Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to dig south-southeastward into California on Friday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains. On Saturday, an upper-level low is forecast to close off over southern California. The southwesterly flow pattern will be favorable for moisture advection in the southern Plains over the weekend. Surface dewpoints are forecast to return into the 60s F across much of the southern Plains, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop both Friday and Saturday. The latest model forecasts for this period suggest that MLCAPE will peak each afternoon in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear remaining around 30 knots. This, combined with a lack of large-scale ascent, is expected to keep any severe threat marginal across the region. Strong wind gusts and hail should be the primary threats. The upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward towards southwestern Arizona on Sunday, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. Weak destabilization and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the jet should support an isolated severe threat across parts of west Texas Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level jet is forecast to move across the southern and central Plains over a weakly unstable airmass. Thunderstorm development is expected each day from parts of central and north Texas northward into Kansas. Although a severe threat will be possible each afternoon, weak instability is expected to keep any severe potential relatively isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to dig south-southeastward into California on Friday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains. On Saturday, an upper-level low is forecast to close off over southern California. The southwesterly flow pattern will be favorable for moisture advection in the southern Plains over the weekend. Surface dewpoints are forecast to return into the 60s F across much of the southern Plains, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop both Friday and Saturday. The latest model forecasts for this period suggest that MLCAPE will peak each afternoon in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear remaining around 30 knots. This, combined with a lack of large-scale ascent, is expected to keep any severe threat marginal across the region. Strong wind gusts and hail should be the primary threats. The upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward towards southwestern Arizona on Sunday, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. Weak destabilization and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the jet should support an isolated severe threat across parts of west Texas Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level jet is forecast to move across the southern and central Plains over a weakly unstable airmass. Thunderstorm development is expected each day from parts of central and north Texas northward into Kansas. Although a severe threat will be possible each afternoon, weak instability is expected to keep any severe potential relatively isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to dig south-southeastward into California on Friday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains. On Saturday, an upper-level low is forecast to close off over southern California. The southwesterly flow pattern will be favorable for moisture advection in the southern Plains over the weekend. Surface dewpoints are forecast to return into the 60s F across much of the southern Plains, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop both Friday and Saturday. The latest model forecasts for this period suggest that MLCAPE will peak each afternoon in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear remaining around 30 knots. This, combined with a lack of large-scale ascent, is expected to keep any severe threat marginal across the region. Strong wind gusts and hail should be the primary threats. The upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward towards southwestern Arizona on Sunday, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. Weak destabilization and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the jet should support an isolated severe threat across parts of west Texas Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level jet is forecast to move across the southern and central Plains over a weakly unstable airmass. Thunderstorm development is expected each day from parts of central and north Texas northward into Kansas. Although a severe threat will be possible each afternoon, weak instability is expected to keep any severe potential relatively isolated. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Thursday across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest and Ozarks on Thursday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F, enabling the development of weak instability as surface temperatures warm up during the day. Increasing instability and low-level convergence along the front will result in scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level flow will weaken across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as the upper-level trough moves further away. This, combined with weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates will minimize any severe threat that develops. In areas that heat up the most, a marginal severe threat will be possible. The stronger cells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Thursday across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest and Ozarks on Thursday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F, enabling the development of weak instability as surface temperatures warm up during the day. Increasing instability and low-level convergence along the front will result in scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level flow will weaken across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as the upper-level trough moves further away. This, combined with weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates will minimize any severe threat that develops. In areas that heat up the most, a marginal severe threat will be possible. The stronger cells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Thursday across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest and Ozarks on Thursday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F, enabling the development of weak instability as surface temperatures warm up during the day. Increasing instability and low-level convergence along the front will result in scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level flow will weaken across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as the upper-level trough moves further away. This, combined with weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates will minimize any severe threat that develops. In areas that heat up the most, a marginal severe threat will be possible. The stronger cells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Thursday across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest and Ozarks on Thursday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F, enabling the development of weak instability as surface temperatures warm up during the day. Increasing instability and low-level convergence along the front will result in scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level flow will weaken across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as the upper-level trough moves further away. This, combined with weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates will minimize any severe threat that develops. In areas that heat up the most, a marginal severe threat will be possible. The stronger cells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to eject over the central Plains Wednesday as strong flow aloft linger over the southern Rockies. A lee low over southeastern CO will deepen slightly before moving northeast along a cold front across KS and OK. Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... Downslope winds are again expected to be strong across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible behind a lee trough/dryline across western OK and the TX Panhandle. With RH values of 15-20% widespread elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of the southern High Plains. Sustained critical conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern TX Panhandle, but current model guidance suggests these may be brief. Thus, critical highlights could be needed in future updates if model consensus shows longer duration surface winds greater than 25 mph. ...Midwest and Great Lakes... A second day of dry and breezy conditions could support locally elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. Southerly winds of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the surface low and cold front. East and north of the deeper surface moisture, RH values should be below 35%. While not overly dry, and likely modulated by mid and high-level clouds, RH values should be dry enough to support some threat for fire danger given the gusty winds and extremely dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to eject over the central Plains Wednesday as strong flow aloft linger over the southern Rockies. A lee low over southeastern CO will deepen slightly before moving northeast along a cold front across KS and OK. Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... Downslope winds are again expected to be strong across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible behind a lee trough/dryline across western OK and the TX Panhandle. With RH values of 15-20% widespread elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of the southern High Plains. Sustained critical conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern TX Panhandle, but current model guidance suggests these may be brief. Thus, critical highlights could be needed in future updates if model consensus shows longer duration surface winds greater than 25 mph. ...Midwest and Great Lakes... A second day of dry and breezy conditions could support locally elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. Southerly winds of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the surface low and cold front. East and north of the deeper surface moisture, RH values should be below 35%. While not overly dry, and likely modulated by mid and high-level clouds, RH values should be dry enough to support some threat for fire danger given the gusty winds and extremely dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to eject over the central Plains Wednesday as strong flow aloft linger over the southern Rockies. A lee low over southeastern CO will deepen slightly before moving northeast along a cold front across KS and OK. Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... Downslope winds are again expected to be strong across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible behind a lee trough/dryline across western OK and the TX Panhandle. With RH values of 15-20% widespread elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of the southern High Plains. Sustained critical conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern TX Panhandle, but current model guidance suggests these may be brief. Thus, critical highlights could be needed in future updates if model consensus shows longer duration surface winds greater than 25 mph. ...Midwest and Great Lakes... A second day of dry and breezy conditions could support locally elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. Southerly winds of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the surface low and cold front. East and north of the deeper surface moisture, RH values should be below 35%. While not overly dry, and likely modulated by mid and high-level clouds, RH values should be dry enough to support some threat for fire danger given the gusty winds and extremely dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to eject over the central Plains Wednesday as strong flow aloft linger over the southern Rockies. A lee low over southeastern CO will deepen slightly before moving northeast along a cold front across KS and OK. Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... Downslope winds are again expected to be strong across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible behind a lee trough/dryline across western OK and the TX Panhandle. With RH values of 15-20% widespread elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of the southern High Plains. Sustained critical conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern TX Panhandle, but current model guidance suggests these may be brief. Thus, critical highlights could be needed in future updates if model consensus shows longer duration surface winds greater than 25 mph. ...Midwest and Great Lakes... A second day of dry and breezy conditions could support locally elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. Southerly winds of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the surface low and cold front. East and north of the deeper surface moisture, RH values should be below 35%. While not overly dry, and likely modulated by mid and high-level clouds, RH values should be dry enough to support some threat for fire danger given the gusty winds and extremely dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few hours. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front passes. ...Midwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal, low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few hours. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front passes. ...Midwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal, low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few hours. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front passes. ...Midwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal, low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few hours. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front passes. ...Midwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal, low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few hours. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front passes. ...Midwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal, low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Wednesday across the southern and central Plains extending eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Ozarks... An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, as a fetch of southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The trough is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by late Wednesday afternoon as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F, with weak instability developing by afternoon over much of the pre-frontal airmass. Convective initiation is expected to occur early in the period across the central Plains extending northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will be likely as cells increase in coverage during the late morning and early afternoon. MCS development is expected to take place by afternoon, with a relatively large convective cluster or line gradually moving eastward across eastern and southern Kansas extending southward into Oklahoma. Strong low-level flow, large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough, rich low-level moisture and moderate deep-layer shear will be favorable for a severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening. The strongest instability is forecast to develop across southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon. In this area, NAM forecast soundings increase MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg by 21Z, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 50 and 60 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity peaking in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This environment appears likely to support supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible with rotating storms that remain discrete. As the MCS increases in size during the afternoon, a mixed mode is expected with supercells and organized multicells. Some models, like the ECMWF, suggest the convection will line out in the central Plains. This would favor a wind-damage threat along the leading edge of the line. The most favorable threat for severe storms would be with rotating storms embedded in the line, and with discrete cells ahead of the line. Further south into Oklahoma, cells are forecast to be