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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z Latest high-resolution forecast guidance indicates that elevated conditions are likely from Maryland/Delaware northward through Massachusetts. Minimum RH of 25-35% with northwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph are expected tomorrow across this area. Additionally, record high fire danger will result in locally critical conditions, most likely in portions of New Jersey/vicinity. An Elevated area was also added for portions of Wyoming where near critical winds/RH will overlap dry fuels. Locally elevated winds/RH may extend into portions of western Nebraska/South Dakota as well. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will dominate the CONUS D2/Saturday as the upper-level flow pattern amplifies. The prior cold front will continue eastward with trailing high pressure remaining over the central CONUS. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Local fire-weather concerns could develop, but are not expected to be widespread. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the upper ridge shifts east, westerly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains beginning early Saturday. As a result, weak lee troughing should develop and encourage breezy winds across parts of the Front Range and the High Plains. While not overly strong, periodic 15-20 mph surface winds and downslope drying will support RH values as low as 20-25%. The occasional stronger winds may overlap with areas of receptive fuels supporting a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, with only sporadic winds and marginal RH, more widespread fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Northeast... In the wake of the cold front moving offshore, a cooler, but still dry and breezy air mass may develop over parts of the Northeast Saturday. As the ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly and intensify. This should support dry offshore flow over much of the East Coast. While RH values may not be overly low, a few hours of RH below 30% appear likely given the dry origins of the continental air mass. With little recent rainfall, area fuels are quite dry. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, despite marginal winds and RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z Latest high-resolution forecast guidance indicates that elevated conditions are likely from Maryland/Delaware northward through Massachusetts. Minimum RH of 25-35% with northwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph are expected tomorrow across this area. Additionally, record high fire danger will result in locally critical conditions, most likely in portions of New Jersey/vicinity. An Elevated area was also added for portions of Wyoming where near critical winds/RH will overlap dry fuels. Locally elevated winds/RH may extend into portions of western Nebraska/South Dakota as well. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will dominate the CONUS D2/Saturday as the upper-level flow pattern amplifies. The prior cold front will continue eastward with trailing high pressure remaining over the central CONUS. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Local fire-weather concerns could develop, but are not expected to be widespread. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the upper ridge shifts east, westerly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains beginning early Saturday. As a result, weak lee troughing should develop and encourage breezy winds across parts of the Front Range and the High Plains. While not overly strong, periodic 15-20 mph surface winds and downslope drying will support RH values as low as 20-25%. The occasional stronger winds may overlap with areas of receptive fuels supporting a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, with only sporadic winds and marginal RH, more widespread fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Northeast... In the wake of the cold front moving offshore, a cooler, but still dry and breezy air mass may develop over parts of the Northeast Saturday. As the ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly and intensify. This should support dry offshore flow over much of the East Coast. While RH values may not be overly low, a few hours of RH below 30% appear likely given the dry origins of the continental air mass. With little recent rainfall, area fuels are quite dry. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, despite marginal winds and RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z Latest high-resolution forecast guidance indicates that elevated conditions are likely from Maryland/Delaware northward through Massachusetts. Minimum RH of 25-35% with northwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph are expected tomorrow across this area. Additionally, record high fire danger will result in locally critical conditions, most likely in portions of New Jersey/vicinity. An Elevated area was also added for portions of Wyoming where near critical winds/RH will overlap dry fuels. Locally elevated winds/RH may extend into portions of western Nebraska/South Dakota as well. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will dominate the CONUS D2/Saturday as the upper-level flow pattern amplifies. The prior cold front will continue eastward with trailing high pressure remaining over the central CONUS. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Local fire-weather concerns could develop, but are not expected to be widespread. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the upper ridge shifts east, westerly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains beginning early Saturday. As a result, weak lee troughing should develop and encourage breezy winds across parts of the Front Range and the High Plains. While not overly strong, periodic 15-20 mph surface winds and downslope drying will support RH values as low as 20-25%. The occasional stronger winds may overlap with areas of receptive fuels supporting a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, with only sporadic winds and marginal RH, more widespread fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Northeast... In the wake of the cold front moving offshore, a cooler, but still dry and breezy air mass may develop over parts of the Northeast Saturday. As the ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly and intensify. This should support dry offshore flow over much of the East Coast. While RH values may not be overly low, a few hours of RH below 30% appear likely given the dry origins of the continental air mass. With little recent rainfall, area fuels are quite dry. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, despite marginal winds and RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z Latest high-resolution forecast guidance indicates that elevated conditions are likely from Maryland/Delaware northward through Massachusetts. Minimum RH of 25-35% with northwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph are expected tomorrow across this area. Additionally, record high fire danger will result in locally critical conditions, most likely in portions of New Jersey/vicinity. An Elevated area was also added for portions of Wyoming where near critical winds/RH will overlap dry fuels. Locally elevated winds/RH may extend into portions of western Nebraska/South Dakota as well. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will dominate the CONUS D2/Saturday as the upper-level flow pattern amplifies. The prior cold front will continue eastward with trailing high pressure remaining over the central CONUS. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Local fire-weather concerns could develop, but are not expected to be widespread. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the upper ridge shifts east, westerly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains beginning early Saturday. As a result, weak lee troughing should develop and encourage breezy winds across parts of the Front Range and the High Plains. While not overly strong, periodic 15-20 mph surface winds and downslope drying will support RH values as low as 20-25%. The occasional stronger winds may overlap with areas of receptive fuels supporting a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, with only sporadic winds and marginal RH, more widespread fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Northeast... In the wake of the cold front moving offshore, a cooler, but still dry and breezy air mass may develop over parts of the Northeast Saturday. As the ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly and intensify. This should support dry offshore flow over much of the East Coast. While RH values may not be overly low, a few hours of RH below 30% appear likely given the dry origins of the continental air mass. With little recent rainfall, area fuels are quite dry. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, despite marginal winds and RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z Latest high-resolution forecast guidance indicates that elevated conditions are likely from Maryland/Delaware northward through Massachusetts. Minimum RH of 25-35% with northwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph are expected tomorrow across this area. Additionally, record high fire danger will result in locally critical conditions, most likely in portions of New Jersey/vicinity. An Elevated area was also added for portions of Wyoming where near critical winds/RH will overlap dry fuels. Locally elevated winds/RH may extend into portions of western Nebraska/South Dakota as well. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will dominate the CONUS D2/Saturday as the upper-level flow pattern amplifies. The prior cold front will continue eastward with trailing high pressure remaining over the central CONUS. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Local fire-weather concerns could develop, but are not expected to be widespread. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the upper ridge shifts east, westerly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains beginning early Saturday. As a result, weak lee troughing should develop and encourage breezy winds across parts of the Front Range and the High Plains. While not overly strong, periodic 15-20 mph surface winds and downslope drying will support RH values as low as 20-25%. The occasional stronger winds may overlap with areas of receptive fuels supporting a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, with only sporadic winds and marginal RH, more widespread fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Northeast... In the wake of the cold front moving offshore, a cooler, but still dry and breezy air mass may develop over parts of the Northeast Saturday. As the ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly and intensify. This should support dry offshore flow over much of the East Coast. While RH values may not be overly low, a few hours of RH below 30% appear likely given the dry origins of the continental air mass. With little recent rainfall, area fuels are quite dry. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, despite marginal winds and RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous states on Saturday. An isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the ArkLaTex. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will sharpen over the Rockies on Saturday as a large upper trough over the Great Lakes shifts east, and another upper trough spreads into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. High pressure will be prominent from the Plains into the Midwest, and over much of the intermountain west during the day. In the wake of the northeastern trough, a weak front is forecast to extend roughly from the TN Valley into TX, with an area of 60s F dewpoints extending northward toward the ArkLaTex. While lift will be weak, heating within the moist plume will result in an uncapped air mass, and a few daytime thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Severe weather is unlikely as shear will be weak, and midlevel lapse rates poor. Elsewhere, increasing large-scale ascent across the Pacific Northwest with substantial cooling aloft will occur overnight, with low-topped convection primarily offshore. ..Jewell.