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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Ongoing isolated thunderstorms across AR into TN are occurring along/near a weak surface front. Mean large-scale troughing is present over the eastern CONUS, with nebulous/weak large-scale ascent over the Southeast. 12Z soundings from LZK and BNA show a stable layer/inversion in the 580-540 mb layer, which is hindering MUCAPE to some extent. Even so, isolated thunderstorms should continue along the surface boundary through the afternoon as daytime heating occurs from parts of the lower MS Valley into the Carolinas. Weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit updraft intensity/organization, although occasional gusty winds may occur with convection over the western Carolinas as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon with robust diurnal heating. Still, the overall threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low across the Southeast today. Low-topped convection should also move inland across parts of the Pacific Northwest late tonight into Sunday morning as an upper trough approaches this region. Isolated lightning flashes may occur with some of this activity as mid-level temperatures gradually cool, supporting weak MUCAPE. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded slightly west/north based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. The Elevated area in Wyoming was expanded northward for similar reasoning. Locally elevated conditions may also develop along the Sierra Front and eastern slopes/vicinity of the southern Cascades as southwest/cross-mountain flow strengthens. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded slightly west/north based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. The Elevated area in Wyoming was expanded northward for similar reasoning. Locally elevated conditions may also develop along the Sierra Front and eastern slopes/vicinity of the southern Cascades as southwest/cross-mountain flow strengthens. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded slightly west/north based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. The Elevated area in Wyoming was expanded northward for similar reasoning. Locally elevated conditions may also develop along the Sierra Front and eastern slopes/vicinity of the southern Cascades as southwest/cross-mountain flow strengthens. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded slightly west/north based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. The Elevated area in Wyoming was expanded northward for similar reasoning. Locally elevated conditions may also develop along the Sierra Front and eastern slopes/vicinity of the southern Cascades as southwest/cross-mountain flow strengthens. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded slightly west/north based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. The Elevated area in Wyoming was expanded northward for similar reasoning. Locally elevated conditions may also develop along the Sierra Front and eastern slopes/vicinity of the southern Cascades as southwest/cross-mountain flow strengthens. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded slightly west/north based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. The Elevated area in Wyoming was expanded northward for similar reasoning. Locally elevated conditions may also develop along the Sierra Front and eastern slopes/vicinity of the southern Cascades as southwest/cross-mountain flow strengthens. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 084 WTPZ42 KNHC 261434 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Kristy is rapidly weakening. Satellite images show the center of the hurricane on the southern edge of the central dense overcast, with the southern part of the circulation exposed due to strong shear. The current intensity is set to 65 kt, consistent with the latest estimates. Further rapid weakening is anticipated due to a continuation of strong shear and Kristy moving over cooler waters. The new intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, similar to the intensity consensus aids. Kristy should become post-tropical without any organized convection in about 24 h. The hurricane continues to move northwestward at about 12 kt this morning. This general motion is expected until late today when the mid-level circulation of the cyclone becomes decoupled with the low-level center. Kristy should then turn westward on Sunday and southwestward late that day as a remnant low. Very little change was made to the previous forecast, which remains steady in showing this course. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.7N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 21.1N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 22.3N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 261432 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 128.4W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 240SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 128.4W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 128.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.1N 129.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 130.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 128.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE=

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 14:34:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 14:34:13 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 261433 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 25N 130W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

...KRISTY WEAKENING RAPIDLY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 the center of Kristy was located near 19.7, -128.4 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 261433 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 ...KRISTY WEAKENING RAPIDLY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 128.4W ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 128.4 West. Kristy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue over the weekend, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A progressive and semi-amplified large-scale pattern will persist, with mean upper ridging over the Rockies/High Plains and broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. A surface cold front will continue to settle south-southeastward today across the southern Appalachians, Lower Mississippi Valley and ArkLaTex. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent especially within a corridor from the southern Arklatex to northern Alabama and South Carolina. Forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts, although lightning-producing convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and mainly during the afternoon through early evening hours. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A progressive and semi-amplified large-scale pattern will persist, with mean upper ridging over the Rockies/High Plains and broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. A surface cold front will continue to settle south-southeastward today across the southern Appalachians, Lower Mississippi Valley and ArkLaTex. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent especially within a corridor from the southern Arklatex to northern Alabama and South Carolina. Forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts, although lightning-producing convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and mainly during the afternoon through early evening hours. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A progressive and semi-amplified large-scale pattern will persist, with mean upper ridging over the Rockies/High Plains and broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. A surface cold front will continue to settle south-southeastward today across the southern Appalachians, Lower Mississippi Valley and ArkLaTex. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent especially within a corridor from the southern Arklatex to northern Alabama and South Carolina. Forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts, although lightning-producing convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and mainly during the afternoon through early evening hours. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A progressive and semi-amplified large-scale pattern will persist, with mean upper ridging over the Rockies/High Plains and broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. A surface cold front will continue to settle south-southeastward today across the southern Appalachians, Lower Mississippi Valley and ArkLaTex. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent especially within a corridor from the southern Arklatex to northern Alabama and South Carolina. Forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts, although lightning-producing convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and mainly during the afternoon through early evening hours. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A progressive and semi-amplified large-scale pattern will persist, with mean upper ridging over the Rockies/High Plains and broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. A surface cold front will continue to settle south-southeastward today across the southern Appalachians, Lower Mississippi Valley and ArkLaTex. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent especially within a corridor from the southern Arklatex to northern Alabama and South Carolina. Forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts, although lightning-producing convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and mainly during the afternoon through early evening hours. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/26/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261126
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located over the western portion of the eastern Pacific
basin.

Western East Pacific:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently located well
to the southwest of the southwestern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at
about 15 mph. This system is expected to move into the central
Pacific basin on Wednesday or Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260837 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Kristy continues to weaken this morning. While the hurricane is still producing an area of fairly deep convection, this convection is becoming stretched poleward as south-southwesterly vertical wind shear steadily increases over the tropical cyclone. Subjective Dvorak estimates are constrained from decreasing faster this morning, but taking a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates yields an intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. The shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS analysis is now up to 30 kt, and is forecast to increase above 40 kt in 24 h. In addition, Kristy is now crossing the 26 C isotherm and heading for even cooler ocean waters. This combination should continue to result in rapid weakening, with the hurricane likely to vertically decouple later today. The NHC intensity forecast continues to blend the previous forecast with the latest consensus aids, showing Kristy weakening below hurricane intensity by this evening. Remnant low status is likely not far behind on Sunday as the cyclone ceases to produce organized deep convection, as depicted by both global and regional-hurricane models. The remnant low low should finally open up into a trough on Monday. The hurricane has maintained a northwestward motion this morning at 320/13 kt. While the prominent subtropical mid-level ridge over Baja California steering Kristy should remain in place, the tropical cyclone's vertically deep vortex will likely decouple over the next 24 h. This decoupling will result in the mid-level vortex leaving behind Kristy's surface circulation, which should quickly slow down and turn westward as it becomes primarily influenced by strong low-level ridging to its north. The track guidance continues to be in relative good agreement with the prior forecast track, and only minor adjustments were made from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.7N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin