Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited across the country on Thursday, though some concerns may emerge across the Big Bend region of southern Texas depending on fuel trends over the next 48 hours. The upper low currently over the Southwest is expected to eject into the southern Plains through late Thursday. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to become more pronounced Thursday afternoon across the central Plains, resulting in strengthening pressure gradient winds across much of TX. Westerly winds between 15-25 mph will be common, and dry air advection, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote RH reductions down to 15-20% across the greater Big Bend region. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high probabilities for sustained elevated fire weather conditions across this region with low to moderate probabilities (30-50%) for critical conditions. While confidence in reasonably high for at least elevated fire weather conditions, fuels across this region are not overly receptive with ERCs generally below the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture values above the 50th percentile. Fire weather highlights may be needed in future forecast updated if fine fuels can sufficiently dry by Thursday afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited across the country on Thursday, though some concerns may emerge across the Big Bend region of southern Texas depending on fuel trends over the next 48 hours. The upper low currently over the Southwest is expected to eject into the southern Plains through late Thursday. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to become more pronounced Thursday afternoon across the central Plains, resulting in strengthening pressure gradient winds across much of TX. Westerly winds between 15-25 mph will be common, and dry air advection, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote RH reductions down to 15-20% across the greater Big Bend region. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high probabilities for sustained elevated fire weather conditions across this region with low to moderate probabilities (30-50%) for critical conditions. While confidence in reasonably high for at least elevated fire weather conditions, fuels across this region are not overly receptive with ERCs generally below the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture values above the 50th percentile. Fire weather highlights may be needed in future forecast updated if fine fuels can sufficiently dry by Thursday afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited across the country on Thursday, though some concerns may emerge across the Big Bend region of southern Texas depending on fuel trends over the next 48 hours. The upper low currently over the Southwest is expected to eject into the southern Plains through late Thursday. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to become more pronounced Thursday afternoon across the central Plains, resulting in strengthening pressure gradient winds across much of TX. Westerly winds between 15-25 mph will be common, and dry air advection, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote RH reductions down to 15-20% across the greater Big Bend region. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high probabilities for sustained elevated fire weather conditions across this region with low to moderate probabilities (30-50%) for critical conditions. While confidence in reasonably high for at least elevated fire weather conditions, fuels across this region are not overly receptive with ERCs generally below the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture values above the 50th percentile. Fire weather highlights may be needed in future forecast updated if fine fuels can sufficiently dry by Thursday afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low initially forecast to lie over the southeastern Colorado area is expected to move steadily eastward Day 2/Thursday, crossing Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually shifting into/across the Ozarks through 31/12Z. At the surface, a very weak surface low expected over northeastern Texas Thursday morning is expected to shift north-northeastward with time, with some deepening of the low expected through latter stages of the period as it moves into the Illinois/Indiana area. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will sweep across eastern Texas early in the period, across the Lower Mississippi Valley area through the evening, and should lie from Indiana southward across Kentucky and Tennessee, to the mouth of the Mississippi River by the end of the period. ...East Texas to western Mississippi... As the surface cold front shifts eastward through the day, southerly low-level winds within the warm sector will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Weak lapse rates will substantially hinder destabilization, but low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated showers and storms should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving across the eastern half of Texas. As low-level moistening allows storms to gradually become surface-based, potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase. Risk should become maximized through the late afternoon and early evening hours, expanding into/across Louisiana with time. While the meager instability should temper the overall risk, favorably strong low-level and deep-layer shear across the region will exist, with low-level southerly flow increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within small-scale linear segments, with convection spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight. ..Goss.