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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low today. ...Discussion... Deamplification of the lower MO Valley short-wave trough is expected to continue through the day1 period as this feature progresses across the OH Valley into the northern middle Atlantic after 26/00z. In response to this short wave, a weak surface low will track across the mid MS Valley early, then lose its identity as a pronounced surface front advances southeast. This boundary will serve as one focus for potential convective development, along with warm advection. Modest boundary-layer heating is expected to result in weak buoyancy ahead of the front; although, weak instability will also be noted within the warm advection zone. In both cases, it appears some risk for lightning will be noted with the deeper updrafts. Forecast soundings suggest parcels will exceed levels necessary for lightning discharge but the threat of severe appears low, namely due to weak instability. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low today. ...Discussion... Deamplification of the lower MO Valley short-wave trough is expected to continue through the day1 period as this feature progresses across the OH Valley into the northern middle Atlantic after 26/00z. In response to this short wave, a weak surface low will track across the mid MS Valley early, then lose its identity as a pronounced surface front advances southeast. This boundary will serve as one focus for potential convective development, along with warm advection. Modest boundary-layer heating is expected to result in weak buoyancy ahead of the front; although, weak instability will also be noted within the warm advection zone. In both cases, it appears some risk for lightning will be noted with the deeper updrafts. Forecast soundings suggest parcels will exceed levels necessary for lightning discharge but the threat of severe appears low, namely due to weak instability. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low today. ...Discussion... Deamplification of the lower MO Valley short-wave trough is expected to continue through the day1 period as this feature progresses across the OH Valley into the northern middle Atlantic after 26/00z. In response to this short wave, a weak surface low will track across the mid MS Valley early, then lose its identity as a pronounced surface front advances southeast. This boundary will serve as one focus for potential convective development, along with warm advection. Modest boundary-layer heating is expected to result in weak buoyancy ahead of the front; although, weak instability will also be noted within the warm advection zone. In both cases, it appears some risk for lightning will be noted with the deeper updrafts. Forecast soundings suggest parcels will exceed levels necessary for lightning discharge but the threat of severe appears low, namely due to weak instability. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous states on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will extend across much of the western half of the CONUS, while an upper trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast on Saturday. At the surface, expansive high pressure over much of the U.S. will be in place, along with a dry airmass, precluding destabilization. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ..Leitman.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous states on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will extend across much of the western half of the CONUS, while an upper trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast on Saturday. At the surface, expansive high pressure over much of the U.S. will be in place, along with a dry airmass, precluding destabilization. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ..Leitman.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous states on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will extend across much of the western half of the CONUS, while an upper trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast on Saturday. At the surface, expansive high pressure over much of the U.S. will be in place, along with a dry airmass, precluding destabilization. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ..Leitman.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous states on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will extend across much of the western half of the CONUS, while an upper trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast on Saturday. At the surface, expansive high pressure over much of the U.S. will be in place, along with a dry airmass, precluding destabilization. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ..Leitman.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous states on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will extend across much of the western half of the CONUS, while an upper trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast on Saturday. At the surface, expansive high pressure over much of the U.S. will be in place, along with a dry airmass, precluding destabilization. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ..Leitman.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low today. ...Discussion... Deamplification of the lower MO Valley short-wave trough is expected to continue through the day1 period as this feature progresses across the OH Valley into the northern middle Atlantic after 26/00z. In response to this short wave, a weak surface low will track across the mid MS Valley early, then lose its identity as a pronounced surface front advances southeast. This boundary will serve as one focus for potential convective development, along with warm advection. Modest boundary-layer heating is expected to result in weak buoyancy ahead of the front; although, weak instability will also be noted within the warm advection zone. In both cases, it appears some risk for lightning will be noted with the deeper updrafts. Forecast soundings suggest parcels will exceed levels necessary for lightning discharge but the threat of severe appears low, namely due to weak instability. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/25/2024 Read more

