory. Raising the price of the lamb meat is another option if drought persists. Cattle farmers were also opting to sell livestock early rather than feed them hay longer than normal. KFSM-TV CBS 5 Fort Smith (Ark.), Oct 28, 2024

A countywide burn ban was in effect for Chester County for the next month due to historic drought and the rising fire danger. Precipitation has been less than half of normal and parts of the area were enduring what may be their driest October on record, according to the National Weather Service. The burn ban will remain in effect through Monday, Nov. 25. Delaware County has a similar burn ban. West Chester, PA Patch, Oct 28, 2024

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Western CONUS upper trough is shifting east early this evening, and significant mid-level height falls are now spreading across the lower CO River Valley into the Great Basin. Leading edge of large-scale forcing appears to be partly responsible for weak frontal convection that currently extends across eastern NV-northern UT-central WY. Occasional flashes of lightning may persist with this frontal activity as the main wind shift sags southeast. Downstream, low-level warm advection is expected to increase and focus across the upper Great Lakes later this evening. Both GRB and MPX soundings exhibited modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, but profiles have yet to moisten sufficiently and buoyancy remains negligible. With time, elevated profiles should become more unstable, and lightning is expected with deeper convection. ..Darrow.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Western CONUS upper trough is shifting east early this evening, and significant mid-level height falls are now spreading across the lower CO River Valley into the Great Basin. Leading edge of large-scale forcing appears to be partly responsible for weak frontal convection that currently extends across eastern NV-northern UT-central WY. Occasional flashes of lightning may persist with this frontal activity as the main wind shift sags southeast. Downstream, low-level warm advection is expected to increase and focus across the upper Great Lakes later this evening. Both GRB and MPX soundings exhibited modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, but profiles have yet to moisten sufficiently and buoyancy remains negligible. With time, elevated profiles should become more unstable, and lightning is expected with deeper convection. ..Darrow.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Western CONUS upper trough is shifting east early this evening, and significant mid-level height falls are now spreading across the lower CO River Valley into the Great Basin. Leading edge of large-scale forcing appears to be partly responsible for weak frontal convection that currently extends across eastern NV-northern UT-central WY. Occasional flashes of lightning may persist with this frontal activity as the main wind shift sags southeast. Downstream, low-level warm advection is expected to increase and focus across the upper Great Lakes later this evening. Both GRB and MPX soundings exhibited modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, but profiles have yet to moisten sufficiently and buoyancy remains negligible. With time, elevated profiles should become more unstable, and lightning is expected with deeper convection. ..Darrow.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Western CONUS upper trough is shifting east early this evening, and significant mid-level height falls are now spreading across the lower CO River Valley into the Great Basin. Leading edge of large-scale forcing appears to be partly responsible for weak frontal convection that currently extends across eastern NV-northern UT-central WY. Occasional flashes of lightning may persist with this frontal activity as the main wind shift sags southeast. Downstream, low-level warm advection is expected to increase and focus across the upper Great Lakes later this evening. Both GRB and MPX soundings exhibited modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, but profiles have yet to moisten sufficiently and buoyancy remains negligible. With time, elevated profiles should become more unstable, and lightning is expected with deeper convection. ..Darrow.. 10/29/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282320
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Although the chances of development
appear to be decreasing, a tropical depression could still form in a
few days while the system moves westward at about 15 mph. This
system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Basin by the
end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central East Pacific:
A weak area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is
possible during the next few days while the low moves slowly to
the west-northwest. By the end of the week, however, upper-level
winds should become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 28 21:55:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 28 21:55:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected through the remainder of the week. An upper-level trough will eject into the Plains late this week and continue on into the Northeast. Farther west, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and gradually shift eastward this weekend into next week. Fire weather concerns will be focused on Wednesday. Thereafter, cool/wet conditions across much of the CONUS are expected to mitigate larger-scale fire weather concerns. Coincidentally, ensemble forecasts show low probability of critical fire weather through early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected as westerly downslope winds increase behind a Pacific front on Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds and a surface low in the southern Plains will drive around 20 mph winds with near 15% RH. The duration of these conditions is the main uncertainty that precludes an increase in critical probabilities. Depending on the evolution of the upper-level pattern over the weekend into early next week, some increase in dry/windy conditions is possible. However, given expected precipitation in the region as well as uncertainty in the overall pattern, confidence in critical fire weather is low. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are possible from late Tuesday into Wednesday. While some locally elevated conditions could develop, potential for critical fire weather appears low given the precipitation that may accompany the upper-level trough. Models suggest another period of offshore winds may develop early next week. However, the degree of upper-level support differs quite markedly. Furthermore, additional precipitation is possible as the large-scale trough moves over the region during the weekend. Trends will be monitored, but critical fire weather potential also appears low early next week as well. ..Wendt.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected through the remainder of the week. An upper-level trough will eject into the Plains late this week and continue on into the Northeast. Farther west, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and gradually shift eastward this weekend into next week. Fire weather concerns will be focused on Wednesday. Thereafter, cool/wet conditions across much of the CONUS are expected to mitigate larger-scale fire weather concerns. Coincidentally, ensemble forecasts show low probability of critical fire weather through early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected as westerly downslope winds increase behind a Pacific front on Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds and a surface low in the southern Plains will drive around 20 mph winds with near 15% RH. The duration of these conditions is the main uncertainty that precludes an increase in critical probabilities. Depending on the evolution of the upper-level pattern over the weekend into early next week, some increase in dry/windy conditions is possible. However, given expected precipitation in the region as well as uncertainty in the overall pattern, confidence in critical fire weather is low. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are possible from late Tuesday into Wednesday. While some locally elevated conditions could develop, potential for critical fire weather appears low given the precipitation that may accompany the upper-level trough. Models suggest another period of offshore winds may develop early next week. However, the degree of upper-level support differs quite markedly. Furthermore, additional precipitation is possible as the large-scale trough moves over the region during the weekend. Trends will be monitored, but critical fire weather potential also appears low early next week as well. ..Wendt.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected through the remainder of the week. An upper-level trough will eject into the Plains late this week and continue on into the Northeast. Farther west, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and gradually shift eastward this weekend into next week. Fire weather concerns will be focused on Wednesday. Thereafter, cool/wet conditions across much of the CONUS are expected to mitigate larger-scale fire weather concerns. Coincidentally, ensemble forecasts show low probability of critical fire weather through early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected as westerly downslope winds increase behind a Pacific front on Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds and a surface low in the southern Plains will drive around 20 mph winds with near 15% RH. The duration of these conditions is the main uncertainty that precludes an increase in critical probabilities. Depending on the evolution of the upper-level pattern over the weekend into early next week, some increase in dry/windy conditions is possible. However, given expected precipitation in the region as well as uncertainty in the overall pattern, confidence in critical fire weather is low. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are possible from late Tuesday into Wednesday. While some locally elevated conditions could develop, potential for critical fire weather appears low given the precipitation that may accompany the upper-level trough. Models suggest another period of offshore winds may develop early next week. However, the degree of upper-level support differs quite markedly. Furthermore, additional precipitation is possible as the large-scale trough moves over the region during the weekend. Trends will be monitored, but critical fire weather potential also appears low early next week as well. ..Wendt.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more