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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OK TO THE TX BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will gradually progress east onto the Prairie Provinces and across the Desert Southwest/northwest Mexico. Multiple upper jet streaks are consistently progged ahead of the trough over the Great Plains. Mid-level southwesterlies will also strengthen, but the fastest flow will remain on the backside of the trough through Sunday afternoon. This jetlet will progress into the base of the trough on Sunday night, coincident with a vigorous shortwave impulse. Initial surface cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains and track into MN/IA by 12Z Monday. Additional cyclogenesis will occur Sunday night across the Pecos Valley into western north TX. ...Central to southern Great Plains... A complex setup remains evident during the D2 period with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A decaying MCS should be ongoing across parts of the Ozarks southwestward into north TX, with outflow reinforcing a baroclinic zone across the Red River region. Guidance is highly consistent in suggesting the next round of west TX convection developing by late morning. This activity should intensify and increase in coverage midday through the afternoon as it tracks along the baroclinic zone that amplifies with differential surface heating. CAMs consistently indicate quick upscale growth to an organized linear cluster, with embedded supercell structures amid strong mid/upper southwesterlies. Low-level shear will initially be modest, and does not appear to be favorably timed with the relatively early upscale growth. Still, this potential MCS will eventually impinge on greater low-level SRH as it tracks towards and east of the I-35 corridor, yielding some embedded tornado risk. A final round of strong to severe convection should develop overnight across west TX as forcing for ascent increases again ahead of the aforementioned wave. Across these multiple rounds, a mixed/all-hazards threat will be possible. A separate area of low-level warm advection-driven convection may develop across the northeast TX vicinity during the afternoon. Weak mid-level lapse rates and convection along the instability gradient will probably temper the overall threat. But adequate low-level SRH will exist for a low-probability, all-hazards threat. Convective development along the dryline near the central High Plains cyclone in western KS is uncertain. The deleterious effects of persistent OK/north TX convection should yield a rather confined and limited MLCAPE plume in KS. Conditionally, the environment will be favorable for discrete supercells with highly elongated mid/upper hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. A sustained supercell or two might become established in the 00-03Z time frame. Otherwise, some later evening elevated hail risk may occur downstream into NE and north KS. ..Grams.. 11/02/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020530
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Nov 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Thirteen-E, located over the western portion of the
eastern Pacific basin.

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
Satellite data indicate a broad area of low pressure has formed well
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico, with some recent
increase in disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Gradual
development of this system is possible through the early to middle
part of next week while the system drifts generally eastward to
east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

MD 2179 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2179 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Areas affected...Southern High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 020330Z - 020530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Hail may accompany the strongest storms across the southern High Plains tonight. DISCUSSION...Low-latitude short-wave trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over eastern AZ, extending into northern Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Rockies and LLJ appears to be responding to this short wave. 1km wind field is increasing across western TX into the TX South Plains. This is forcing higher PW air mass into southeast NM where boundary-layer upslope flow is contributing to recent uptick in convection, especially over Eddy County NM. Several discrete updrafts have evolved across southeast NM, and more recently as far north as CVS. With time, additional storms should develop along this corridor as low-level warm advection will be focused into this portion of the southern Plains. At this time it appears hail is the primary concern and isolated severe hail is possible. However, hail coverage/size is not currently expected to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. Will continue to monitor this region. ..Darrow/Hart.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32560480 34970380 34880255 32210330 32560480 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible later today and tonight primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the western CONUS will become highly amplified, with strong cooling aloft overspreading the Great Basin and Four Corners states. Southwest winds will increase across the Plains, with a weak lee trough developing along the length of the High Plains. Increasing southerly surface winds will bring a moist air mass northward across the southern Plains, resulting in widespread rain and thunderstorms primary from northwest TX across OK and into KS. Elsewhere, a large upper high will maintain relatively dry conditions over the eastern CONUS. ...Parts of western TX and southeast NM into southwest OK... Substantial rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from southeast NM into parts of the South Plains/TX Panhandle early, in a zone of moisture advection. An unstable air mass will already be in place with around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. Outflow boundaries may exist relatively early in the day, and may limit northward extent of the severe risk initially. However, at least marginal hail could extend northward into the cooler surface air mass from the TX Panhandle into western OK. The greatest severe risk appears to be with diurnal activity that will form along the eastern fringe of the strongest heating coming out of far west TX, and, just on the south side of any aggregate outflow boundaries extending across northwest TX and into southwest OK. Increasing SRH, especially during the evening, may favor a couple tornadoes with the more discrete cells away from the larger heavy rain mass (see WPC Excessive Rainfall products for more information). Otherwise, occasional strong to damaging gusts may occur with any bowing structures traveling northeastward along the composite outflow/front as far east as central OK through the evening and overnight. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible later today and tonight primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the western CONUS will become highly amplified, with strong cooling aloft overspreading the Great Basin and Four Corners states. Southwest winds will increase across the Plains, with a weak lee trough developing along the length of the High Plains. Increasing southerly surface winds will bring a moist air mass northward across the southern Plains, resulting in widespread rain and thunderstorms primary from northwest TX across OK and into KS. Elsewhere, a large upper high will maintain relatively dry conditions over the eastern CONUS. ...Parts of western TX and southeast NM into southwest OK... Substantial rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from southeast NM into parts of the South Plains/TX Panhandle early, in a zone of moisture advection. An unstable air mass will already be in place with around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. Outflow boundaries may exist relatively early in the day, and may limit northward extent of the severe risk initially. However, at least marginal hail could extend northward into the cooler surface air mass from the TX Panhandle into western OK. The greatest severe risk appears to be with diurnal activity that will form along the eastern fringe of the strongest heating coming out of far west TX, and, just on the south side of any aggregate outflow boundaries extending across northwest TX and into southwest OK. Increasing SRH, especially during the evening, may favor a couple tornadoes with the more discrete cells away from the larger heavy rain mass (see WPC Excessive Rainfall products for more information). Otherwise, occasional strong to damaging gusts may occur with any bowing structures traveling northeastward along the composite outflow/front as far east as central OK through the evening and overnight. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible later today and tonight primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the western CONUS will become highly amplified, with strong cooling aloft overspreading the Great Basin and Four Corners states. Southwest winds will increase across the Plains, with a weak lee trough developing along the length of the High Plains. Increasing southerly surface winds will bring a moist air mass northward across the southern Plains, resulting in widespread rain and thunderstorms primary from northwest TX across OK and into KS. Elsewhere, a large upper high will maintain relatively dry conditions over the eastern CONUS. ...Parts of western TX and southeast NM into southwest OK... Substantial rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from southeast NM into parts of the South Plains/TX Panhandle early, in a zone of moisture advection. An unstable air mass will already be in place with around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. Outflow boundaries may exist relatively early in the day, and may limit northward extent of the severe risk initially. However, at least marginal hail could extend northward into the cooler surface air mass from the TX Panhandle into western OK. The greatest severe risk appears to be with diurnal activity that will form along the eastern fringe of the strongest heating coming out of far west TX, and, just on the south side of any aggregate outflow boundaries extending across northwest TX and into southwest OK. Increasing SRH, especially during the evening, may favor a couple tornadoes with the more discrete cells away from the larger heavy rain mass (see WPC Excessive Rainfall products for more information). Otherwise, occasional strong to damaging gusts may occur with any bowing structures traveling northeastward along the composite outflow/front as far east as central OK through the evening and overnight. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible later today and tonight primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the western CONUS will become highly amplified, with strong cooling aloft overspreading the Great Basin and Four Corners states. Southwest winds will increase across the Plains, with a weak lee trough developing along the length of the High Plains. Increasing southerly surface winds will bring a moist air mass northward across the southern Plains, resulting in widespread rain and thunderstorms primary from northwest TX across OK and into KS. Elsewhere, a large upper high will maintain relatively dry conditions over the eastern CONUS. ...Parts of western TX and southeast NM into southwest OK... Substantial rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from southeast NM into parts of the South Plains/TX Panhandle early, in a zone of