MD 2160 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MO
Mesoscale Discussion 2160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Areas affected...south-central into northeast KS...northwest into north-central MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242342Z - 250145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible this evening, with a threat of isolated hail and strong to severe wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Storm coverage is increasing early this evening from central KS into northwest MO. Storms to the north/northeast of Kansas City have developed just to northeast of a warm front and are likely somewhat elevated. Persistent low-level warm/moist advection will help to sustain these storms as they approach north-central MO. Moderate elevated buoyancy (with MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficient deep-layer shear could support marginal supercell structures with a threat for isolated large hail. Also, despite this convection being somewhat elevated, a dry near-surface layer beneath the elevated moist plume could support some stronger wind gusts this evening as storms spread northeastward. Farther west, scattered storm development is ongoing from south-central into northeast KS, as a southeastward-moving cold front begins to intercept a pre-frontal surface trough and relatively greater instability. While low-level moisture remains rather limited, strong diurnal heating has resulted in MLCAPE increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range, along with weakening MLCINH. Increasing deep-layer flow/shear associated with an approaching midlevel shortwave trough will support some organized convection through the evening. Rather strong low-level flow (30-40 kt in the 1-3 km layer per regional VWPs) and steep low-level lapse rates will support potential for strong to locally severe gusts within this regime, especially if any organized clustering occurs. Isolated hail will also be possible, especially into east-central/northeast KS and northwest MO, where somewhat more favorable moisture and buoyancy will be in place. ..Dean/Hart.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37829798 38729706 39009674 39919589 40459437 40469379 40479286 40379259 39899309 39569346 39029418 38269515 37799564 37359641 37279699 37289743 37369820 37829798 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...01z Update... Leading edge of large-scale forcing is spreading across central IA, coincident with focused low-level warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. Scattered strong thunderstorms have evolved within this corridor, including several clusters. A few marginally severe hail reports were noted earlier across northern IA, but overall MESH cores are not that significant as the magnitude of instability is not that great, despite the steep mid-level lapse rates. Robust updrafts extend southwest along the cold front across northeast KS. This activity has developed within a more buoyant air mass characterized by near-dry adiabatic lapse rates in the 0-3km layer, and MLCAPE around 900 J/kg, per 00z sounding from TOP. Large hail (around 1 inch) should be the primary concern with storms as they propagate across eastern KS into northwest MO, along with some risk for gusty winds. Nocturnal cooling should lessen instability later this evening and this will likely lead to weaker updrafts and small hail and weaker downdrafts. ..Darrow.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...01z Update... Leading edge of large-scale forcing is spreading across central IA, coincident with focused low-level warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. Scattered strong thunderstorms have evolved within this corridor, including several clusters. A few marginally severe hail reports were noted earlier across northern IA, but overall MESH cores are not that significant as the magnitude of instability is not that great, despite the steep mid-level lapse rates. Robust updrafts extend southwest along the cold front across northeast KS. This activity has developed within a more buoyant air mass characterized by near-dry adiabatic lapse rates in the 0-3km layer, and MLCAPE around 900 J/kg, per 00z sounding from TOP. Large hail (around 1 inch) should be the primary concern with storms as they propagate across eastern KS into northwest MO, along with some risk for gusty winds. Nocturnal cooling should lessen instability later this evening and this will likely lead to weaker updrafts and small hail and weaker downdrafts. ..Darrow.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...01z Update... Leading edge of large-scale forcing is spreading across central IA, coincident with focused low-level warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. Scattered strong thunderstorms have evolved within this corridor, including several clusters. A few marginally severe hail reports were noted earlier across northern IA, but overall MESH cores are not that significant as the magnitude of instability is not that great, despite the steep mid-level lapse rates. Robust updrafts extend southwest along the cold front across northeast KS. This activity has developed within a more buoyant air mass characterized by near-dry adiabatic lapse rates in the 0-3km layer, and MLCAPE around 900 J/kg, per 00z sounding from TOP. Large hail (around 1 inch) should be the primary concern with storms as they propagate across eastern KS into northwest MO, along with some risk for gusty winds. Nocturnal cooling should lessen instability later this evening and this will likely lead to weaker updrafts and small hail and weaker downdrafts. ..Darrow.