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low initially forecast to lie over the southeastern Colorado area is expected to move steadily eastward Day 2/Thursday, crossing Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually shifting into/across the Ozarks through 31/12Z. At the surface, a very weak surface low expected over northeastern Texas Thursday morning is expected to shift north-northeastward with time, with some deepening of the low expected through latter stages of the period as it moves into the Illinois/Indiana area. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will sweep across eastern Texas early in the period, across the Lower Mississippi Valley area through the evening, and should lie from Indiana southward across Kentucky and Tennessee, to the mouth of the Mississippi River by the end of the period. ...East Texas to western Mississippi... As the surface cold front shifts eastward through the day, southerly low-level winds within the warm sector will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Weak lapse rates will substantially hinder destabilization, but low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated showers and storms should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving across the eastern half of Texas. As low-level moistening allows storms to gradually become surface-based, potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase. Risk should become maximized through the late afternoon and early evening hours, expanding into/across Louisiana with time. While the meager instability should temper the overall risk, favorably strong low-level and deep-layer shear across the region will exist, with low-level southerly flow increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within small-scale linear segments, with convection spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight. ..Goss.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low initially forecast to lie over the southeastern Colorado area is expected to move steadily eastward Day 2/Thursday, crossing Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually shifting into/across the Ozarks through 31/12Z. At the surface, a very weak surface low expected over northeastern Texas Thursday morning is expected to shift north-northeastward with time, with some deepening of the low expected through latter stages of the period as it moves into the Illinois/Indiana area. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will sweep across eastern Texas early in the period, across the Lower Mississippi Valley area through the evening, and should lie from Indiana southward across Kentucky and Tennessee, to the mouth of the Mississippi River by the end of the period. ...East Texas to western Mississippi... As the surface cold front shifts eastward through the day, southerly low-level winds within the warm sector will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Weak lapse rates will substantially hinder destabilization, but low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated showers and storms should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving across the eastern half of Texas. As low-level moistening allows storms to gradually become surface-based, potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase. Risk should become maximized through the late afternoon and early evening hours, expanding into/across Louisiana with time. While the meager instability should temper the overall risk, favorably strong low-level and deep-layer shear across the region will exist, with low-level southerly flow increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within small-scale linear segments, with convection spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight. ..Goss.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low initially forecast to lie over the southeastern Colorado area is expected to move steadily eastward Day 2/Thursday, crossing Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually shifting into/across the Ozarks through 31/12Z. At the surface, a very weak surface low expected over northeastern Texas Thursday morning is expected to shift north-northeastward with time, with some deepening of the low expected through latter stages of the period as it moves into the Illinois/Indiana area. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will sweep across eastern Texas early in the period, across the Lower Mississippi Valley area through the evening, and should lie from Indiana southward across Kentucky and Tennessee, to the mouth of the Mississippi River by the end of the period. ...East Texas to western Mississippi... As the surface cold front shifts eastward through the day, southerly low-level winds within the warm sector will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Weak lapse rates will substantially hinder destabilization, but low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated showers and storms should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving across the eastern half of Texas. As low-level moistening allows storms to gradually become surface-based, potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase. Risk should become maximized through the late afternoon and early evening hours, expanding into/across Louisiana with time. While the meager instability should temper the overall risk, favorably strong low-level and deep-layer shear across the region will exist, with low-level southerly flow increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within small-scale linear segments, with convection spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight. ..Goss.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low initially forecast to lie over the southeastern Colorado area is expected to move steadily eastward Day 2/Thursday, crossing Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually shifting into/across the Ozarks through 31/12Z. At the surface, a very weak surface low expected over northeastern Texas Thursday morning is expected to shift north-northeastward with time, with some deepening of the low expected through latter stages of the period as it moves into the Illinois/Indiana area. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will sweep across eastern Texas early in the period, across the Lower Mississippi Valley area through the evening, and should lie from Indiana southward across Kentucky and Tennessee, to the mouth of the Mississippi River by the end of the period. ...East Texas to western Mississippi... As the surface cold front shifts eastward through the day, southerly low-level winds within the warm sector will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Weak lapse rates will substantially hinder destabilization, but low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated showers and storms should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving across the eastern half of Texas. As low-level moistening allows storms to gradually become surface-based, potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase. Risk should become maximized through the late afternoon and early evening hours, expanding into/across Louisiana with time. While the meager instability should temper the overall risk, favorably strong low-level and deep-layer shear across the region will exist, with low-level southerly flow increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within small-scale linear segments, with convection spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight. ..Goss.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low initially forecast to lie over the southeastern Colorado area is expected to move steadily eastward Day 2/Thursday, crossing Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually shifting into/across the Ozarks through 31/12Z. At the surface, a very weak surface low expected over northeastern Texas Thursday morning is expected to shift north-northeastward with time, with some deepening of the low expected through latter stages of the period as it moves into the Illinois/Indiana area. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will sweep across eastern Texas early in the period, across the Lower Mississippi Valley area through the evening, and should lie from Indiana southward across Kentucky and Tennessee, to the mouth of the Mississippi River by the end of the period. ...East Texas to western Mississippi... As the surface cold front shifts eastward through the day, southerly low-level winds within the warm sector will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Weak lapse rates will substantially hinder destabilization, but low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated showers and storms should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving across the eastern half of Texas. As low-level moistening allows storms to gradually become surface-based, potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase. Risk should become maximized through the late afternoon and early evening hours, expanding into/across Louisiana with time. While the meager instability should temper the overall risk, favorably strong low-level and deep-layer shear across the region will exist, with low-level southerly flow increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within small-scale linear segments, with convection spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight. ..Goss.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains as well as across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... An upper low over the Southwest will continue to meander east into the southern Plains. While widespread rain is expected to overspread much of the southern Plains, portions of West Texas and far southern NM will likely remain dry while west/southwest winds strengthen through late afternoon. The eastward advection of a dry air mass (currently in place across southern AZ/southwest NM) coupled with some degree of downslope warming/drying will support RH reductions into the low 20s and teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but modestly receptive fuels (ERCs generally below the 80th percentile) should limit fire concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic... Further east, a strong low migrating across the Northeast will induce 15-20 mph westerly winds along the lee of the southern to central Appalachians. Downslope warming will likely support afternoon RH minimums between 20-30%. Elevated conditions appear likely across central to eastern VA and NC, but as with the southern High Plains, fuels are generally unreceptive. However, very fine (1-hour) fuels may see sufficient drying for localized fire weather concerns this afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains as well as across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... An upper low over the Southwest will continue to meander east into the southern Plains. While widespread rain is expected to overspread much of the southern Plains, portions of West Texas and far southern NM will likely remain dry while west/southwest winds strengthen through late afternoon. The eastward advection of a dry air mass (currently in place across southern AZ/southwest NM) coupled with some degree of downslope warming/drying will support RH reductions into the low 20s and teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but modestly receptive fuels (ERCs generally below the 80th percentile) should limit fire concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic... Further east, a strong low migrating across the Northeast will induce 15-20 mph westerly winds along the lee of the southern to central Appalachians. Downslope warming will likely support afternoon RH minimums between 20-30%. Elevated conditions appear likely across central to eastern VA and NC, but as with the southern High Plains, fuels are generally unreceptive. However, very fine (1-hour) fuels may see sufficient drying for localized fire weather concerns this afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains as well as across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... An upper low over the Southwest will continue to meander east into the southern Plains. While widespread rain is expected