Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement into Day 6, with some differences emerging at that point -- and continuing through the end of the period -- with respect to progression of small-scale, short-wave troughing moving through the prevailing westerlies aloft. During the days 4-5 time frame (Sunday and Monday), upper short-wave troughing is forecast to move across southern Canada and the Great Lakes region, and eventually the Ottawa and St. Lawrence Valleys and into the Canadian Maritimes. As this occurs, and an associated surface low likewise shifts eastward, a cold front will progress eastward across the Northeast, while sagging southward across the central Plains/Midwest. The front will eventually decelerate into the southern Plains and Southeast states by Day 6 (Tuesday). Through Day 5, severe weather is not expected. Day 6, potential for elevated convection -- north of the aforementioned baroclinic zone -- will become possible, modulated by the passage of disturbances embedded in the upper westerlies. While models differ on timing and intensity of these disturbances, it is conceivable that marginal hail potential could occur at some point through latter stages of the period. At this time, risk appears low, and too uncertain to highlight given the subtle/weak nature of the features embedded in the background low-amplitude flow field. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement into Day 6, with some differences emerging at that point -- and continuing through the end of the period -- with respect to progression of small-scale, short-wave troughing moving through the prevailing westerlies aloft. During the days 4-5 time frame (Sunday and Monday), upper short-wave troughing is forecast to move across southern Canada and the Great Lakes region, and eventually the Ottawa and St. Lawrence Valleys and into the Canadian Maritimes. As this occurs, and an associated surface low likewise shifts eastward, a cold front will progress eastward across the Northeast, while sagging southward across the central Plains/Midwest. The front will eventually decelerate into the southern Plains and Southeast states by Day 6 (Tuesday). Through Day 5, severe weather is not expected. Day 6, potential for elevated convection -- north of the aforementioned baroclinic zone -- will become possible, modulated by the passage of disturbances embedded in the upper westerlies. While models differ on timing and intensity of these disturbances, it is conceivable that marginal hail potential could occur at some point through latter stages of the period. At this time, risk appears low, and too uncertain to highlight given the subtle/weak nature of the features embedded in the background low-amplitude flow field. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement into Day 6, with some differences emerging at that point -- and continuing through the end of the period -- with respect to progression of small-scale, short-wave troughing moving through the prevailing westerlies aloft. During the days 4-5 time frame (Sunday and Monday), upper short-wave troughing is forecast to move across southern Canada and the Great Lakes region, and eventually the Ottawa and St. Lawrence Valleys and into the Canadian Maritimes. As this occurs, and an associated surface low likewise shifts eastward, a cold front will progress eastward across the Northeast, while sagging southward across the central Plains/Midwest. The front will eventually decelerate into the southern Plains and Southeast states by Day 6 (Tuesday). Through Day 5, severe weather is not expected. Day 6, potential for elevated convection -- north of the aforementioned baroclinic zone -- will become possible, modulated by the passage of disturbances embedded in the upper westerlies. While models differ on timing and intensity of these disturbances, it is conceivable that marginal hail potential could occur at some point through latter stages of the period. At this time, risk appears low, and too uncertain to highlight given the subtle/weak nature of the features embedded in the background low-amplitude flow field. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement into Day 6, with some differences emerging at that point -- and continuing through the end of the period -- with respect to progression of small-scale, short-wave troughing moving through the prevailing westerlies aloft. During the days 4-5 time frame (Sunday and Monday), upper short-wave troughing is forecast to move across southern Canada and the Great Lakes region, and eventually the Ottawa and St. Lawrence Valleys and into the Canadian Maritimes. As this occurs, and an associated surface low likewise shifts eastward, a cold front will progress eastward across the Northeast, while sagging southward across the central Plains/Midwest. The front will eventually decelerate into the southern Plains and Southeast states by Day 6 (Tuesday). Through Day 5, severe weather is not expected. Day 6, potential for elevated convection -- north of the aforementioned baroclinic zone -- will become possible, modulated by the passage of disturbances embedded in the upper westerlies. While models differ on timing and intensity of these disturbances, it is conceivable that marginal hail potential could occur at some point through latter stages of the period. At this time, risk appears low, and too uncertain to highlight given the subtle/weak nature of the features embedded in the background low-amplitude flow field. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement into Day 6, with some differences emerging at that point -- and continuing through the end of the period -- with respect to progression of small-scale, short-wave troughing moving through the prevailing westerlies aloft. During the days 4-5 time frame (Sunday and Monday), upper short-wave troughing is forecast to move across southern Canada and the Great Lakes region, and eventually the Ottawa and St. Lawrence Valleys and into the Canadian Maritimes. As this occurs, and an associated surface low likewise shifts eastward, a cold front will progress eastward across the Northeast, while sagging southward across the central Plains/Midwest. The front will eventually decelerate into the southern Plains and Southeast states by Day 6 (Tuesday). Through Day 5, severe weather is not expected. Day 6, potential for elevated convection -- north of the aforementioned baroclinic zone -- will become possible, modulated by the passage of disturbances embedded in the upper westerlies. While models differ on timing and intensity of these disturbances, it is conceivable that marginal hail potential could occur at some point through latter stages of the period. At this time, risk appears low, and too uncertain to highlight given the subtle/weak nature of the features embedded in the background low-amplitude flow field. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... As an upper short-wave trough shifts out of the eastern U.S. early Saturday, flow aloft will trend toward a low-amplitude, weakly cyclonic configuration in a broad sense, through Sunday morning. At the surface, frontolysis will occur over Florida as the remnant baroclinic zone dissipates, while high pressure prevails across the eastern states in its wake. In the West, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Intermountain Region later in the day and overnight, ahead of an upper system forecast to linger near coastal southwestern Canada. Showers, and possibly a couple of lightning flashes, will be possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain region in response to the aforementioned cold frontal advance, and associated upper system. Elsewhere, a shower or two -- and possibly a lightning flash -- may occur over coastal portions of eastern Florida near the decaying front. Overall however, lightning potential remains too low CONUS-wide to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... As an upper short-wave trough shifts out of the eastern U.S. early Saturday, flow aloft will trend toward a low-amplitude, weakly cyclonic configuration in a broad sense, through Sunday morning. At the surface, frontolysis will occur over Florida as the remnant baroclinic zone dissipates, while high pressure prevails across the eastern states in its wake. In the West, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Intermountain Region later in the day and overnight, ahead of an upper system forecast to linger near coastal southwestern Canada. Showers, and possibly a couple of lightning flashes, will be possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain region in response to the aforementioned cold frontal advance, and associated upper system. Elsewhere, a shower or two -- and possibly a lightning flash -- may occur over coastal portions of eastern Florida near the decaying front. Overall however, lightning potential remains too low CONUS-wide to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... As an upper short-wave trough shifts out of the eastern U.S. early Saturday, flow aloft will trend toward a low-amplitude, weakly cyclonic configuration in a broad sense, through Sunday morning. At the surface, frontolysis will occur over Florida as the remnant baroclinic zone dissipates, while high pressure prevails across the eastern states in its wake. In the West, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Intermountain Region later in the day and overnight, ahead of an upper system forecast to linger near coastal southwestern Canada. Showers, and possibly a couple of lightning flashes, will be possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain region in response to the aforementioned cold frontal advance, and associated upper system. Elsewhere, a shower or two -- and possibly a lightning flash -- may occur over coastal portions of eastern Florida near the decaying front. Overall however, lightning potential remains too low CONUS-wide to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... As an upper short-wave trough shifts out of the eastern U.S. early Saturday, flow aloft will trend toward a low-amplitude, weakly cyclonic configuration in a broad sense, through Sunday morning. At the surface, frontolysis will occur over Florida as the remnant baroclinic zone dissipates, while high pressure prevails across the eastern states in its wake. In the West, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Intermountain Region later in the day and overnight, ahead of an upper system forecast to linger near coastal southwestern Canada. Showers, and possibly a couple of lightning flashes, will be possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain region in response to the aforementioned cold frontal advance, and associated upper system. Elsewhere, a shower or two -- and possibly a lightning flash -- may occur over coastal portions of eastern Florida near the decaying front. Overall however, lightning potential remains too low CONUS-wide to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... As an upper short-wave trough shifts out of the eastern U.S. early Saturday, flow aloft will trend toward a low-amplitude, weakly cyclonic configuration in a broad sense, through Sunday morning. At the surface, frontolysis will occur over Florida as the remnant baroclinic zone dissipates, while high pressure prevails across the eastern states in its wake. In the West, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Intermountain Region later in the day and overnight, ahead of an upper system forecast to linger near coastal southwestern Canada. Showers, and possibly a couple of lightning flashes, will be possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain region in response to the aforementioned cold frontal advance, and associated upper system. Elsewhere, a shower or two -- and possibly a lightning flash -- may occur over coastal portions of eastern Florida near the decaying front. Overall however, lightning potential remains too low CONUS-wide to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... As an upper short-wave trough shifts out of the eastern U.S. early Saturday, flow aloft will trend toward a low-amplitude, weakly cyclonic configuration in a broad sense, through Sunday morning. At the surface, frontolysis will occur over Florida as the remnant baroclinic zone dissipates, while high pressure prevails across the eastern states in its wake. In the West, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Intermountain Region later in the day and overnight, ahead of an upper system forecast to linger near coastal southwestern Canada. Showers, and possibly a