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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous states; however, an isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the ArkLaTex, and across the southern Appalachians. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern remains seasonally tranquil with mean upper ridging holding across the Rockies and a broader trough noted across the eastern US. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. Deep northwesterly flow will encourage a surface high to settle across the Midwest and the leading edge of this air mass will extend into the southern Appalachians-mid South-Arklatex. Latest model guidance suggests a surface front will arc from western NC-northern MS-northeast TX by 18z. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent across the southern Arklatex and from northern AL into SC. As a result, weak buoyancy will develop in both of these regions. With higher PWs noted along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts. Even so, convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and likely concentrated in the afternoon into early-evening hours. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/26/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260519
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located over the western portion of the eastern Pacific
basin.

Western East Pacific:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently located well
to the southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. An area of low
pressure could develop from this system over the next couple of days
as it moves into the western part of the East Pacific. Environmental
conditions are then forecast to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at
about 15 mph. This system is expected to move into the central
Pacific basin on Wednesday or Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 02:33:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 03:22:40 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 275 WTPZ42 KNHC 260233 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Kristy's deepest convection is being displaced to the north of the center due to strong southerly shear, diagnosed at 30 kt by UW-CIMSS, although some convective elements are still trying to form within the southern eyewall. Subjective Dvorak CI numbers and objective satellite estimates now range between 80-100 kt, and Kristy's intensity is therefore set at a blend of 90 kt. Rapid weakening is forecast to continue as the hurricane encounters even stronger shear--and cooler sea surface temperatures--over the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows previous official forecast trends and the latest consensus aids. Model-simulated satellite data indicate that Kristy should lose its deep convection by Sunday, and the cyclone is therefore expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours. The low is forecast to open up into a trough on Monday. Kristy is moving northwestward (310/13 kt), steered by a strong mid-level ridge centered over the Baja California peninsula. The ridge should keep Kristy on a northwestward or north-northwestward trajectory for the next 36 hours, but once the cyclone weakens to a remnant low, it is expected to turn westward and slow down considerably when it runs into a low-level ridge to the north. The track models are in good agreement on this scenario, and no significant track changes were made from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 17.6N 126.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.9N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 20.9N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 22.4N 130.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 22.7N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 260232 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 126.9W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 126.9W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.4W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.9N 128.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.9N 129.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.4N 130.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.7N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 126.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG=

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 260232 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 7 43(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 20N 130W 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 260232 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 ...KRISTY WEAKENING RAPIDLY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 126.9W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 126.9 West. Kristy is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through early Sunday, followed by a turn toward the west by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next couple of days, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...KRISTY WEAKENING RAPIDLY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 the center of Kristy was located near 17.6, -126.9 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is fairly low tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude, positive-tilt short-wave trough is progressing across the Appalachians early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms developed ahead of this feature earlier today, but nocturnal cooling and weak buoyancy are now inhibiting deeper updrafts, as is the passage of the short wave. Even so, surface front trails across southeast MO-northern AR-southeast OK-north TX, and this may provide sufficient convergence for weak convection. Weak instability continues along this portion of the front and a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out with deeper updrafts, primarily for the next few hours. Otherwise, the probability for thunderstorms is generally less than 10%. ..Darrow.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is fairly low tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude, positive-tilt short-wave trough is progressing across the Appalachians early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms developed ahead of this feature earlier today, but nocturnal cooling and weak buoyancy are now inhibiting deeper updrafts, as is the passage of the short wave. Even so, surface front trails across southeast MO-northern AR-southeast OK-north TX, and this may provide sufficient convergence for weak convection. Weak instability continues along this portion of the front and a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out with deeper updrafts, primarily for the next few hours. Otherwise, the probability for thunderstorms is generally less than 10%. ..Darrow.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is fairly low tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude, positive-tilt short-wave trough is progressing across the Appalachians early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms developed ahead of this feature earlier today, but nocturnal cooling and weak buoyancy are now inhibiting deeper updrafts, as is the passage of the short wave. Even so, surface front trails across southeast MO-northern AR-southeast OK-north TX, and this may provide sufficient convergence for weak convection. Weak instability continues along this portion of the front and a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out with deeper updrafts, primarily for the next few hours. Otherwise, the probability for thunderstorms is generally less than 10%. ..Darrow.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is fairly low tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude, positive-tilt short-wave trough is progressing across the Appalachians early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms developed ahead of this feature earlier today, but nocturnal cooling and weak buoyancy are now inhibiting deeper updrafts, as is the passage of the short wave. Even so, surface front trails across southeast MO-northern AR-southeast OK-north TX, and this may provide sufficient convergence for weak convection. Weak instability continues along this portion of the front and a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out with deeper updrafts, primarily for the next few hours. Otherwise, the probability for thunderstorms is generally less than 10%. ..Darrow.. 10/26/2024 Read more

