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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The elevated area was trimmed in parts of southern Nebraska based on the observed frontal position. As the surface low deepens, locally elevated conditions may occur in these areas, but the duration should be quite brief. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few hours. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front passes. ...Midwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal, low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The elevated area was trimmed in parts of southern Nebraska based on the observed frontal position. As the surface low deepens, locally elevated conditions may occur in these areas, but the duration should be quite brief. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few hours. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front passes. ...Midwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal, low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The elevated area was trimmed in parts of southern Nebraska based on the observed frontal position. As the surface low deepens, locally elevated conditions may occur in these areas, but the duration should be quite brief. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few hours. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front passes. ...Midwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal, low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The elevated area was trimmed in parts of southern Nebraska based on the observed frontal position. As the surface low deepens, locally elevated conditions may occur in these areas, but the duration should be quite brief. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few hours. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front passes. ...Midwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal, low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The elevated area was trimmed in parts of southern Nebraska based on the observed frontal position. As the surface low deepens, locally elevated conditions may occur in these areas, but the duration should be quite brief. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few hours. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front passes. ...Midwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal, low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The elevated area was trimmed in parts of southern Nebraska based on the observed frontal position. As the surface low deepens, locally elevated conditions may occur in these areas, but the duration should be quite brief. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few hours. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front passes. ...Midwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal, low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). ..Gleason/Mosier.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). ..Gleason/Mosier.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). ..Gleason/Mosier.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). ..Gleason/Mosier.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). ..Gleason/Mosier.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). ..Gleason/Mosier.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). ..Gleason/Mosier.. 10/29/2024 Read more

The Beaumont area has had many water main breaks due to the very dry soil. The number of water leaks was also very high in 2023 during drought. KFDM Channel 6 (Beaumont, Texas), Oct 29, 2024

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight from the Upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestward across the central and southern Plains, with some potential for storms to produce severe hail and/or wind. ...Central/Southern Plains... A prominent mid/upper-level trough centered over the Great Basin and Southwest Deserts will continue generally eastward toward the central/southern Rockies through late tonight. Preceding this upper trough will be a nocturnally maximized strong southwesterly low-level jet, with a strengthening lee trough and increasing warm-sector low-level moisture in advance of a cold front (and southern Plains surface trough/dryline), that will generally extend by late tonight from the Upper Midwest southwestward across Nebraska/Kansas into the southern High Plains. Given limited initial height falls and modest-quality autumnal low-level moisture, it is likely that a mid-level cap generally based around 800 mb will persist regionally through the peak heating cycle, with increasing prospects for deepening convection focused in the overnight and early morning hours of Wednesday. This could start across central Nebraska/northern Kansas near the cold front as early as late evening or early in the overnight, with a subsequent southward expansion across Kansas into western Oklahoma and possibly the far eastern Texas Panhandle through the predawn hours, where a conditional potential for near-surface-based storms may exist coincident with roughly 60-63F surface dewpoints. Given the strength of the wind field and increasing moisture/modest buoyancy regionally, organized thunderstorms are possible with some localized potential for severe hail and wind late tonight. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight from the Upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestward across the central and southern Plains, with some potential for storms to produce severe hail and/or wind. ...Central/Southern Plains... A prominent mid/upper-level trough centered over the Great Basin and Southwest Deserts will continue generally eastward toward the central/southern Rockies through late tonight. Preceding this upper trough will be a nocturnally maximized strong southwesterly low-level jet, with a strengthening lee trough and increasing warm-sector low-level moisture in advance of a cold front (and southern Plains surface trough/dryline), that will generally extend by late tonight from the Upper Midwest southwestward across Nebraska/Kansas into the southern High Plains. Given limited initial height falls and modest-quality autumnal low-level moisture, it is likely that a mid-level cap generally based around 800 mb will persist regionally through the peak heating cycle, with increasing prospects for deepening convection focused in the overnight and early morning hours of Wednesday. This could start across central Nebraska/northern Kansas near the cold front as early as late evening or early in the overnight, with a subsequent southward expansion across Kansas into western Oklahoma and possibly the far eastern Texas Panhandle through the predawn hours, where a conditional potential for near-surface-based storms may exist coincident with roughly 60-63F surface dewpoints. Given the strength of the wind field and increasing moisture/modest buoyancy regionally, organized thunderstorms are possible with some localized potential for severe hail and wind late tonight. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight from the Upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestward across the central and southern Plains, with some potential for storms to produce severe hail and/or wind. ...Central/Southern Plains... A prominent mid/upper-level trough centered over the Great Basin and Southwest Deserts will continue generally eastward toward the central/southern Rockies through late tonight. Preceding this upper trough will be a nocturnally maximized strong southwesterly low-level jet, with a strengthening lee trough and increasing warm-sector low-level moisture in advance of a cold front (and southern Plains surface trough/dryline), that will generally extend by late tonight from the Upper Midwest southwestward across Nebraska/Kansas into the southern High Plains. Given limited initial height falls and modest-quality autumnal low-level moisture, it is likely that a mid-level cap generally based around 800 mb will persist regionally through the peak heating cycle, with increasing prospects for deepening convection focused in the overnight and early morning hours of Wednesday. This could start across central Nebraska/northern Kansas near the cold front as early as late evening or early in the overnight, with a subsequent southward expansion across Kansas into western Oklahoma and possibly the far eastern Texas Panhandle through the predawn hours, where a conditional potential for near-surface-based storms may exist coincident with roughly 60-63F surface dewpoints. Given the strength of the wind field and increasing moisture/modest buoyancy regionally, organized thunderstorms are possible with some localized potential for severe hail and wind late tonight. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/29/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to dig south-southeastward into California on Friday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains. On Saturday, an upper-level low is forecast to close off over southern California. The southwesterly flow pattern will be favorable for moisture advection in the southern Plains over the weekend. Surface dewpoints are forecast to return into the 60s F across much of the southern Plains, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop both Friday and Saturday. The latest model forecasts for this period suggest that MLCAPE will peak each afternoon in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear remaining around 30 knots. This, combined with a lack of large-scale ascent, is expected to keep any severe threat marginal across the region. Strong wind gusts and hail should be the primary threats. The upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward towards southwestern Arizona on Sunday, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. Weak destabilization and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the jet should support an isolated severe threat across parts of west Texas Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level jet is forecast to move across the southern and central Plains over a weakly unstable airmass. Thunderstorm development is expected each day from parts of central and north Texas northward into Kansas. Although a severe threat will be possible each afternoon, weak instability is expected to keep any severe potential relatively isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to dig south-southeastward into California on Friday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains. On Saturday, an upper-level low is forecast to close off over southern California. The southwesterly flow pattern will be favorable for moisture advection in the southern Plains over the weekend. Surface dewpoints are forecast to return into the 60s F across much of the southern Plains, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop both Friday and Saturday. The latest model forecasts for this period suggest that MLCAPE will peak each afternoon in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear remaining around 30 knots. This, combined with a lack of large-scale ascent, is expected to keep any severe threat marginal across the region. Strong wind gusts and hail should be the primary threats. The upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward towards southwestern Arizona on Sunday, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. Weak destabilization and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the jet should support an isolated severe threat across parts of west Texas Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level jet is forecast to move across the southern and central Plains over a weakly unstable airmass. Thunderstorm development is expected each day from parts of central and north Texas northward into Kansas. Although a severe threat will be possible each afternoon, weak instability is expected to keep any severe potential relatively isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to dig south-southeastward into California on Friday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains. On Saturday, an upper-level low is forecast to close off over southern California. The southwesterly flow pattern will be favorable for moisture advection in the southern Plains over the weekend. Surface dewpoints are forecast to return into the 60s F across much of the southern Plains, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop both Friday and Saturday. The latest model forecasts for this period suggest that MLCAPE will peak each afternoon in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear remaining around 30 knots. This, combined with a lack of large-scale ascent, is expected to keep any severe threat marginal across the region. Strong wind gusts and hail should be the primary threats. The upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward towards southwestern Arizona on Sunday, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. Weak destabilization and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the jet should support an isolated severe threat across parts of west Texas Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level jet is forecast to move across the southern and central Plains over a weakly unstable airmass. Thunderstorm development is expected each day from parts of central and north Texas northward into Kansas. Although a severe threat will be possible each afternoon, weak instability is expected to keep any severe potential relatively isolated. Read more