couple of lightning flashes, will be possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain region in response to the aforementioned cold frontal advance, and associated upper system. Elsewhere, a shower or two -- and possibly a lightning flash -- may occur over coastal portions of eastern Florida near the decaying front. Overall however, lightning potential remains too low CONUS-wide to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... As an upper short-wave trough shifts out of the eastern U.S. early Saturday, flow aloft will trend toward a low-amplitude, weakly cyclonic configuration in a broad sense, through Sunday morning. At the surface, frontolysis will occur over Florida as the remnant baroclinic zone dissipates, while high pressure prevails across the eastern states in its wake. In the West, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Intermountain Region later in the day and overnight, ahead of an upper system forecast to linger near coastal southwestern Canada. Showers, and possibly a couple of lightning flashes, will be possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain region in response to the aforementioned cold frontal advance, and associated upper system. Elsewhere, a shower or two -- and possibly a lightning flash -- may occur over coastal portions of eastern Florida near the decaying front. Overall however, lightning potential remains too low CONUS-wide to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... As an upper short-wave trough shifts out of the eastern U.S. early Saturday, flow aloft will trend toward a low-amplitude, weakly cyclonic configuration in a broad sense, through Sunday morning. At the surface, frontolysis will occur over Florida as the remnant baroclinic zone dissipates, while high pressure prevails across the eastern states in its wake. In the West, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Intermountain Region later in the day and overnight, ahead of an upper system forecast to linger near coastal southwestern Canada. Showers, and possibly a couple of lightning flashes, will be possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain region in response to the aforementioned cold frontal advance, and associated upper system. Elsewhere, a shower or two -- and possibly a lightning flash -- may occur over coastal portions of eastern Florida near the decaying front. Overall however, lightning potential remains too low CONUS-wide to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper low moving across the central U.S. early Friday is progged to devolve into an open wave, which will move quickly across the eastern half of the U.S. with time. By the end of the period, this feature will likely have reached the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a weak low will move across the Midwest and central Appalachians early in the period, and then should redevelop off the New England coast after sunset. A trailing cold front will cross the Southeast and Atlantic Coast states with time, moving offshore overnight and trailing only across the Florida Peninsula through the end of the period. ...Mouth of the Mississippi eastward to southwestern Georgia... Showers -- and possibly a few thunderstorms -- should be ongoing Friday morning, largely elevated above a weakly stable boundary layer. Weak heating through the morning and into early afternoon may support meager, nearly surface-based CAPE to gradually evolve. Given favorable background shear across the warm sector, a few stronger updrafts cannot be ruled out. Though the lack of more substantial instability should substantially hinder potential for severe weather, a few stronger gusts and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The risk should peak from late morning through late afternoon, diminishing into the evening as the front -- and associated convective band -- advance eastward across Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper low moving across the central U.S. early Friday is progged to devolve into an open wave, which will move quickly across the eastern half of the U.S. with time. By the end of the period, this feature will likely have reached the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a weak low will move across the Midwest and central Appalachians early in the period, and then should redevelop off the New England coast after sunset. A trailing cold front will cross the Southeast and Atlantic Coast states with time, moving offshore overnight and trailing only across the Florida Peninsula through the end of the period. ...Mouth of the Mississippi eastward to southwestern Georgia... Showers -- and possibly a few thunderstorms -- should be ongoing Friday morning, largely elevated above a weakly stable boundary layer. Weak heating through the morning and into early afternoon may support meager, nearly surface-based CAPE to gradually evolve. Given favorable background shear across the warm sector, a few stronger updrafts cannot be ruled out. Though the lack of more substantial instability should substantially hinder potential for severe weather, a few stronger gusts and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The risk should peak from late morning through late afternoon, diminishing into the evening as the front -- and associated convective band -- advance eastward across Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper low moving across the central U.S. early Friday is progged to devolve into an open wave, which will move quickly across the eastern half of the U.S. with time. By the end of the period, this feature will likely have reached the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a weak low will move across the Midwest and central Appalachians early in the period, and then should redevelop off the New England coast after sunset. A trailing cold front will cross the Southeast and Atlantic Coast states with time, moving offshore overnight and trailing only across the Florida Peninsula through the end of the period. ...Mouth of the Mississippi eastward to southwestern Georgia... Showers -- and possibly a few thunderstorms -- should be ongoing Friday morning, largely elevated above a weakly stable boundary layer. Weak heating through the morning and into early afternoon may support meager, nearly surface-based