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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0701 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0701 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0701 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0701 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 3 17:46:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large hail, and wind damage, are likely on Monday and Monday night from the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough in the Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet translating southeastward through California within the western part of the system. The jet max will move through the base of the upper-level trough tonight and eject northeastward into the southern Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will develop Monday morning across northwest Texas, with the low deepening and moving northeastward across western Oklahoma during the day. To the south of the low, a dryline from southwest Oklahoma into west-central Texas will sharpen and move eastward. A moist airmass will be in place to the east of the dryline with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. The moist airmass will extend from the southern Plains northeastward into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level moisture, combined with lift associated with the approaching upper-level system, along with instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Over the top of the moist airmass, a broad belt of strong low-level flow will maintain moisture advection throughout the day ahead of the approaching trough. Scattered strong to potentially severe storms are expected during the morning from near the dryline in west-central Texas, eastward into the Ark-La-Tex near the axis of a low-level jet. As the system moves into the southern High Plains during the afternoon, large-scale ascent will become more focused, and the low-level jet will strengthen over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. In response, several line segments will organize and increase in intensity from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. A consensus of model forecast soundings for Monday/21Z to the east of the dryline have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming favorable for strong tornadoes. The potential for strong tornadoes will be associated with the more dominant supercells that remain semi-discrete. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes is expected from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Large hail will also be possible with supercells. The potential for wind damage will become likely with supercells, and will be increasingly possible with line-segments during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will move into the southern Plains during the evening, as the associated dryline and low-level jet shift eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. Ahead of the dryline, a nearly continuous line of severe storms is expected in the evening, which will likely be associated with tornadoes and wind damage. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large hail, and wind damage, are likely on Monday and Monday night from the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough in the Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet translating southeastward through California within the western part of the system. The jet max will move through the base of the upper-level trough tonight and eject northeastward into the southern Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will develop Monday morning across northwest Texas, with the low deepening and moving northeastward across western Oklahoma during the day. To the south of the low, a dryline from southwest Oklahoma into west-central Texas will sharpen and move eastward. A moist airmass will be in place to the east of the dryline with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. The moist airmass will extend from the southern Plains northeastward into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level moisture, combined with lift associated with the approaching upper-level system, along with instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Over the top of the moist airmass, a broad belt of strong low-level flow will maintain moisture advection throughout the day ahead of the approaching trough. Scattered strong to potentially severe storms are expected during the morning from near the dryline in west-central Texas, eastward into the Ark-La-Tex near the axis of a low-level jet. As the system moves into the southern High Plains during the afternoon, large-scale ascent will become more focused, and the low-level jet will strengthen over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. In response, several line segments will organize and increase in intensity from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. A consensus of model forecast soundings for Monday/21Z to the east of the dryline have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming favorable for strong tornadoes. The potential for strong tornadoes will be associated with the more dominant supercells that remain semi-discrete. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes is expected from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Large hail will also be possible with supercells. The potential for wind damage will become likely with supercells, and will be increasingly possible with line-segments during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will move into the southern Plains during the evening, as the associated dryline and low-level jet shift eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. Ahead of the dryline, a nearly continuous line of severe storms is expected in the evening, which will likely be associated with tornadoes and wind damage. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large hail, and wind damage, are likely on Monday and Monday night from the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough in the Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet translating southeastward through California within the western part of the system. The jet max will move through the base of the upper-level trough tonight and eject northeastward into the southern Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will develop Monday morning across northwest Texas, with the low deepening and moving northeastward across western Oklahoma during the day. To the south of the low, a dryline from southwest Oklahoma into west-central Texas will sharpen and move eastward. A moist airmass will be in place to the east of the dryline with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. The moist airmass will extend from the southern Plains northeastward into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level moisture, combined with lift associated with the approaching upper-level system, along with instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Over the top of the moist airmass, a broad belt of strong low-level flow will maintain moisture advection throughout the day ahead of the approaching trough. Scattered strong to potentially severe storms are expected during the morning from near the dryline in west-central Texas, eastward into the Ark-La-Tex near the axis of a low-level jet. As the system moves into the southern High Plains during the afternoon, large-scale ascent will become more focused, and the low-level jet will strengthen over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. In response, several line segments will organize and increase in intensity from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. A consensus of model forecast soundings for Monday/21Z to the east of the dryline have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming favorable for strong tornadoes. The potential for strong tornadoes will be associated with the more dominant supercells that remain semi-discrete. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes is expected from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Large hail will also be possible with supercells. The potential for wind damage will become likely with supercells, and will be increasingly possible with line-segments during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will move into the southern Plains during the evening, as the associated dryline and low-level jet shift eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. Ahead of the dryline, a nearly continuous line of severe storms is expected in the evening, which will likely be associated with tornadoes and wind damage. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large hail, and wind damage, are likely on Monday and Monday night from the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough in the Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet translating southeastward through California within the western part of the system. The jet max will move through the base of the upper-level trough tonight and eject northeastward into the southern Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will develop Monday morning across northwest Texas, with the low deepening and moving northeastward across western Oklahoma during the day. To the south of the low, a dryline from southwest Oklahoma into west-central Texas will sharpen and move eastward. A moist airmass will be in place to the east of the dryline with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. The moist airmass will extend from the southern Plains northeastward into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level moisture, combined with lift associated with the approaching upper-level system, along with instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Over the top of the moist airmass, a broad belt of strong low-level flow will maintain moisture advection throughout the day ahead of the approaching trough. Scattered strong to potentially severe storms are expected during the morning from near the dryline in west-central Texas, eastward into the Ark-La-Tex near the axis of a low-level jet. As the system moves into the southern High Plains during the afternoon, large-scale ascent will become more focused, and the low-level jet will strengthen over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. In response, several line segments will organize and increase in intensity from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. A consensus of model forecast soundings for Monday/21Z to the east of the dryline have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming favorable for strong tornadoes. The potential for strong tornadoes will be associated with the more dominant supercells that remain semi-discrete. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes is expected from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Large hail will also be possible with supercells. The potential for wind damage will become likely with supercells, and will be increasingly possible with line-segments during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will move into the southern Plains during the evening, as the associated dryline and low-level jet shift eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. Ahead of the dryline, a nearly continuous line of severe storms is expected in the evening, which will likely be associated with tornadoes and wind damage. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large hail, and wind damage, are likely on Monday and Monday night from the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough in the Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet translating southeastward through California within the western part of the system. The jet max will move through the base of the upper-level trough tonight and eject northeastward into the southern Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will develop Monday morning across northwest Texas, with the low deepening and moving northeastward across western Oklahoma during the day. To the south of the low, a dryline from southwest Oklahoma into west-central Texas will sharpen and move eastward. A moist airmass will be in place to the east of the dryline with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. The moist airmass will extend from the southern Plains northeastward into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level moisture, combined with lift associated with the approaching upper-level system, along with instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Over the top of the moist airmass, a broad belt of strong low-level flow will maintain moisture advection throughout the day ahead of the approaching trough. Scattered strong to potentially severe storms are expected during the morning from near the dryline in west-central Texas, eastward into the Ark-La-Tex near the axis of a low-level jet. As the system moves into the southern High Plains during the afternoon, large-scale ascent will become more focused, and the low-level jet will strengthen over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. In response, several line segments will organize and increase in intensity from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. A consensus of model forecast soundings for Monday/21Z to the east of the dryline have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming favorable for strong tornadoes. The potential for strong tornadoes will be associated with the more dominant supercells that remain semi-discrete. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes is expected from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Large hail will also be possible with supercells. The potential for wind damage will become likely with supercells, and will be increasingly possible with line-segments during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will move into the southern Plains during the evening, as the associated dryline and low-level jet shift eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. Ahead of the dryline, a nearly continuous line of severe storms is expected in the evening, which will likely be associated with tornadoes and wind damage. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large hail, and wind damage, are likely on Monday and Monday night from the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough in the Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet translating southeastward through California within the western part of the system. The jet max will move through the base of the upper-level trough tonight and eject northeastward into the southern Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will develop Monday morning across northwest Texas, with the low deepening and moving northeastward across western Oklahoma during the day. To the south of the low, a dryline from southwest Oklahoma into west-central Texas will sharpen and move eastward. A moist airmass will be in place to the east of the dryline with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. The moist airmass will extend from the southern Plains northeastward into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level moisture, combined with lift associated with the approaching upper-level system, along with instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Over the top of the moist airmass, a broad belt of strong low-level flow will maintain moisture advection throughout the day ahead of the approaching trough. Scattered strong to potentially severe storms are expected during the morning from near the dryline in west-central Texas, eastward into the Ark-La-Tex near the axis of a low-level jet. As the system moves into the southern High Plains during the afternoon, large-scale ascent will become more focused, and the low-level jet will strengthen over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. In response, several line segments will organize and increase in intensity from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. A consensus of model forecast soundings for Monday/21Z to the east of the dryline have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming favorable for strong tornadoes. The potential for strong tornadoes will be associated with the more dominant supercells that remain semi-discrete. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes is expected from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Large hail will also be possible with supercells. The potential for wind damage will become likely with supercells, and will be increasingly possible with line-segments during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will move into the southern Plains during the evening, as the associated dryline and low-level jet shift eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. Ahead of the dryline, a nearly continuous line of severe storms is expected in the evening, which will likely be associated with tornadoes and wind damage. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more