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...01z Update... Leading edge of large-scale forcing is spreading across central IA, coincident with focused low-level warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. Scattered strong thunderstorms have evolved within this corridor, including several clusters. A few marginally severe hail reports were noted earlier across northern IA, but overall MESH cores are not that significant as the magnitude of instability is not that great, despite the steep mid-level lapse rates. Robust updrafts extend southwest along the cold front across northeast KS. This activity has developed within a more buoyant air mass characterized by near-dry adiabatic lapse rates in the 0-3km layer, and MLCAPE around 900 J/kg, per 00z sounding from TOP. Large hail (around 1 inch) should be the primary concern with storms as they propagate across eastern KS into northwest MO, along with some risk for gusty winds. Nocturnal cooling should lessen instability later this evening and this will likely lead to weaker updrafts and small hail and weaker downdrafts. ..Darrow.. 10/25/2024 Read more

MD 2159 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF IOWA...INTO PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
Mesoscale Discussion 2159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0522 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Areas affected...Much of Iowa... into portions of far northwestern Illinois and southern Minnesota. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242222Z - 250045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Multiple areas of scattered thunderstorms ongoing within a broad warm-air advection regime may pose a threat for occasional severe hail through the evening and overnight hours. A WW is unlikely, though conditions are being monitored. DISCUSSION...As of 2210 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed multiple clusters of scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing over IA, northwest IL, and southern MN. Located ahead of a shortwave trough over the central Plains and north of a surface warm front near the Missouri River, these storms are ongoing in a relatively strong low-level warm-air advection regime. Broad isentropic ascent and the arrival of a cold front should continue to support sufficient lift from scattered to numerous thunderstorms this evening. Despite very poor low-level dewpoints and lapse rates, several elevated clusters have emerged over parts of IA, MN and IL with occasional reports of hail and gusty winds with the more robust convection. MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, overlapping with cool mid-level temperatures and 35-45 kt of effective shear will support a mixed mode of elevated supercells and linear clusters capable of isolated severe hail and perhaps a strong wind gust through this evening. Additional storm development appears likely as a robust 30-40 kt low-level jet and cold front arrives later this evening. Numerous elevated storms should spread east into eastern IA and NW IL with the potential for a couple of more organized cells to produce isolated hail and gusty winds. Given the relatively limited coverage of organized severe storms and limited buoyancy with eastward extent, a watch is not currently anticipated. ..Lyons/Hart.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 42759624 43689545 44259434 44279424 43989227 43779182 43369132 42769104 42029087 41279098 40969139 40859212 40939340 40969434 41559593 42759624 Read more

MD 2160 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MO
Mesoscale Discussion 2160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Areas affected...south-central into northeast KS...northwest into north-central MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242342Z - 250145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible this evening, with a threat of isolated hail and strong to severe wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Storm coverage is increasing early this evening from central KS into northwest MO. Storms to the north/northeast of Kansas City have developed just to northeast of a warm front and are likely somewhat elevated. Persistent low-level warm/moist advection will help to sustain these storms as they approach north-central MO. Moderate elevated buoyancy (with MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficient deep-layer shear could support marginal supercell structures with a threat for isolated large hail. Also, despite this convection being somewhat elevated, a dry near-surface layer beneath the elevated moist plume could support some stronger wind gusts this evening as storms spread northeastward. Farther west, scattered storm development is ongoing from south-central into northeast KS, as a southeastward-moving cold front begins to intercept a pre-frontal surface trough and relatively greater instability. While low-level moisture remains rather limited, strong diurnal heating has resulted in MLCAPE increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range, along with weakening MLCINH. Increasing deep-layer flow/shear associated with an approaching midlevel shortwave trough will support some organized convection through the evening. Rather strong low-level flow (30-40 kt in the 1-3 km layer per regional VWPs) and steep low-level lapse rates will support potential for strong to locally severe gusts within this regime, especially if any organized clustering occurs. Isolated hail will also be possible, especially into east-central/northeast KS and northwest MO, where somewhat more favorable moisture and buoyancy will be in place. ..Dean/Hart.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37829798 38729706 39009674 39919589 40459437 40469379 40479286 40379259 39899309 39569346 39029418 38269515 37799564 37359641 37279699 37289743 37369820 37829798 Read more

