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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms, capable of producing gusty/damaging winds and possibly a tornado, are expected Thursday morning and afternoon within a narrow zone extending from the Midwest to East Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough is forecast to cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and then Upper Great Lakes region Thursday, before continuing across Ontario and eventually Quebec and the Lower Great Lakes Thursday night. Meanwhile farther west, an upper low will gradually move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest, and eventually New England and the Northeast, while sagging more slowly southward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys through Friday morning. ...Lower Michigan southwestward across parts of East Texas... A frontal band of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to extend from the Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan vicinity southwestward to eastern Texas at the start of the period, accompanied by limited/local risk for gusty winds. As the front advances, instability should remain quite limited -- particularly from the Ohio Valley northward. Still, tall/thin CAPE profiles combined with favorably strong/veering flow with height suggest local/limited risk for strong wind gusts -- and possibly a tornado -- as far north as the Lower Michigan vicinity. As such, an expansion of Level 1/MRGL risk is being included for this forecast cycle. Potential for stronger storms will remain largely confined to the daytime hours, though may linger locally into the evening over southern potions of the risk area (the Tennessee area southward). ..Goss.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms, capable of producing gusty/damaging winds and possibly a tornado, are expected Thursday morning and afternoon within a narrow zone extending from the Midwest to East Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough is forecast to cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and then Upper Great Lakes region Thursday, before continuing across Ontario and eventually Quebec and the Lower Great Lakes Thursday night. Meanwhile farther west, an upper low will gradually move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest, and eventually New England and the Northeast, while sagging more slowly southward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys through Friday morning. ...Lower Michigan southwestward across parts of East Texas... A frontal band of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to extend from the Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan vicinity southwestward to eastern Texas at the start of the period, accompanied by limited/local risk for gusty winds. As the front advances, instability should remain quite limited -- particularly from the Ohio Valley northward. Still, tall/thin CAPE profiles combined with favorably strong/veering flow with height suggest local/limited risk for strong wind gusts -- and possibly a tornado -- as far north as the Lower Michigan vicinity. As such, an expansion of Level 1/MRGL risk is being included for this forecast cycle. Potential for stronger storms will remain largely confined to the daytime hours, though may linger locally into the evening over southern potions of the risk area (the Tennessee area southward). ..Goss.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms, capable of producing gusty/damaging winds and possibly a tornado, are expected Thursday morning and afternoon within a narrow zone extending from the Midwest to East Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough is forecast to cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and then Upper Great Lakes region Thursday, before continuing across Ontario and eventually Quebec and the Lower Great Lakes Thursday night. Meanwhile farther west, an upper low will gradually move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest, and eventually New England and the Northeast, while sagging more slowly southward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys through Friday morning. ...Lower Michigan southwestward across parts of East Texas... A frontal band of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to extend from the Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan vicinity southwestward to eastern Texas at the start of the period, accompanied by limited/local risk for gusty winds. As the front advances, instability should remain quite limited -- particularly from the Ohio Valley northward. Still, tall/thin CAPE profiles combined with favorably strong/veering flow with height suggest local/limited risk for strong wind gusts -- and possibly a tornado -- as far north as the Lower Michigan vicinity. As such, an expansion of Level 1/MRGL risk is being included for this forecast cycle. Potential for stronger storms will remain largely confined to the daytime hours, though may linger locally into the evening over southern potions of the risk area (the Tennessee area southward). ..Goss.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Potential for critical fire weather remains within parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. While high-resolution ensemble guidance does show critical conditions during the afternoon, these conditions generally translate eastward with time leaving overall duration in doubt. Further, continued moisture flux into the region (and better overnight RH recovery) increases uncertainty in fine fuel dryness. Locally critical conditions are probable, but confidence in sustained critical conditions is only low to medium. Trends will continue to be monitored. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to eject over the central Plains Wednesday as strong flow aloft linger over the southern Rockies. A lee low over southeastern CO will deepen slightly before moving northeast along a cold front across KS and OK. Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... Downslope winds are again expected to be strong across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible behind a lee trough/dryline across western OK and the TX Panhandle. With RH values of 15-20% widespread elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of the southern High Plains. Sustained critical conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern TX Panhandle, but current model guidance suggests these may be brief. Thus, critical highlights could be needed in future updates if model consensus shows longer duration surface winds greater than 25 mph. ...Midwest and Great Lakes... A second day of dry and breezy conditions could support locally elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. Southerly winds of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the surface low and cold front. East and north of the deeper surface moisture, RH values should be below 35%. While not overly dry, and likely modulated by mid and high-level clouds, RH values should be dry enough to support some threat for fire danger given the gusty winds and extremely dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Potential for critical fire weather remains within parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. While high-resolution ensemble guidance does show critical conditions during the afternoon, these conditions generally translate eastward with time leaving overall duration in doubt. Further, continued moisture flux into the region (and better overnight RH recovery) increases uncertainty in fine fuel dryness. Locally critical conditions are probable, but confidence in sustained critical conditions is only low to medium. Trends will continue to be monitored. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to eject over the central Plains Wednesday as strong flow aloft linger over the southern Rockies. A lee low over southeastern CO will deepen slightly before moving northeast along a cold front across KS and OK. Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... Downslope winds are again expected to be strong across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible behind a lee trough/dryline across western OK and the TX Panhandle. With RH values of 15-20% widespread elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of the southern High Plains. Sustained critical conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern TX Panhandle, but current model guidance suggests these may be brief. Thus, critical highlights could be needed in future updates if model consensus shows longer duration surface winds greater than 25 mph. ...Midwest and Great Lakes... A second day of dry and breezy conditions could support locally elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. Southerly winds of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the surface low and cold front. East and north of the deeper surface moisture, RH values should be below 35%. While not overly dry, and likely modulated by mid and high-level clouds, RH values should be dry enough to support some threat for fire danger given the gusty winds and extremely dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Potential for critical fire weather remains within parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. While high-resolution ensemble guidance does show critical conditions during the afternoon, these conditions generally translate eastward with time leaving overall duration in doubt. Further, continued moisture flux into the region (and better overnight RH recovery) increases uncertainty in fine fuel dryness. Locally critical conditions are probable, but confidence in sustained critical conditions is only low to medium. Trends will continue to be monitored. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to eject over the central Plains Wednesday as strong flow aloft linger over the southern Rockies. A lee low over southeastern CO will deepen slightly before moving northeast along a cold front across KS and OK. Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... Downslope winds are again expected to be strong across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible behind a lee trough/dryline across western OK and the TX Panhandle. With RH values of 15-20% widespread elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of the southern High Plains. Sustained critical conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern TX Panhandle, but current model guidance suggests these may be brief. Thus, critical highlights could be needed in future updates if model consensus shows longer duration surface winds greater than 25 mph. ...Midwest and Great Lakes... A second day of dry and breezy conditions could support locally elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. Southerly winds of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the surface low and cold front. East and north of the deeper surface moisture, RH values should be below 35%. While not overly dry, and likely modulated by mid and high-level clouds, RH values should be dry enough to support some threat for fire danger given the gusty winds and extremely dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Potential for critical fire weather remains within parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. While high-resolution ensemble guidance does show critical conditions during the afternoon, these conditions generally translate eastward with time leaving overall duration in doubt. Further, continued moisture flux into the region (and better overnight RH recovery) increases uncertainty in fine fuel dryness. Locally critical conditions are probable, but confidence in sustained critical conditions is only low to medium. Trends will continue to be monitored. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to eject over the central Plains Wednesday as strong flow aloft linger over the southern Rockies. A lee low over southeastern CO will deepen slightly before moving northeast along a cold front across KS and OK. Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... Downslope winds are again expected to be strong across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible behind a lee trough/dryline across western OK and the TX Panhandle. With RH values of 15-20% widespread elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of the southern High Plains. Sustained critical conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern TX Panhandle, but current model guidance suggests these may be brief. Thus, critical highlights could be needed in future updates if model consensus shows longer duration surface winds greater than 25 mph. ...Midwest and Great Lakes... A second day of dry and breezy conditions could support locally elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. Southerly winds of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the surface low and cold front. East and north of the deeper surface moisture, RH values should be below 35%. While not overly dry, and likely modulated by mid and high-level clouds, RH values should be dry enough to support some threat for fire danger given the gusty winds and extremely dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Potential for critical fire weather remains within parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. While high-resolution ensemble guidance does show critical conditions during the afternoon, these conditions generally translate eastward with time leaving overall duration in doubt. Further, continued moisture flux into the region (and better overnight RH recovery) increases uncertainty in fine fuel dryness. Locally critical conditions are probable, but confidence in sustained critical conditions is only low to medium. Trends will continue to be monitored. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to eject over the central Plains Wednesday as strong flow aloft linger over the southern Rockies. A lee low over southeastern CO will deepen slightly before moving northeast along a cold front across KS and OK. Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... Downslope winds are again expected to be strong across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible behind a lee trough/dryline across western OK and the TX Panhandle. With RH values of 15-20% widespread elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of the southern High Plains. Sustained critical conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern TX Panhandle, but current model guidance suggests these may be brief. Thus, critical highlights could be needed in future updates if model consensus shows longer duration surface winds greater than 25 mph. ...Midwest and Great Lakes... A second day of dry and breezy conditions could support locally elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. Southerly winds of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the surface low and cold front. East and north of the deeper surface moisture, RH values should be below 35%. While not overly dry, and likely modulated by mid and high-level clouds, RH values should be dry enough to support some threat for fire danger given the gusty winds and extremely dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Potential for critical fire weather remains within parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. While high-resolution ensemble guidance does show critical conditions during the afternoon, these conditions generally translate eastward with time leaving overall duration in doubt. Further, continued moisture flux into the region (and better overnight RH recovery) increases uncertainty in fine fuel dryness. Locally critical conditions are probable, but confidence in sustained critical conditions is only low to medium. Trends will continue to be monitored. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to eject over the central Plains Wednesday as strong flow aloft linger over the southern Rockies. A lee low over southeastern CO will deepen slightly before moving northeast along a cold front across KS and OK. Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... Downslope winds are again expected to be strong across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible behind a lee trough/dryline across western OK and the TX Panhandle. With RH values of 15-20% widespread elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of the southern High Plains. Sustained critical conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern TX Panhandle, but current model guidance suggests these may be brief. Thus, critical highlights could be needed in future updates if model consensus shows longer duration surface winds greater than 25 mph. ...Midwest and Great Lakes... A second day of dry and breezy conditions could support locally elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. Southerly winds of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the surface low and cold front. East and north of the deeper surface moisture, RH values should be below 35%. While not overly dry, and likely modulated by mid and high-level clouds, RH values should be dry enough to support some threat for fire danger given the gusty winds and extremely dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Potential for critical fire weather remains within parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. While high-resolution ensemble guidance does show critical conditions during the afternoon, these conditions generally translate eastward with time leaving overall duration in doubt. Further, continued moisture flux into the region (and better overnight RH recovery) increases uncertainty in fine fuel dryness. Locally critical conditions are probable, but confidence in sustained critical conditions is only low to medium. Trends will continue to be monitored. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to eject over the central Plains Wednesday as strong flow aloft linger over the southern Rockies. A lee low over southeastern CO will deepen slightly before moving northeast along a cold front across KS and OK. Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... Downslope winds are again expected to be strong across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible behind a lee trough/dryline across western OK and the TX Panhandle. With RH values of 15-20% widespread elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of the southern High Plains. Sustained critical conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern TX Panhandle, but current model guidance suggests these may be brief. Thus, critical highlights could be needed in future updates if model consensus shows longer duration surface winds greater than 25 mph. ...Midwest and Great Lakes... A second day of dry and breezy conditions could support locally elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. Southerly winds of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the surface low and cold front. East and north of the deeper surface moisture, RH values should be below 35%. While not overly dry, and likely modulated by mid and high-level clouds, RH values should be dry enough to support some threat for fire danger given the gusty winds and extremely dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected on Wednesday across central portions of the country -- particularly from the middle Missouri Valley area southward to North Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially aligned across the interior West will progress east-northeastward out of the Rockies and into the Plains during the afternoon and evening, and then will continue onward toward/into the Mid- and Upper-Mississippi Valley area overnight. At the surface, a cold front will initially extend northeast-to-southwest across the central U.S. -- from the Lake Superior vicinity southwestward to southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. This front will make only gradual eastward progress initially, as a frontal wave develops in the southeastern Kansas vicinity and then shifts quickly northeastward along the baroclinic zone through the day -- to a position near Topeka around sunset. From there, as the low deepens and progresses toward Wisconsin, the trailing cold front will begin to surge more quickly eastward/southeastward, and should extend across central Illinois, southeastern Missouri, Arkansas, to central Texas by Thursday morning. ...Mid-Mississippi/Mid-Missouri Valleys across northeastern Texas... As the advancing upper system shifts out of the Rockies and across the High Plains through the day, large-scale ascent -- focused near the cold front -- will gradually increase. Ahead of the front, a moist (60s dewpoints) airmass will be in place along/ahead of the front across the central/southern Plains, and should spread northward across Iowa and into Wisconsin through the day. This, combined with daytime heating and modestly steep lapse rates aloft, will allow gradual/steady destabilization to occur through the morning and afternoon hours. Initial storm development is forecast by mid to late morning, in the eastern Nebraska/northeastern Kansas/western Iowa vicinity, and then expanding northeastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley, and southward across eastern Kansas, through the afternoon. In addition to the amply unstable environment that will be evolving (mixed-layer CAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range), increasingly favorable shear will also evolve with time. This will occur as mid-level southwesterly flow associated with the advancing upper system spreads eastward across the central Plains, atop low-level southerly flow near/ahead of the forecast track of the frontal low. The resulting wind field -- veering favorably and increasing in speed with height through the lowest half of the troposphere -- will support supercells. It appears that convection should remain at least somewhat cellular through the daylight hours from the Topeka/Kansas City vicinity southward, which would correspond with risk for a few tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging wind potential. Farther to the northeast, across Iowa and into Wisconsin, risk should remain lower, given lesser instability. Overall, storms should gradually grow upscale linearly, and will shift eastward with time across Iowa and into Missouri -- and eventually Illinois overnight, accompanied by at least limited severe risk into the overnight hours. Farther south into Oklahoma and Texas, storm development should occur later, likely not until after dark. Still, with the thermodynamic and kinematic environment favoring rotating storms, the all-hazards severe risk should expand southward across Oklahoma and into northern and possibly central Texas. With time, storms should grow upscale linearly across this region as well, after the initial/primarily cellular mode. Like areas farther north, at least some severe risk should continue overnight, spreading eastward into Arkansas and East Texas with time. ..Goss.