primarily discrete suggesting that a severe threat with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely. A tornado threat could also develop southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should eventually impact parts of north Texas. A severe threat is expected to persist into the late evening, and perhaps into the early overnight period, as the MCS moves through the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Wednesday across the southern and central Plains extending eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Ozarks... An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, as a fetch of southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The trough is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by late Wednesday afternoon as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F, with weak instability developing by afternoon over much of the pre-frontal airmass. Convective initiation is expected to occur early in the period across the central Plains extending northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will be likely as cells increase in coverage during the late morning and early afternoon. MCS development is expected to take place by afternoon, with a relatively large convective cluster or line gradually moving eastward across eastern and southern Kansas extending southward into Oklahoma. Strong low-level flow, large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough, rich low-level moisture and moderate deep-layer shear will be favorable for a severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening. The strongest instability is forecast to develop across southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon. In this area, NAM forecast soundings increase MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg by 21Z, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 50 and 60 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity peaking in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This environment appears likely to support supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible with rotating storms that remain discrete. As the MCS increases in size during the afternoon, a mixed mode is expected with supercells and organized multicells. Some models, like the ECMWF, suggest the convection will line out in the central Plains. This would favor a wind-damage threat along the leading edge of the line. The most favorable threat for severe storms would be with rotating storms embedded in the line, and with discrete cells ahead of the line. Further south into Oklahoma, cells are forecast to be primarily discrete suggesting that a severe threat with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely. A tornado threat could also develop southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should eventually impact parts of north Texas. A severe threat is expected to persist into the late evening, and perhaps into the early overnight period, as the MCS moves through the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Wednesday across the southern and central Plains extending eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Ozarks... An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, as a fetch of southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The trough is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by late Wednesday afternoon as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F, with weak instability developing by afternoon over much of the pre-frontal airmass. Convective initiation is expected to occur early in the period across the central Plains extending northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will be likely as cells increase in coverage during the late morning and early afternoon. MCS development is expected to take place by afternoon, with a relatively large convective cluster or line gradually moving eastward across eastern and southern Kansas extending southward into Oklahoma. Strong low-level flow, large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough, rich low-level moisture and moderate deep-layer shear will be favorable for a severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening. The strongest instability is forecast to develop across southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon. In this area, NAM forecast soundings increase MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg by 21Z, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 50 and 60 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity peaking in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This environment appears likely to support supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible with rotating storms that remain discrete. As the MCS increases in size during the afternoon, a mixed mode is expected with supercells and organized multicells. Some models, like the ECMWF, suggest the convection will line out in the central Plains. This would favor a wind-damage threat along the leading edge of the line. The most favorable threat for severe storms would be with rotating storms embedded in the line, and with discrete cells ahead of the line. Further south into Oklahoma, cells are forecast to be primarily discrete suggesting that a severe threat with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely. A tornado threat could also develop southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should eventually impact parts of north Texas. A severe threat is expected to persist into the late evening, and perhaps into the early overnight period, as the MCS moves through the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Wednesday across the southern and central Plains extending eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Ozarks... An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, as a fetch of southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The trough is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by late Wednesday afternoon as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F, with weak instability developing by afternoon over much of the pre-frontal airmass. Convective initiation is expected to occur early in the period across the central Plains extending northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will be likely as cells increase in coverage during the late morning and early afternoon. MCS development is expected to take place by afternoon, with a relatively large convective cluster or line gradually moving eastward across eastern and southern Kansas extending southward into Oklahoma. Strong low-level flow, large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough, rich low-level moisture and moderate deep-layer shear will be favorable for a severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening. The strongest instability is forecast to develop across southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon. In this area, NAM forecast soundings increase MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg by 21Z, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 50 and 60 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity peaking in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This environment appears likely to support supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible with rotating storms that remain discrete. As the MCS increases in size during the afternoon, a mixed mode is expected with supercells and organized multicells. Some models, like the ECMWF, suggest the convection will line out in the central Plains. This would favor a wind-damage threat along the leading edge of the line. The most favorable threat for severe storms would be with rotating storms embedded in the line, and with discrete cells ahead of the line. Further south into Oklahoma, cells are forecast to be primarily discrete suggesting that a severe threat with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely. A tornado threat could also develop southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should eventually impact parts of north Texas. A severe threat is expected to persist into the late evening, and perhaps into the early overnight period, as the MCS moves through the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 10/29/2024 Read more