Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along parts of the coast in the Pacific Northwest, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. A large surface high will keep the airmass relatively dry across much of the eastern half of the nation. In the west, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of this feature, strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development along the coast of Oregon and Washington from Sunday afternoon into the evening and overnight. No severe threat is expected on Sunday or Sunday night across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along parts of the coast in the Pacific Northwest, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. A large surface high will keep the airmass relatively dry across much of the eastern half of the nation. In the west, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of this feature, strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development along the coast of Oregon and Washington from Sunday afternoon into the evening and overnight. No severe threat is expected on Sunday or Sunday night across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along parts of the coast in the Pacific Northwest, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. A large surface high will keep the airmass relatively dry across much of the eastern half of the nation. In the west, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of this feature, strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development along the coast of Oregon and Washington from Sunday afternoon into the evening and overnight. No severe threat is expected on Sunday or Sunday night across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along parts of the coast in the Pacific Northwest, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. A large surface high will keep the airmass relatively dry across much of the eastern half of the nation. In the west, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of this feature, strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development along the coast of Oregon and Washington from Sunday afternoon into the evening and overnight. No severe threat is expected on Sunday or Sunday night across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along parts of the coast in the Pacific Northwest, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. A large surface high will keep the airmass relatively dry across much of the eastern half of the nation. In the west, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of this feature, strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development along the coast of Oregon and Washington from Sunday afternoon into the evening and overnight. No severe threat is expected on Sunday or Sunday night across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous states; however, an isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the ArkLaTex, and across the southern Appalachians. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern remains seasonally tranquil with mean upper ridging holding across the Rockies and a broader trough noted across the eastern US. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. Deep northwesterly flow will encourage a surface high to settle across the Midwest and the leading edge of this air mass will extend into the southern Appalachians-mid South-Arklatex. Latest model guidance suggests a surface front will arc from western NC-northern MS-northeast TX by 18z. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent across the southern Arklatex and from northern AL into SC. As a result, weak buoyancy will develop in both of these regions. With higher PWs noted along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts. Even so, convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and likely concentrated in the afternoon into early-evening hours. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous states; however, an isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the ArkLaTex, and across the southern Appalachians. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern remains seasonally tranquil with mean upper ridging holding across the Rockies and a broader trough noted across the eastern US. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. Deep northwesterly flow will encourage a surface high to settle across the Midwest and the leading edge of this air mass will extend into the southern Appalachians-mid South-Arklatex. Latest model guidance suggests a surface front will arc from western NC-northern MS-northeast TX by 18z. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent across the southern Arklatex and from northern AL into SC. As a result, weak buoyancy will develop in both of these regions. With higher PWs noted along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts. Even so, convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and likely concentrated in the afternoon into early-evening hours. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous states; however, an isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the ArkLaTex, and across the southern Appalachians. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern remains seasonally tranquil with mean upper ridging holding across the Rockies and a broader trough noted across the eastern US. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. Deep northwesterly flow will encourage a surface high to settle across the Midwest and the leading edge of this air mass will extend into the southern Appalachians-mid South-Arklatex. Latest model guidance suggests a surface front will arc from western NC-northern MS-northeast TX by 18z. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent across the southern Arklatex and from northern AL into SC. As a result, weak buoyancy will develop in both of these regions. With higher PWs noted along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts. Even so, convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and likely concentrated in the afternoon into early-evening hours. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous states; however, an isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the ArkLaTex, and across the southern Appalachians. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern remains seasonally tranquil with mean upper ridging holding across the Rockies and a broader trough noted across the eastern US. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. Deep northwesterly flow will encourage a surface high to settle across the Midwest and the leading edge of this air mass will extend into the southern Appalachians-mid South-Arklatex. Latest model guidance suggests a surface front will arc from western NC-northern MS-northeast TX by 18z. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent across the southern Arklatex and from northern AL into SC. As a result, weak buoyancy will develop in both of these regions. With higher PWs noted along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts. Even so, convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and likely concentrated in the afternoon into early-evening hours. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous states; however, an isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the ArkLaTex, and across the southern Appalachians. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern remains seasonally tranquil with mean upper ridging holding across the Rockies and a broader trough noted across the eastern US. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. Deep northwesterly flow will encourage a surface high to settle across the Midwest and the leading edge of this air mass will extend into the southern Appalachians-mid South-Arklatex. Latest model guidance suggests a surface front will arc from western NC-northern MS-northeast TX by 18z. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent across the southern Arklatex and from northern AL into SC. As a result, weak buoyancy will develop in both of these regions. With higher PWs noted along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts. Even so, convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and likely concentrated in the afternoon into early-evening hours. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/26/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260519
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located over the western portion of the eastern Pacific
basin.

Western East Pacific:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently located well
to the southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. An area of low
pressure could develop from this system over the next couple of days
as it moves into the western part of the East Pacific. Environmental
conditions are then forecast to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at
about 15 mph. This system is expected to move into the central
Pacific basin on Wednesday or Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin