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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large hail, and wind damage, are likely on Monday and Monday night from the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough in the Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet translating southeastward through California within the western part of the system. The jet max will move through the base of the upper-level trough tonight and eject northeastward into the southern Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will develop Monday morning across northwest Texas, with the low deepening and moving northeastward across western Oklahoma during the day. To the south of the low, a dryline from southwest Oklahoma into west-central Texas will sharpen and move eastward. A moist airmass will be in place to the east of the dryline with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. The moist airmass will extend from the southern Plains northeastward into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level moisture, combined with lift associated with the approaching upper-level system, along with instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Over the top of the moist airmass, a broad belt of strong low-level flow will maintain moisture advection throughout the day ahead of the approaching trough. Scattered strong to potentially severe storms are expected during the morning from near the dryline in west-central Texas, eastward into the Ark-La-Tex near the axis of a low-level jet. As the system moves into the southern High Plains during the afternoon, large-scale ascent will become more focused, and the low-level jet will strengthen over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. In response, several line segments will organize and increase in intensity from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. A consensus of model forecast soundings for Monday/21Z to the east of the dryline have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming favorable for strong tornadoes. The potential for strong tornadoes will be associated with the more dominant supercells that remain semi-discrete. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes is expected from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Large hail will also be possible with supercells. The potential for wind damage will become likely with supercells, and will be increasingly possible with line-segments during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will move into the southern Plains during the evening, as the associated dryline and low-level jet shift eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. Ahead of the dryline, a nearly continuous line of severe storms is expected in the evening, which will likely be associated with tornadoes and wind damage. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large hail, and wind damage, are likely on Monday and Monday night from the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough in the Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet translating southeastward through California within the western part of the system. The jet max will move through the base of the upper-level trough tonight and eject northeastward into the southern Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will develop Monday morning across northwest Texas, with the low deepening and moving northeastward across western Oklahoma during the day. To the south of the low, a dryline from southwest Oklahoma into west-central Texas will sharpen and move eastward. A moist airmass will be in place to the east of the dryline with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. The moist airmass will extend from the southern Plains northeastward into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level moisture, combined with lift associated with the approaching upper-level system, along with instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Over the top of the moist airmass, a broad belt of strong low-level flow will maintain moisture advection throughout the day ahead of the approaching trough. Scattered strong to potentially severe storms are expected during the morning from near the dryline in west-central Texas, eastward into the Ark-La-Tex near the axis of a low-level jet. As the system moves into the southern High Plains during the afternoon, large-scale ascent will become more focused, and the low-level jet will strengthen over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. In response, several line segments will organize and increase in intensity from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. A consensus of model forecast soundings for Monday/21Z to the east of the dryline have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming favorable for strong tornadoes. The potential for strong tornadoes will be associated with the more dominant supercells that remain semi-discrete. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes is expected from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Large hail will also be possible with supercells. The potential for wind damage will become likely with supercells, and will be increasingly possible with line-segments during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will move into the southern Plains during the evening, as the associated dryline and low-level jet shift eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. Ahead of the dryline, a nearly continuous line of severe storms is expected in the evening, which will likely be associated with tornadoes and wind damage. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large hail, and wind damage, are likely on Monday and Monday night from the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough in the Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet translating southeastward through California within the western part of the system. The jet max will move through the base of the upper-level trough tonight and eject northeastward into the southern Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will develop Monday morning across northwest Texas, with the low deepening and moving northeastward across western Oklahoma during the day. To the south of the low, a dryline from southwest Oklahoma into west-central Texas will sharpen and move eastward. A moist airmass will be in place to the east of the dryline with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. The moist airmass will extend from the southern Plains northeastward into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level moisture, combined with lift associated with the approaching upper-level system, along with instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Over the top of the moist airmass, a broad belt of strong low-level flow will maintain moisture advection throughout the day ahead of the approaching trough. Scattered strong to potentially severe storms are expected during the morning from near the dryline in west-central Texas, eastward into the Ark-La-Tex near the axis of a low-level jet. As the system moves into the southern High Plains during the afternoon, large-scale ascent will become more focused, and the low-level jet will strengthen over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. In response, several line segments will organize and increase in intensity from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. A consensus of model forecast soundings for Monday/21Z to the east of the dryline have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming favorable for strong tornadoes. The potential for strong tornadoes will be associated with the more dominant supercells that remain semi-discrete. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes is expected from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Large hail will also be possible with supercells. The potential for wind damage will become likely with supercells, and will be increasingly possible with line-segments during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will move into the southern Plains during the evening, as the associated dryline and low-level jet shift eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. Ahead of the dryline, a nearly continuous line of severe storms is expected in the evening, which will likely be associated with tornadoes and wind damage. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large hail, and wind damage, are likely on Monday and Monday night from the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough in the Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet translating southeastward through California within the western part of the system. The jet max will move through the base of the upper-level trough tonight and eject northeastward into the southern Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will develop Monday morning across northwest Texas, with the low deepening and moving northeastward across western Oklahoma during the day. To the south of the low, a dryline from southwest Oklahoma into west-central Texas will sharpen and move eastward. A moist airmass will be in place to the east of the dryline with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. The moist airmass will extend from the southern Plains northeastward into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level moisture, combined with lift associated with the approaching upper-level system, along with instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Over the top of the moist airmass, a broad belt of strong low-level flow will maintain moisture advection throughout the day ahead of the approaching trough. Scattered strong to potentially severe storms are expected during the morning from near the dryline in west-central Texas, eastward into the Ark-La-Tex near the axis of a low-level jet. As the system moves into the southern High Plains during the afternoon, large-scale ascent will become more focused, and the low-level jet will strengthen over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. In response, several line segments will organize and increase in intensity from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. A consensus of model forecast soundings for Monday/21Z to the east of the dryline have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming favorable for strong tornadoes. The potential for strong tornadoes will be associated with the more dominant supercells that remain semi-discrete. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes is expected from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Large hail will also be possible with supercells. The potential for wind damage will become likely with supercells, and will be increasingly possible with line-segments during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will move into the southern Plains during the evening, as the associated dryline and low-level jet shift eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. Ahead of the dryline, a nearly continuous line of severe storms is expected in the evening, which will likely be associated with tornadoes and wind damage. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large hail, and wind damage, are likely on Monday and Monday night from the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough in the Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet translating southeastward through California within the western part of the system. The jet max will move through the base of the upper-level trough tonight and eject northeastward into the southern Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will develop Monday morning across northwest Texas, with the low deepening and moving northeastward across western Oklahoma during the day. To the south of the low, a dryline from southwest Oklahoma into west-central Texas will sharpen and move eastward. A moist airmass will be in place to the east of the dryline with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. The moist airmass will extend from the southern Plains northeastward into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level moisture, combined with lift associated with the approaching upper-level system, along with instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Over the top of the moist airmass, a broad belt of strong low-level flow will maintain moisture advection throughout the day ahead of the approaching trough. Scattered strong to potentially severe storms are expected during the morning from near the dryline in west-central Texas, eastward into the Ark-La-Tex near the axis of a low-level jet. As the system moves into the southern High Plains during the afternoon, large-scale ascent will become more focused, and the low-level jet will strengthen over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. In response, several line segments will organize and increase in intensity from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. A consensus of model forecast soundings for Monday/21Z to the east of the dryline have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming favorable for strong tornadoes. The potential for strong tornadoes will be associated with the more dominant supercells that remain semi-discrete. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes is expected from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Large hail will also be possible with supercells. The potential for wind damage will become likely with supercells, and will be increasingly possible with line-segments during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will move into the southern Plains during the evening, as the associated dryline and low-level jet shift eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. Ahead of the dryline, a nearly continuous line of severe storms is expected in the evening, which will likely be associated with tornadoes and wind damage. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large hail, and wind damage, are likely on Monday and Monday night from the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough in the Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet translating southeastward through California within the western part of the system. The jet max will move through the base of the upper-level trough tonight and eject northeastward into the southern Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will develop Monday morning across northwest Texas, with the low deepening and moving northeastward across western Oklahoma during the day. To the south of the low, a dryline from southwest Oklahoma into west-central Texas will sharpen and move eastward. A moist airmass will be in place to the east of the dryline with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. The moist airmass will extend from the southern Plains northeastward into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level moisture, combined with lift associated with the approaching upper-level system, along with instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Over the top of the moist airmass, a broad belt of strong low-level flow will maintain moisture advection throughout the day ahead of the approaching trough. Scattered strong to potentially severe storms are expected during the morning from near the dryline in west-central Texas, eastward into the Ark-La-Tex near the axis of a low-level jet. As the system moves into the southern High Plains during the afternoon, large-scale ascent will become more focused, and the low-level jet will strengthen over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. In response, several line segments will organize and increase in intensity from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. A consensus of model forecast soundings for Monday/21Z to the east of the dryline have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming favorable for strong tornadoes. The potential for strong tornadoes will be associated with the more dominant supercells that remain semi-discrete. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes is expected from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Large hail will also be possible with supercells. The potential for wind damage will become likely with supercells, and will be increasingly possible with line-segments during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will move into the southern Plains during the evening, as the associated dryline and low-level jet shift eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. Ahead of the dryline, a nearly continuous line of severe storms is expected in the evening, which will likely be associated with tornadoes and wind damage. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large hail, and wind damage, are likely on Monday and Monday night from the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough in the Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet translating southeastward through California within the western part of the system. The jet max will move through the base of the upper-level trough tonight and eject northeastward into the southern Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will develop Monday morning across northwest Texas, with the low deepening and moving northeastward across western Oklahoma during the day. To the south of the low, a dryline from southwest Oklahoma into west-central Texas will sharpen and move eastward. A moist airmass will be in place to the east of the dryline with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. The moist airmass will extend from the southern Plains northeastward into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level moisture, combined with lift associated with the approaching upper-level system, along with instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Over the top of the moist airmass, a broad belt of strong low-level flow will maintain moisture advection throughout the day ahead of the approaching trough. Scattered strong to potentially severe storms are expected during the morning from near the dryline in west-central Texas, eastward into the Ark-La-Tex near the axis of a low-level jet. As the system moves into the southern High Plains during the afternoon, large-scale ascent will become more focused, and the low-level jet will strengthen over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. In response, several line segments will organize and increase in intensity from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. A consensus of model forecast soundings for Monday/21Z to the east of the dryline have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming favorable for strong tornadoes. The potential for strong tornadoes will be associated with the more dominant supercells that remain semi-discrete. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes is expected from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Large hail will also be possible with supercells. The potential for wind damage will become likely with supercells, and will be increasingly possible with line-segments during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will move into the southern Plains during the evening, as the associated dryline and low-level jet shift eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. Ahead of the dryline, a nearly continuous line of severe storms is expected in the evening, which will likely be associated with tornadoes and wind damage. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large hail, and wind damage, are likely on Monday and Monday night from the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough in the Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet translating southeastward through California within the western part of the system. The jet max will move through the base of the upper-level trough tonight and eject northeastward into the southern Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will develop Monday morning across northwest Texas, with the low deepening and moving northeastward across western Oklahoma during the day. To the south of the low, a dryline from southwest Oklahoma into west-central Texas will sharpen and move eastward. A moist airmass will be in place to the east of the dryline with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. The moist airmass will extend from the southern Plains northeastward into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level moisture, combined with lift associated with the approaching upper-level system, along with instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Over the top of the moist airmass, a broad belt of strong low-level flow will maintain moisture advection throughout the day ahead of the approaching trough. Scattered strong to potentially severe storms are expected during the morning from near the dryline in west-central Texas, eastward into the Ark-La-Tex near the axis of a low-level jet. As the system moves into the southern High Plains during the afternoon, large-scale ascent will become more focused, and the low-level jet will strengthen over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. In response, several line segments will organize and increase in intensity from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. A consensus of model forecast soundings for Monday/21Z to the east of the dryline have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming favorable for strong tornadoes. The potential for strong tornadoes will be associated with the more dominant supercells that remain semi-discrete. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes is expected from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Large hail will also be possible with supercells. The potential for wind damage will become likely with supercells, and will be increasingly possible with line-segments during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will move into the southern Plains during the evening, as the associated dryline and low-level jet shift eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. Ahead of the dryline, a nearly continuous line of severe storms is expected in the evening, which will likely be associated with tornadoes and wind damage. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/03/2024 Read more

MD 2190 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2190 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and western North TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031551Z - 031745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage and intensity through the morning over parts of central and western North TX. A mix of supercells and linear segments may support a risk for all hazards. There remains significant uncertainty on the timing and intensity of the the threat, but the possibility of a WW is being monitored. DISCUSSION...As of 1545 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed intensifying thunderstorms along a dryline across west-central TX. A second, semi-elevated cluster was also ongoing northwest of Killeen. Ascent, in the form of a broad area of height falls and weak DPVA should continue to overspread the Southern Plains this morning and afternoon ahead of a deepening upper trough. South of a well-defined outflow boundary/quasi warm front near the Red River, additional storm development appears likely over the next several hours. Surface temperatures in the mid 70s with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70F are allowing 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates. Weak inhibition is slowly diminishing with diffuse diurnal heating/low-level advection warming the air mass. As the upper trough approaches, moderate deep-layer shear should intensify, with 45-60 kt favorable for organized storms in the form of a mix of supercells and line segments. Additional storm development is likely south of the outflow along the dryline and potentially across the warm sector through this morning. As storms slowly mature, a risk damaging winds and hail appears likely given the favorable shear and buoyancy. The tornado threat is more nebulous, but somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs and stronger low-level shear near the effective warm front could support a risk for a few tornadoes. Eventually, one or more clusters/QLCS should emerge as upscale growth of numerous storms takes place. The primary uncertainty this morning is how quickly storm mature. Some CAM solutions are quite aggressive, suggesting storms quickly maturing over the next 1-2 hours. Others are more gradual with the greatest threat later this afternoon. Regardless, the environment is becoming more favorable for an all hazards severe risk this morning. The need for a WW is being evaluated. ..Lyons/Hart.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 34439989 34499941 34359898 34249849 33929744 33129693 32669708 31559774 30969838 30569940 30580063 30660219 32190150 33290110 34230007 34439989 Read more