Aggregator

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A deep/high-amplitude upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the western U.S. Sunday, and will begin to emerge into the High Plains late. At the surface, an associated cold front will likewise advance eastward out of the Rockies, and should extend from the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity south-southwestward to the southern Plains by Monday morning. ...Central and southern Plains... The potential for severe weather Sunday is difficult to delineate, given widespread/substantial prior -- and ongoing -- convection across the Oklahoma/northern Texas area. As such, areas of potentially greater destabilization remain uncertain. Despite this, an amply moist warm sector and favorably sheared environment will exist ahead of the advancing upper system, which should support severe storms locally. Therefore, maintenance of a large/rather broad risk area across portions of the central and southern Plains remains the most reasonable forecast. Where greater instability can evolve, potentially on western fringes of the outlook area from western Kansas south across the Texas Big Country, risk for large hail and a couple of tornadoes could evolve. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts would appear to be the most likely risk -- which may persist well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A deep/high-amplitude upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the western U.S. Sunday, and will begin to emerge into the High Plains late. At the surface, an associated cold front will likewise advance eastward out of the Rockies, and should extend from the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity south-southwestward to the southern Plains by Monday morning. ...Central and southern Plains... The potential for severe weather Sunday is difficult to delineate, given widespread/substantial prior -- and ongoing -- convection across the Oklahoma/northern Texas area. As such, areas of potentially greater destabilization remain uncertain. Despite this, an amply moist warm sector and favorably sheared environment will exist ahead of the advancing upper system, which should support severe storms locally. Therefore, maintenance of a large/rather broad risk area across portions of the central and southern Plains remains the most reasonable forecast. Where greater instability can evolve, potentially on western fringes of the outlook area from western Kansas south across the Texas Big Country, risk for large hail and a couple of tornadoes could evolve. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts would appear to be the most likely risk -- which may persist well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A deep/high-amplitude upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the western U.S. Sunday, and will begin to emerge into the High Plains late. At the surface, an associated cold front will likewise advance eastward out of the Rockies, and should extend from the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity south-southwestward to the southern Plains by Monday morning. ...Central and southern Plains... The potential for severe weather Sunday is difficult to delineate, given widespread/substantial prior -- and ongoing -- convection across the Oklahoma/northern Texas area. As such, areas of potentially greater destabilization remain uncertain. Despite this, an amply moist warm sector and favorably sheared environment will exist ahead of the advancing upper system, which should support severe storms locally. Therefore, maintenance of a large/rather broad risk area across portions of the central and southern Plains remains the most reasonable forecast. Where greater instability can evolve, potentially on western fringes of the outlook area from western Kansas south across the Texas Big Country, risk for large hail and a couple of tornadoes could evolve. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts would appear to be the most likely risk -- which may persist well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A deep/high-amplitude upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the western U.S. Sunday, and will begin to emerge into the High Plains late. At the surface, an associated cold front will likewise advance eastward out of the Rockies, and should extend from the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity south-southwestward to the southern Plains by Monday morning. ...Central and southern Plains... The potential for severe weather Sunday is difficult to delineate, given widespread/substantial prior -- and ongoing -- convection across the Oklahoma/northern Texas area. As such, areas of potentially greater destabilization remain uncertain. Despite this, an amply moist warm sector and favorably sheared environment will exist ahead of the advancing upper system, which should support severe storms locally. Therefore, maintenance of a large/rather broad risk area across portions of the central and southern Plains remains the most reasonable forecast. Where greater instability can evolve, potentially on western fringes of the outlook area from western Kansas south across the Texas Big Country, risk for large hail and a couple of tornadoes could evolve. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts would appear to be the most likely risk -- which may persist well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A deep/high-amplitude upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the western U.S. Sunday, and will begin to emerge into the High Plains late. At the surface, an associated cold front will likewise advance eastward out of the Rockies, and should extend from the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity south-southwestward to the southern Plains by Monday morning. ...Central and southern Plains... The potential for severe weather Sunday is difficult to delineate, given widespread/substantial prior -- and ongoing -- convection across the Oklahoma/northern Texas area. As such, areas of potentially greater destabilization remain uncertain. Despite this, an amply moist warm sector and favorably sheared environment will exist ahead of the advancing upper system, which should support severe storms locally. Therefore, maintenance of a large/rather broad risk area across portions of the central and southern Plains remains the most reasonable forecast. Where greater instability can evolve, potentially on western fringes of the outlook area from western Kansas south across the Texas Big Country, risk for large hail and a couple of tornadoes could evolve. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts would appear to be the most likely risk -- which may persist well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A deep/high-amplitude upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the western U.S. Sunday, and will begin to emerge into the High Plains late. At the surface, an associated cold front will likewise advance eastward out of the Rockies, and should extend from the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity south-southwestward to the southern Plains by Monday morning. ...Central and southern Plains... The potential for severe weather Sunday is difficult to delineate, given widespread/substantial prior -- and ongoing -- convection across the Oklahoma/northern Texas area. As such, areas of potentially greater destabilization remain uncertain. Despite this, an amply moist warm sector and favorably sheared environment will exist ahead of the advancing upper system, which should support severe storms locally. Therefore, maintenance of a large/rather broad risk area across portions of the central and southern Plains remains the most reasonable forecast. Where greater instability can evolve, potentially on western fringes of the outlook area from western Kansas south across the Texas Big Country, risk for large hail and a couple of tornadoes could evolve. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts would appear to be the most likely risk -- which may persist well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A deep/high-amplitude upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the western U.S. Sunday, and will begin to emerge into the High Plains late. At the surface, an associated cold front will likewise advance eastward out of the Rockies, and should extend from the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity south-southwestward to the southern Plains by Monday morning. ...Central and southern Plains... The potential for severe weather Sunday is difficult to delineate, given widespread/substantial prior -- and ongoing -- convection across the Oklahoma/northern Texas area. As such, areas of potentially greater destabilization remain uncertain. Despite this, an amply moist warm sector and favorably sheared environment will exist ahead of the advancing upper system, which should support severe storms locally. Therefore, maintenance of a large/rather broad risk area across portions of the central and southern Plains remains the most reasonable forecast. Where greater instability can evolve, potentially on western fringes of the outlook area from western Kansas south across the Texas Big Country, risk for large hail and a couple of tornadoes could evolve. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts would appear to be the most likely risk -- which may persist well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A deep/high-amplitude upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the western U.S. Sunday, and will begin to emerge into the High Plains late. At the surface, an associated cold front will likewise advance eastward out of the Rockies, and should extend from the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity south-southwestward to the southern Plains by Monday morning. ...Central and southern Plains... The potential for severe weather Sunday is difficult to delineate, given widespread/substantial prior -- and ongoing -- convection across the Oklahoma/northern Texas area. As such, areas of potentially greater destabilization remain uncertain. Despite this, an amply moist warm sector and favorably sheared environment will exist ahead of the advancing upper system, which should support severe storms locally. Therefore, maintenance of a large/rather broad risk area across portions of the central and southern Plains remains the most reasonable forecast. Where greater instability can evolve, potentially on western fringes of the outlook area from western Kansas south across the Texas Big Country, risk for large hail and a couple of tornadoes could evolve. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts would appear to be the most likely risk -- which may persist well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough, preceded by strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow, will advance slowly eastward across the western CONUS. This will promote breezy south-southwesterly surface winds from the Southwest into the High Plains, though a limited overlap with warm/dry conditions and dry fuels should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough, preceded by strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow, will advance slowly eastward across the western CONUS. This will promote breezy south-southwesterly surface winds from the Southwest into the High Plains, though a limited overlap with warm/dry conditions and dry fuels should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough, preceded by strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow, will advance slowly eastward across the western CONUS. This will promote breezy south-southwesterly surface winds from the Southwest into the High Plains, though a limited overlap with warm/dry conditions and dry fuels should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough, preceded by strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow, will advance slowly eastward across the western CONUS. This will promote breezy south-southwesterly surface winds from the Southwest into the High Plains, though a limited overlap with warm/dry conditions and dry fuels should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough, preceded by strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow, will advance slowly eastward across the western CONUS. This will promote breezy south-southwesterly surface winds from the Southwest into the High Plains, though a limited overlap with warm/dry conditions and dry fuels should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough, preceded by strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow, will advance slowly eastward across the western CONUS. This will promote breezy south-southwesterly surface winds from the Southwest into the High Plains, though a limited overlap with warm/dry conditions and dry fuels should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough, preceded by strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow, will advance slowly eastward across the western CONUS. This will promote breezy south-southwesterly surface winds from the Southwest into the High Plains, though a limited overlap with warm/dry conditions and dry fuels should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN VICINITY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are expected Saturday and Saturday night across parts of the southern Great Plains. The most likely corridor for a couple tornadoes and large hail is across parts of the Permian Basin and South Plains of Texas during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... Digging/intensification -- and gradual/steady progression -- of the western U.S. upper trough is expected Saturday. As this system shifts from the West Coast states across the Great Basin and into the Desert Southwest, substantial downstream mid-level height falls will occur across the central and southern Plains. At the surface, a remnant baroclinic zone -- extending from Texas eastward across the Southeast -- will mark the northern extent of the moist Gulf low-level airmass. This boundary -- in response to persistent southeasterly low-level flow -- should tend to retreat northwestward across Texas/Oklahoma, though likely to become impeded by convective outflow. The result will likely become a convectively reinforced boundary extending from the Permian Basin vicinity east-northeastward into Oklahoma, which will focus persistent, regenerative convection and some attendant severe risk through the period. ...Transpecos region and southeastern New Mexico northeastward into central and northern Oklahoma... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period from southeastern New Mexico northeastward into southern Kansas, with potentially some local/low-end severe risk on the southern fringe of this convection. South of the convection, some heating/destabilization is expected -- particularly across the Transpecos/Permian Basin region. Here, an afternoon increase in convection -- likely in the form of supercells -- is expected to occur. Here, large hail will be possible, along with potential for locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes. Into the evening, convection should increase in coverage -- likely evolving into multiple linear bands, as a low-level jet increases. Though instability should remain lesser with northeastward extent into Oklahoma, owing to relatively weak lapse rates, multiple rounds of banded convection should be accompanied by risk for locally strong wind gusts, along with marginal hail and potentially a tornado or two. This potential should persist well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN VICINITY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are expected Saturday and Saturday night across parts of the southern Great Plains. The most likely corridor for a couple tornadoes and large hail is across parts of the Permian Basin and South Plains of Texas during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... Digging/intensification -- and gradual/steady progression -- of the western U.S. upper trough is expected Saturday. As this system shifts from the West Coast states across the Great Basin and into the Desert Southwest, substantial downstream mid-level height falls will occur across the central and southern Plains. At the surface, a remnant baroclinic zone -- extending from Texas eastward across the Southeast -- will mark the northern extent of the moist Gulf low-level airmass. This boundary -- in response to persistent southeasterly low-level flow -- should tend to retreat northwestward across Texas/Oklahoma, though likely to become impeded by convective outflow. The result will likely become a convectively reinforced boundary extending from the Permian Basin vicinity east-northeastward into Oklahoma, which will focus persistent, regenerative convection and some attendant severe risk through the period. ...Transpecos region and southeastern New Mexico northeastward into central and northern Oklahoma... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period from southeastern New Mexico northeastward into southern Kansas, with potentially some local/low-end severe risk on the southern fringe of this convection. South of the convection, some heating/destabilization is expected -- particularly across the Transpecos/Permian Basin region. Here, an afternoon increase in convection -- likely in the form of supercells -- is expected to occur. Here, large hail will be possible, along with potential for locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes. Into the evening, convection should increase in coverage -- likely evolving into multiple linear bands, as a low-level jet increases. Though instability should remain lesser with northeastward extent into Oklahoma, owing to relatively weak lapse rates, multiple rounds of banded convection should be accompanied by risk for locally strong wind gusts, along with marginal hail and potentially a tornado or two. This potential should persist well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN VICINITY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are expected Saturday and Saturday night across parts of the southern Great Plains. The most likely corridor for a couple tornadoes and large hail is across parts of the Permian Basin and South Plains of Texas during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... Digging/intensification -- and gradual/steady progression -- of the western U.S. upper trough is expected Saturday. As this system shifts from the West Coast states across the Great Basin and into the Desert Southwest, substantial downstream mid-level height falls will occur across the central and southern Plains. At the surface, a remnant baroclinic zone -- extending from Texas eastward across the Southeast -- will mark the northern extent of the moist Gulf low-level airmass. This boundary -- in response to persistent southeasterly low-level flow -- should tend to retreat northwestward across Texas/Oklahoma, though likely to become impeded by convective outflow. The result will likely become a convectively reinforced boundary extending from the Permian Basin vicinity east-northeastward into Oklahoma, which will focus persistent, regenerative convection and some attendant severe risk through the period. ...Transpecos region and southeastern New Mexico northeastward into central and northern Oklahoma... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period from southeastern New Mexico northeastward into southern Kansas, with potentially some local/low-end severe risk on the southern fringe of this convection. South of the convection, some heating/destabilization is expected -- particularly across the Transpecos/Permian Basin region. Here, an afternoon increase in convection -- likely in the form of supercells -- is expected to occur. Here, large hail will be possible, along with potential for locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes. Into the evening, convection should increase in coverage -- likely evolving into multiple linear bands, as a low-level jet increases. Though instability should remain lesser with northeastward extent into Oklahoma, owing to relatively weak lapse rates, multiple rounds of banded convection should be accompanied by risk for locally strong wind gusts, along with marginal hail and potentially a tornado or two. This potential should persist well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN VICINITY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are expected Saturday and Saturday night across parts of the southern Great Plains. The most likely corridor for a couple tornadoes and large hail is across parts of the Permian Basin and South Plains of Texas during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... Digging/intensification -- and gradual/steady progression -- of the western U.S. upper trough is expected Saturday. As this system shifts from the West Coast states across the Great Basin and into the Desert Southwest, substantial downstream mid-level height falls will occur across the central and southern Plains. At the surface, a remnant baroclinic zone -- extending from Texas eastward across the Southeast -- will mark the northern extent of the moist Gulf low-level airmass. This boundary -- in response to persistent southeasterly low-level flow -- should tend to retreat northwestward across Texas/Oklahoma, though likely to become impeded by convective outflow. The result will likely become a convectively reinforced boundary extending from the Permian Basin vicinity east-northeastward into Oklahoma, which will focus persistent, regenerative convection and some attendant severe risk through the period. ...Transpecos region and southeastern New Mexico northeastward into central and northern Oklahoma... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period from southeastern New Mexico northeastward into southern Kansas, with potentially some local/low-end severe risk on the southern fringe of this convection. South of the convection, some heating/destabilization is expected -- particularly across the Transpecos/Permian Basin region. Here, an afternoon increase in convection -- likely in the form of supercells -- is expected to occur. Here, large hail will be possible, along with potential for locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes. Into the evening, convection should increase in coverage -- likely evolving into multiple linear bands, as a low-level jet increases. Though instability should remain lesser with northeastward extent into Oklahoma, owing to relatively weak lapse rates, multiple rounds of banded convection should be accompanied by risk for locally strong wind gusts, along with marginal hail and potentially a tornado or two. This potential should persist well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 11/01/2024 Read more