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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk across the Southeast was removed with this update. Storms have largely been sub-severe and disorganized, as low-level flow remains weak. In addition, thunder chances were removed from the Pacific Northwest. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent, and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability. Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be considered with the next scheduled update (20Z). ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk across the Southeast was removed with this update. Storms have largely been sub-severe and disorganized, as low-level flow remains weak. In addition, thunder chances were removed from the Pacific Northwest. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent, and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability. Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be considered with the next scheduled update (20Z). ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk across the Southeast was removed with this update. Storms have largely been sub-severe and disorganized, as low-level flow remains weak. In addition, thunder chances were removed from the Pacific Northwest. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent, and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability. Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be considered with the next scheduled update (20Z). ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk across the Southeast was removed with this update. Storms have largely been sub-severe and disorganized, as low-level flow remains weak. In addition, thunder chances were removed from the Pacific Northwest. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent, and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability. Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be considered with the next scheduled update (20Z). ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk across the Southeast was removed with this update. Storms have largely been sub-severe and disorganized, as low-level flow remains weak. In addition, thunder chances were removed from the Pacific Northwest. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent, and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability. Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be considered with the next scheduled update (20Z). ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low. Read more

Rainfall has been scarce in New Jersey for much of the year. At present, farmers need moisture so they can plant cover crops, winter wheat and other crops. The crops most affected by the drought were corn, soybeans and cranberries. The berries require a lot of water, but crop losses ranged from 30% to 80%. KYW-AM 1060 Philadelphia (Pa.), Oct 31, 2024

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE VICINITY SOUTH TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms -- along with potential for locally strong/severe storms capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts -- are expected Saturday across portions of the central and southern Plains, focused on the southern High Plains area of western Texas. ...Synopsis... Continued amplification of the large-scale pattern aloft is expected Saturday, as the deepening trough progresses eastward across the West. At the surface, an attendant cold front will continue crossing the Intermountain region, emerging into the High Plains overnight. ...Southern High Plains to western Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central Texas... Substantial low-level theta-e advection is forecast to continue across the central and southern Plains Saturday, as the upper trough advances and mid-level height falls ahead of the trough support a broad area of enhanced low-level southerlies. The southerlies through the lower troposphere, beneath increasing mid-level southwesterlies ahead of the upper system, will result in a broad region where deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms. In conjunction with daytime heating of the moistening airmass, destabilization across eastern New Mexico and Texas will occur, with 500 to locally 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Though low-level foci for ascent will be subtle, ongoing/locally robust convection early in the period should persist -- and perhaps expand in coverage through the day, and then continue through the evening and into the overnight hours. Primary risks with the stronger storms will be hail and locally damaging wind gusts. While the overall area where the background environment will be sufficient to support some severe risk will be rather broad, at this time is appears that the greatest CAPE/shear combination will reside over western portions of Texas, from the Panhandle south to the Permian Basin. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE VICINITY SOUTH TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms -- along with potential for locally strong/severe storms capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts -- are expected Saturday across portions of the central and southern Plains, focused on the southern High Plains area of western Texas. ...Synopsis... Continued amplification of the large-scale pattern aloft is expected Saturday, as the deepening trough progresses eastward across the West. At the surface, an attendant cold front will continue crossing the Intermountain region, emerging into the High Plains overnight. ...Southern High Plains to western Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central Texas... Substantial low-level theta-e advection is forecast to continue across the central and southern Plains Saturday, as the upper trough advances and mid-level height falls ahead of the trough support a broad area of enhanced low-level southerlies. The southerlies through the lower troposphere, beneath increasing mid-level southwesterlies ahead of the upper system, will result in a broad region where deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms. In conjunction with daytime heating of the moistening airmass, destabilization across eastern New Mexico and Texas will occur, with 500 to locally 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Though low-level foci for ascent will be subtle, ongoing/locally robust convection early in the period should persist -- and perhaps expand in coverage through the day, and then continue through the evening and into the overnight hours. Primary risks with the stronger storms will be hail and locally damaging wind gusts. While the overall area where the background environment will be sufficient to support some severe risk will be rather broad, at this time is appears that the greatest CAPE/shear combination will reside over western portions of Texas, from the Panhandle south to the Permian Basin. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE VICINITY SOUTH TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms -- along with potential for locally strong/severe storms capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts -- are expected Saturday across portions of the central and southern Plains, focused on the southern High Plains area of western Texas. ...Synopsis... Continued amplification of the large-scale pattern aloft is expected Saturday, as the deepening trough progresses eastward across the West. At the surface, an attendant cold front will continue crossing the Intermountain region, emerging into the High Plains overnight. ...Southern High Plains to western Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central Texas... Substantial low-level theta-e advection is forecast to continue across the central and southern Plains Saturday, as the upper trough advances and mid-level height falls ahead of the trough support a broad area of enhanced low-level southerlies. The southerlies through the lower troposphere, beneath increasing mid-level southwesterlies ahead of the upper system, will result in a broad region where deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms. In conjunction with daytime heating of the moistening airmass, destabilization across eastern New Mexico and Texas will occur, with 500 to locally 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Though low-level foci for ascent will be subtle, ongoing/locally robust convection early in the period should persist -- and perhaps expand in coverage through the day, and then continue through the evening and into the overnight hours. Primary risks with the stronger storms will be hail and locally damaging wind gusts. While the overall area where the background environment will be sufficient to support some severe risk will be rather broad, at this time is appears that the greatest CAPE/shear combination will reside over western portions of Texas, from the Panhandle south to the Permian Basin. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE VICINITY SOUTH TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms -- along with potential for locally strong/severe storms capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts -- are expected Saturday across portions of the central and southern Plains, focused on the southern High Plains area of western Texas. ...Synopsis... Continued amplification of the large-scale pattern aloft is expected Saturday, as the deepening trough progresses eastward across the West. At the surface, an attendant cold front will continue crossing the Intermountain region, emerging into the High Plains overnight. ...Southern High Plains to western Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central Texas... Substantial low-level theta-e advection is forecast to continue across the central and southern Plains Saturday, as the upper trough advances and mid-level height falls ahead of the trough support a broad area of enhanced low-level southerlies. The southerlies through the lower troposphere, beneath increasing mid-level southwesterlies ahead of the upper system, will result in a broad region where deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms. In conjunction with daytime heating of the moistening airmass, destabilization across eastern New Mexico and Texas will occur, with 500 to locally 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Though low-level foci for ascent will be subtle, ongoing/locally robust convection early in the period should persist -- and perhaps expand in coverage through the day, and then continue through the evening and into the overnight hours. Primary risks with the stronger storms will be hail and locally damaging wind gusts. While the overall area where the background environment will be sufficient to support some severe risk will be rather broad, at this time is appears that the greatest CAPE/shear combination will reside over western portions of Texas, from the Panhandle south to the Permian Basin. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE VICINITY SOUTH TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms -- along with potential for locally strong/severe storms capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts -- are expected Saturday across portions of the central and southern Plains, focused on the southern High Plains area of western Texas. ...Synopsis... Continued amplification of the large-scale pattern aloft is expected Saturday, as the deepening trough progresses eastward across the West. At the surface, an attendant cold front will continue crossing the Intermountain region, emerging into the High Plains overnight. ...Southern High Plains to western Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central Texas... Substantial low-level theta-e advection is forecast to continue across the central and southern Plains Saturday, as the upper trough advances and mid-level height falls ahead of the trough support a broad area of enhanced low-level southerlies. The southerlies through the lower troposphere, beneath increasing mid-level southwesterlies ahead of the upper system, will result in a broad region where deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms. In conjunction with daytime heating of the moistening airmass, destabilization across eastern New Mexico and Texas will occur, with 500 to locally 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Though low-level foci for ascent will be subtle, ongoing/locally robust convection early in the period should persist -- and perhaps expand in coverage through the day, and then continue through the evening and into the overnight hours. Primary risks with the stronger storms will be hail and locally damaging wind gusts. While the overall area where the background environment will be sufficient to support some severe risk will be rather broad, at this time is appears that the greatest CAPE/shear combination will reside over western portions of Texas, from the Panhandle south to the Permian Basin. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Model trends continue to suggest only a very brief period of near 15 mph winds in parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Though fuels are dry enough that impacts may be minimal, some light, spotty showers are possible with the frontal passage as well. The overall scenario continues to suggest locally elevated conditions tomorrow afternoon. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid-level flow will persist over the US Friday as an upper trough moves offshore. A cold front will follow, with high pressure building over the central US. Behind the front, dry offshore flow is likely over parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic Coast. Downslope winds are also possible over parts of the central Rockies and High Plains. While localized gusty winds are possible, the lack of stronger synoptic winds suggests fire-weather concerns are low. ...Northeast... In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a couple hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible across the Mid Atlantic Coast. Breezy 10-15 mph winds are possible through midday with adiabatic drying supporting somewhat lower RH within very dry fuels. However, offshore pressure gradients should gradually weaken through the afternoon, with the strongest winds quickly abating. While fuels are very dry, the overlap with gusty winds and low humidity will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Model trends continue to suggest only a very brief period of near 15 mph winds in parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Though fuels are dry enough that impacts may be minimal, some light, spotty showers are possible with the frontal passage as well. The overall scenario continues to suggest locally elevated conditions tomorrow afternoon. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid-level flow will persist over the US Friday as an upper trough moves offshore. A cold front will follow, with high pressure building over the central US. Behind the front, dry offshore flow is likely over parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic Coast. Downslope winds are also possible over parts of the central Rockies and High Plains. While localized gusty winds are possible, the lack of stronger synoptic winds suggests fire-weather concerns are low. ...Northeast... In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a couple hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible across the Mid Atlantic Coast. Breezy 10-15 mph winds are possible through midday with adiabatic drying supporting somewhat lower RH within very dry fuels. However, offshore pressure gradients should gradually weaken through the afternoon, with the strongest winds quickly abating. While fuels are very dry, the overlap with gusty winds and low humidity will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Model trends continue to suggest only a very brief period of near 15 mph winds in parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Though fuels are dry enough that impacts may be minimal, some light, spotty showers are possible with the frontal passage as well. The overall scenario continues to suggest locally elevated conditions tomorrow afternoon. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid-level flow will persist over the US Friday as an upper trough moves offshore. A cold front will follow, with high pressure building over the central US. Behind the front, dry offshore flow is likely over parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic Coast. Downslope winds are also possible over parts of the central Rockies and High Plains. While localized gusty winds are possible, the lack of stronger synoptic winds suggests fire-weather concerns are low. ...Northeast... In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a couple hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible across the Mid Atlantic Coast. Breezy 10-15 mph winds are possible through midday with adiabatic drying supporting somewhat lower RH within very dry fuels. However, offshore pressure gradients should gradually weaken through the afternoon, with the strongest winds quickly abating. While fuels are very dry, the overlap with gusty winds and low humidity will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Model trends continue to suggest only a very brief period of near 15 mph winds in parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Though fuels are dry enough that impacts may be minimal, some light, spotty showers are possible with the frontal passage as well. The overall scenario continues to suggest locally elevated conditions tomorrow afternoon. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid-level flow will persist over the US Friday as an upper trough moves offshore. A cold front will follow, with high pressure building over the central US. Behind the front, dry offshore flow is likely over parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic Coast. Downslope winds are also possible over parts of the central Rockies and High Plains. While localized gusty winds are possible, the lack of stronger synoptic winds suggests fire-weather concerns are low. ...Northeast... In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a couple hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible across the Mid Atlantic Coast. Breezy 10-15 mph winds are possible through midday with adiabatic drying supporting somewhat lower RH within very dry fuels. However, offshore pressure gradients should gradually weaken through the afternoon, with the strongest winds quickly abating. While fuels are very dry, the overlap with gusty winds and low humidity will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Model trends continue to suggest only a very brief period of near 15 mph winds in parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Though fuels are dry enough that impacts may be minimal, some light, spotty showers are possible with the frontal passage as well. The overall scenario continues to suggest locally elevated conditions tomorrow afternoon. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid-level flow will persist over the US Friday as an upper trough moves offshore. A cold front will follow, with high pressure building over the central US. Behind the front, dry offshore flow is likely over parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic Coast. Downslope winds are also possible over parts of the central Rockies and High Plains. While localized gusty winds are possible, the lack of stronger synoptic winds suggests fire-weather concerns are low. ...Northeast... In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a couple hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible across the Mid Atlantic Coast. Breezy 10-15 mph winds are possible through midday with adiabatic drying supporting somewhat lower RH within very dry fuels. However, offshore pressure gradients should gradually weaken through the afternoon, with the strongest winds quickly abating. While fuels are very dry, the overlap with gusty winds and low humidity will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2178 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2178 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Areas affected...eastern Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 311549Z - 311845Z SUMMARY...Heavy, wet snow may lead to continued snow accumulation through early afternoon. DISCUSSION...An area of moderate to heavy snow has developed within a deformation band across south-central and eastern Minnesota this morning. Temperatures are marginal with observed temperatures around 32F to 34F within the snow band and ground temperatures well above freezing. However, webcams across south-central Minnesota show that snowfall rates are heavy enough for accumulation. Continued accumulation is expected where snowfall rates are the heaviest through early afternoon. Precipitation rates will start to lessen by mid-afternoon as the surface low starts to occlude. Thereafter, while snow may continue to fall, more significant accumulation is less likely due to the slower rates over warm ground temperatures. ..Bentley.