SPC Nov 3, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

8 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... NHC is forecasting a high probability of TC formation in the Caribbean by D2. Predictability is low along the FL Gulf Coast vicinity regarding downstream tornado potential during D4-5, with large spread in guidance at this time frame and beyond. Meanwhile, modified moisture return will ensue on D4-5 over the southern High Plains, in advance of a shortwave trough evolving into a cutoff low across the Southwest. Given an initially inverted surface trough, severe potential should be limited/mesoscale-focused on D5/Thursday. With an emerging consensus of ensemble guidance suggesting acceleration of the upper low onto the Great Plains, severe potential may increase next weekend with broadening of the warm-moist sector in the central states. Predictability is far too low to warrant consideration of greater than 15 percent areas yet. Read more

SPC Nov 3, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

8 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... NHC is forecasting a high probability of TC formation in the Caribbean by D2. Predictability is low along the FL Gulf Coast vicinity regarding downstream tornado potential during D4-5, with large spread in guidance at this time frame and beyond. Meanwhile, modified moisture return will ensue on D4-5 over the southern High Plains, in advance of a shortwave trough evolving into a cutoff low across the Southwest. Given an initially inverted surface trough, severe potential should be limited/mesoscale-focused on D5/Thursday. With an emerging consensus of ensemble guidance suggesting acceleration of the upper low onto the Great Plains, severe potential may increase next weekend with broadening of the warm-moist sector in the central states. Predictability is far too low to warrant consideration of greater than 15 percent areas yet. Read more

SPC MD 2187

8 months 3 weeks ago
MD 2187 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 700... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2187 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...Central and Eastern OK Concerning...Tornado Watch 700... Valid 030754Z - 030930Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 700 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes, both within cells ahead of the convective line and within the convective line itself, will persist for at least the next few hours. Tornado Watch 700 was recently issued across central and eastern Oklahoma to address this threat. DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells have matured within the open warm sector across central OK. This includes the supercell over Stephens County, which had a rotational velocity over 65 kt for several scans within the last 25 minutes. The maturing of these cells corresponded with the strengthening of the surface winds by 5 to 10 kt within the warm sector, with southeasterly winds now gusting 20 to 25 kt. The longevity of these discrete cells will be limited by the approaching convective line, but the persistence of strong low-level flow suggests the tornado threat will likely persist within the line itself as it continues eastward. Given this continued threat for tornadoes in both discrete cells ahead of the line and QLCS circulations within the line, a Tornado Watch was recently issued for central and eastern OK. The airmass ahead of the line is expected to remain at least modestly unstable into eastern OK, justifying its inclusion in the recent watch. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34999799 36139632 36049467 33859627 33829841 34999799 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 700 Status Reports

8 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0700 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 700 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SPS TO 40 SE OKC TO 35 S PNC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2187 ..MOSIER..11/03/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 700 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-005-013-019-021-029-037-041-049-061-063-067-069-081-085- 091-095-097-099-101-107-111-117-119-121-123-125-131-133-135-143- 145-031040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHEROKEE COAL CREEK DELAWARE GARVIN HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LINCOLN LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER TXC077-031040- TX Read more

SPC MD 2186

8 months 3 weeks ago
MD 2186 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699... FOR FAR NORTHWEST TX...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2186 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...Far Northwest TX...Southern/Central/East-Central OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699... Valid 030637Z - 030830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for all severe hazards, including a tornado or two, will continue from far northwest Texas across southern and central Oklahoma. Convective trends are being monitored across east-central Oklahoma for potential watch issuance later tonight. DISCUSSION...A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues from far northwest TX into much of western and central OK. The strongest storms thus far have been confined to the warm sector that exists to the east of the more coherent convective line extending from southwest OK into southwest TX and to the south of a warm front that extends from roughly southern Kiowa County northeastward through Cleveland County before turning more eastward in Muskogee County. This warm front demarcates the more rain-cooled air to the north, where temperatures in the low to mid 60s, from the warmer, more modified air to the south, where temperatures are in the upper 60s/low 70s. Widespread rainfall is expected to continue reinforcing this boundary, with very minimal northward progression anticipated over the next several hours. Thunderstorm development will likely continue within this warm sector, initiated by persistent warm-air advection and supported by 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Moderate to strong vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear from 40 to 50 kt) will persist across the warm sector as well, supporting supercell development with any discrete updrafts that are able to mature. Despite poor lapse rates, vertical shear is still strong enough to support large hail and strong downdrafts. Additionally, recent TLX VAD data sampled more than enough low-level curvature to support tornadogenesis, with the area along the warm front likely a local maximum in tornado potential due to increased low-level vorticity. Primary factor limiting a greater tornado risk is potential for storm interaction. Some severe threat may extend into more of east-central OK later tonight. Currently the airmass over this region is less buoyant, and updrafts have not been able to mature. However, some increase in buoyancy is possible and convective trends being monitored for possible watch issuance. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 34829942 35699698 35849509 34339539 33189951 34829942 Read more

SPC Nov 3, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

8 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 3, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

8 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 3, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

8 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 3, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

8 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 3, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

8 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 3, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

8 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 3, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

8 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 3, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

8 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 3, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

8 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 3, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

8 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

8 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

8 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

8 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more