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A cattle producer in Hope Hull will have to feed hay earlier than normal as drought diminished pasture growth. Forage production has been less than half of normal during the latter part of the growing season. Dry conditions may necessitate that he begins irrigating, which will add to the cost of producing his crops. WSFA (Montgomery, Ala.), Oct 30, 2024

Soybeans in Bucks County were not worth harvesting as conditions have been very dry since the start of July. Soybean and corn yields were less than half of normal. WTXF-TV FOX 29 Philadelphia (Pa.), Oct 28, 2024

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe storms capable of wind gusts are possible today from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into east/northeast Texas. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid-South and ArkLaTex/East Texas... An extensive northeast/southwest-oriented squall line (650 miles long), with considerable trailing stratiform precipitation, extends from the Wabash River/Lower Ohio River southwestward into the middle of Arkansas toward the ArkLaTex and broader parts of northeast Texas at daybreak. This activity squall has been sub-severe in the predawn hours, but some re-intensification is possible into the afternoon as the boundary layer warms ahead of the slow-east/southeastward-moving squall line and effective front. Regionally, stronger flow aloft/deep-layer shear will reside across the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley where destabilization will be rather weak. Stronger instability will exist southwestward across east Texas/ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley (as per 12Z Little Rock AR observed sounding). However, a mid-level subsidence inversion will also tend to exist (sampled by 12Z Shreveport LA observed sounding), with a weakening low-level wind field through the day. As such, only isolated marginally severe wind gusts are expected regionally. Any such severe risk should diminish by around sunset. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe storms capable of wind gusts are possible today from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into east/northeast Texas. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid-South and ArkLaTex/East Texas... An extensive northeast/southwest-oriented squall line (650 miles long), with considerable trailing stratiform precipitation, extends from the Wabash River/Lower Ohio River southwestward into the middle of Arkansas toward the ArkLaTex and broader parts of northeast Texas at daybreak. This activity squall has been sub-severe in the predawn hours, but some re-intensification is possible into the afternoon as the boundary layer warms ahead of the slow-east/southeastward-moving squall line and effective front. Regionally, stronger flow aloft/deep-layer shear will reside across the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley where destabilization will be rather weak. Stronger instability will exist southwestward across east Texas/ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley (as per 12Z Little Rock AR observed sounding). However, a mid-level subsidence inversion will also tend to exist (sampled by 12Z Shreveport LA observed sounding), with a weakening low-level wind field through the day. As such, only isolated marginally severe wind gusts are expected regionally. Any such severe risk should diminish by around sunset. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe storms capable of wind gusts are possible today from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into east/northeast Texas. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid-South and ArkLaTex/East Texas... An extensive northeast/southwest-oriented squall line (650 miles long), with considerable trailing stratiform precipitation, extends from the Wabash River/Lower Ohio River southwestward into the middle of Arkansas toward the ArkLaTex and broader parts of northeast Texas at daybreak. This activity squall has been sub-severe in the predawn hours, but some re-intensification is possible into the afternoon as the boundary layer warms ahead of the slow-east/southeastward-moving squall line and effective front. Regionally, stronger flow aloft/deep-layer shear will reside across the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley where destabilization will be rather weak. Stronger instability will exist southwestward across east Texas/ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley (as per 12Z Little Rock AR observed sounding). However, a mid-level subsidence inversion will also tend to exist (sampled by 12Z Shreveport LA observed sounding), with a weakening low-level wind field through the day. As such, only isolated marginally severe wind gusts are expected regionally. Any such severe risk should diminish by around sunset. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe storms capable of wind gusts are possible today from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into east/northeast Texas. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid-South and ArkLaTex/East Texas... An extensive northeast/southwest-oriented squall line (650 miles long), with considerable trailing stratiform precipitation, extends from the Wabash River/Lower Ohio River southwestward into the middle of Arkansas toward the ArkLaTex and broader parts of northeast Texas at daybreak. This activity squall has been sub-severe in the predawn hours, but some re-intensification is possible into the afternoon as the boundary layer warms ahead of the slow-east/southeastward-moving squall line and effective front. Regionally, stronger flow aloft/deep-layer shear will reside across the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley where destabilization will be rather weak. Stronger instability will exist southwestward across east Texas/ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley (as per 12Z Little Rock AR observed sounding). However, a mid-level subsidence inversion will also tend to exist (sampled by 12Z Shreveport LA observed sounding), with a weakening low-level wind field through the day. As such, only isolated marginally severe wind gusts are expected regionally. Any such severe risk should diminish by around sunset. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe storms capable of wind gusts are possible today from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into east/northeast Texas. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid-South and ArkLaTex/East Texas... An extensive northeast/southwest-oriented squall line (650 miles long), with considerable trailing stratiform precipitation, extends from the Wabash River/Lower Ohio River southwestward into the middle of Arkansas toward the ArkLaTex and broader parts of northeast Texas at daybreak. This activity squall has been sub-severe in the predawn hours, but some re-intensification is possible into the afternoon as the boundary layer warms ahead of the slow-east/southeastward-moving squall line and effective front. Regionally, stronger flow aloft/deep-layer shear will reside across the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley where destabilization will be rather weak. Stronger instability will exist southwestward across east Texas/ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley (as per 12Z Little Rock AR observed sounding). However, a mid-level subsidence inversion will also tend to exist (sampled by 12Z Shreveport LA observed sounding), with a weakening low-level wind field through the day. As such, only isolated marginally severe wind gusts are expected regionally. Any such severe risk should diminish by around sunset. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/31/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Sunday, as the exit region of a broad mid-level jet overspreads the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within this moist airmass Sunday afternoon as instability increases during the day. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, low-end moderate instability and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support severe thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon and evening. The greatest severe potential is expected from north Texas northward into south-central Nebraska, where large hail, severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be possible. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains, as a 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates through the eastern part of the system. Ahead of the trough, pockets of moderate instability are forecast to develop across a moist airmass during the day. Thunderstorms that form in the afternoon across the western part of the moist sector are expected to have potential for large hail and wind damage. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... From Tuesday to Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward across the eastern third of the U.S. Warming surface temperatures ahead of the front should result in scattered thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could be on Tuesday in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley near the entrance region of the mid-level jet. The severe threat could re-develop ahead of the front on Wednesday and Thursday. However, instability is forecast to be weak suggesting that any severe threat should be marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Sunday, as the exit region of a broad mid-level jet overspreads the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within this moist airmass Sunday afternoon as instability increases during the day. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, low-end moderate instability and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support severe thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon and evening. The greatest severe potential is expected from north Texas northward into south-central Nebraska, where large hail, severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be possible. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains, as a 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates through the eastern part of the system. Ahead of the trough, pockets of moderate instability are forecast to develop across a moist airmass during the day. Thunderstorms that form in the afternoon across the western part of the moist sector are expected to have potential for large hail and wind damage. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... From Tuesday to Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward across the eastern third of the U.S. Warming surface temperatures ahead of the front should result in scattered thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could be on Tuesday in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley near the entrance region of the mid-level jet. The severe threat could re-develop ahead of the front on Wednesday and Thursday. However, instability is forecast to be weak suggesting that any severe threat should be marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Sunday, as the exit region of a broad mid-level jet overspreads the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within this moist airmass Sunday afternoon as instability increases during the day. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, low-end moderate instability and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support severe thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon and evening. The greatest severe potential is expected from north Texas northward into south-central Nebraska, where large hail, severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be possible. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains, as a 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates through the eastern part of the system. Ahead of the trough, pockets of moderate instability are forecast to develop across a moist airmass during the day. Thunderstorms that form in the afternoon across the western part of the moist sector are expected to have potential for large hail and wind damage. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... From Tuesday to Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward across the eastern third of the U.S. Warming surface temperatures ahead of the front should result in scattered thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could be on Tuesday in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley near the entrance region of the mid-level jet. The severe threat could re-develop ahead of the front on Wednesday and Thursday. However, instability is forecast to be weak suggesting that any severe threat should be marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Sunday, as the exit region of a broad mid-level jet overspreads the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within this moist airmass Sunday afternoon as instability increases during the day. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, low-end moderate instability and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support severe thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon and evening. The greatest severe potential is expected from north Texas northward into south-central Nebraska, where large hail, severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be possible. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains, as a 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates through the eastern part of the system. Ahead of the trough, pockets of moderate instability are forecast to develop across a moist airmass during the day. Thunderstorms that form in the afternoon across the western part of the moist sector are expected to have potential for large hail and wind damage. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... From Tuesday to Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward across the eastern third of the U.S. Warming surface temperatures ahead of the front should result in scattered thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could be on Tuesday in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley near the entrance region of the mid-level jet. The severe threat could re-develop ahead of the front on Wednesday and Thursday. However, instability is forecast to be weak suggesting that any severe threat should be marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Sunday, as the exit region of a broad mid-level jet overspreads the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within this moist airmass Sunday afternoon as instability increases during the day. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, low-end moderate instability and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support severe thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon and evening. The greatest severe potential is expected from north Texas northward into south-central Nebraska, where large hail, severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be possible. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains, as a 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates through the eastern part of the system. Ahead of the trough, pockets of moderate instability are forecast to develop across a moist airmass during the day. Thunderstorms that form in the afternoon across the western part of the moist sector are expected to have potential for large hail and wind damage. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... From Tuesday to Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward across the eastern third of the U.S. Warming surface temperatures ahead of the front should result in scattered thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could be on Tuesday in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley near the entrance region of the mid-level jet. The severe threat could re-develop ahead of the front on Wednesday and Thursday. However, instability is forecast to be weak suggesting that any severe threat should be marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Sunday, as the exit region of a broad mid-level jet overspreads the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within this moist airmass Sunday afternoon as instability increases during the day. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, low-end moderate instability and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support severe thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon and evening. The greatest severe potential is expected from north Texas northward into south-central Nebraska, where large hail, severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be possible. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains, as a 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates through the eastern part of the system. Ahead of the trough, pockets of moderate instability are forecast to develop across a moist airmass during the day. Thunderstorms that form in the afternoon across the western part of the moist sector are expected to have potential for large hail and wind damage. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... From Tuesday to Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward across the eastern third of the U.S. Warming surface temperatures ahead of the front should result in scattered thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could be on Tuesday in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley near the entrance region of the mid-level jet. The severe threat could re-develop ahead of the front on Wednesday and Thursday. However, instability is forecast to be weak suggesting that any severe threat should be marginal. Read more