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... LAT...LON 44549392 44839466 45299465 46529313 46889217 46809167 46589152 46019168 45429270 44879342 44549392 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, a few which may become capable of marginal hail/wind, will likely evolve across parts of the southern High Plains Friday evening into the overnight. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the western half of the country Friday, amplifying with time as short-wave energy initially off the West Coast digs south-southeastward toward northern California through the period. At the surface, a cold front will shift across the Northwest and into the Great Basin and California, in tandem with the digging upper feature. Meanwhile, a remnant/west-to-east baroclinic zone will persist from the southeastern U.S. westward into the southern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Ahead of the amplifying western U.S. upper trough, weak mid-level height falls will support a zone of low-level warm advection across the southern High Plains vicinity. Afternoon heating of a gradually moistening low-level airmass will result in modest destabilization, with 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Little nocturnal decrease in instability is expected, as low-level theta-e advection supported by persistent surface southeasterlies should offset any diurnal cooling effects. Given the modest but sufficient CAPE expected by afternoon, ascent should support gradual development of isolated to scattered storms -- initially in the vicinity of higher terrain. Aided by veering/moderately increasing flow with height, shear should support multicell organization and potentially some mid-level rotation. As such, risk for hail and/or wind reaching severe criteria exists locally, with a couple of the strongest storms. This potential should continue overnight, with a northward/northwestward expansion of convection as the low-level theta-e advection increases in tandem with a strengthening south-southeasterly low-level jet. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, a few which may become capable of marginal hail/wind, will likely evolve across parts of the southern High Plains Friday evening into the overnight. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the western half of the country Friday, amplifying with time as short-wave energy initially off the West Coast digs south-southeastward toward northern California through the period. At the surface, a cold front will shift across the Northwest and into the Great Basin and California, in tandem with the digging upper feature. Meanwhile, a remnant/west-to-east baroclinic zone will persist from the southeastern U.S. westward into the southern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Ahead of the amplifying western U.S. upper trough, weak mid-level height falls will support a zone of low-level warm advection across the southern High Plains vicinity. Afternoon heating of a gradually moistening low-level airmass will result in modest destabilization, with 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Little nocturnal decrease in instability is expected, as low-level theta-e advection supported by persistent surface southeasterlies should offset any diurnal cooling effects. Given the modest but sufficient CAPE expected by afternoon, ascent should support gradual development of isolated to scattered storms -- initially in the vicinity of higher terrain. Aided by veering/moderately increasing flow with height, shear should support multicell organization and potentially some mid-level rotation. As such, risk for hail and/or wind reaching severe criteria exists locally, with a couple of the strongest storms. This potential should continue overnight, with a northward/northwestward expansion of convection as the low-level theta-e advection increases in tandem with a strengthening south-southeasterly low-level jet. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, a few which may become capable of marginal hail/wind, will likely evolve across parts of the southern High Plains Friday evening into the overnight. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the western half of the country Friday, amplifying with time as short-wave energy initially off the West Coast digs south-southeastward toward northern California through the period. At the surface, a cold front will shift across the Northwest and into the Great Basin and California, in tandem with the digging upper feature. Meanwhile, a remnant/west-to-east baroclinic zone will persist from the southeastern U.S. westward into the southern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Ahead of the amplifying western U.S. upper trough, weak mid-level height falls will support a zone of low-level warm advection across the southern High Plains vicinity. Afternoon heating of a gradually moistening low-level airmass will result in modest destabilization, with 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Little nocturnal decrease in instability is expected, as low-level theta-e advection supported by persistent surface southeasterlies should offset any diurnal cooling effects. Given the modest but sufficient CAPE expected by afternoon, ascent should support gradual development of isolated to scattered storms -- initially in the vicinity of higher terrain. Aided by veering/moderately increasing flow with height, shear should support multicell organization and potentially some mid-level rotation. As such, risk for hail and/or wind reaching severe criteria exists locally, with a couple of the strongest storms. This potential should continue overnight, with a northward/northwestward expansion of convection as the low-level theta-e advection increases in tandem with a strengthening south-southeasterly low-level jet. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024 Read more