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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will dominate the CONUS D2/Saturday as the upper-level flow pattern amplifies. The prior cold front will continue eastward with trailing high pressure remaining over the central CONUS. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Local fire-weather concerns could develop, but are not expected to be widespread. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the upper ridge shifts east, westerly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains beginning early Saturday. As a result, weak lee troughing should develop and encourage breezy winds across parts of the Front Range and the High Plains. While not overly strong, periodic 15-20 mph surface winds and downslope drying will support RH values as low as 20-25%. The occasional stronger winds may overlap with areas of receptive fuels supporting a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, with only sporadic winds and marginal RH, more widespread fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Northeast... In the wake of the cold front moving offshore, a cooler, but still dry and breezy air mass may develop over parts of the Northeast Saturday. As the ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly and intensify. This should support dry offshore flow over much of the East Coast. While RH values may not be overly low, a few hours of RH below 30% appear likely given the dry origins of the continental air mass. With little recent rainfall, area fuels are quite dry. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, despite marginal winds and RH. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will dominate the CONUS D2/Saturday as the upper-level flow pattern amplifies. The prior cold front will continue eastward with trailing high pressure remaining over the central CONUS. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Local fire-weather concerns could develop, but are not expected to be widespread. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the upper ridge shifts east, westerly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains beginning early Saturday. As a result, weak lee troughing should develop and encourage breezy winds across parts of the Front Range and the High Plains. While not overly strong, periodic 15-20 mph surface winds and downslope drying will support RH values as low as 20-25%. The occasional stronger winds may overlap with areas of receptive fuels supporting a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, with only sporadic winds and marginal RH, more widespread fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Northeast... In the wake of the cold front moving offshore, a cooler, but still dry and breezy air mass may develop over parts of the Northeast Saturday. As the ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly and intensify. This should support dry offshore flow over much of the East Coast. While RH values may not be overly low, a few hours of RH below 30% appear likely given the dry origins of the continental air mass. With little recent rainfall, area fuels are quite dry. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, despite marginal winds and RH. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will dominate the CONUS D2/Saturday as the upper-level flow pattern amplifies. The prior cold front will continue eastward with trailing high pressure remaining over the central CONUS. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Local fire-weather concerns could develop, but are not expected to be widespread. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the upper ridge shifts east, westerly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains beginning early Saturday. As a result, weak lee troughing should develop and encourage breezy winds across parts of the Front Range and the High Plains. While not overly strong, periodic 15-20 mph surface winds and downslope drying will support RH values as low as 20-25%. The occasional stronger winds may overlap with areas of receptive fuels supporting a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, with only sporadic winds and marginal RH, more widespread fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Northeast... In the wake of the cold front moving offshore, a cooler, but still dry and breezy air mass may develop over parts of the Northeast Saturday. As the ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly and intensify. This should support dry offshore flow over much of the East Coast. While RH values may not be overly low, a few hours of RH below 30% appear likely given the dry origins of the continental air mass. With little recent rainfall, area fuels are quite dry. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, despite marginal winds and RH. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid/upper trough will progress eastward from the western U.S. to the Upper Midwest Days 4-7/Mon-Thu. As this occurs, a belt of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the southern/central Plains to the upper MS Valley on Day 5/Tue, and much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Day 6/Wed. In response, a series of surface lows will migrate across the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Days 5-6/Tue-Wed. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 50s to possibly low 60s F dewpoints northward across the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley during this time. Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tue in this warm advection regime ahead of the trough, and into Day 6/Wed as a cold front is forecast to progress eastward over the central CONUS. Given strong deep-layer southwesterly flow and increasing boundary-layer moisture to aid in destabilization, some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. However, capping may preclude a greater severe risk on Day 5/Tue as midlevel temperatures are forecast to be fairly warm. By Day 6/Wed, strong large-scale ascent may be lifting into the Great Lakes/Canada and out of phase with better low-level moisture and modest instability. Given uncertainty, will not introduce any 15 percent delineations at this time, but outlook areas may be needed in subsequent outlooks for parts of the central Plains to Upper Midwest vicinity around Days 5-6/Tue-Wed. Toward the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may eject from the western U.S. into the Plains. However, large spread in timing and position of this feature is resulting in low predictability from Day 7/Thu and beyond. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid/upper trough will progress eastward from the western U.S. to the Upper Midwest Days 4-7/Mon-Thu. As this occurs, a belt of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the southern/central Plains to the upper MS Valley on Day 5/Tue, and much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Day 6/Wed. In response, a series of surface lows will migrate across the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Days 5-6/Tue-Wed. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 50s to possibly low 60s F dewpoints northward across the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley during this time. Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tue in this warm advection regime ahead of the trough, and into Day 6/Wed as a cold front is forecast to progress eastward over the central CONUS. Given strong deep-layer southwesterly flow and increasing boundary-layer moisture to aid in destabilization, some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. However, capping may preclude a greater severe risk on Day 5/Tue as midlevel temperatures are forecast to be fairly warm. By Day 6/Wed, strong large-scale ascent may be lifting into the Great Lakes/Canada and out of phase with better low-level moisture and modest instability. Given uncertainty, will not introduce any 15 percent delineations at this time, but outlook areas may be needed in subsequent outlooks for parts of the central Plains to Upper Midwest vicinity around Days 5-6/Tue-Wed. Toward the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may eject from the western U.S. into the Plains. However, large spread in timing and position of this feature is resulting in low predictability from Day 7/Thu and beyond. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid/upper trough will progress eastward from the western U.S. to the Upper Midwest Days 4-7/Mon-Thu. As this occurs, a belt of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the southern/central Plains to the upper MS Valley on Day 5/Tue, and much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Day 6/Wed. In response, a series of surface lows will migrate across the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Days 5-6/Tue-Wed. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 50s to possibly low 60s F dewpoints northward across the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley during this time. Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tue in this warm advection regime ahead of the trough, and into Day 6/Wed as a cold front is forecast to progress eastward over the central CONUS. Given strong deep-layer southwesterly flow and increasing boundary-layer moisture to aid in destabilization, some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. However, capping may preclude a greater severe risk on Day 5/Tue as midlevel temperatures are forecast to be fairly warm. By Day 6/Wed, strong large-scale ascent may be lifting into the Great Lakes/Canada and out of phase with better low-level moisture and modest instability. Given uncertainty, will not introduce any 15 percent delineations at this time, but outlook areas may be needed in subsequent outlooks for parts of the central Plains to Upper Midwest vicinity around Days 5-6/Tue-Wed. Toward the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may eject from the western U.S. into the Plains. However, large spread in timing and position of this feature is resulting in low predictability from Day 7/Thu and beyond. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid/upper trough will progress eastward from the western U.S. to the Upper Midwest Days 4-7/Mon-Thu. As this occurs, a belt of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the southern/central Plains to the upper MS Valley on Day 5/Tue, and much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Day 6/Wed. In response, a series of surface lows will migrate across the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Days 5-6/Tue-Wed. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 50s to possibly low 60s F dewpoints northward across the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley during this time. Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tue in this warm advection regime ahead of the trough, and into Day 6/Wed as a cold front is forecast to progress eastward over the central CONUS. Given strong deep-layer southwesterly flow and increasing boundary-layer moisture to aid in destabilization, some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. However, capping may preclude a greater severe risk on Day 5/Tue as midlevel temperatures are forecast to be fairly warm. By Day 6/Wed, strong large-scale ascent may be lifting into the Great Lakes/Canada and out of phase with better low-level moisture and modest instability. Given uncertainty, will not introduce any 15 percent delineations at this time, but outlook areas may be needed in subsequent outlooks for parts of the central Plains to Upper Midwest vicinity around Days 5-6/Tue-Wed. Toward the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may eject from the western U.S. into the Plains. However, large spread in timing and position of this feature is resulting in low predictability from Day 7/Thu and beyond. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid/upper trough will progress eastward from the western U.S. to the Upper Midwest Days 4-7/Mon-Thu. As this occurs, a belt of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the southern/central Plains to the upper MS Valley on Day 5/Tue, and much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Day 6/Wed. In response, a series of surface lows will migrate across the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Days 5-6/Tue-Wed. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 50s to possibly low 60s F dewpoints northward across the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley during this time. Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tue in this warm advection regime ahead of the trough, and into Day 6/Wed as a cold front is forecast to progress eastward over the central CONUS. Given strong deep-layer southwesterly flow and increasing boundary-layer moisture to aid in destabilization, some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. However, capping may preclude a greater severe risk on Day 5/Tue as midlevel temperatures are forecast to be fairly warm. By Day 6/Wed, strong large-scale ascent may be lifting into the Great Lakes/Canada and out of phase with better low-level moisture and modest instability. Given uncertainty, will not introduce any 15 percent delineations at this time, but outlook areas may be needed in subsequent outlooks for parts of the central Plains to Upper Midwest vicinity around Days 5-6/Tue-Wed. Toward the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may eject from the western U.S. into the Plains. However, large spread in timing and position of this feature is resulting in low predictability from Day 7/Thu and beyond. Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Widespread fire-weather concerns are unlikely over the CONUS today and tonight. A cold front is forecast to move eastward from the central US. Behind the front, high pressure will intensify, bolstering gusty northerly winds to 10-20 mph across the southern/central Plains. While dry, cooler temperatures should keep diurnal RH minimums above critical criteria. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions may develop closer to the front over parts of OK, KS, and TX, but widespread and sustained fire-weather conditions are not expected. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Widespread fire-weather concerns are unlikely over the CONUS today and tonight. A cold front is forecast to move eastward from the central US. Behind the front, high pressure will intensify, bolstering gusty northerly winds to 10-20 mph across the southern/central Plains. While dry, cooler temperatures should keep diurnal RH minimums above critical criteria. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions may develop closer to the front over parts of OK, KS, and TX, but widespread and sustained fire-weather conditions are not expected. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Widespread fire-weather concerns are unlikely over the CONUS today and tonight. A cold front is forecast to move eastward from the central US. Behind the front, high pressure will intensify, bolstering gusty northerly winds to 10-20 mph across the southern/central Plains. While dry, cooler temperatures should keep diurnal RH minimums above critical criteria. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions may develop closer to the front over parts of OK, KS, and TX, but widespread and sustained fire-weather conditions are not expected. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Widespread fire-weather concerns are unlikely over the CONUS today and tonight. A cold front is forecast to move eastward from the central US. Behind the front, high pressure will intensify, bolstering gusty northerly winds to 10-20 mph across the southern/central Plains. While dry, cooler temperatures should keep diurnal RH minimums above critical criteria. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions may develop closer to the front over parts of OK, KS, and TX, but widespread and sustained fire-weather conditions are not expected. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Widespread fire-weather concerns are unlikely over the CONUS today and tonight. A cold front is forecast to move eastward from the central US. Behind the front, high pressure will intensify, bolstering gusty northerly winds to 10-20 mph across the southern/central Plains. While dry, cooler temperatures should keep diurnal RH minimums above critical criteria. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions may develop closer to the front over parts of OK, KS, and TX, but widespread and sustained fire-weather conditions are not expected. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across parts of the Pacific Northwest coastal vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will move over the Pacific Coast states on Sunday. As this occurs, cooling aloft will result in steepening lapse rates and weak elevated instability, especially over the Pacific Northwest. Increasing midlevel moisture will further support isolated thunderstorms near the WA/OR and northern CA coasts. Further east, a broad upper ridge will migrate across the Plains to the MS Valley. Surface high pressure will maintain a mostly dry airmass east of the MS River. However, a strengthening surface trough over the Plains in response to the departing upper ridge and approaching western upper trough will result in some northward transport of modest Gulf moisture on southerly low-level flow. However, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across parts of the Pacific Northwest coastal vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will move over the Pacific Coast states on Sunday. As this occurs, cooling aloft will result in steepening lapse rates and weak elevated instability, especially over the Pacific Northwest. Increasing midlevel moisture will further support isolated thunderstorms near the WA/OR and northern CA coasts. Further east, a broad upper ridge will migrate across the Plains to the MS Valley. Surface high pressure will maintain a mostly dry airmass east of the MS River. However, a strengthening surface trough over the Plains in response to the departing upper ridge and approaching western upper trough will result in some northward transport of modest Gulf moisture on southerly low-level flow. However, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across parts of the Pacific Northwest coastal vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will move over the Pacific Coast states on Sunday. As this occurs, cooling aloft will result in steepening lapse rates and weak elevated instability, especially over the Pacific Northwest. Increasing midlevel moisture will further support isolated thunderstorms near the WA/OR and northern CA coasts. Further east, a broad upper ridge will migrate across the Plains to the MS Valley. Surface high pressure will maintain a mostly dry airmass east of the MS River. However, a strengthening surface trough over the Plains in response to the departing upper ridge and approaching western upper trough will result in some northward transport of modest Gulf moisture on southerly low-level flow. However, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across parts of the Pacific Northwest coastal vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will move over the Pacific Coast states on Sunday. As this occurs, cooling aloft will result in steepening lapse rates and weak elevated instability, especially over the Pacific Northwest. Increasing midlevel moisture will further support isolated thunderstorms near the WA/OR and northern CA coasts. Further east, a broad upper ridge will migrate across the Plains to the MS Valley. Surface high pressure will maintain a mostly dry airmass east of the MS River. However, a strengthening surface trough over the Plains in response to the departing upper ridge and approaching western upper trough will result in some northward transport of modest Gulf moisture on southerly low-level flow. However, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across parts of the Pacific Northwest coastal vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will move over the Pacific Coast states on Sunday. As this occurs, cooling aloft will result in steepening lapse rates and weak elevated instability, especially over the Pacific Northwest. Increasing midlevel moisture will further support isolated thunderstorms near the WA/OR and northern CA coasts. Further east, a broad upper ridge will migrate across the Plains to the MS Valley. Surface high pressure will maintain a mostly dry airmass east of the MS River. However, a strengthening surface trough over the Plains in response to the departing upper ridge and approaching western upper trough will result in some northward transport of modest Gulf moisture on southerly low-level flow. However, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low today. ...Discussion... Deamplification of the lower MO Valley short-wave trough is expected to continue through the day1 period as this feature progresses across the OH Valley into the northern middle Atlantic after 26/00z. In response to this short wave, a weak surface low will track across the mid MS Valley early, then lose its identity as a pronounced surface front advances southeast. This boundary will serve as one focus for potential convective development, along with warm advection. Modest boundary-layer heating is expected to result in weak buoyancy ahead of the front; although, weak instability will also be noted within the warm advection zone. In both cases, it appears some risk for lightning will be noted with the deeper updrafts. Forecast soundings suggest parcels will exceed levels necessary for lightning discharge but the threat of severe appears low, namely due to weak instability. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low today. ...Discussion... Deamplification of the lower MO Valley short-wave trough is expected to continue through the day1 period as this feature progresses across the OH Valley into the northern middle Atlantic after 26/00z. In response to this short wave, a weak surface low will track across the mid MS Valley early, then lose its identity as a pronounced surface front advances southeast. This boundary will serve as one focus for potential convective development, along with warm advection. Modest boundary-layer heating is expected to result in weak buoyancy ahead of the front; although, weak instability will also be noted within the warm advection zone. In both cases, it appears some risk for lightning will be noted with the deeper updrafts. Forecast soundings suggest parcels will exceed levels necessary for lightning discharge but the threat of severe appears low, namely due to weak instability. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/25/2024 Read more