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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, a few which may become capable of marginal hail/wind, will likely evolve across parts of the southern High Plains from this evening into the overnight. ...Synopsis... Moderate west to southwest flow aloft will stretch from the Plains into the Northeast today, with a broad upper trough across much of the West. A strong embedded wave will drop southward overnight from OR/CA into the Great basin, providing cooling aloft. Ahead of this system, gradual height rises will occur over the southern Plains as the western system amplifies. At the surface, high pressure will exist from the Great Lakes southward toward the northern Gulf Coast, with moist low-level easterly winds across the western Gulf of Mexico and into TX. By the end of the period 12Z Saturday, lower 60s F dewpoints will be as far west as the TX/NM border. ...TX... Gradual moistening of the air mass will occur across TX for much of the period, with increasing warm advection around 850 mb overnight as the upper trough amplifies to the west. Still, wind speeds will not be particularly strong, perhaps around 30-40 kt over west TX by 12Z Saturday. Although gradual warming aloft is forecast overnight, 500 mb temperatures around -10 C will still exist around the latitude of Midland. With lower 60s F dewpoints at this elevation, MUCAPE will likely exceed 1000 J/kg, while deep-layer effective shear increases to around 35 kt. Thunderstorms will likely form after 03Z over much of eastern NM and far west TX, eventually spreading into the far western TX Panhandle and South Plains. Generally veering and increasing winds with height may favor a few transient storms capable of marginally severe hail, though some midlevel weakness in wind speeds is noted. As such, a Marginal Risk for hail appears warranted tonight, perhaps as far southwest as El Paso TX. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, a few which may become capable of marginal hail/wind, will likely evolve across parts of the southern High Plains from this evening into the overnight. ...Synopsis... Moderate west to southwest flow aloft will stretch from the Plains into the Northeast today, with a broad upper trough across much of the West. A strong embedded wave will drop southward overnight from OR/CA into the Great basin, providing cooling aloft. Ahead of this system, gradual height rises will occur over the southern Plains as the western system amplifies. At the surface, high pressure will exist from the Great Lakes southward toward the northern Gulf Coast, with moist low-level easterly winds across the western Gulf of Mexico and into TX. By the end of the period 12Z Saturday, lower 60s F dewpoints will be as far west as the TX/NM border. ...TX... Gradual moistening of the air mass will occur across TX for much of the period, with increasing warm advection around 850 mb overnight as the upper trough amplifies to the west. Still, wind speeds will not be particularly strong, perhaps around 30-40 kt over west TX by 12Z Saturday. Although gradual warming aloft is forecast overnight, 500 mb temperatures around -10 C will still exist around the latitude of Midland. With lower 60s F dewpoints at this elevation, MUCAPE will likely exceed 1000 J/kg, while deep-layer effective shear increases to around 35 kt. Thunderstorms will likely form after 03Z over much of eastern NM and far west TX, eventually spreading into the far western TX Panhandle and South Plains. Generally veering and increasing winds with height may favor a few transient storms capable of marginally severe hail, though some midlevel weakness in wind speeds is noted. As such, a Marginal Risk for hail appears warranted tonight, perhaps as far southwest as El Paso TX. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, a few which may become capable of marginal hail/wind, will likely evolve across parts of the southern High Plains from this evening into the overnight. ...Synopsis... Moderate west to southwest flow aloft will stretch from the Plains into the Northeast today, with a broad upper trough across much of the West. A strong embedded wave will drop southward overnight from OR/CA into the Great basin, providing cooling aloft. Ahead of this system, gradual height rises will occur over the southern Plains as the western system amplifies. At the surface, high pressure will exist from the Great Lakes southward toward the northern Gulf Coast, with moist low-level easterly winds across the western Gulf of Mexico and into TX. By the end of the period 12Z Saturday, lower 60s F dewpoints will be as far west as the TX/NM border. ...TX... Gradual moistening of the air mass will occur across TX for much of the period, with increasing warm advection around 850 mb overnight as the upper trough amplifies to the west. Still, wind speeds will not be particularly strong, perhaps around 30-40 kt over west TX by 12Z Saturday. Although gradual warming aloft is forecast overnight, 500 mb temperatures around -10 C will still exist around the latitude of Midland. With lower 60s F dewpoints at this elevation, MUCAPE will likely exceed 1000 J/kg, while deep-layer effective shear increases to around 35 kt. Thunderstorms will likely form after 03Z over much of eastern NM and far west TX, eventually spreading into the far western TX Panhandle and South Plains. Generally veering and increasing winds with height may favor a few transient storms capable of marginally severe hail, though some midlevel weakness in wind speeds is noted. As such, a Marginal Risk for hail appears warranted tonight, perhaps as far southwest as El Paso TX. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning. Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening near a weak surface trough extending from far southern TX into LA and MS. These storms remain in a weakly sheared environment, well south of the shortwave trough moving across the upper Great Lakes. While the environment is moist and marginally unstable, severe weather is therefore unlikely. ..Jewell.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning. Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening near a weak surface trough extending from far southern TX into LA and MS. These storms remain in a weakly sheared environment, well south of the shortwave trough moving across the upper Great Lakes. While the environment is moist and marginally unstable, severe weather is therefore unlikely. ..Jewell.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning. Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening near a weak surface trough extending from far southern TX into LA and MS. These storms remain in a weakly sheared environment, well south of the shortwave trough moving across the upper Great Lakes. While the environment is moist and marginally unstable, severe weather is therefore unlikely. ..Jewell.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning. Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening near a weak surface trough extending from far southern TX into LA and MS. These storms remain in a weakly sheared environment, well south of the shortwave trough moving across the upper Great Lakes. While the environment is moist and marginally unstable, severe weather is therefore unlikely. ..Jewell.. 11/01/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312343
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 31 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP92):
Satellite-derived winds indicate that the area of low pressure
located a little over 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has become better defined this
afternoon. However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains
disorganized. Some further development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while the low moves slowly to the
west-northwest. By late this weekend, environmental conditions are
expected to become less conducive to development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern
Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Afterward,
some slow development is possible while the system meanders or
drifts generally eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 31 22:30:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 31 22:30:02 UTC 2024.