to overspread much of the southern Plains, portions of West Texas and far southern NM will likely remain dry while west/southwest winds strengthen through late afternoon. The eastward advection of a dry air mass (currently in place across southern AZ/southwest NM) coupled with some degree of downslope warming/drying will support RH reductions into the low 20s and teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but modestly receptive fuels (ERCs generally below the 80th percentile) should limit fire concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic... Further east, a strong low migrating across the Northeast will induce 15-20 mph westerly winds along the lee of the southern to central Appalachians. Downslope warming will likely support afternoon RH minimums between 20-30%. Elevated conditions appear likely across central to eastern VA and NC, but as with the southern High Plains, fuels are generally unreceptive. However, very fine (1-hour) fuels may see sufficient drying for localized fire weather concerns this afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains as well as across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... An upper low over the Southwest will continue to meander east into the southern Plains. While widespread rain is expected to overspread much of the southern Plains, portions of West Texas and far southern NM will likely remain dry while west/southwest winds strengthen through late afternoon. The eastward advection of a dry air mass (currently in place across southern AZ/southwest NM) coupled with some degree of downslope warming/drying will support RH reductions into the low 20s and teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but modestly receptive fuels (ERCs generally below the 80th percentile) should limit fire concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic... Further east, a strong low migrating across the Northeast will induce 15-20 mph westerly winds along the lee of the southern to central Appalachians. Downslope warming will likely support afternoon RH minimums between 20-30%. Elevated conditions appear likely across central to eastern VA and NC, but as with the southern High Plains, fuels are generally unreceptive. However, very fine (1-hour) fuels may see sufficient drying for localized fire weather concerns this afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains as well as across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... An upper low over the Southwest will continue to meander east into the southern Plains. While widespread rain is expected to overspread much of the southern Plains, portions of West Texas and far southern NM will likely remain dry while west/southwest winds strengthen through late afternoon. The eastward advection of a dry air mass (currently in place across southern AZ/southwest NM) coupled with some degree of downslope warming/drying will support RH reductions into the low 20s and teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but modestly receptive fuels (ERCs generally below the 80th percentile) should limit fire concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic... Further east, a strong low migrating across the Northeast will induce 15-20 mph westerly winds along the lee of the southern to central Appalachians. Downslope warming will likely support afternoon RH minimums between 20-30%. Elevated conditions appear likely across central to eastern VA and NC, but as with the southern High Plains, fuels are generally unreceptive. However, very fine (1-hour) fuels may see sufficient drying for localized fire weather concerns this afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains as well as across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... An upper low over the Southwest will continue to meander east into the southern Plains. While widespread rain is expected to overspread much of the southern Plains, portions of West Texas and far southern NM will likely remain dry while west/southwest winds strengthen through late afternoon. The eastward advection of a dry air mass (currently in place across southern AZ/southwest NM) coupled with some degree of downslope warming/drying will support RH reductions into the low 20s and teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but modestly receptive fuels (ERCs generally below the 80th percentile) should limit fire concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic... Further east, a strong low migrating across the Northeast will induce 15-20 mph westerly winds along the lee of the southern to central Appalachians. Downslope warming will likely support afternoon RH minimums between 20-30%. Elevated conditions appear likely across central to eastern VA and NC, but as with the southern High Plains, fuels are generally unreceptive. However, very fine (1-hour) fuels may see sufficient drying for localized fire weather concerns this afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low will drift slowly across the Southwest on Wednesday and start to accelerate east by the end of the period. As this upper low advances east, a low-level jet will strengthen across the southern Plains with a sharpening surface cold front from southeast Oklahoma to central Texas by the end of the period. ...Southern Plains... Richer low-level moisture remains in the Gulf of Mexico early this morning. However, by mid-morning it will start to advance inland as low-level flow strengthens ahead of the mid-level low. This will continue through the day with gradual elevated instability developing from South Texas to North Central Texas. A few elevated thunderstorms may move across Oklahoma and western Arkansas during the afternoon, but these storms should be weak amid weak elevated instability. By around 03Z, the combination of increasing instability (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and increasing isentropic ascent with the strengthening low-level jet should result in widespread thunderstorm development across Central