WW 0697 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 697 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE HRO TO 25 S TBN TO 15 SE VIH TO 25 E VIH. ..LEITMAN..10/31/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 697 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC067-153-161-215-229-310840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DOUGLAS OZARK PHELPS TEXAS WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0697 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 697 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE HRO TO 25 S TBN TO 15 SE VIH TO 25 E VIH. ..LEITMAN..10/31/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 697 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC067-153-161-215-229-310840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DOUGLAS OZARK PHELPS TEXAS WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 697 SEVERE TSTM MO 310220Z - 310900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 697 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 920 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Missouri * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 920 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of intense thunderstorms over western Missouri will continue to track eastward through the overnight period. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary concern, although an isolated tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east northeast of Kirksville MO to 35 miles southeast of Monett MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 695...WW 696... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and wind damage, are expected to develop across parts of the southern High Plains on Saturday. A marginal severe threat will also be possible outside of the Slight Risk area in parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern and Central Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains from the Intermountain West eastward into the Great Plains. A moist airmass will be in place across the southern and central Plains, where scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the day. The strongest instability is forecast across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas by mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop in this area during the late afternoon and evening could be associated with a severe threat. NAM forecast soundings across west Texas by 00Z/Sunday suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 40 to 50 knot range as a mid-level jet of around 50 knots moves into the southern High Plains. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates in West Texas are forecast to be from 7 to 7.5 C/km by early Saturday evening. This should be favorable for supercells associated with large hail and severe wind gusts. The models currently suggest that a severe threat could be of rather long duration, with one round of storms developing across west Texas early in the day, and a second round of storms developing in the evening or overnight period. As these clusters move eastward into the Low Rolling Plains of west-central Texas and into western and central Oklahoma, the threat should become more isolated. Further north, from the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into western Kansas, moisture and instability are gradually forecast to increase Saturday night. Weak instability and moderate deep-layer shear, evident on forecast soundings, could support a marginal threat for hail and severe wind gusts with the greatest threat toward the end of the period. ..Broyles.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and wind damage, are expected to develop across parts of the southern High Plains on Saturday. A marginal severe threat will also be possible outside of the Slight Risk area in parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern and Central Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains from the Intermountain West eastward into the Great Plains. A moist airmass will be in place across the southern and central Plains, where scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the day. The strongest instability is forecast across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas by mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop in this area during the late afternoon and evening could be associated with a severe threat. NAM forecast soundings across west Texas by 00Z/Sunday suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 40 to 50 knot range as a mid-level jet of around 50 knots moves into the southern High Plains. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates in West Texas are forecast to be from 7 to 7.5 C/km by early Saturday evening. This should be favorable for supercells associated with large hail and severe wind gusts. The models currently suggest that a severe threat could be of rather long duration, with one round of storms developing across west Texas early in the day, and a second round of storms developing in the evening or overnight period. As these clusters move eastward into the Low Rolling Plains of west-central Texas and into western and central Oklahoma, the threat should become more isolated. Further north, from the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into western Kansas, moisture and instability are gradually forecast to increase Saturday night. Weak instability and moderate deep-layer shear, evident on forecast soundings, could support a marginal threat for hail and severe wind gusts with the greatest threat toward the end of the period. ..Broyles.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and wind damage, are expected to develop across parts of the southern High Plains on Saturday. A marginal severe threat will also be possible outside of the Slight Risk area in parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern and Central Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains from the Intermountain West eastward into the Great Plains. A moist airmass will be in place across the southern and central Plains, where scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the day. The strongest instability is forecast across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas by mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop in this area during the late afternoon and evening could be associated with a severe threat. NAM forecast soundings across west Texas by 00Z/Sunday suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 40 to 50 knot range as a mid-level jet of around 50 knots moves into the southern High Plains. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates in West Texas are forecast to be from 7 to 7.5 C/km by early Saturday evening. This should be favorable for supercells associated with large hail and severe wind gusts. The models currently suggest that a severe threat could be of rather long duration, with one round of storms developing across west Texas early in the day, and a second round of storms developing in the evening or overnight period. As these clusters move eastward into the Low Rolling Plains of west-central Texas and into western and central Oklahoma, the threat should become more isolated. Further north, from the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into western Kansas, moisture and instability are gradually forecast to increase Saturday night. Weak instability and moderate deep-layer shear, evident on forecast soundings, could support a marginal threat for hail and severe wind gusts with the greatest threat toward the end of the period. ..Broyles.. 10/31/2024 Read more