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected on Wednesday across central portions of the country -- particularly from the middle Missouri Valley area southward to North Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially aligned across the interior West will progress east-northeastward out of the Rockies and into the Plains during the afternoon and evening, and then will continue onward toward/into the Mid- and Upper-Mississippi Valley area overnight. At the surface, a cold front will initially extend northeast-to-southwest across the central U.S. -- from the Lake Superior vicinity southwestward to southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. This front will make only gradual eastward progress initially, as a frontal wave develops in the southeastern Kansas vicinity and then shifts quickly northeastward along the baroclinic zone through the day -- to a position near Topeka around sunset. From there, as the low deepens and progresses toward Wisconsin, the trailing cold front will begin to surge more quickly eastward/southeastward, and should extend across central Illinois, southeastern Missouri, Arkansas, to central Texas by Thursday morning. ...Mid-Mississippi/Mid-Missouri Valleys across northeastern Texas... As the advancing upper system shifts out of the Rockies and across the High Plains through the day, large-scale ascent -- focused near the cold front -- will gradually increase. Ahead of the front, a moist (60s dewpoints) airmass will be in place along/ahead of the front across the central/southern Plains, and should spread northward across Iowa and into Wisconsin through the day. This, combined with daytime heating and modestly steep lapse rates aloft, will allow gradual/steady destabilization to occur through the morning and afternoon hours. Initial storm development is forecast by mid to late morning, in the eastern Nebraska/northeastern Kansas/western Iowa vicinity, and then expanding northeastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley, and southward across eastern Kansas, through the afternoon. In addition to the amply unstable environment that will be evolving (mixed-layer CAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range), increasingly favorable shear will also evolve with time. This will occur as mid-level southwesterly flow associated with the advancing upper system spreads eastward across the central Plains, atop low-level southerly flow near/ahead of the forecast track of the frontal low. The resulting wind field -- veering favorably and increasing in speed with height through the lowest half of the troposphere -- will support supercells. It appears that convection should remain at least somewhat cellular through the daylight hours from the Topeka/Kansas City vicinity southward, which would correspond with risk for a few tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging wind potential. Farther to the northeast, across Iowa and into Wisconsin, risk should remain lower, given lesser instability. Overall, storms should gradually grow upscale linearly, and will shift eastward with time across Iowa and into Missouri -- and eventually Illinois overnight, accompanied by at least limited severe risk into the overnight hours. Farther south into Oklahoma and Texas, storm development should occur later, likely not until after dark. Still, with the thermodynamic and kinematic environment favoring rotating storms, the all-hazards severe risk should expand southward across Oklahoma and into northern and possibly central Texas. With time, storms should grow upscale linearly across this region as well, after the initial/primarily cellular mode. Like areas farther north, at least some severe risk should continue overnight, spreading eastward into Arkansas and East Texas with time. ..Goss.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected on Wednesday across central portions of the country -- particularly from the middle Missouri Valley area southward to North Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially aligned across the interior West will progress east-northeastward out of the Rockies and into the Plains during the afternoon and evening, and then will continue onward toward/into the Mid- and Upper-Mississippi Valley area overnight. At the surface, a cold front will initially extend northeast-to-southwest across the central U.S. -- from the Lake Superior vicinity southwestward to southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. This front will make only gradual eastward progress initially, as a frontal wave develops in the southeastern Kansas vicinity and then shifts quickly northeastward along the baroclinic zone through the day -- to a position near Topeka around sunset. From there, as the low deepens and progresses toward Wisconsin, the trailing cold front will begin to surge more quickly eastward/southeastward, and should extend across central Illinois, southeastern Missouri, Arkansas, to central Texas by Thursday morning. ...Mid-Mississippi/Mid-Missouri Valleys across northeastern Texas... As the advancing upper system shifts out of the Rockies and across the High Plains through the day, large-scale ascent -- focused near the cold front -- will gradually increase. Ahead of the front, a moist (60s dewpoints) airmass will be in place along/ahead of the front across the central/southern Plains, and should spread northward across Iowa and into Wisconsin through the day. This, combined with daytime heating and modestly steep lapse rates aloft, will allow gradual/steady destabilization to occur through the morning and afternoon hours. Initial storm development is forecast by mid to late morning, in the eastern Nebraska/northeastern Kansas/western Iowa vicinity, and then expanding northeastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley, and southward across eastern Kansas, through the afternoon. In addition to the amply unstable environment that will be evolving (mixed-layer CAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range), increasingly favorable shear will also evolve with time. This will occur as mid-level southwesterly flow associated with the advancing upper system spreads eastward across the central Plains, atop low-level southerly flow near/ahead of the forecast track of the frontal low. The resulting wind field -- veering favorably and increasing in speed with height through the lowest half of the troposphere -- will support supercells. It appears that convection should remain at least somewhat cellular through the daylight hours from the Topeka/Kansas City vicinity southward, which would correspond with risk for a few tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging wind potential. Farther to the northeast, across Iowa and into Wisconsin, risk should remain lower, given lesser instability. Overall, storms should gradually grow upscale linearly, and will shift eastward with time across Iowa and into Missouri -- and eventually Illinois overnight, accompanied by at least limited severe risk into the overnight hours. Farther south into Oklahoma and Texas, storm development should occur later, likely not until after dark. Still, with the thermodynamic and kinematic environment favoring rotating storms, the all-hazards severe risk should expand southward across Oklahoma and into northern and possibly central Texas. With time, storms should grow upscale linearly across this region as well, after the initial/primarily cellular mode. Like areas farther north, at least some severe risk should continue overnight, spreading eastward into Arkansas and East Texas with time. ..Goss.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected on Wednesday across central portions of the country -- particularly from the middle Missouri Valley area southward to North Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially aligned across the interior West will progress east-northeastward out of the Rockies and into the Plains during the afternoon and evening, and then will continue onward toward/into the Mid- and Upper-Mississippi Valley area overnight. At the surface, a cold front will initially extend northeast-to-southwest across the central U.S. -- from the Lake Superior vicinity southwestward to southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. This front will make only gradual eastward progress initially, as a frontal wave develops in the southeastern Kansas vicinity and then shifts quickly northeastward along the baroclinic zone through the day -- to a position near Topeka around sunset. From there, as the low deepens and progresses toward Wisconsin, the trailing cold front will begin to surge more quickly eastward/southeastward, and should extend across central Illinois, southeastern Missouri, Arkansas, to central Texas by Thursday morning. ...Mid-Mississippi/Mid-Missouri Valleys across northeastern Texas... As the advancing upper system shifts out of the Rockies and across the High Plains through the day, large-scale ascent -- focused near the cold front -- will gradually increase. Ahead of the front, a moist (60s dewpoints) airmass will be in place along/ahead of the front across the central/southern Plains, and should spread northward across Iowa and into Wisconsin through the day. This, combined with daytime heating and modestly steep lapse rates aloft, will allow gradual/steady destabilization to occur through the morning and afternoon hours. Initial storm development is forecast by mid to late morning, in the eastern Nebraska/northeastern Kansas/western Iowa vicinity, and then expanding northeastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley, and southward across eastern Kansas, through the afternoon. In addition to the amply unstable environment that will be evolving (mixed-layer CAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range), increasingly favorable shear will also evolve with time. This will occur as mid-level southwesterly flow associated with the advancing upper system spreads eastward across the central Plains, atop low-level southerly flow near/ahead of the forecast track of the frontal low. The resulting wind field -- veering favorably and increasing in speed with height through the lowest half of the troposphere -- will support supercells. It appears that convection should remain at least somewhat cellular through the daylight hours from the Topeka/Kansas City vicinity southward, which would correspond with risk for a few tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging wind potential. Farther to the northeast, across Iowa and into Wisconsin, risk should remain lower, given lesser instability. Overall, storms should gradually grow upscale linearly, and will shift eastward with time across Iowa and into Missouri -- and eventually Illinois overnight, accompanied by at least limited severe risk into the overnight hours. Farther south into Oklahoma and Texas, storm development should occur later, likely not until after dark. Still, with the thermodynamic and kinematic environment favoring rotating storms, the all-hazards severe risk should expand southward across Oklahoma and into northern and possibly central Texas. With time, storms should grow upscale linearly across this region as well, after the initial/primarily cellular mode. Like areas farther north, at least some severe risk should continue overnight, spreading eastward into Arkansas and East Texas with time. ..Goss.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected on Wednesday across central portions of the country -- particularly from the middle Missouri Valley area southward to North Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially aligned across the interior West will progress east-northeastward out of the Rockies and into the Plains during the afternoon and evening, and then will continue onward toward/into the Mid- and Upper-Mississippi Valley area overnight. At the surface, a cold front will initially extend northeast-to-southwest across the central U.S. -- from the Lake Superior vicinity southwestward to southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. This front will make only gradual eastward progress initially, as a frontal wave develops in the southeastern Kansas vicinity and then shifts quickly northeastward along the baroclinic zone through the day -- to a position near Topeka around sunset. From there, as the low deepens and progresses toward Wisconsin, the trailing cold front will begin to surge more quickly eastward/southeastward, and should extend across central Illinois, southeastern Missouri, Arkansas, to central Texas by Thursday morning. ...Mid-Mississippi/Mid-Missouri Valleys across northeastern Texas... As the advancing upper system shifts out of the Rockies and across the High Plains through the day, large-scale ascent -- focused near the cold front -- will gradually increase. Ahead of the front, a moist (60s dewpoints) airmass will be in place along/ahead of the front across the central/southern Plains, and should spread northward across Iowa and into Wisconsin through the day. This, combined with daytime heating and modestly steep lapse rates aloft, will allow gradual/steady destabilization to occur through the morning and afternoon hours. Initial storm development is forecast by mid to late morning, in the eastern Nebraska/northeastern Kansas/western Iowa vicinity, and then expanding northeastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley, and southward across eastern Kansas, through the afternoon. In addition to the amply unstable environment that will be evolving (mixed-layer CAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range), increasingly favorable shear will also evolve with time. This will occur as mid-level southwesterly flow associated with the advancing upper system spreads eastward across the central Plains, atop low-level southerly flow near/ahead of the forecast track of the frontal low. The resulting wind field -- veering favorably and increasing in speed with height through the lowest half of the troposphere -- will support supercells. It appears that convection should remain at least somewhat cellular through the daylight hours from the Topeka/Kansas City vicinity southward, which would correspond with risk for a few tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging wind potential. Farther to the northeast, across Iowa and into Wisconsin, risk should remain lower, given lesser instability. Overall, storms should gradually grow upscale linearly, and will shift eastward with time across Iowa and into Missouri -- and eventually Illinois overnight, accompanied by at least limited severe risk into the overnight hours. Farther south into Oklahoma and Texas, storm development should occur later, likely not until after dark. Still, with the thermodynamic and kinematic environment favoring rotating storms, the all-hazards severe risk should expand southward across Oklahoma and into northern and possibly central Texas. With time, storms should grow upscale linearly across this region as well, after the initial/primarily cellular mode. Like areas farther north, at least some severe risk should continue overnight, spreading eastward into Arkansas and East Texas with time. ..Goss.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected on Wednesday across central portions of the country -- particularly from the middle Missouri Valley area southward to North Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially aligned across the interior West will progress east-northeastward out of the Rockies and into the Plains during the afternoon and evening, and then will continue onward toward/into the Mid- and Upper-Mississippi Valley area overnight. At the surface, a cold front will initially extend northeast-to-southwest across the central U.S. -- from the Lake Superior vicinity southwestward to southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. This front will make only gradual eastward progress initially, as a frontal wave develops in the southeastern Kansas vicinity and then shifts quickly northeastward along the baroclinic zone through the day -- to a position near Topeka around sunset. From there, as the low deepens and progresses toward Wisconsin, the trailing cold front will begin to surge more quickly eastward/southeastward, and should extend across central Illinois, southeastern Missouri, Arkansas, to central Texas by Thursday morning. ...Mid-Mississippi/Mid-Missouri Valleys across northeastern Texas... As the advancing upper system shifts out of the Rockies and across the High Plains through the day, large-scale ascent -- focused near the cold front -- will gradually increase. Ahead of the front, a moist (60s dewpoints) airmass will be in place along/ahead of the front across the central/southern Plains, and should spread northward across Iowa and into Wisconsin through the day. This, combined with daytime heating and modestly steep lapse rates aloft, will allow gradual/steady destabilization to occur through the morning and afternoon hours. Initial storm development is forecast by mid to late morning, in the eastern Nebraska/northeastern Kansas/western Iowa vicinity, and then expanding northeastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley, and southward across eastern Kansas, through the afternoon. In addition to the amply unstable environment that will be evolving (mixed-layer CAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range), increasingly favorable shear will also evolve with time. This will occur as mid-level southwesterly flow associated with the advancing upper system spreads eastward across the central Plains, atop low-level southerly flow near/ahead of the forecast track of the frontal low. The resulting wind field -- veering favorably and increasing in speed with height through the lowest half of the troposphere -- will support supercells. It appears that convection should remain at least somewhat cellular through the daylight hours from the Topeka/Kansas City vicinity southward, which would correspond with risk for a few tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging wind potential. Farther to the northeast, across Iowa and into Wisconsin, risk should remain lower, given lesser instability. Overall, storms should gradually grow upscale linearly, and will shift eastward with time across Iowa and into Missouri -- and eventually Illinois overnight, accompanied by at least limited severe risk into the overnight hours. Farther south into Oklahoma and Texas, storm development should occur later, likely not until after dark. Still, with the thermodynamic and kinematic environment favoring rotating storms, the all-hazards severe risk should expand southward across Oklahoma and into northern and possibly central Texas. With time, storms should grow upscale linearly across this region as well, after the initial/primarily cellular mode. Like areas farther north, at least some severe risk should continue overnight, spreading eastward into Arkansas and East Texas with time. ..Goss.