and North Texas between 03 and 06Z. These storms, with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and strong (50+ knots) of effective shear, may have an isolated hail threat. Through time, particularly after 06Z, surface based instability will develop across central and south-central Texas as dewpoints rise into the low to mid 60s. In this narrow corridor of greater instability ahead of the front after 12Z, a few severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado, will be possible. However, the overall threat from this activity is expected to remain muted due to weak (<6 C/km) low-level lapse rates. ...New England... An elongated, 100+ knot mid-level jet will extend from northern Minnesota to southern New England at the beginning of the period and shift east through the period. A surface low will move quickly from eastern Ontario to the Atlantic Ocean off the Maine coast during the morning to early afternoon. As this occurs, a cold front will move quickly east as line of convective showers (perhaps snow squalls given the strong flow), first across New York and then across the rest of the Northeast. Slightly warmer conditions across southern New England may support more mixed-phase with graupel and perhaps some liquid which may result in enough charge separation for some lightning. In addition, the very strong lower tropospheric flow (in excess of 50 knots at 2km) will support windy conditions, perhaps capable of some wind damage across portions of southern New England. ..Bentley/Moore.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low will drift slowly across the Southwest on Wednesday and start to accelerate east by the end of the period. As this upper low advances east, a low-level jet will strengthen across the southern Plains with a sharpening surface cold front from southeast Oklahoma to central Texas by the end of the period. ...Southern Plains... Richer low-level moisture remains in the Gulf of Mexico early this morning. However, by mid-morning it will start to advance inland as low-level flow strengthens ahead of the mid-level low. This will continue through the day with gradual elevated instability developing from South Texas to North Central Texas. A few elevated thunderstorms may move across Oklahoma and western Arkansas during the afternoon, but these storms should be weak amid weak elevated instability. By around 03Z, the combination of increasing instability (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and increasing isentropic ascent with the strengthening low-level jet should result in widespread thunderstorm development across Central and North Texas between 03 and 06Z. These storms, with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and strong (50+ knots) of effective shear, may have an isolated hail threat. Through time, particularly after 06Z, surface based instability will develop across central and south-central Texas as dewpoints rise into the low to mid 60s. In this narrow corridor of greater instability ahead of the front after 12Z, a few severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado, will be possible. However, the overall threat from this activity is expected to remain muted due to weak (<6 C/km) low-level lapse rates. ...New England... An elongated, 100+ knot mid-level jet will extend from northern Minnesota to southern New England at the beginning of the period and shift east through the period. A surface low will move quickly from eastern Ontario to the Atlantic Ocean off the Maine coast during the morning to early afternoon. As this occurs, a cold front will move quickly east as line of convective showers (perhaps snow squalls given the strong flow), first across New York and then across the rest of the Northeast. Slightly warmer conditions across southern New England may support more mixed-phase with graupel and perhaps some liquid which may result in enough charge separation for some lightning. In addition, the very strong lower tropospheric flow (in excess of 50 knots at 2km) will support windy conditions, perhaps capable of some wind damage across portions of southern New England. ..Bentley/Moore.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low will drift slowly across the Southwest on Wednesday and start to accelerate east by the end of the period. As this upper low advances east, a low-level jet will strengthen across the southern Plains with a sharpening surface cold front from southeast Oklahoma to central Texas by the end of the period. ...Southern Plains... Richer low-level moisture remains in the Gulf of Mexico early this morning. However, by mid-morning it will start to advance inland as low-level flow strengthens ahead of the mid-level low. This will continue through the day with gradual elevated instability developing from South Texas to North Central Texas. A few elevated thunderstorms may move across Oklahoma and western Arkansas during the afternoon, but these storms should be weak amid weak elevated instability. By around 03Z, the combination of increasing instability (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and increasing isentropic ascent with the strengthening low-level jet should result in widespread thunderstorm development across Central and North Texas between 03 and 06Z. These storms, with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and strong (50+ knots) of effective shear, may have an isolated hail threat. Through time, particularly after 06Z, surface based instability will develop across central and south-central Texas as dewpoints rise into the low to mid 60s. In this narrow corridor of greater instability ahead of the front after 12Z, a few severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado, will be possible. However, the overall threat from this activity is expected to remain muted due to weak (<6 C/km) low-level lapse rates. ...New England... An elongated, 100+ knot mid-level jet will extend from northern Minnesota to southern New England at the beginning of the period and shift east through the period. A surface low will move quickly from eastern Ontario to the Atlantic Ocean off the Maine coast during the morning to early afternoon. As this occurs, a cold front will move quickly east as line of convective showers (perhaps snow squalls given the strong flow), first across New York and then across the rest of the Northeast. Slightly warmer conditions across southern New England may support more mixed-phase with graupel and perhaps some liquid which may result in enough charge separation for some lightning. In addition, the very strong lower tropospheric flow (in excess of 50 knots at 2km) will support windy conditions, perhaps capable of some wind damage across portions of southern New England. ..Bentley/Moore.