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous states on Saturday. An isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the ArkLaTex. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will sharpen over the Rockies on Saturday as a large upper trough over the Great Lakes shifts east, and another upper trough spreads into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. High pressure will be prominent from the Plains into the Midwest, and over much of the intermountain west during the day. In the wake of the northeastern trough, a weak front is forecast to extend roughly from the TN Valley into TX, with an area of 60s F dewpoints extending northward toward the ArkLaTex. While lift will be weak, heating within the moist plume will result in an uncapped air mass, and a few daytime thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Severe weather is unlikely as shear will be weak, and midlevel lapse rates poor. Elsewhere, increasing large-scale ascent across the Pacific Northwest with substantial cooling aloft will occur overnight, with low-topped convection primarily offshore. ..Jewell.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous states on Saturday. An isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the ArkLaTex. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will sharpen over the Rockies on Saturday as a large upper trough over the Great Lakes shifts east, and another upper trough spreads into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. High pressure will be prominent from the Plains into the Midwest, and over much of the intermountain west during the day. In the wake of the northeastern trough, a weak front is forecast to extend roughly from the TN Valley into TX, with an area of 60s F dewpoints extending northward toward the ArkLaTex. While lift will be weak, heating within the moist plume will result in an uncapped air mass, and a few daytime thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Severe weather is unlikely as shear will be weak, and midlevel lapse rates poor. Elsewhere, increasing large-scale ascent across the Pacific Northwest with substantial cooling aloft will occur overnight, with low-topped convection primarily offshore. ..Jewell.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous states on Saturday. An isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the ArkLaTex. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will sharpen over the Rockies on Saturday as a large upper trough over the Great Lakes shifts east, and another upper trough spreads into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. High pressure will be prominent from the Plains into the Midwest, and over much of the intermountain west during the day. In the wake of the northeastern trough, a weak front is forecast to extend roughly from the TN Valley into TX, with an area of 60s F dewpoints extending northward toward the ArkLaTex. While lift will be weak, heating within the moist plume will result in an uncapped air mass, and a few daytime thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Severe weather is unlikely as shear will be weak, and midlevel lapse rates poor. Elsewhere, increasing large-scale ascent across the Pacific Northwest with substantial cooling aloft will occur overnight, with low-topped convection primarily offshore. ..Jewell.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous states on Saturday. An isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the ArkLaTex. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will sharpen over the Rockies on Saturday as a large upper trough over the Great Lakes shifts east, and another upper trough spreads into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. High pressure will be prominent from the Plains into the Midwest, and over much of the intermountain west during the day. In the wake of the northeastern trough, a weak front is forecast to extend roughly from the TN Valley into TX, with an area of 60s F dewpoints extending northward toward the ArkLaTex. While lift will be weak, heating within the moist plume will result in an uncapped air mass, and a few daytime thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Severe weather is unlikely as shear will be weak, and midlevel lapse rates poor. Elsewhere, increasing large-scale ascent across the Pacific Northwest with substantial cooling aloft will occur overnight, with low-topped convection primarily offshore. ..Jewell.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous states on Saturday. An isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the ArkLaTex. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will sharpen over the Rockies on Saturday as a large upper trough over the Great Lakes shifts east, and another upper trough spreads into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. High pressure will be prominent from the Plains into the Midwest, and over much of the intermountain west during the day. In the wake of the northeastern trough, a weak front is forecast to extend roughly from the TN Valley into TX, with an area of 60s F dewpoints extending northward toward the ArkLaTex. While lift will be weak, heating within the moist plume will result in an uncapped air mass, and a few daytime thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Severe weather is unlikely as shear will be weak, and midlevel lapse rates poor. Elsewhere, increasing large-scale ascent across the Pacific Northwest with substantial cooling aloft will occur overnight, with low-topped convection primarily offshore. ..Jewell.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous states on Saturday. An isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the ArkLaTex. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will sharpen over the Rockies on Saturday as a large upper trough over the Great Lakes shifts east, and another upper trough spreads into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. High pressure will be prominent from the Plains into the Midwest, and over much of the intermountain west during the day. In the wake of the northeastern trough, a weak front is forecast to extend roughly from the TN Valley into TX, with an area of 60s F dewpoints extending northward toward the ArkLaTex. While lift will be weak, heating within the moist plume will result in an uncapped air mass, and a few daytime thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Severe weather is unlikely as shear will be weak, and midlevel lapse rates poor. Elsewhere, increasing large-scale ascent across the Pacific Northwest with substantial cooling aloft will occur overnight, with low-topped convection primarily offshore. ..Jewell.