Aggregator

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Monday across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, in the Four Corners region, and across the Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the lower Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Monday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Intermountain West. In the wake of the trough, thunderstorms will be possible near the coast in the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop near the Four Corners as a large-scale ascent increases ahead of the trough, and as surface temperatures warm during the day. Additional thunderstorms may form across the Great Lakes Monday night as warm advection, associated with a broad low-level jet, increases across the region. No severe threat is expected to develop across the continental United States Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching short-wave trough. Cooling profiles aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates and thermodynamic profiles will become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge as early as 17z at UIL, thus thunder probabilities will be maintained along the Pacific Northwest coast. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude short-wave trough will dig southeast across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may aid isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy/lapse rates for parcels to reach levels required for lightning. Even so, this activity will remain weak and limited. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching short-wave trough. Cooling profiles aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates and thermodynamic profiles will become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge as early as 17z at UIL, thus thunder probabilities will be maintained along the Pacific Northwest coast. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude short-wave trough will dig southeast across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may aid isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy/lapse rates for parcels to reach levels required for lightning. Even so, this activity will remain weak and limited. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching short-wave trough. Cooling profiles aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates and thermodynamic profiles will become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge as early as 17z at UIL, thus thunder probabilities will be maintained along the Pacific Northwest coast. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude short-wave trough will dig southeast across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may aid isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy/lapse rates for parcels to reach levels required for lightning. Even so, this activity will remain weak and limited. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching short-wave trough. Cooling profiles aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates and thermodynamic profiles will become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge as early as 17z at UIL, thus thunder probabilities will be maintained along the Pacific Northwest coast. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude short-wave trough will dig southeast across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may aid isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy/lapse rates for parcels to reach levels required for lightning. Even so, this activity will remain weak and limited. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching short-wave trough. Cooling profiles aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates and thermodynamic profiles will become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge as early as 17z at UIL, thus thunder probabilities will be maintained along the Pacific Northwest coast. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude short-wave trough will dig southeast across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may aid isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy/lapse rates for parcels to reach levels required for lightning. Even so, this activity will remain weak and limited. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching short-wave trough. Cooling profiles aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates and thermodynamic profiles will become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge as early as 17z at UIL, thus thunder probabilities will be maintained along the Pacific Northwest coast. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude short-wave trough will dig southeast across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may aid isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy/lapse rates for parcels to reach levels required for lightning. Even so, this activity will remain weak and limited. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Weak surface front is sagging south early this evening, currently extending from central SC-northern AL-Arklatex. Weak buoyancy developed along/ahead of this boundary this afternoon which contributed to isolated thunderstorms, primarily over the southern Appalachian region and over the Arklatex. While isolated weak convection persists in these areas, along with a few flashes of lightning, continued nocturnal cooling should lead to weaker/shallower updrafts over the next few hours. A few flashes of lighting may be noted with weak convection later tonight across the Pacific northwest. Otherwise, most of the CONUS will remain thunderstorm free. ..Darrow.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Weak surface front is sagging south early this evening, currently extending from central SC-northern AL-Arklatex. Weak buoyancy developed along/ahead of this boundary this afternoon which contributed to isolated thunderstorms, primarily over the southern Appalachian region and over the Arklatex. While isolated weak convection persists in these areas, along with a few flashes of lightning, continued nocturnal cooling should lead to weaker/shallower updrafts over the next few hours. A few flashes of lighting may be noted with weak convection later tonight across the Pacific northwest. Otherwise, most of the CONUS will remain thunderstorm free. ..Darrow.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Weak surface front is sagging south early this evening, currently extending from central SC-northern AL-Arklatex. Weak buoyancy developed along/ahead of this boundary this afternoon which contributed to isolated thunderstorms, primarily over the southern Appalachian region and over the Arklatex. While isolated weak convection persists in these areas, along with a few flashes of lightning, continued nocturnal cooling should lead to weaker/shallower updrafts over the next few hours. A few flashes of lighting may be noted with weak convection later tonight across the Pacific northwest. Otherwise, most of the CONUS will remain thunderstorm free. ..Darrow.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Weak surface front is sagging south early this evening, currently extending from central SC-northern AL-Arklatex. Weak buoyancy developed along/ahead of this boundary this afternoon which contributed to isolated thunderstorms, primarily over the southern Appalachian region and over the Arklatex. While isolated weak convection persists in these areas, along with a few flashes of lightning, continued nocturnal cooling should lead to weaker/shallower updrafts over the next few hours. A few flashes of lighting may be noted with weak convection later tonight across the Pacific northwest. Otherwise, most of the CONUS will remain thunderstorm free. ..Darrow.. 10/27/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 26 22:21:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 26 22:21:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z A deep upper-level trough will move through the West early to mid-next week as an amplified upper-level ridge shifts from the central to the eastern US. Well above normal temperatures will develop under the ridge, especially from the southern/central Plains through the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push through the West and northern Plains by Day 4/Tuesday and much of the High Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes by Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... On Day 3/Monday, locally critical conditions are likely from southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico onto portions of the southern Plains as south-southwest winds strengthen amid low RH. The eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf. Elevated to possibly locally critical conditions are forecast for portions of far southern Nevada and southwest Utah into western Arizona as well. Strong winds will continue on Day 4/Tuesday across the Southwest and the southern/central Plains but increasing Gulf moisture will sharpen and shift the dryline westward leaving a narrow corridor of critical winds/RH overlapping receptive fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may extend farther north into Kansas and possibly Nebraska ahead of the approaching cold front. Dry/breezy conditions will develop again in the Texas Panhandle/vicinity on Day 5/Wednesday ahead of the cold front. The moisture return ahead of the upper-level trough across the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and Great Lakes is forecast to be non-uniform and remains a source of forecast uncertainty. Areas of shallower/lower moisture amid strong southerly flow are likely on Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday ahead of the cold front, which could lead to transient elevated fire weather conditions as the fuels are very/record dry in portions of the Eastern Area. It is possible, if not likely, fire risk areas will be delineated in subsequent outlooks, probably within the range of high-resolution forecast guidance. Additionally, cloud cover over the Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes may mitigate/shift fire weather concerns. ...Rest of CONUS... Dry northwesterly flow will continue across much of the Northeast on Day 3/Monday. Locally elevated conditions are possible with minimum RH below 20% in portions of eastern New England, but winds are likely to be mostly below 10 mph. Northerly/offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California Day 4/Tuesday into Day 6/Thursday. However, critical winds/RH are unlikely and will be preceded with onshore flow and chances of precipitation. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z A deep upper-level trough will move through the West early to mid-next week as an amplified upper-level ridge shifts from the central to the eastern US. Well above normal temperatures will develop under the ridge, especially from the southern/central Plains through the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push through the West and northern Plains by Day 4/Tuesday and much of the High Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes by Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... On Day 3/Monday, locally critical conditions are likely from southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico onto portions of the southern Plains as south-southwest winds strengthen amid low RH. The eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf. Elevated to possibly locally critical conditions are forecast for portions of far southern Nevada and southwest Utah into western Arizona as well. Strong winds will continue on Day 4/Tuesday across the Southwest and the southern/central Plains but increasing Gulf moisture will sharpen and shift the dryline westward leaving a narrow corridor of critical winds/RH overlapping receptive fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may extend farther north into Kansas and possibly Nebraska ahead of the approaching cold front. Dry/breezy conditions will develop again in the Texas Panhandle/vicinity on Day 5/Wednesday ahead of the cold front. The moisture return ahead of the upper-level trough across the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and Great Lakes is forecast to be non-uniform and remains a source of forecast uncertainty. Areas of shallower/lower moisture amid strong southerly flow are likely on Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday ahead of the cold front, which could lead to transient elevated fire weather conditions as the fuels are very/record dry in portions of the Eastern Area. It is possible, if not likely, fire risk areas will be delineated in subsequent outlooks, probably within the range of high-resolution forecast guidance. Additionally, cloud cover over the Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes may mitigate/shift fire weather concerns. ...Rest of CONUS... Dry northwesterly flow will continue across much of the Northeast on Day 3/Monday. Locally elevated conditions are possible with minimum RH below 20% in portions of eastern New England, but winds are likely to be mostly below 10 mph. Northerly/offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California Day 4/Tuesday into Day 6/Thursday. However, critical winds/RH are unlikely and will be preceded with onshore flow and chances of precipitation. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z A deep upper-level trough will move through the West early to mid-next week as an amplified upper-level ridge shifts from the central to the eastern US. Well above normal temperatures will develop under the ridge, especially from the southern/central Plains through the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push through the West and northern Plains by Day 4/Tuesday and much of the High Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes by Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... On Day 3/Monday, locally critical conditions are likely from southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico onto portions of the southern Plains as south-southwest winds strengthen amid low RH. The eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf. Elevated to possibly locally critical conditions are forecast for portions of far southern Nevada and southwest Utah into western Arizona as well. Strong winds will continue on Day 4/Tuesday across the Southwest and the southern/central Plains but increasing Gulf moisture will sharpen and shift the dryline westward leaving a narrow corridor of critical winds/RH overlapping receptive fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may extend farther north into Kansas and possibly Nebraska ahead of the approaching cold front. Dry/breezy conditions will develop again in the Texas Panhandle/vicinity on Day 5/Wednesday ahead of the cold front. The moisture return ahead of the upper-level trough across the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and Great Lakes is forecast to be non-uniform and remains a source of forecast uncertainty. Areas of shallower/lower moisture amid strong southerly flow are likely on Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday ahead of the cold front, which could lead to transient elevated fire weather conditions as the fuels are very/record dry in portions of the Eastern Area. It is possible, if not likely, fire risk areas will be delineated in subsequent outlooks, probably within the range of high-resolution forecast guidance. Additionally, cloud cover over the Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes may mitigate/shift fire weather concerns. ...Rest of CONUS... Dry northwesterly flow will continue across much of the Northeast on Day 3/Monday. Locally elevated conditions are possible with minimum RH below 20% in portions of eastern New England, but winds are likely to be mostly below 10 mph. Northerly/offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California Day 4/Tuesday into Day 6/Thursday. However, critical winds/RH are unlikely and will be preceded with onshore flow and chances of precipitation. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z A deep upper-level trough will move through the West early to mid-next week as an amplified upper-level ridge shifts from the central to the eastern US. Well above normal temperatures will develop under the ridge, especially from the southern/central Plains through the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push through the West and northern Plains by Day 4/Tuesday and much of the High Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes by Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... On Day 3/Monday, locally critical conditions are likely from southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico onto portions of the southern Plains as south-southwest winds strengthen amid low RH. The eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf. Elevated to possibly locally critical conditions are forecast for portions of far southern Nevada and southwest Utah into western Arizona as well. Strong winds will continue on Day 4/Tuesday across the Southwest and the southern/central Plains but increasing Gulf moisture will sharpen and shift the dryline westward leaving a narrow corridor of critical winds/RH overlapping receptive fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may extend farther north into Kansas and possibly Nebraska ahead of the approaching cold front. Dry/breezy conditions will develop again in the Texas Panhandle/vicinity on Day 5/Wednesday ahead of the cold front. The moisture return ahead of the upper-level trough across the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and Great Lakes is forecast to be non-uniform and remains a source of forecast uncertainty. Areas of shallower/lower moisture amid strong southerly flow are likely on Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday ahead of the cold front, which could lead to transient elevated fire weather conditions as the fuels are very/record dry in portions of the Eastern Area. It is possible, if not likely, fire risk areas will be delineated in subsequent outlooks, probably within the range of high-resolution forecast guidance. Additionally, cloud cover over the Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes may mitigate/shift fire weather concerns. ...Rest of CONUS... Dry northwesterly flow will continue across much of the Northeast on Day 3/Monday. Locally elevated conditions are possible with minimum RH below 20% in portions of eastern New England, but winds are likely to be mostly below 10 mph. Northerly/offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California Day 4/Tuesday into Day 6/Thursday. However, critical winds/RH are unlikely and will be preceded with onshore flow and chances of precipitation. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z A deep upper-level trough will move through the West early to mid-next week as an amplified upper-level ridge shifts from the central to the eastern US. Well above normal temperatures will develop under the ridge, especially from the southern/central Plains through the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push through the West and northern Plains by Day 4/Tuesday and much of the High Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes by Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... On Day 3/Monday, locally critical conditions are likely from southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico onto portions of the southern Plains as south-southwest winds strengthen amid low RH. The eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf. Elevated to possibly locally critical conditions are forecast for portions of far southern Nevada and southwest Utah into western Arizona as well. Strong winds will continue on Day 4/Tuesday across the Southwest and the southern/central Plains but increasing Gulf moisture will sharpen and shift the dryline westward leaving a narrow corridor of critical winds/RH overlapping receptive fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may extend farther north into Kansas and possibly Nebraska ahead of the approaching cold front. Dry/breezy conditions will develop again in the Texas Panhandle/vicinity on Day 5/Wednesday ahead of the cold front. The moisture return ahead of the upper-level trough across the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and Great Lakes is forecast to be non-uniform and remains a source of forecast uncertainty. Areas of shallower/lower moisture amid strong southerly flow are likely on Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday ahead of the cold front, which could lead to transient elevated fire weather conditions as the fuels are very/record dry in portions of the Eastern Area. It is possible, if not likely, fire risk areas will be delineated in subsequent outlooks, probably within the range of high-resolution forecast guidance. Additionally, cloud cover over the Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes may mitigate/shift fire weather concerns. ...Rest of CONUS... Dry northwesterly flow will continue across much of the Northeast on Day 3/Monday. Locally elevated conditions are possible with minimum RH below 20% in portions of eastern New England, but winds are likely to be mostly below 10 mph. Northerly/offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California Day 4/Tuesday into Day 6/Thursday. However, critical winds/RH are unlikely and will be preceded with onshore flow and chances of precipitation. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was trimming the General Thunderstorm area behind the front in the Southeast. Similar to previous thinking, locally strong gusts could accompany a small multicell cluster tracking southeastward across western NC into northwestern SC this afternoon. However, this activity has remained shallow owing to marginal instability, and the risk of severe-caliber gusts still appears too low for probabilities. ..Weinman.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Ongoing isolated thunderstorms across AR into TN are occurring along/near a weak surface front. Mean large-scale troughing is present over the eastern CONUS, with nebulous/weak large-scale ascent over the Southeast. 12Z soundings from LZK and BNA show a stable layer/inversion in the 580-540 mb layer, which is hindering MUCAPE to some extent. Even so, isolated thunderstorms should continue along the surface boundary through the afternoon as daytime heating occurs from parts of the lower MS Valley into the Carolinas. Weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit updraft intensity/organization, although occasional gusty winds may occur with convection over the western Carolinas as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon with robust diurnal heating. Still, the overall threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low across the Southeast today. Low-topped convection should also move inland across parts of the Pacific Northwest late tonight into Sunday morning as an upper trough approaches this region. Isolated lightning flashes may occur with some of this activity as mid-level temperatures gradually cool, supporting weak MUCAPE. Read more