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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... An upper low/trough from the Mid-MS Valley to the southern Plains will shift east to the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast ahead of the trough. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the region through early Saturday. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from the TN Valley toward far southeast LA. While vertical shear will be quite favorable for organized convection, poor lapse rates and a relatively cool/capped boundary-layer will limit destabilization. Where deeper boundary-layer moisture is evident closer to the coast, some potential for an isolated strong storm or two may evolve during the late morning into the afternoon from near the mouth of the MS to far southwest GA. Gusty winds will be the main hazard with any stronger storm that can develop. However, very near the coast, if any weak surface-based instability can develop, favorable low-level shear could result in a tornado. Overall, severe potential appears to be quite limited by poor thermodynamics. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Isolated shallow convection may develop within the colder core of the upper low during the afternoon/early evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, contributing to weak MUCAPE. Forecast soundings indicate somewhat dry midlevels, though some moistening may occur and low-topped convection could produce a few lightning strikes or even small, sub-severe hail for a few hours. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... An upper low/trough from the Mid-MS Valley to the southern Plains will shift east to the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast ahead of the trough. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the region through early Saturday. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from the TN Valley toward far southeast LA. While vertical shear will be quite favorable for organized convection, poor lapse rates and a relatively cool/capped boundary-layer will limit destabilization. Where deeper boundary-layer moisture is evident closer to the coast, some potential for an isolated strong storm or two may evolve during the late morning into the afternoon from near the mouth of the MS to far southwest GA. Gusty winds will be the main hazard with any stronger storm that can develop. However, very near the coast, if any weak surface-based instability can develop, favorable low-level shear could result in a tornado. Overall, severe potential appears to be quite limited by poor thermodynamics. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Isolated shallow convection may develop within the colder core of the upper low during the afternoon/early evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, contributing to weak MUCAPE. Forecast soundings indicate somewhat dry midlevels, though some moistening may occur and low-topped convection could produce a few lightning strikes or even small, sub-severe hail for a few hours. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... An upper low/trough from the Mid-MS Valley to the southern Plains will shift east to the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast ahead of the trough. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the region through early Saturday. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from the TN Valley toward far southeast LA. While vertical shear will be quite favorable for organized convection, poor lapse rates and a relatively cool/capped boundary-layer will limit destabilization. Where deeper boundary-layer moisture is evident closer to the coast, some potential for an isolated strong storm or two may evolve during the late morning into the afternoon from near the mouth of the MS to far southwest GA. Gusty winds will be the main hazard with any stronger storm that can develop. However, very near the coast, if any weak surface-based instability can develop, favorable low-level shear could result in a tornado. Overall, severe potential appears to be quite limited by poor thermodynamics. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Isolated shallow convection may develop within the colder core of the upper low during the afternoon/early evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, contributing to weak MUCAPE. Forecast soundings indicate somewhat dry midlevels, though some moistening may occur and low-topped convection could produce a few lightning strikes or even small, sub-severe hail for a few hours. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East-central TX into the lower MS Valley... A large mid to upper-level low centered near the CO/KS/OK/TX border region will migrate eastward through tonight before reaching the lower MO Valley early Friday morning. A belt of 100+ kt 500-mb flow will move from southwest TX northeastward into eastern OK/north TX by early evening before overspreading the Ark-La-Miss and lower OH Valley. The strongest upper forcing for ascent will shift northeastward from the southern Great Plains into the Ozarks and lower OH Valley. Coincidentally, a weak surface low will move from northeast TX towards the IL vicinity late tonight. Surface analysis this morning indicates a warm frontal zone draped over northeastern TX and central LA. Model guidance indicates this feature will advance into parts of the lower MS Valley/Mid South later this afternoon/evening. Considerable cloudiness today will limit overall destabilization in combination with relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates (reference 12 UTC Fort Worth/Del Rio, TX and Shreveport, LA raobs). However, a plume of modified Gulf moisture featuring dewpoints ranging from near 70 to the mid 60s, extends from Deep South TX northward into eastern TX ahead of the cold front and south of the northward advancing warm frontal zone. Uncertainty for severe today into tonight is related to overall weak instability and storm development immediately ahead of the front. It seems plausible storms will gradually intensify through the morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs which would support a potential risk for organized line segments/supercells. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for a couple of tornadoes appear to be the primary threats with the stronger storms as this potential severe activity shifts east in tandem with a strong LLJ. Weaker instability with east extent into the lower MS Valley this evening/tonight will likely lead to a lessening severe threat with time. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/30/2025 Read more