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous states on Saturday. An isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the ArkLaTex. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will sharpen over the Rockies on Saturday as a large upper trough over the Great Lakes shifts east, and another upper trough spreads into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. High pressure will be prominent from the Plains into the Midwest, and over much of the intermountain west during the day. In the wake of the northeastern trough, a weak front is forecast to extend roughly from the TN Valley into TX, with an area of 60s F dewpoints extending northward toward the ArkLaTex. While lift will be weak, heating within the moist plume will result in an uncapped air mass, and a few daytime thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Severe weather is unlikely as shear will be weak, and midlevel lapse rates poor. Elsewhere, increasing large-scale ascent across the Pacific Northwest with substantial cooling aloft will occur overnight, with low-topped convection primarily offshore. ..Jewell.. 10/25/2024 Read more

Delaware was in a drought watch after Gov. John Carney made the announcement on Oct. 25. Delawareans were urged to limit their outdoor water use as the state has not received significant rain in weeks. Residents and non-farm businesses were also asked to voluntarily curb non-essential water use. Fire danger remained a concern.

Fewer customers were visiting a garden center in Little Rock as dry conditions made establishing new plants a challenge. The plants at the garden center also required more irrigation to sustain them between the drought and the heat. Homeowners were also taking more time to water plants to keep them alive and healthy. KARK (Little Rock, Ark.), Oct 24, 2024

Stage 3 drought restrictions took effect in San Marcos at noon on Oct. 27 because the city’s water resources, which includes the Edwards Aquifer, Canyon Lake, Alliance Regional Water Authority, and Canyon Regional Water Authority, were low, requiring immediate and substantial water conservation. Under stage 3 restrictions, water waste is prohibited, and the use of sprinklers or sprinkler systems is permitted once per week. The level of the San Marcos River has fallen to a very concerning level. KXAN (Austin, Texas), Oct 25, 2024

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A modestly amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS today, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/OH Valley. A surface cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the OH Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and TN Valley through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms should continue this afternoon across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into IN/OH to the north of a warm front across the lower OH Valley. Weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential through the period. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur across parts of the U.P. in MI and adjacent Lake Superior this evening/tonight as cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough support weak instability. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A modestly amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS today, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/OH Valley. A surface cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the OH Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and TN Valley through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms should continue this afternoon across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into IN/OH to the north of a warm front across the lower OH Valley. Weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential through the period. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur across parts of the U.P. in MI and adjacent Lake Superior this evening/tonight as cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough support weak instability. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A modestly amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS today, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/OH Valley. A surface cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the OH Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and TN Valley through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms should continue this afternoon across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into IN/OH to the north of a warm front across the lower OH Valley. Weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential through the period. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur across parts of the U.P. in MI and adjacent Lake Superior this evening/tonight as cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough support weak instability. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A modestly amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS today, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/OH Valley. A surface cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the OH Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and TN Valley through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms should continue this afternoon across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into IN/OH to the north of a warm front across the lower OH Valley. Weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential through the period. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur across parts of the U.P. in MI and adjacent Lake Superior this evening/tonight as cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough support weak instability. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/25/2024 Read more