moisture advection. An unstable air mass will already be in place with around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. Outflow boundaries may exist relatively early in the day, and may limit northward extent of the severe risk initially. However, at least marginal hail could extend northward into the cooler surface air mass from the TX Panhandle into western OK. The greatest severe risk appears to be with diurnal activity that will form along the eastern fringe of the strongest heating coming out of far west TX, and, just on the south side of any aggregate outflow boundaries extending across northwest TX and into southwest OK. Increasing SRH, especially during the evening, may favor a couple tornadoes with the more discrete cells away from the larger heavy rain mass (see WPC Excessive Rainfall products for more information). Otherwise, occasional strong to damaging gusts may occur with any bowing structures traveling northeastward along the composite outflow/front as far east as central OK through the evening and overnight. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible later today and tonight primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the western CONUS will become highly amplified, with strong cooling aloft overspreading the Great Basin and Four Corners states. Southwest winds will increase across the Plains, with a weak lee trough developing along the length of the High Plains. Increasing southerly surface winds will bring a moist air mass northward across the southern Plains, resulting in widespread rain and thunderstorms primary from northwest TX across OK and into KS. Elsewhere, a large upper high will maintain relatively dry conditions over the eastern CONUS. ...Parts of western TX and southeast NM into southwest OK... Substantial rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from southeast NM into parts of the South Plains/TX Panhandle early, in a zone of moisture advection. An unstable air mass will already be in place with around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. Outflow boundaries may exist relatively early in the day, and may limit northward extent of the severe risk initially. However, at least marginal hail could extend northward into the cooler surface air mass from the TX Panhandle into western OK. The greatest severe risk appears to be with diurnal activity that will form along the eastern fringe of the strongest heating coming out of far west TX, and, just on the south side of any aggregate outflow boundaries extending across northwest TX and into southwest OK. Increasing SRH, especially during the evening, may favor a couple tornadoes with the more discrete cells away from the larger heavy rain mass (see WPC Excessive Rainfall products for more information). Otherwise, occasional strong to damaging gusts may occur with any bowing structures traveling northeastward along the composite outflow/front as far east as central OK through the evening and overnight. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible later today and tonight primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the western CONUS will become highly amplified, with strong cooling aloft overspreading the Great Basin and Four Corners states. Southwest winds will increase across the Plains, with a weak lee trough developing along the length of the High Plains. Increasing southerly surface winds will bring a moist air mass northward across the southern Plains, resulting in widespread rain and thunderstorms primary from northwest TX across OK and into KS. Elsewhere, a large upper high will maintain relatively dry conditions over the eastern CONUS. ...Parts of western TX and southeast NM into southwest OK... Substantial rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from southeast NM into parts of the South Plains/TX Panhandle early, in a zone of moisture advection. An unstable air mass will already be in place with around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. Outflow boundaries may exist relatively early in the day, and may limit northward extent of the severe risk initially. However, at least marginal hail could extend northward into the cooler surface air mass from the TX Panhandle into western OK. The greatest severe risk appears to be with diurnal activity that will form along the eastern fringe of the strongest heating coming out of far west TX, and, just on the south side of any aggregate outflow boundaries extending across northwest TX and into southwest OK. Increasing SRH, especially during the evening, may favor a couple tornadoes with the more discrete cells away from the larger heavy rain mass (see WPC Excessive Rainfall products for more information). Otherwise, occasional strong to damaging gusts may occur with any bowing structures traveling northeastward along the composite outflow/front as far east as central OK through the evening and overnight. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible later today and tonight primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the western CONUS will become highly amplified, with strong cooling aloft overspreading the Great Basin and Four Corners states. Southwest winds will increase across the Plains, with a weak lee trough developing along the length of the High Plains. Increasing southerly surface winds will bring a moist air mass northward across the southern Plains, resulting in widespread rain and thunderstorms primary from northwest TX across OK and into KS. Elsewhere, a large upper high will maintain relatively dry conditions over the eastern CONUS. ...Parts of western TX and southeast NM into southwest OK... Substantial rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from southeast NM into parts of the South Plains/TX Panhandle early, in a zone of moisture advection. An unstable air mass will already be in place with around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. Outflow