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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude westerly upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS on Sunday. Surface low pressure over the central Plains will result in some modest baroclinicity across the southern Plains. The resulting southerly low-level flow will transport modest Gulf moisture northward across TX, but deeper moisture will remain confined to the coast. Further north, a cold front will develop south across the northern Intermountain region and northern Plains. Cold Arctic air and strong surface high pressure will build south in the wake of the front. Given poor boundary-layer moisture and little upper-level support, thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude westerly upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS on Sunday. Surface low pressure over the central Plains will result in some modest baroclinicity across the southern Plains. The resulting southerly low-level flow will transport modest Gulf moisture northward across TX, but deeper moisture will remain confined to the coast. Further north, a cold front will develop south across the northern Intermountain region and northern Plains. Cold Arctic air and strong surface high pressure will build south in the wake of the front. Given poor boundary-layer moisture and little upper-level support, thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Winds of 15-20 mph continue to appear possible in the southern High Plains. However, the strongest winds will likely be brief/localized. RH will also likely be below 20%. Some guidance does suggest RH around 10%. Given the dry air aloft moving in, there is some potential for drier than expected conditions. Even so, fuel receptiveness is rather marginal, particularly for the eastern New Mexico plains into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. The greatest potential for briefly sustained elevated conditions will be within the highlands/foothills of central New Mexico. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast D2/Saturday. Increasing flow aloft will support strengthening winds and a deepening low over parts of the Plains. This could allow for some localized fire-weather risk. ...Southern Plains... As flow aloft, and several embedded shortwave troughs, pass over the central Rockies Saturday, a lee low should intensify south/southwesterly flow over parts of the southern High Plains. Mild temperatures and the downslope trajectories should support some overlap of winds greater than 15 mph and RH below 20%. While intermittent and localized elevated conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Winds of 15-20 mph continue to appear possible in the southern High Plains. However, the strongest winds will likely be brief/localized. RH will also likely be below 20%. Some guidance does suggest RH around 10%. Given the dry air aloft moving in, there is some potential for drier than expected conditions. Even so, fuel receptiveness is rather marginal, particularly for the eastern New Mexico plains into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. The greatest potential for briefly sustained elevated conditions will be within the highlands/foothills of central New Mexico. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast D2/Saturday. Increasing flow aloft will support strengthening winds and a deepening low over parts of the Plains. This could allow for some localized fire-weather risk. ...Southern Plains... As flow aloft, and several embedded shortwave troughs, pass over the central Rockies Saturday, a lee low should intensify south/southwesterly flow over parts of the southern High Plains. Mild temperatures and the downslope trajectories should support some overlap of winds greater than 15 mph and RH below 20%. While intermittent and localized elevated conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Winds of 15-20 mph continue to appear possible in the southern High Plains. However, the strongest winds will likely be brief/localized. RH will also likely be below 20%. Some guidance does suggest RH around 10%. Given the dry air aloft moving in, there is some potential for drier than expected conditions. Even so, fuel receptiveness is rather marginal, particularly for the eastern New Mexico plains into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. The greatest potential for briefly sustained elevated conditions will be within the highlands/foothills of central New Mexico. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast D2/Saturday. Increasing flow aloft will support strengthening winds and a deepening low over parts of the Plains. This could allow for some localized fire-weather risk. ...Southern Plains... As flow aloft, and several embedded shortwave troughs, pass over the central Rockies Saturday, a lee low should intensify south/southwesterly flow over parts of the southern High Plains. Mild temperatures and the downslope trajectories should support some overlap of winds greater than 15 mph and RH below 20%. While intermittent and localized elevated conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Winds of 15-20 mph continue to appear possible in the southern High Plains. However, the strongest winds will likely be brief/localized. RH will also likely be below 20%. Some guidance does suggest RH around 10%. Given the dry air aloft moving in, there is some potential for drier than expected conditions. Even so, fuel receptiveness is rather marginal, particularly for the eastern New Mexico plains into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. The greatest potential for briefly sustained elevated conditions will be within the highlands/foothills of central New Mexico. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast D2/Saturday. Increasing flow aloft will support strengthening winds and a deepening low over parts of the Plains. This could allow for some localized fire-weather risk. ...Southern Plains... As flow aloft, and several embedded shortwave troughs, pass over the central Rockies Saturday, a lee low should intensify south/southwesterly flow over parts of the southern High Plains. Mild temperatures and the downslope trajectories should support some overlap of winds greater than 15 mph and RH below 20%. While intermittent and localized elevated conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Winds of 15-20 mph continue to appear possible in the southern High Plains. However, the strongest winds will likely be brief/localized. RH will also likely be below 20%. Some guidance does suggest RH around 10%. Given the dry air aloft moving in, there is some potential for drier than expected conditions. Even so, fuel receptiveness is rather marginal, particularly for the eastern New Mexico plains into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. The greatest potential for briefly sustained elevated conditions will be within the highlands/foothills of central New Mexico. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast D2/Saturday. Increasing flow aloft will support strengthening winds and a deepening low over parts of the Plains. This could allow for some localized fire-weather risk. ...Southern Plains... As flow aloft, and several embedded shortwave troughs, pass over the central Rockies Saturday, a lee low should intensify south/southwesterly flow over parts of the southern High Plains. Mild temperatures and the downslope trajectories should support some overlap of winds greater than 15 mph and RH below 20%. While intermittent and localized elevated conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude, quasi-zonal upper level flow will emerge across the CONUS as a shortwave trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast early Saturday. At the surface, low pressure centered over southern portions of the Canadian Prairies will shift east, while a trailing cold front moves across the northern Rockies/High Plains region. A weak frontal zone across the FL Peninsula will dissipate, while strong surface high pressure persists across the eastern U.S. northern low-level flow across the western Atlantic and Gulf will result in a dry and stable airmass across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Precipitation is more likely across portions of the Pacific Northwest as moist onshore deep-layer flow streams over the region. Cold midlevels will result in steep lapse rates and meager elevated instability. A lightning flash or two is possible along the WA coast with low-topped convection, but thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent and more likely offshore. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude, quasi-zonal upper level flow will emerge across the CONUS as a shortwave trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast early Saturday. At the surface, low pressure centered over southern portions of the Canadian Prairies will shift east, while a trailing cold front moves across the northern Rockies/High Plains region. A weak frontal zone across the FL Peninsula will dissipate, while strong surface high pressure persists across the eastern U.S. northern low-level flow across the western Atlantic and Gulf will result in a dry and stable airmass across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Precipitation is more likely across portions of the Pacific Northwest as moist onshore deep-layer flow streams over the region. Cold midlevels will result in steep lapse rates and meager elevated instability. A lightning flash or two is possible along the WA coast with low-topped convection, but thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent and more likely offshore. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude, quasi-zonal upper level flow will emerge across the CONUS as a shortwave trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast early Saturday. At the surface, low pressure centered over southern portions of the Canadian Prairies will shift east, while a trailing cold front moves across the northern Rockies/High Plains region. A weak frontal zone across the FL Peninsula will dissipate, while strong surface high pressure persists across the eastern U.S. northern low-level flow across the western Atlantic and Gulf will result in a dry and stable airmass across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Precipitation is more likely across portions of the Pacific Northwest as moist onshore deep-layer flow streams over the region. Cold midlevels will result in steep lapse rates and meager elevated instability. A lightning flash or two is possible along the WA coast with low-topped convection, but thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent and more likely offshore. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude, quasi-zonal upper level flow will emerge across the CONUS as a shortwave trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast early Saturday. At the surface, low pressure centered over southern portions of the Canadian Prairies will shift east, while a trailing cold front moves across the northern Rockies/High Plains region. A weak frontal zone across the FL Peninsula will dissipate, while strong surface high pressure persists across the eastern U.S. northern low-level flow across the western Atlantic and Gulf will result in a dry and stable airmass across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Precipitation is more likely across portions of the Pacific Northwest as moist onshore deep-layer flow streams over the region. Cold midlevels will result in steep lapse rates and meager elevated instability. A lightning flash or two is possible along the WA coast with low-topped convection, but thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent and more likely offshore. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude, quasi-zonal upper level flow will emerge across the CONUS as a shortwave trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast early Saturday. At the surface, low pressure centered over southern portions of the Canadian Prairies will shift east, while a trailing cold front moves across the northern Rockies/High Plains region. A weak frontal zone across the FL Peninsula will dissipate, while strong surface high pressure persists across the eastern U.S. northern low-level flow across the western Atlantic and Gulf will result in a dry and stable airmass across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Precipitation is more likely across portions of the Pacific Northwest as moist onshore deep-layer flow streams over the region. Cold midlevels will result in steep lapse rates and meager elevated instability. A lightning flash or two is possible along the WA coast with low-topped convection, but thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent and more likely offshore. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude, quasi-zonal upper level flow will emerge across the CONUS as a shortwave trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast early Saturday. At the surface, low pressure centered over southern portions of the Canadian Prairies will shift east, while a trailing cold front moves across the northern Rockies/High Plains region. A weak frontal zone across the FL Peninsula will dissipate, while strong surface high pressure persists across the eastern U.S. northern low-level flow across the western Atlantic and Gulf will result in a dry and stable airmass across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Precipitation is more likely across portions of the Pacific Northwest as moist onshore deep-layer flow streams over the region. Cold midlevels will result in steep lapse rates and meager elevated instability. A lightning flash or two is possible along the WA coast with low-topped convection, but thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent and more likely offshore. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude, quasi-zonal upper level flow will emerge across the CONUS as a shortwave trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast early Saturday. At the surface, low pressure centered over southern portions of the Canadian Prairies will shift east, while a trailing cold front moves across the northern Rockies/High Plains region. A weak frontal zone across the FL Peninsula will dissipate, while strong surface high pressure persists across the eastern U.S. northern low-level flow across the western Atlantic and Gulf will result in a dry and stable airmass across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Precipitation is more likely across portions of the Pacific Northwest as moist onshore deep-layer flow streams over the region. Cold midlevels will result in steep lapse rates and meager elevated instability. A lightning flash or two is possible along the WA coast with low-topped convection, but thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent and more likely offshore. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Downslope winds in the lee of the Laramie Mountains may produce locally elevated conditions, but the overall environment (including fuels) does not suggest significant fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Downslope winds in the lee of the Laramie Mountains may produce locally elevated conditions, but the overall environment (including fuels) does not suggest significant fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Downslope winds in the lee of the Laramie Mountains may produce locally elevated conditions, but the overall environment (including fuels) does not suggest significant fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Downslope winds in the lee of the Laramie Mountains may produce locally elevated conditions, but the overall environment (including fuels) does not suggest significant fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Downslope winds in the lee of the Laramie Mountains may produce locally elevated conditions, but the overall environment (including fuels) does not suggest significant fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Downslope winds in the lee of the Laramie Mountains may produce locally elevated conditions, but the overall environment (including fuels) does not suggest significant fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more