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low will drift slowly across the Southwest on Wednesday and start to accelerate east by the end of the period. As this upper low advances east, a low-level jet will strengthen across the southern Plains with a sharpening surface cold front from southeast Oklahoma to central Texas by the end of the period. ...Southern Plains... Richer low-level moisture remains in the Gulf of Mexico early this morning. However, by mid-morning it will start to advance inland as low-level flow strengthens ahead of the mid-level low. This will continue through the day with gradual elevated instability developing from South Texas to North Central Texas. A few elevated thunderstorms may move across Oklahoma and western Arkansas during the afternoon, but these storms should be weak amid weak elevated instability. By around 03Z, the combination of increasing instability (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and increasing isentropic ascent with the strengthening low-level jet should result in widespread thunderstorm development across Central and North Texas between 03 and 06Z. These storms, with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and strong (50+ knots) of effective shear, may have an isolated hail threat. Through time, particularly after 06Z, surface based instability will develop across central and south-central Texas as dewpoints rise into the low to mid 60s. In this narrow corridor of greater instability ahead of the front after 12Z, a few severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado, will be possible. However, the overall threat from this activity is expected to remain muted due to weak (<6 C/km) low-level lapse rates. ...New England... An elongated, 100+ knot mid-level jet will extend from northern Minnesota to southern New England at the beginning of the period and shift east through the period. A surface low will move quickly from eastern Ontario to the Atlantic Ocean off the Maine coast during the morning to early afternoon. As this occurs, a cold front will move quickly east as line of convective showers (perhaps snow squalls given the strong flow), first across New York and then across the rest of the Northeast. Slightly warmer conditions across southern New England may support more mixed-phase with graupel and perhaps some liquid which may result in enough charge separation for some lightning. In addition, the very strong lower tropospheric flow (in excess of 50 knots at 2km) will support windy conditions, perhaps capable of some wind damage across portions of southern New England. ..Bentley/Moore.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low will drift slowly across the Southwest on Wednesday and start to accelerate east by the end of the period. As this upper low advances east, a low-level jet will strengthen across the southern Plains with a sharpening surface cold front from southeast Oklahoma to central Texas by the end of the period. ...Southern Plains... Richer low-level moisture remains in the Gulf of Mexico early this morning. However, by mid-morning it will start to advance inland as low-level flow strengthens ahead of the mid-level low. This will continue through the day with gradual elevated instability developing from South Texas to North Central Texas. A few elevated thunderstorms may move across Oklahoma and western Arkansas during the afternoon, but these storms should be weak amid weak elevated instability. By around 03Z, the combination of increasing instability (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and increasing isentropic ascent with the strengthening low-level jet should result in widespread thunderstorm development across Central and North Texas between 03 and 06Z. These storms, with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and strong (50+ knots) of effective shear, may have an isolated hail threat. Through time, particularly after 06Z, surface based instability will develop across central and south-central Texas as dewpoints rise into the low to mid 60s. In this narrow corridor of greater instability ahead of the front after 12Z, a few severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado, will be possible. However, the overall threat from this activity is expected to remain muted due to weak (<6 C/km) low-level lapse rates. ...New England... An elongated, 100+ knot mid-level jet will extend from northern Minnesota to southern New England at the beginning of the period and shift east through the period. A surface low will move quickly from eastern Ontario to the Atlantic Ocean off the Maine coast during the morning to early afternoon. As this occurs, a cold front will move quickly east as line of convective showers (perhaps snow squalls given the strong flow), first across New York and then across the rest of the Northeast. Slightly warmer conditions across southern New England may support more mixed-phase with graupel and perhaps some liquid which may result in enough charge separation for some lightning. In addition, the very strong lower tropospheric flow (in excess of 50 knots at 2km) will support windy conditions, perhaps capable of some wind damage across portions of southern New England. ..Bentley/Moore.. 01/29/2025 Read more