MD 2159 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF IOWA...INTO PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
Mesoscale Discussion 2159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0522 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Areas affected...Much of Iowa... into portions of far northwestern Illinois and southern Minnesota. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242222Z - 250045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Multiple areas of scattered thunderstorms ongoing within a broad warm-air advection regime may pose a threat for occasional severe hail through the evening and overnight hours. A WW is unlikely, though conditions are being monitored. DISCUSSION...As of 2210 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed multiple clusters of scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing over IA, northwest IL, and southern MN. Located ahead of a shortwave trough over the central Plains and north of a surface warm front near the Missouri River, these storms are ongoing in a relatively strong low-level warm-air advection regime. Broad isentropic ascent and the arrival of a cold front should continue to support sufficient lift from scattered to numerous thunderstorms this evening. Despite very poor low-level dewpoints and lapse rates, several elevated clusters have emerged over parts of IA, MN and IL with occasional reports of hail and gusty winds with the more robust convection. MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, overlapping with cool mid-level temperatures and 35-45 kt of effective shear will support a mixed mode of elevated supercells and linear clusters capable of isolated severe hail and perhaps a strong wind gust through this evening. Additional storm development appears likely as a robust 30-40 kt low-level jet and cold front arrives later this evening. Numerous elevated storms should spread east into eastern IA and NW IL with the potential for a couple of more organized cells to produce isolated hail and gusty winds. Given the relatively limited coverage of organized severe storms and limited buoyancy with eastward extent, a watch is not currently anticipated. ..Lyons/Hart.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 42759624 43689545 44259434 44279424 43989227 43779182 43369132 42769104 42029087 41279098 40969139 40859212 40939340 40969434 41559593 42759624 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 24 23:57:02 UTC 2024.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242317
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located over the central portion of the eastern Pacific
basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

MD 2158 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...SOUTHWEST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2158 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Areas affected...parts of northeast Kansas...southeast Nebraska...northwest Missouri...southwest Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242023Z - 242300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and potentially damaging wind gusts are possible by 5-7 PM CDT. This may include an isolated evolving supercell near/east of the I-29 corridor between Kansas City and St. Joseph. DISCUSSION...Rapid surface pressure falls (2 hourly on the order of 4 mb) have been evident in the 19-20Z observations centered around Topeka. This is within broader surface troughing encompassing much of the central Great Plains, where models indicate modest surface wave development along a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone. It appears that low-level moistening and destabilization will become focused within strengthening large-scale ascent associated with downstream low-level warm advection, across northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri through 22-00Z. This likely will be aided by the approach of a mid-level short wave trough now turning east of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies. To the east of a plume of relatively warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the central Great Plains, it appears that a narrow tongue of modest low-level moisture return (including upper 50s/near 60F surface dew points) will contribute to CAPE as high as 1000+ J/kg. As the large-scale ascent overcomes the mid-level inhibition, the initiation of at least a couple of strong thunderstorms appears increasingly probable by early evening, in the presence of favorably sheared, 30-40 kt southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer. The environment appears conducive to a risk for severe hail. Additionally, modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and sizable sub-cloud temperature/dew point spreads may support a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts, even for increasingly elevated storms to the east of the surface warm front forecast to shift into the Kansas City/St. Joseph MO vicinity by early evening. It appears that the most favorable shear and instability will focus in close proximity to the front, providing support for the highest probabilities for sustained supercell development. However, even with sizable, clockwise curved low-level hodographs, the relatively dry/well-mixed boundary-layer probably will tend to limit the tornado potential. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39259626 40029580 40779407 40099247 39609300 39259439 38909550 38859594 39259626 Read more