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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains later tonight. ...Eastern NM into western TX... Storms are expected to form over eastern NM between 03-06Z, expanding in coverage and spreading into the western TX Panhandle and South Plains late. Isolated strong storms are also anticipated extending southwestward toward El Paso TX. Marginal hail or wind, and locally heavy rain will be possible. See the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more information. ..Jewell.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains later tonight. ...Eastern NM into western TX... Storms are expected to form over eastern NM between 03-06Z, expanding in coverage and spreading into the western TX Panhandle and South Plains late. Isolated strong storms are also anticipated extending southwestward toward El Paso TX. Marginal hail or wind, and locally heavy rain will be possible. See the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more information. ..Jewell.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains later tonight. ...Eastern NM into western TX... Storms are expected to form over eastern NM between 03-06Z, expanding in coverage and spreading into the western TX Panhandle and South Plains late. Isolated strong storms are also anticipated extending southwestward toward El Paso TX. Marginal hail or wind, and locally heavy rain will be possible. See the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more information. ..Jewell.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains later tonight. ...Eastern NM into western TX... Storms are expected to form over eastern NM between 03-06Z, expanding in coverage and spreading into the western TX Panhandle and South Plains late. Isolated strong storms are also anticipated extending southwestward toward El Paso TX. Marginal hail or wind, and locally heavy rain will be possible. See the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more information. ..Jewell.. 11/02/2024 Read more

The South Dakota wheat crop was variable across the state. In some places, the seed had not germinated, with the seed in dry dirt. In other areas, the stand of wheat was good. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), Nov 1, 2024

No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 1 23:54:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 1 23:54:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will deepen across the Interior West on Sunday and will de-amplify while ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week, when another mid-level trough will amplify across the western U.S. As both mid-level troughs amplify, surface high pressure will build across the Interior West as surface cyclone development takes place across the Plains on Sunday and mid-week. On Days 3 and 6 (Sunday and Wednesday), medium-range guidance shows deep-layer northwesterly flow overspreading California as the backside of the mid-level trough coincides with a surface pressure gradient across the state. Dry and breezy conditions may occur across northern parts of the northern California Valley region, though questions regarding marginal RH dips and fuel receptiveness preclude Critical probabilities in this region. Locally dry and breezy conditions may also occur over the higher terrain-favoring areas around the Los Angeles area Sunday evening into Monday morning. However, the relatively greater threat for dry offshore surface flow in this region may occur on Day 6/Wednesday, when a stronger surface gradient may develop, necessitating the introduction of 40 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will deepen across the Interior West on Sunday and will de-amplify while ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week, when another mid-level trough will amplify across the western U.S. As both mid-level troughs amplify, surface high pressure will build across the Interior West as surface cyclone development takes place across the Plains on Sunday and mid-week. On Days 3 and 6 (Sunday and Wednesday), medium-range guidance shows deep-layer northwesterly flow overspreading California as the backside of the mid-level trough coincides with a surface pressure gradient across the state. Dry and breezy conditions may occur across northern parts of the northern California Valley region, though questions regarding marginal RH dips and fuel receptiveness preclude Critical probabilities in this region. Locally dry and breezy conditions may also occur over the higher terrain-favoring areas around the Los Angeles area Sunday evening into Monday morning. However, the relatively greater threat for dry offshore surface flow in this region may occur on Day 6/Wednesday, when a stronger surface gradient may develop, necessitating the introduction of 40 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will deepen across the Interior West on Sunday and will de-amplify while ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week, when another mid-level trough will amplify across the western U.S. As both mid-level troughs amplify, surface high pressure will build across the Interior West as surface cyclone development takes place across the Plains on Sunday and mid-week. On Days 3 and 6 (Sunday and Wednesday), medium-range guidance shows deep-layer northwesterly flow overspreading California as the backside of the mid-level trough coincides with a surface pressure gradient across the state. Dry and breezy conditions may occur across northern parts of the northern California Valley region, though questions regarding marginal RH dips and fuel receptiveness preclude Critical probabilities in this region. Locally dry and breezy conditions may also occur over the higher terrain-favoring areas around the Los Angeles area Sunday evening into Monday morning. However, the relatively greater threat for dry offshore surface flow in this region may occur on Day 6/Wednesday, when a stronger surface gradient may develop, necessitating the introduction of 40 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will deepen across the Interior West on Sunday and will de-amplify while ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week, when another mid-level trough will amplify across the western U.S. As both mid-level troughs amplify, surface high pressure will build across the Interior West as surface cyclone development takes place across the Plains on Sunday and mid-week. On Days 3 and 6 (Sunday and Wednesday), medium-range guidance shows deep-layer northwesterly flow overspreading California as the backside of the mid-level trough coincides with a surface pressure gradient across the state. Dry and breezy conditions may occur across northern parts of the northern California Valley region, though questions regarding marginal RH dips and fuel receptiveness preclude Critical probabilities in this region. Locally dry and breezy conditions may also occur over the higher terrain-favoring areas around the Los Angeles area Sunday evening into Monday morning. However, the relatively greater threat for dry offshore surface flow in this region may occur on Day 6/Wednesday, when a stronger surface gradient may develop, necessitating the introduction of 40 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will deepen across the Interior West on Sunday and will de-amplify while ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week, when another mid-level trough will amplify across the western U.S. As both mid-level troughs amplify, surface high pressure will build across the Interior West as surface cyclone development takes place across the Plains on Sunday and mid-week. On Days 3 and 6 (Sunday and Wednesday), medium-range guidance shows deep-layer northwesterly flow overspreading California as the backside of the mid-level trough coincides with a surface pressure gradient across the state. Dry and breezy conditions may occur across northern parts of the northern California Valley region, though questions regarding marginal RH dips and fuel receptiveness preclude Critical probabilities in this region. Locally dry and breezy conditions may also occur over the higher terrain-favoring areas around the Los Angeles area Sunday evening into Monday morning. However, the relatively greater threat for dry offshore surface flow in this region may occur on Day 6/Wednesday, when a stronger surface gradient may develop, necessitating the introduction of 40 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will deepen across the Interior West on Sunday and will de-amplify while ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week, when another mid-level trough will amplify across the western U.S. As both mid-level troughs amplify, surface high pressure will build across the Interior West as surface cyclone development takes place across the Plains on Sunday and mid-week. On Days 3 and 6 (Sunday and Wednesday), medium-range guidance shows deep-layer northwesterly flow overspreading California as the backside of the mid-level trough coincides with a surface pressure gradient across the state. Dry and breezy conditions may occur across northern parts of the northern California Valley region, though questions regarding marginal RH dips and fuel receptiveness preclude Critical probabilities in this region. Locally dry and breezy conditions may also occur over the higher terrain-favoring areas around the Los Angeles area Sunday evening into Monday morning. However, the relatively greater threat for dry offshore surface flow in this region may occur on Day 6/Wednesday, when a stronger surface gradient may develop, necessitating the introduction of 40 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. Read more