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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the the coastal Pacific Northwest, Four Corners, and upper Great Lakes. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough along the West Coast will undergo some amplification Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. In the East, upper-level ridging will continue to increase. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Modest moisture return will occur into the Upper Midwest by the evening/overnight. Some elevated buoyancy (250-600 J/kg MUCAPE) is expected to develop in eastern Wisconsin/western Michigan by early /mid evening as low-level warm advection increases. A few stronger updrafts capable of small hail are possible, but larger/severe hail is not likely. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the the coastal Pacific Northwest, Four Corners, and upper Great Lakes. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough along the West Coast will undergo some amplification Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. In the East, upper-level ridging will continue to increase. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Modest moisture return will occur into the Upper Midwest by the evening/overnight. Some elevated buoyancy (250-600 J/kg MUCAPE) is expected to develop in eastern Wisconsin/western Michigan by early /mid evening as low-level warm advection increases. A few stronger updrafts capable of small hail are possible, but larger/severe hail is not likely. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Locally elevated conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin and eastern California ahead of a cold front and amid downslope flow. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of north-central Montana due to downslope flow. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Locally elevated conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin and eastern California ahead of a cold front and amid downslope flow. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of north-central Montana due to downslope flow. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Locally elevated conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin and eastern California ahead of a cold front and amid downslope flow. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of north-central Montana due to downslope flow. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Locally elevated conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin and eastern California ahead of a cold front and amid downslope flow. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of north-central Montana due to downslope flow. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Locally elevated conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin and eastern California ahead of a cold front and amid downslope flow. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of north-central Montana due to downslope flow. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Locally elevated conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin and eastern California ahead of a cold front and amid downslope flow. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of north-central Montana due to downslope flow. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest with broader cyclonic flow extending into the intermountain region. Ridging aloft will be the primary feature east of the Divide as another upper-level trough in parts of the Northeast continues to move offshore during the period. A Pacific surface front will continue to move eastward along with the western upper-level system. ...Coastal Washington/Oregon... Within the post-frontal environment, cold temperatures aloft will promote sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Depth of convection will likely remain marginally supportive of charge separation, limiting overall coverage. There may be a brief period where modest low-level wind enhancement could overlap with peak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg MUCAPE) leading to weak low-level rotation in the strongest storms. Even so, a few strong, sub-severe wind gusts along the coast are all that is expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest with broader cyclonic flow extending into the intermountain region. Ridging aloft will be the primary feature east of the Divide as another upper-level trough in parts of the Northeast continues to move offshore during the period. A Pacific surface front will continue to move eastward along with the western upper-level system. ...Coastal Washington/Oregon... Within the post-frontal environment, cold temperatures aloft will promote sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Depth of convection will likely remain marginally supportive of charge separation, limiting overall coverage. There may be a brief period where modest low-level wind enhancement could overlap with peak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg MUCAPE) leading to weak low-level rotation in the strongest storms. Even so, a few strong, sub-severe wind gusts along the coast are all that is expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest with broader cyclonic flow extending into the intermountain region. Ridging aloft will be the primary feature east of the Divide as another upper-level trough in parts of the Northeast continues to move offshore during the period. A Pacific surface front will continue to move eastward along with the western upper-level system. ...Coastal Washington/Oregon... Within the post-frontal environment, cold temperatures aloft will promote sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Depth of convection will likely remain marginally supportive of charge separation, limiting overall coverage. There may be a brief period where modest low-level wind enhancement could overlap with peak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg MUCAPE) leading to weak low-level rotation in the strongest storms. Even so, a few strong, sub-severe wind gusts along the coast are all that is expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest with broader cyclonic flow extending into the intermountain region. Ridging aloft will be the primary feature east of the Divide as another upper-level trough in parts of the Northeast continues to move offshore during the period. A Pacific surface front will continue to move eastward along with the western upper-level system. ...Coastal Washington/Oregon... Within the post-frontal environment, cold temperatures aloft will promote sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Depth of convection will likely remain marginally supportive of charge separation, limiting overall coverage. There may be a brief period where modest low-level wind enhancement could overlap with peak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg MUCAPE) leading to weak low-level rotation in the strongest storms. Even so, a few strong, sub-severe wind gusts along the coast are all that is expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest with broader cyclonic flow extending into the intermountain region. Ridging aloft will be the primary feature east of the Divide as another upper-level trough in parts of the Northeast continues to move offshore during the period. A Pacific surface front will continue to move eastward along with the western upper-level system. ...Coastal Washington/Oregon... Within the post-frontal environment, cold temperatures aloft will promote sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Depth of convection will likely remain marginally supportive of charge separation, limiting overall coverage. There may be a brief period where modest low-level wind enhancement could overlap with peak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg MUCAPE) leading to weak low-level rotation in the strongest storms. Even so, a few strong, sub-severe wind gusts along the coast are all that is expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest with broader cyclonic flow extending into the intermountain region. Ridging aloft will be the primary feature east of the Divide as another upper-level trough in parts of the Northeast continues to move offshore during the period. A Pacific surface front will continue to move eastward along with the western upper-level system. ...Coastal Washington/Oregon... Within the post-frontal environment, cold temperatures aloft will promote sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Depth of convection will likely remain marginally supportive of charge separation, limiting overall coverage. There may be a brief period where modest low-level wind enhancement could overlap with peak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg MUCAPE) leading to weak low-level rotation in the strongest storms. Even so, a few strong, sub-severe wind gusts along the coast are all that is expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest with broader cyclonic flow extending into the intermountain region. Ridging aloft will be the primary feature east of the Divide as another upper-level trough in parts of the Northeast continues to move offshore during the period. A Pacific surface front will continue to move eastward along with the western upper-level system. ...Coastal Washington/Oregon... Within the post-frontal environment, cold temperatures aloft will promote sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Depth of convection will likely remain marginally supportive of charge separation, limiting overall coverage. There may be a brief period where modest low-level wind enhancement could overlap with peak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg MUCAPE) leading to weak low-level rotation in the strongest storms. Even so, a few strong, sub-severe wind gusts along the coast are all that is expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Ongoing isolated thunderstorms across AR into TN are occurring along/near a weak surface front. Mean large-scale troughing is present over the eastern CONUS, with nebulous/weak large-scale ascent over the Southeast. 12Z soundings from LZK and BNA show a stable layer/inversion in the 580-540 mb layer, which is hindering MUCAPE to some extent. Even so, isolated thunderstorms should continue along the surface boundary through the afternoon as daytime heating occurs from parts of the lower MS Valley into the Carolinas. Weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit updraft intensity/organization, although occasional gusty winds may occur with convection over the western Carolinas as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon with robust diurnal heating. Still, the overall threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low across the Southeast today. Low-topped convection should also move inland across parts of the Pacific Northwest late tonight into Sunday morning as an upper trough approaches this region. Isolated lightning flashes may occur with some of this activity as mid-level temperatures gradually cool, supporting weak MUCAPE. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Ongoing isolated thunderstorms across AR into TN are occurring along/near a weak surface front. Mean large-scale troughing is present over the eastern CONUS, with nebulous/weak large-scale ascent over the Southeast. 12Z soundings from LZK and BNA show a stable layer/inversion in the 580-540 mb layer, which is hindering MUCAPE to some extent. Even so, isolated thunderstorms should continue along the surface boundary through the afternoon as daytime heating occurs from parts of the lower MS Valley into the Carolinas. Weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit updraft intensity/organization, although occasional gusty winds may occur with convection over the western Carolinas as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon with robust diurnal heating. Still, the overall threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low across the Southeast today. Low-topped convection should also move inland across parts of the Pacific Northwest late tonight into Sunday morning as an upper trough approaches this region. Isolated lightning flashes may occur with some of this activity as mid-level temperatures gradually cool, supporting weak MUCAPE. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Ongoing isolated thunderstorms across AR into TN are occurring along/near a weak surface front. Mean large-scale troughing is present over the eastern CONUS, with nebulous/weak large-scale ascent over the Southeast. 12Z soundings from LZK and BNA show a stable layer/inversion in the 580-540 mb layer, which is hindering MUCAPE to some extent. Even so, isolated thunderstorms should continue along the surface boundary through the afternoon as daytime heating occurs from parts of the lower MS Valley into the Carolinas. Weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit updraft intensity/organization, although occasional gusty winds may occur with convection over the western Carolinas as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon with robust diurnal heating. Still, the overall threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low across the Southeast today. Low-topped convection should also move inland across parts of the Pacific Northwest late tonight into Sunday morning as an upper trough approaches this region. Isolated lightning flashes may occur with some of this activity as mid-level temperatures gradually cool, supporting weak MUCAPE. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Ongoing isolated thunderstorms across AR into TN are occurring along/near a weak surface front. Mean large-scale troughing is present over the eastern CONUS, with nebulous/weak large-scale ascent over the Southeast. 12Z soundings from LZK and BNA show a stable layer/inversion in the 580-540 mb layer, which is hindering MUCAPE to some extent. Even so, isolated thunderstorms should continue along the surface boundary through the afternoon as daytime heating occurs from parts of the lower MS Valley into the Carolinas. Weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit updraft intensity/organization, although occasional gusty winds may occur with convection over the western Carolinas as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon with robust diurnal heating. Still, the overall threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low across the Southeast today. Low-topped convection should also move inland across parts of the Pacific Northwest late tonight into Sunday morning as an upper trough approaches this region. Isolated lightning flashes may occur with some of this activity as mid-level temperatures gradually cool, supporting weak MUCAPE. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Ongoing isolated thunderstorms across AR into TN are occurring along/near a weak surface front. Mean large-scale troughing is present over the eastern CONUS, with nebulous/weak large-scale ascent over the Southeast. 12Z soundings from LZK and BNA show a stable layer/inversion in the 580-540 mb layer, which is hindering MUCAPE to some extent. Even so, isolated thunderstorms should continue along the surface boundary through the afternoon as daytime heating occurs from parts of the lower MS Valley into the Carolinas. Weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit updraft intensity/organization, although occasional gusty winds may occur with convection over the western Carolinas as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon with robust diurnal heating. Still, the overall threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low across the Southeast today. Low-topped convection should also move inland across parts of the Pacific Northwest late tonight into Sunday morning as an upper trough approaches this region. Isolated lightning flashes may occur with some of this activity as mid-level temperatures gradually cool, supporting weak MUCAPE. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/26/2024 Read more