Canyon Lake was nearly 27 feet low, and 23 boat ramps were no longer in use due to low water levels. Boat ramp #18 will close on Nov. 1 because it has just 14 feet of ramp with a steep drop at the end, making it too dangerous to use. The flow of the Guadalupe River into Canyon Lake was very weak. KABB-TV FOX 29 San Antonio (Texas), Oct 31, 2024

Dry weather in Illinois hastened the harvest, but slowed fieldwork. The dry ground was too hard for some tillage tools. Vertical drilling was not possible because the machine would not go into the ground. Some farmers with newer rippers with rolling baskets were able to get through the field. Those with older tools were leaving enormous clods of dirt. Field fires have also been a problem as the strong winds and low humidity have fueled fires across the state. Heat and drought have also delayed applications of anhydrous ammonia. The soil also needs to be somewhat moist to capture the ammonia or it is wasted. Farm Week Now (Bloomington, Ill.), Oct 31, 2024

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Great Basin/Four Corners this weekend and eject into the Plains by early next week. A moderately strong surface high will move into the Great Basin and Northwest in its wake. Another strong upper-level trough is then forecast to dig into the same region by the middle of next week with an additional surface high in its wake as well. Models do differ slightly on the evolution of this secondary trough by late next week. Fire weather concerns will primarily focus on southern California during the period. Dry and windy conditions are possible in some parts of the Plains with the two troughs, but preceding precipitation should greatly limit fire weather concerns. ...California... Downslope/offshore winds are possible Sunday into Tuesday from the Sacramento Valley into southern California. For northern California, the upper-level system will bring enough precipitation to largely mitigate any fire weather concerns. For southern California, minimal precipitation is expected. Even so, the offshore winds will be occurring over generally unreceptive fuels. For next Wednesday into Thursday, another offshore wind event appears possible with a another strong upper trough moving into the Great Basin and Southwest. Current forecast guidance suggests the orientation of the trough will be favorable for some upper-level wind support as well. The primary question will be how fuels respond to the initial offshore winds. At this time, it is uncertain whether substantial fire weather risk will develop. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Great Basin/Four Corners this weekend and eject into the Plains by early next week. A moderately strong surface high will move into the Great Basin and Northwest in its wake. Another strong upper-level trough is then forecast to dig into the same region by the middle of next week with an additional surface high in its wake as well. Models do differ slightly on the evolution of this secondary trough by late next week. Fire weather concerns will primarily focus on southern California during the period. Dry and windy conditions are possible in some parts of the Plains with the two troughs, but preceding precipitation should greatly limit fire weather concerns. ...California... Downslope/offshore winds are possible Sunday into Tuesday from the Sacramento Valley into southern California. For northern California, the upper-level system will bring enough precipitation to largely mitigate any fire weather concerns. For southern California, minimal precipitation is expected. Even so, the offshore winds will be occurring over generally unreceptive fuels. For next Wednesday into Thursday, another offshore wind event appears possible with a another strong upper trough moving into the Great Basin and Southwest. Current forecast guidance suggests the orientation of the trough will be favorable for some upper-level wind support as well. The primary question will be how fuels respond to the initial offshore winds. At this time, it is uncertain whether substantial fire weather risk will develop. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Great Basin/Four Corners this weekend and eject into the Plains by early next week. A moderately strong surface high will move into the Great Basin and Northwest in its wake. Another strong upper-level trough is then forecast to dig into the same region by the middle of next week with an additional surface high in its wake as well. Models do differ slightly on the evolution of this secondary trough by late next week. Fire weather concerns will primarily focus on southern California during the period. Dry and windy conditions are possible in some parts of the Plains with the two troughs, but preceding precipitation should greatly limit fire weather concerns. ...California... Downslope/offshore winds are possible Sunday into Tuesday from the Sacramento Valley into southern California. For northern California, the upper-level system will bring enough precipitation to largely mitigate any fire weather concerns. For southern California, minimal precipitation is expected. Even so, the offshore winds will be occurring over generally unreceptive fuels. For next Wednesday into Thursday, another offshore wind event appears possible with a another strong upper trough moving into the Great Basin and Southwest. Current forecast guidance suggests the orientation of the trough will be favorable for some upper-level wind support as well. The primary question will be how fuels respond to the initial offshore winds. At this time, it is uncertain whether substantial fire weather risk will develop. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Great Basin/Four Corners this weekend and eject into the Plains by early next week. A moderately strong surface high will move into the Great Basin and Northwest in its wake. Another strong upper-level trough is then forecast to dig into the same region by the middle of next week with an additional surface high in its wake as well. Models do differ slightly on the evolution of this secondary trough by late next week. Fire weather concerns will primarily focus on southern California during the period. Dry and windy conditions are possible in some parts of the Plains with the two troughs, but preceding precipitation should greatly limit fire weather concerns. ...California... Downslope/offshore winds are possible Sunday into Tuesday from the Sacramento Valley into southern California. For northern California, the upper-level system will bring enough precipitation to largely mitigate any fire weather concerns. For southern California, minimal precipitation is expected. Even so, the offshore winds will be occurring over generally unreceptive fuels. For next Wednesday into Thursday, another offshore wind event appears possible with a another strong upper trough moving into the Great Basin and Southwest. Current forecast guidance suggests the orientation of the trough will be favorable for some upper-level wind support as well. The primary question will be how fuels respond to the initial offshore winds. At this time, it is uncertain whether substantial fire weather risk will develop. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Great Basin/Four Corners this weekend and eject into the Plains by early next week. A moderately strong surface high will move into the Great Basin and Northwest in its wake. Another strong upper-level trough is then forecast to dig into the same region by the middle of next week with an additional surface high in its wake as well. Models do differ slightly on the evolution of this secondary trough by late next week. Fire weather concerns will primarily focus on southern California during the period. Dry and windy conditions are possible in some parts of the Plains with the two troughs, but preceding precipitation should greatly limit fire weather concerns. ...California... Downslope/offshore winds are possible Sunday into Tuesday from the Sacramento Valley into southern California. For northern California, the upper-level system will bring enough precipitation to largely mitigate any fire weather concerns. For southern California, minimal precipitation is expected. Even so, the offshore winds will be occurring over generally unreceptive fuels. For next Wednesday into Thursday, another offshore wind event appears possible with a another strong upper trough moving into the Great Basin and Southwest. Current forecast guidance suggests the orientation of the trough will be favorable for some upper-level wind support as well. The primary question will be how fuels respond to the initial offshore winds. At this time, it is uncertain whether substantial fire weather risk will develop. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Great Basin/Four Corners this weekend and eject into the Plains by early next week. A moderately strong surface high will move into the Great Basin and Northwest in its wake. Another strong upper-level trough is then forecast to dig into the same region by the middle of next week with an additional surface high in its wake as well. Models do differ slightly on the evolution of this secondary trough by late next week. Fire weather concerns will primarily focus on southern California during the period. Dry and windy conditions are possible in some parts of the Plains with the two troughs, but preceding precipitation should greatly limit fire weather concerns. ...California... Downslope/offshore winds are possible Sunday into Tuesday from the Sacramento Valley into southern California. For northern California, the upper-level system will bring enough precipitation to largely mitigate any fire weather concerns. For southern California, minimal precipitation is expected. Even so, the offshore winds will be occurring over generally unreceptive fuels. For next Wednesday into Thursday, another offshore wind event appears possible with a another strong upper trough moving into the Great Basin and Southwest. Current forecast guidance suggests the orientation of the trough will be favorable for some upper-level wind support as well. The primary question will be how fuels respond to the initial offshore winds. At this time, it is uncertain whether substantial fire weather risk will develop. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The soybean harvest was about four weeks ahead. In Langlade, Marinette, Oconto and Shawano counties, many farms were done harvesting at a time when farmers would typically begin to harvest. Dry weather has hurt crop quality. While soybeans are ideally sold at 14% moisture, farmers were finding the beans at 10% or lower. Soybeans were also smaller than normal. Cover crops have been planted since the harvest was completed earlier than usual, but the lack of moisture in the soil has slowed germination. In drought-affected corn fields, there were more broken stalks and fallen cobs, lowering potential yields. Wisconsin Public Radio (Madison), Oct 24, 2024

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk across the Southeast was removed with this update. Storms have largely been sub-severe and disorganized, as low-level flow remains weak. In addition, thunder chances were removed from the Pacific Northwest. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent, and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability. Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be considered with the next scheduled update (20Z). ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low. Read more