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected on Wednesday across central portions of the country -- particularly from the middle Missouri Valley area southward to North Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially aligned across the interior West will progress east-northeastward out of the Rockies and into the Plains during the afternoon and evening, and then will continue onward toward/into the Mid- and Upper-Mississippi Valley area overnight. At the surface, a cold front will initially extend northeast-to-southwest across the central U.S. -- from the Lake Superior vicinity southwestward to southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. This front will make only gradual eastward progress initially, as a frontal wave develops in the southeastern Kansas vicinity and then shifts quickly northeastward along the baroclinic zone through the day -- to a position near Topeka around sunset. From there, as the low deepens and progresses toward Wisconsin, the trailing cold front will begin to surge more quickly eastward/southeastward, and should extend across central Illinois, southeastern Missouri, Arkansas, to central Texas by Thursday morning. ...Mid-Mississippi/Mid-Missouri Valleys across northeastern Texas... As the advancing upper system shifts out of the Rockies and across the High Plains through the day, large-scale ascent -- focused near the cold front -- will gradually increase. Ahead of the front, a moist (60s dewpoints) airmass will be in place along/ahead of the front across the central/southern Plains, and should spread northward across Iowa and into Wisconsin through the day. This, combined with daytime heating and modestly steep lapse rates aloft, will allow gradual/steady destabilization to occur through the morning and afternoon hours. Initial storm development is forecast by mid to late morning, in the eastern Nebraska/northeastern Kansas/western Iowa vicinity, and then expanding northeastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley, and southward across eastern Kansas, through the afternoon. In addition to the amply unstable environment that will be evolving (mixed-layer CAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range), increasingly favorable shear will also evolve with time. This will occur as mid-level southwesterly flow associated with the advancing upper system spreads eastward across the central Plains, atop low-level southerly flow near/ahead of the forecast track of the frontal low. The resulting wind field -- veering favorably and increasing in speed with height through the lowest half of the troposphere -- will support supercells. It appears that convection should remain at least somewhat cellular through the daylight hours from the Topeka/Kansas City vicinity southward, which would correspond with risk for a few tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging wind potential. Farther to the northeast, across Iowa and into Wisconsin, risk should remain lower, given lesser instability. Overall, storms should gradually grow upscale linearly, and will shift eastward with time across Iowa and into Missouri -- and eventually Illinois overnight, accompanied by at least limited severe risk into the overnight hours. Farther south into Oklahoma and Texas, storm development should occur later, likely not until after dark. Still, with the thermodynamic and kinematic environment favoring rotating storms, the all-hazards severe risk should expand southward across Oklahoma and into northern and possibly central Texas. With time, storms should grow upscale linearly across this region as well, after the initial/primarily cellular mode. Like areas farther north, at least some severe risk should continue overnight, spreading eastward into Arkansas and East Texas with time. ..Goss.. 10/29/2024 Read more

Steeplechase of Charleston was cancelled due to ongoing drought. The ground is too hard and dry and lacks suitable turf, making conditions very dangerous for jockeys and the horses. WCIV ABC 4 (Mount Pleasant, S.C.), Oct 29, 2024

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The elevated area was trimmed in parts of southern Nebraska based on the observed frontal position. As the surface low deepens, locally elevated conditions may occur in these areas, but the duration should be quite brief. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few hours. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front passes. ...Midwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal, low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The elevated area was trimmed in parts of southern Nebraska based on the observed frontal position. As the surface low deepens, locally elevated conditions may occur in these areas, but the duration should be quite brief. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few hours. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front passes. ...Midwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal, low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more