boundaries may exist relatively early in the day, and may limit northward extent of the severe risk initially. However, at least marginal hail could extend northward into the cooler surface air mass from the TX Panhandle into western OK. The greatest severe risk appears to be with diurnal activity that will form along the eastern fringe of the strongest heating coming out of far west TX, and, just on the south side of any aggregate outflow boundaries extending across northwest TX and into southwest OK. Increasing SRH, especially during the evening, may favor a couple tornadoes with the more discrete cells away from the larger heavy rain mass (see WPC Excessive Rainfall products for more information). Otherwise, occasional strong to damaging gusts may occur with any bowing structures traveling northeastward along the composite outflow/front as far east as central OK through the evening and overnight. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/02/2024 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 02:35:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 03:22:51 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 586 WTPZ43 KNHC 020234 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 800 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 The depression has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with visible and microwave satellite imagery showing a cluster of convection near or a little east of the low-level center. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the last advisory, and thus the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion remains 270/6 kt. The depression is expected to continue moving generally westward during its lifetime as it is steered by a broad mid-level ridge to the north. The latest track guidance is similar to, but a little slower than, the earlier guidance. Based on the latest aids, the new forecast track is also a little slower, in the middle of the track guidance envelope. The depression is currently in an environment of light shear and over relatively warm water, and this should persist through 48 h. While this environment seems favorable, the regional-hurricane models and the global models show little strengthening during this time. The intensity forecast follows these models and therefore calls for little change in strength. However, any strengthening would bring the system to tropical-storm strength, and the statistical-dynamical models do forecast some intensification. After 48 h, increasing shear is expected to cause this small system to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area. A 72-h point as a remnant low was added based on the global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 11.1N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 11.1N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 11.1N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 11.2N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 11.3N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 11.3N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 11.3N 136.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 020234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024 0300 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 020234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024 0300 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 129.0W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 129.0W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 128.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.1N 129.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.1N 131.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.2N 132.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 11.3N 133.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 11.3N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 11.3N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 129.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 020234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 800 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 129.0W ABOUT 1500 MI...2410 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 129.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Nov 1 the center of Thirteen-E was located near 11.1, -129.0 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers was monitoring lake in northeast Kansas as drought caused their levels to fall. Water continued to be released from the reservoirs to maintain water supply and quality in the river basins.

Water users in Pine Grove were asked to conserve because the creek that brings water to the treatment plant’s intake was too low. A tanker truck delivered 7,000 gallons to the community that uses about 80,000 gallons daily. Farms’ wells have run dry, and creeks, too, have dried up. WCHS-TV ABC 8 (Charleston, W.V.), Nov 1, 2024

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains later tonight. ...Eastern NM into western TX... Storms are expected to form over eastern NM between 03-06Z, expanding in coverage and spreading into the western TX Panhandle and South Plains late. Isolated strong storms are also anticipated extending southwestward toward El Paso TX. Marginal hail or wind, and locally heavy rain will be possible. See the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more information. ..Jewell.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains later tonight. ...Eastern NM into western TX... Storms are expected to form over eastern NM between 03-06Z, expanding in coverage and spreading into the western TX Panhandle and South Plains late. Isolated strong storms are also anticipated extending southwestward toward El Paso TX. Marginal hail or wind, and locally heavy rain will be possible. See the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more information. ..Jewell.. 11/02/2024 Read more