Gov. Lamont declared a state of emergency for Connecticut due to drought, increased fire risk and fire activity. Connecticut residents were urged to avoid outdoor burning amid the critical fire weather. WTNH (New Haven, Ct.), Oct 25, 2024

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 25 22:19:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 25 22:19:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level trough will move into the West with an amplified ridge shifting over the central/eastern US by mid next week. Well above normal temperatures will accompany the shifting ridge ahead of the trough, with strong southerly return flow across the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push south and east through the West by early next week and much of the Plains mid-next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northeast... On Day 3/Sunday, dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast with locally critical conditions possible. Flow appears to weaken further on Day 4/Monday, but near critically low RH is likely to continue across portions of the coastal Northeast. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... As the upper-level trough moves into the West, downslope flow will increase across portions of the northern/central High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Locally critical conditions are likely as west-southerly winds increase amid lee troughing and downslope flow. These conditions may continue on Day 4/Monday, but forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the cold front and development of potential critical conditions from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. On Day 4/Monday, dry/breezy winds will develop ahead of the cold front in portions of the southern Great Basin into the Southwest, with locally elevated to locally critical conditions likely. Lee troughing amid downslope flow will also result in dry/breezy conditions on portions of the southern High Plains behind a sharpening dryline. A relatively narrow corridor of elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely to develop on Day 5/Tuesday from southern New Mexico/southwest Texas into southwest Kansas. Preclusion of 70% probabilities or further expansion of 40% probabilities in the southern Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains are due to: 1) forecast high clouds, which is a known failure mode for critical conditions developing in these areas; 2) moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico amid strengthening southerly flow on the southern/central Plains; and 3) fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall and fuel availability in fuel limited ecosystems in potential outlook areas. For the Midwest and Great Lakes, strengthening southerly flow could increase fire weather concerns, but current forecast guidance has most areas of concern with non-critical RH. If the southerly return flow is drier, outlook areas will be considered in subsequent issuances. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 7/Thursday: southern California... Offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California on Day 5/Tuesday into Day 7/Thursday. However, potential preceding precipitation and onshore flow coupled with a short period of weak Santa Ana/offshore winds preclude introducing probabilities currently. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level trough will move into the West with an amplified ridge shifting over the central/eastern US by mid next week. Well above normal temperatures will accompany the shifting ridge ahead of the trough, with strong southerly return flow across the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push south and east through the West by early next week and much of the Plains mid-next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northeast... On Day 3/Sunday, dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast with locally critical conditions possible. Flow appears to weaken further on Day 4/Monday, but near critically low RH is likely to continue across portions of the coastal Northeast. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... As the upper-level trough moves into the West, downslope flow will increase across portions of the northern/central High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Locally critical conditions are likely as west-southerly winds increase amid lee troughing and downslope flow. These conditions may continue on Day 4/Monday, but forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the cold front and development of potential critical conditions from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. On Day 4/Monday, dry/breezy winds will develop ahead of the cold front in portions of the southern Great Basin into the Southwest, with locally elevated to locally critical conditions likely. Lee troughing amid downslope flow will also result in dry/breezy conditions on portions of the southern High Plains behind a sharpening dryline. A relatively narrow corridor of elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely to develop on Day 5/Tuesday from southern New Mexico/southwest Texas into southwest Kansas. Preclusion of 70% probabilities or further expansion of 40% probabilities in the southern Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains are due to: 1) forecast high clouds, which is a known failure mode for critical conditions developing in these areas; 2) moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico amid strengthening southerly flow on the southern/central Plains; and 3) fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall and fuel availability in fuel limited ecosystems in potential outlook areas. For the Midwest and Great Lakes, strengthening southerly flow could increase fire weather concerns, but current forecast guidance has most areas of concern with non-critical RH. If the southerly return flow is drier, outlook areas will be considered in subsequent issuances. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 7/Thursday: southern California... Offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California on Day 5/Tuesday into Day 7/Thursday. However, potential preceding precipitation and onshore flow coupled with a short period of weak Santa Ana/offshore winds preclude introducing probabilities currently. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level trough will move into the West with an amplified ridge shifting over the central/eastern US by mid next week. Well above normal temperatures will accompany the shifting ridge ahead of the trough, with strong southerly return flow across the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push south and east through the West by early next week and much of the Plains mid-next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northeast... On Day 3/Sunday, dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast with locally critical conditions possible. Flow appears to weaken further on Day 4/Monday, but near critically low RH is likely to continue across portions of the coastal Northeast. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... As the upper-level trough moves into the West, downslope flow will increase across portions of the northern/central High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Locally critical conditions are likely as west-southerly winds increase amid lee troughing and downslope flow. These conditions may continue on Day 4/Monday, but forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the cold front and development of potential critical conditions from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. On Day 4/Monday, dry/breezy winds will develop ahead of the cold front in portions of the southern Great Basin into the Southwest, with locally elevated to locally critical conditions likely. Lee troughing amid downslope flow will also result in dry/breezy conditions on portions of the southern High Plains behind a sharpening dryline. A relatively narrow corridor of elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely to develop on Day 5/Tuesday from southern New Mexico/southwest Texas into southwest Kansas. Preclusion of 70% probabilities or further expansion of 40% probabilities in the southern Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains are due to: 1) forecast high clouds, which is a known failure mode for critical conditions developing in these areas; 2) moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico amid strengthening southerly flow on the southern/central Plains; and 3) fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall and fuel availability in fuel limited ecosystems in potential outlook areas. For the Midwest and Great Lakes, strengthening southerly flow could increase fire weather concerns, but current forecast guidance has most areas of concern with non-critical RH. If the southerly return flow is drier, outlook areas will be considered in subsequent issuances. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 7/Thursday: southern California... Offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California on Day 5/Tuesday into Day 7/Thursday. However, potential preceding precipitation and onshore flow coupled with a short period of weak Santa Ana/offshore winds preclude introducing probabilities currently. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level trough will move into the West with an amplified ridge shifting over the central/eastern US by mid next week. Well above normal temperatures will accompany the shifting ridge ahead of the trough, with strong southerly return flow across the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push south and east through the West by early next week and much of the Plains mid-next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northeast... On Day 3/Sunday, dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast with locally critical conditions possible. Flow appears to weaken further on Day 4/Monday, but near critically low RH is likely to continue across portions of the coastal Northeast. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... As the upper-level trough moves into the West, downslope flow will increase across portions of the northern/central High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Locally critical conditions are likely as west-southerly winds increase amid lee troughing and downslope flow. These conditions may continue on Day 4/Monday, but forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the cold front and development of potential critical conditions from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. On Day 4/Monday, dry/breezy winds will develop ahead of the cold front in portions of the southern Great Basin into the Southwest, with locally elevated to locally critical conditions likely. Lee troughing amid downslope flow will also result in dry/breezy conditions on portions of the southern High Plains behind a sharpening dryline. A relatively narrow corridor of elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely to develop on Day 5/Tuesday from southern New Mexico/southwest Texas into southwest Kansas. Preclusion of 70% probabilities or further expansion of 40% probabilities in the southern Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains are due to: 1) forecast high clouds, which is a known failure mode for critical conditions developing in these areas; 2) moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico amid strengthening southerly flow on the southern/central Plains; and 3) fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall and fuel availability in fuel limited ecosystems in potential outlook areas. For the Midwest and Great Lakes, strengthening southerly flow could increase fire weather concerns, but current forecast guidance has most areas of concern with non-critical RH. If the southerly return flow is drier, outlook areas will be considered in subsequent issuances. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 7/Thursday: southern California... Offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California on Day 5/Tuesday into Day 7/Thursday. However, potential preceding precipitation and onshore flow coupled with a short period of weak Santa Ana/offshore winds preclude introducing probabilities currently. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level trough will move into the West with an amplified ridge shifting over the central/eastern US by mid next week. Well above normal temperatures will accompany the shifting ridge ahead of the trough, with strong southerly return flow across the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push south and east through the West by early next week and much of the Plains mid-next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northeast... On Day 3/Sunday, dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast with locally critical conditions possible. Flow appears to weaken further on Day 4/Monday, but near critically low RH is likely to continue across portions of the coastal Northeast. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... As the upper-level trough moves into the West, downslope flow will increase across portions of the northern/central High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Locally critical conditions are likely as west-southerly winds increase amid lee troughing and downslope flow. These conditions may continue on Day 4/Monday, but forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the cold front and development of potential critical conditions from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. On Day 4/Monday, dry/breezy winds will develop ahead of the cold front in portions of the southern Great Basin into the Southwest, with locally elevated to locally critical conditions likely. Lee troughing amid downslope flow will also result in dry/breezy conditions on portions of the southern High Plains behind a sharpening dryline. A relatively narrow corridor of elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely to develop on Day 5/Tuesday from southern New Mexico/southwest Texas into southwest Kansas. Preclusion of 70% probabilities or further expansion of 40% probabilities in the southern Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains are due to: 1) forecast high clouds, which is a known failure mode for critical conditions developing in these areas; 2) moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico amid strengthening southerly flow on the southern/central Plains; and 3) fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall and fuel availability in fuel limited ecosystems in potential outlook areas. For the Midwest and Great Lakes, strengthening southerly flow could increase fire weather concerns, but current forecast guidance has most areas of concern with non-critical RH. If the southerly return flow is drier, outlook areas will be considered in subsequent issuances. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 7/Thursday: southern California... Offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California on Day 5/Tuesday into Day 7/Thursday. However, potential preceding precipitation and onshore flow coupled with a short period of weak Santa Ana/offshore winds preclude introducing probabilities currently. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more