Aggregator

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 08:35:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 09:23:00 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 260834 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 29 7(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 260833 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 127.6W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 127.6W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 127.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 127.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN=

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 260834 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 ...KRISTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 127.6W ABOUT 1180 MI...1895 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 127.6 West. Kristy is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next couple of days, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...KRISTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 the center of Kristy was located near 18.7, -127.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level speed max are forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast ahead of the system from the southern High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection is forecast on Tuesday within a belt of strong low-level flow across the southern and central Plains. The moist airmass may reach the mid Missouri Valley by Tuesday evening where model forecasts develop scattered thunderstorms. A severe threat will be possible across parts of the mid Missouri Valley as the airmass moistens in response to large-scale ascent and relatively strong deep-layer shear. Some model forecasts suggest that convective development may be delayed until the late evening and overnight period. The late initiation would probably keep any severe threat isolated and marginal due the weakness in instability. Will not add a threat area at this time due to timing uncertainty concerning convective initiation. On Wednesday, convective development with greater coverage is forecast during the day from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass combined with strong low-level flow and sufficient instability may result in a severe threat during the afternoon. At this time, the potential for severe storms appears conditional along much of the corridor from eastern Oklahoma northeastward into Wisconsin. A severe threat area could be needed as confidence increases over the next few model runs concerning the area with the greatest severe potential. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the northern tier of the United States. A moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of this airmass each day. However, instability and large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat that develops could remain isolated and marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level speed max are forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast ahead of the system from the southern High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection is forecast on Tuesday within a belt of strong low-level flow across the southern and central Plains. The moist airmass may reach the mid Missouri Valley by Tuesday evening where model forecasts develop scattered thunderstorms. A severe threat will be possible across parts of the mid Missouri Valley as the airmass moistens in response to large-scale ascent and relatively strong deep-layer shear. Some model forecasts suggest that convective development may be delayed until the late evening and overnight period. The late initiation would probably keep any severe threat isolated and marginal due the weakness in instability. Will not add a threat area at this time due to timing uncertainty concerning convective initiation. On Wednesday, convective development with greater coverage is forecast during the day from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass combined with strong low-level flow and sufficient instability may result in a severe threat during the afternoon. At this time, the potential for severe storms appears conditional along much of the corridor from eastern Oklahoma northeastward into Wisconsin. A severe threat area could be needed as confidence increases over the next few model runs concerning the area with the greatest severe potential. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the northern tier of the United States. A moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of this airmass each day. However, instability and large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat that develops could remain isolated and marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level speed max are forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast ahead of the system from the southern High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection is forecast on Tuesday within a belt of strong low-level flow across the southern and central Plains. The moist airmass may reach the mid Missouri Valley by Tuesday evening where model forecasts develop scattered thunderstorms. A severe threat will be possible across parts of the mid Missouri Valley as the airmass moistens in response to large-scale ascent and relatively strong deep-layer shear. Some model forecasts suggest that convective development may be delayed until the late evening and overnight period. The late initiation would probably keep any severe threat isolated and marginal due the weakness in instability. Will not add a threat area at this time due to timing uncertainty concerning convective initiation. On Wednesday, convective development with greater coverage is forecast during the day from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass combined with strong low-level flow and sufficient instability may result in a severe threat during the afternoon. At this time, the potential for severe storms appears conditional along much of the corridor from eastern Oklahoma northeastward into Wisconsin. A severe threat area could be needed as confidence increases over the next few model runs concerning the area with the greatest severe potential. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the northern tier of the United States. A moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of this airmass each day. However, instability and large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat that develops could remain isolated and marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level speed max are forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast ahead of the system from the southern High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection is forecast on Tuesday within a belt of strong low-level flow across the southern and central Plains. The moist airmass may reach the mid Missouri Valley by Tuesday evening where model forecasts develop scattered thunderstorms. A severe threat will be possible across parts of the mid Missouri Valley as the airmass moistens in response to large-scale ascent and relatively strong deep-layer shear. Some model forecasts suggest that convective development may be delayed until the late evening and overnight period. The late initiation would probably keep any severe threat isolated and marginal due the weakness in instability. Will not add a threat area at this time due to timing uncertainty concerning convective initiation. On Wednesday, convective development with greater coverage is forecast during the day from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass combined with strong low-level flow and sufficient instability may result in a severe threat during the afternoon. At this time, the potential for severe storms appears conditional along much of the corridor from eastern Oklahoma northeastward into Wisconsin. A severe threat area could be needed as confidence increases over the next few model runs concerning the area with the greatest severe potential. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the northern tier of the United States. A moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of this airmass each day. However, instability and large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat that develops could remain isolated and marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level speed max are forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast ahead of the system from the southern High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection is forecast on Tuesday within a belt of strong low-level flow across the southern and central Plains. The moist airmass may reach the mid Missouri Valley by Tuesday evening where model forecasts develop scattered thunderstorms. A severe threat will be possible across parts of the mid Missouri Valley as the airmass moistens in response to large-scale ascent and relatively strong deep-layer shear. Some model forecasts suggest that convective development may be delayed until the late evening and overnight period. The late initiation would probably keep any severe threat isolated and marginal due the weakness in instability. Will not add a threat area at this time due to timing uncertainty concerning convective initiation. On Wednesday, convective development with greater coverage is forecast during the day from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass combined with strong low-level flow and sufficient instability may result in a severe threat during the afternoon. At this time, the potential for severe storms appears conditional along much of the corridor from eastern Oklahoma northeastward into Wisconsin. A severe threat area could be needed as confidence increases over the next few model runs concerning the area with the greatest severe potential. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the northern tier of the United States. A moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of this airmass each day. However, instability and large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat that develops could remain isolated and marginal. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday into Monday into Monday night across parts of the Great Lakes, in eastern Florida, across parts of the Four Corners, and in the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected to develop. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move across the Mississippi Valley on Monday. At the surface, and area of high pressure is forecast along the eastern Seaboard, where onshore flow will likely be in place. A moist airmass over the far eastern Florida Peninsula may warm sufficiently for isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes may occur in the Pacific Northwest, as a shortwave trough moves inland. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Four Corners region during the afternoon. Finally, thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Great Lakes region Monday night as warm advection increases in association with a strengthening low-level jet. No severe threat is expected to develop Monday or Monday night over the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday into Monday into Monday night across parts of the Great Lakes, in eastern Florida, across parts of the Four Corners, and in the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected to develop. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move across the Mississippi Valley on Monday. At the surface, and area of high pressure is forecast along the eastern Seaboard, where onshore flow will likely be in place. A moist airmass over the far eastern Florida Peninsula may warm sufficiently for isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes may occur in the Pacific Northwest, as a shortwave trough moves inland. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Four Corners region during the afternoon. Finally, thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Great Lakes region Monday night as warm advection increases in association with a strengthening low-level jet. No severe threat is expected to develop Monday or Monday night over the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday into Monday into Monday night across parts of the Great Lakes, in eastern Florida, across parts of the Four Corners, and in the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected to develop. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move across the Mississippi Valley on Monday. At the surface, and area of high pressure is forecast along the eastern Seaboard, where onshore flow will likely be in place. A moist airmass over the far eastern Florida Peninsula may warm sufficiently for isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes may occur in the Pacific Northwest, as a shortwave trough moves inland. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Four Corners region during the afternoon. Finally, thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Great Lakes region Monday night as warm advection increases in association with a strengthening low-level jet. No severe threat is expected to develop Monday or Monday night over the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday into Monday into Monday night across parts of the Great Lakes, in eastern Florida, across parts of the Four Corners, and in the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected to develop. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move across the Mississippi Valley on Monday. At the surface, and area of high pressure is forecast along the eastern Seaboard, where onshore flow will likely be in place. A moist airmass over the far eastern Florida Peninsula may warm sufficiently for isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes may occur in the Pacific Northwest, as a shortwave trough moves inland. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Four Corners region during the afternoon. Finally, thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Great Lakes region Monday night as warm advection increases in association with a strengthening low-level jet. No severe threat is expected to develop Monday or Monday night over the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday into Monday into Monday night across parts of the Great Lakes, in eastern Florida, across parts of the Four Corners, and in the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected to develop. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move across the Mississippi Valley on Monday. At the surface, and area of high pressure is forecast along the eastern Seaboard, where onshore flow will likely be in place. A moist airmass over the far eastern Florida Peninsula may warm sufficiently for isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes may occur in the Pacific Northwest, as a shortwave trough moves inland. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Four Corners region during the afternoon. Finally, thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Great Lakes region Monday night as warm advection increases in association with a strengthening low-level jet. No severe threat is expected to develop Monday or Monday night over the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more