Aggregator

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 084 WTPZ42 KNHC 261434 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Kristy is rapidly weakening. Satellite images show the center of the hurricane on the southern edge of the central dense overcast, with the southern part of the circulation exposed due to strong shear. The current intensity is set to 65 kt, consistent with the latest estimates. Further rapid weakening is anticipated due to a continuation of strong shear and Kristy moving over cooler waters. The new intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, similar to the intensity consensus aids. Kristy should become post-tropical without any organized convection in about 24 h. The hurricane continues to move northwestward at about 12 kt this morning. This general motion is expected until late today when the mid-level circulation of the cyclone becomes decoupled with the low-level center. Kristy should then turn westward on Sunday and southwestward late that day as a remnant low. Very little change was made to the previous forecast, which remains steady in showing this course. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.7N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 21.1N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 22.3N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 261432 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 128.4W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 240SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 128.4W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 128.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.1N 129.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 130.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 128.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE=

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 14:34:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 14:34:13 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 261433 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 25N 130W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

...KRISTY WEAKENING RAPIDLY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 the center of Kristy was located near 19.7, -128.4 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 261433 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 ...KRISTY WEAKENING RAPIDLY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 128.4W ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 128.4 West. Kristy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue over the weekend, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A progressive and semi-amplified large-scale pattern will persist, with mean upper ridging over the Rockies/High Plains and broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. A surface cold front will continue to settle south-southeastward today across the southern Appalachians, Lower Mississippi Valley and ArkLaTex. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent especially within a corridor from the southern Arklatex to northern Alabama and South Carolina. Forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts, although lightning-producing convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and mainly during the afternoon through early evening hours. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A progressive and semi-amplified large-scale pattern will persist, with mean upper ridging over the Rockies/High Plains and broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. A surface cold front will continue to settle south-southeastward today across the southern Appalachians, Lower Mississippi Valley and ArkLaTex. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent especially within a corridor from the southern Arklatex to northern Alabama and South Carolina. Forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts, although lightning-producing convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and mainly during the afternoon through early evening hours. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A progressive and semi-amplified large-scale pattern will persist, with mean upper ridging over the Rockies/High Plains and broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. A surface cold front will continue to settle south-southeastward today across the southern Appalachians, Lower Mississippi Valley and ArkLaTex. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent especially within a corridor from the southern Arklatex to northern Alabama and South Carolina. Forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts, although lightning-producing convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and mainly during the afternoon through early evening hours. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A progressive and semi-amplified large-scale pattern will persist, with mean upper ridging over the Rockies/High Plains and broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. A surface cold front will continue to settle south-southeastward today across the southern Appalachians, Lower Mississippi Valley and ArkLaTex. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent especially within a corridor from the southern Arklatex to northern Alabama and South Carolina. Forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts, although lightning-producing convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and mainly during the afternoon through early evening hours. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A progressive and semi-amplified large-scale pattern will persist, with mean upper ridging over the Rockies/High Plains and broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. A surface cold front will continue to settle south-southeastward today across the southern Appalachians, Lower Mississippi Valley and ArkLaTex. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent especially within a corridor from the southern Arklatex to northern Alabama and South Carolina. Forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts, although lightning-producing convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and mainly during the afternoon through early evening hours. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/26/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261126
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located over the western portion of the eastern Pacific
basin.

Western East Pacific:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently located well
to the southwest of the southwestern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at
about 15 mph. This system is expected to move into the central
Pacific basin on Wednesday or Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260837 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Kristy continues to weaken this morning. While the hurricane is still producing an area of fairly deep convection, this convection is becoming stretched poleward as south-southwesterly vertical wind shear steadily increases over the tropical cyclone. Subjective Dvorak estimates are constrained from decreasing faster this morning, but taking a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates yields an intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. The shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS analysis is now up to 30 kt, and is forecast to increase above 40 kt in 24 h. In addition, Kristy is now crossing the 26 C isotherm and heading for even cooler ocean waters. This combination should continue to result in rapid weakening, with the hurricane likely to vertically decouple later today. The NHC intensity forecast continues to blend the previous forecast with the latest consensus aids, showing Kristy weakening below hurricane intensity by this evening. Remnant low status is likely not far behind on Sunday as the cyclone ceases to produce organized deep convection, as depicted by both global and regional-hurricane models. The remnant low low should finally open up into a trough on Monday. The hurricane has maintained a northwestward motion this morning at 320/13 kt. While the prominent subtropical mid-level ridge over Baja California steering Kristy should remain in place, the tropical cyclone's vertically deep vortex will likely decouple over the next 24 h. This decoupling will result in the mid-level vortex leaving behind Kristy's surface circulation, which should quickly slow down and turn westward as it becomes primarily influenced by strong low-level ridging to its north. The track guidance continues to be in relative good agreement with the prior forecast track, and only minor adjustments were made from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.7N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 08:35:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 09:23:00 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 260834 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 29 7(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 260833 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 127.6W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 127.6W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 127.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 127.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN=

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 260834 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 ...KRISTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 127.6W ABOUT 1180 MI...1895 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 127.6 West. Kristy is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next couple of days, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...KRISTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 the center of Kristy was located near 18.7, -127.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level speed max are forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast ahead of the system from the southern High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection is forecast on Tuesday within a belt of strong low-level flow across the southern and central Plains. The moist airmass may reach the mid Missouri Valley by Tuesday evening where model forecasts develop scattered thunderstorms. A severe threat will be possible across parts of the mid Missouri Valley as the airmass moistens in response to large-scale ascent and relatively strong deep-layer shear. Some model forecasts suggest that convective development may be delayed until the late evening and overnight period. The late initiation would probably keep any severe threat isolated and marginal due the weakness in instability. Will not add a threat area at this time due to timing uncertainty concerning convective initiation. On Wednesday, convective development with greater coverage is forecast during the day from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass combined with strong low-level flow and sufficient instability may result in a severe threat during the afternoon. At this time, the potential for severe storms appears conditional along much of the corridor from eastern Oklahoma northeastward into Wisconsin. A severe threat area could be needed as confidence increases over the next few model runs concerning the area with the greatest severe potential. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the northern tier of the United States. A moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of this airmass each day. However, instability and large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat that develops could remain isolated and marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level speed max are forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast ahead of the system from the southern High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection is forecast on Tuesday within a belt of strong low-level flow across the southern and central Plains. The moist airmass may reach the mid Missouri Valley by Tuesday evening where model forecasts develop scattered thunderstorms. A severe threat will be possible across parts of the mid Missouri Valley as the airmass moistens in response to large-scale ascent and relatively strong deep-layer shear. Some model forecasts suggest that convective development may be delayed until the late evening and overnight period. The late initiation would probably keep any severe threat isolated and marginal due the weakness in instability. Will not add a threat area at this time due to timing uncertainty concerning convective initiation. On Wednesday, convective development with greater coverage is forecast during the day from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass combined with strong low-level flow and sufficient instability may result in a severe threat during the afternoon. At this time, the potential for severe storms appears conditional along much of the corridor from eastern Oklahoma northeastward into Wisconsin. A severe threat area could be needed as confidence increases over the next few model runs concerning the area with the greatest severe potential. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the northern tier of the United States. A moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of this airmass each day. However, instability and large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat that develops could remain isolated and marginal. Read more