CAPE to gradually evolve. Given favorable background shear across the warm sector, a few stronger updrafts cannot be ruled out. Though the lack of more substantial instability should substantially hinder potential for severe weather, a few stronger gusts and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The risk should peak from late morning through late afternoon, diminishing into the evening as the front -- and associated convective band -- advance eastward across Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper low moving across the central U.S. early Friday is progged to devolve into an open wave, which will move quickly across the eastern half of the U.S. with time. By the end of the period, this feature will likely have reached the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a weak low will move across the Midwest and central Appalachians early in the period, and then should redevelop off the New England coast after sunset. A trailing cold front will cross the Southeast and Atlantic Coast states with time, moving offshore overnight and trailing only across the Florida Peninsula through the end of the period. ...Mouth of the Mississippi eastward to southwestern Georgia... Showers -- and possibly a few thunderstorms -- should be ongoing Friday morning, largely elevated above a weakly stable boundary layer. Weak heating through the morning and into early afternoon may support meager, nearly surface-based CAPE to gradually evolve. Given favorable background shear across the warm sector, a few stronger updrafts cannot be ruled out. Though the lack of more substantial instability should substantially hinder potential for severe weather, a few stronger gusts and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The risk should peak from late morning through late afternoon, diminishing into the evening as the front -- and associated convective band -- advance eastward across Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper low moving across the central U.S. early Friday is progged to devolve into an open wave, which will move quickly across the eastern half of the U.S. with time. By the end of the period, this feature will likely have reached the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a weak low will move across the Midwest and central Appalachians early in the period, and then should redevelop off the New England coast after sunset. A trailing cold front will cross the Southeast and Atlantic Coast states with time, moving offshore overnight and trailing only across the Florida Peninsula through the end of the period. ...Mouth of the Mississippi eastward to southwestern Georgia... Showers -- and possibly a few thunderstorms -- should be ongoing Friday morning, largely elevated above a weakly stable boundary layer. Weak heating through the morning and into early afternoon may support meager, nearly surface-based CAPE to gradually evolve. Given favorable background shear across the warm sector, a few stronger updrafts cannot be ruled out. Though the lack of more substantial instability should substantially hinder potential for severe weather, a few stronger gusts and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The risk should peak from late morning through late afternoon, diminishing into the evening as the front -- and associated convective band -- advance eastward across Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper low moving across the central U.S. early Friday is progged to devolve into an open wave, which will move quickly across the eastern half of the U.S. with time. By the end of the period, this feature will likely have reached the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a weak low will move across the Midwest and central Appalachians early in the period, and then should redevelop off the New England coast after sunset. A trailing cold front will cross the Southeast and Atlantic Coast states with time, moving offshore overnight and trailing only across the Florida Peninsula through the end of the period. ...Mouth of the Mississippi eastward to southwestern Georgia... Showers -- and possibly a few thunderstorms -- should be ongoing Friday morning, largely elevated above a weakly stable boundary layer. Weak heating through the morning and into early afternoon may support meager, nearly surface-based CAPE to gradually evolve. Given favorable background shear across the warm sector, a few stronger updrafts cannot be ruled out. Though the lack of more substantial instability should substantially hinder potential for severe weather, a few stronger gusts and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The risk should peak from late morning through late afternoon, diminishing into the evening as the front -- and associated convective band -- advance eastward across Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper low moving across the central U.S. early Friday is progged to devolve into an open wave, which will move quickly across the eastern half of the U.S. with time. By the end of the period, this feature will likely have reached the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a weak low will move across the Midwest and central Appalachians early in the period, and then should redevelop off the New England coast after sunset. A trailing cold front will cross the Southeast and Atlantic Coast states with time, moving offshore overnight and trailing only across the Florida Peninsula through the end of the period. ...Mouth of the Mississippi eastward to southwestern Georgia... Showers -- and possibly a few thunderstorms -- should be ongoing Friday morning, largely elevated above a weakly stable boundary layer. Weak heating through the morning and into early afternoon may support meager, nearly surface-based CAPE to gradually evolve. Given favorable background shear across the warm sector, a few stronger updrafts cannot be ruled out. Though the lack of more substantial instability should substantially hinder potential for severe weather, a few stronger gusts and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The risk should peak from late morning through late afternoon, diminishing into the evening as the front -- and associated convective band -- advance eastward across Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more