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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (up to 1-1.75 inch diameter) and strong wind gusts (around 50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... A shortwave trough over WY/CO will continue eastward across the central Plains through this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS Valley by early Friday morning. Related cyclogenesis across the central High Plains will lead to a consolidated surface low over the mid MO Valley this evening, with a cold front extending southwestward from the low across KS. A warm front should also be located over northern MO. Shallow low-level moisture, characterized by generally upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints, will be present across the warm sector from eastern KS into MO by late this afternoon. With the late arrival of large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, most guidance continues to show convective initiation occurring around 00Z, beginning in eastern KS and vicinity. Up to 750-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should be present across this area, with robust daytime heating aiding in the development of steep low-level lapse rates. Initial development may be briefly supercellular, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear supports updraft organization. Severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible with this initial activity, before a quick mode transition to more linear structures occurs along the cold front through the evening. Isolated strong to severe gusts (around 50-60 mph) may occur so long as thunderstorms remain surface based, before convection tends to become elevated with eastward extent into MO later this evening. Isolated hail may also occur this evening into the early overnight hours across parts of IA and northern MO, along/north of the warm front in a low-level warm advection regime. Sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear should be present for robust updrafts, although it remains unclear whether supercells will be able to maintained for more than an hour or two. Given continued uncertainty in the number and longevity of surface-based supercells across eastern KS into northwest MO this evening, have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (up to 1-1.75 inch diameter) and strong wind gusts (around 50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... A shortwave trough over WY/CO will continue eastward across the central Plains through this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS Valley by early Friday morning. Related cyclogenesis across the central High Plains will lead to a consolidated surface low over the mid MO Valley this evening, with a cold front extending southwestward from the low across KS. A warm front should also be located over northern MO. Shallow low-level moisture, characterized by generally upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints, will be present across the warm sector from eastern KS into MO by late this afternoon. With the late arrival of large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, most guidance continues to show convective initiation occurring around 00Z, beginning in eastern KS and vicinity. Up to 750-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should be present across this area, with robust daytime heating aiding in the development of steep low-level lapse rates. Initial development may be briefly supercellular, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear supports updraft organization. Severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible with this initial activity, before a quick mode transition to more linear structures occurs along the cold front through the evening. Isolated strong to severe gusts (around 50-60 mph) may occur so long as thunderstorms remain surface based, before convection tends to become elevated with eastward extent into MO later this evening. Isolated hail may also occur this evening into the early overnight hours across parts of IA and northern MO, along/north of the warm front in a low-level warm advection regime. Sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear should be present for robust updrafts, although it remains unclear whether supercells will be able to maintained for more than an hour or two. Given continued uncertainty in the number and longevity of surface-based supercells across eastern KS into northwest MO this evening, have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added for portions of northeast Colorado. RH values are already around or below 20% in this area with wind gusts of 15-40 mph. Showers are developing over the northern Front Range along the CO/WY border but the Elevated area is south of these showers where the greatest overlap of strong west-northwest winds, low RH, and dry fuels should materialize. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added for portions of northeast Colorado. RH values are already around or below 20% in this area with wind gusts of 15-40 mph. Showers are developing over the northern Front Range along the CO/WY border but the Elevated area is south of these showers where the greatest overlap of strong west-northwest winds, low RH, and dry fuels should materialize. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added for portions of northeast Colorado. RH values are already around or below 20% in this area with wind gusts of 15-40 mph. Showers are developing over the northern Front Range along the CO/WY border but the Elevated area is south of these showers where the greatest overlap of strong west-northwest winds, low RH, and dry fuels should materialize. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added for portions of northeast Colorado. RH values are already around or below 20% in this area with wind gusts of 15-40 mph. Showers are developing over the northern Front Range along the CO/WY border but the Elevated area is south of these showers where the greatest overlap of strong west-northwest winds, low RH, and dry fuels should materialize. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added for portions of northeast Colorado. RH values are already around or below 20% in this area with wind gusts of 15-40 mph. Showers are developing over the northern Front Range along the CO/WY border but the Elevated area is south of these showers where the greatest overlap of strong west-northwest winds, low RH, and dry fuels should materialize. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added for portions of northeast Colorado. RH values are already around or below 20% in this area with wind gusts of 15-40 mph. Showers are developing over the northern Front Range along the CO/WY border but the Elevated area is south of these showers where the greatest overlap of strong west-northwest winds, low RH, and dry fuels should materialize. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added for portions of northeast Colorado. RH values are already around or below 20% in this area with wind gusts of 15-40 mph. Showers are developing over the northern Front Range along the CO/WY border but the Elevated area is south of these showers where the greatest overlap of strong west-northwest winds, low RH, and dry fuels should materialize. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 24 Oct 2024 14:33:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Oct 2024 15:22:54 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 241432 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Kristy's satellite presentation has improved this morning as the eye has reappeared on infrared and visible imagery, with deep convection wrapping around the center. A recent AMSR2 microwave pass depicted that the system has completed an eyewall replacement cycle, with an inner core becoming re-established and contracting towards the center. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate data-T values have increased since the previous advisory with T6.5 from both TAFB and SAB. Given these intensity estimates and recent satellite images, the intensity is set to 130 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is moving westward at an estimated motion of 270/15 kt, being steered by a ridge located over the northeastern Pacific. Kristy will gradually round the southwestern portion of the ridge over the next day or so, with a turn to the northwest then north-northwest continuing through the weekend between the flow of the aforementioned ridge and a trough to the west. By the end of the weekend, Kristy is forecast to rapidly weaken with the remnants turning west-southwestward within the low-level steering flow. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly to the right of the previous forecast, closer to the simple consensus aids. Kristy is forecast to remain within a favorable environment for the next 24 hours or so, with warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast calls for some slight re-intensification during this time, although recent microwave imagery depicts that another eyewall replacement cycle could occur, which would cause some intensity fluctuations in the short term. Thereafter, the environment quickly becomes hostile with strong wind shear, drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track of Kristy. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that rapid weakening should occur through the end of the forecast period. Model simulated satellite imagery depicts that Kristy will begin to lose convection and become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and depicts the system opening into a trough by 120 h. The NHC intensity forecast follows these trends, showing rapid weakening, and now has the remnant low status at 72h, and dissipation at 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.1N 120.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 15.3N 124.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 16.8N 126.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 18.6N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 20.6N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 22.3N 131.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 133.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/B.Adams

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 241432 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 34 3 93(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 125W 50 X 73(73) 6(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 125W 64 X 38(38) 9(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 40(43) 40(83) X(83) X(83) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 37(48) X(48) X(48) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/B.ADAMS

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 241431 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 120.3W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 105SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 120.3W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 119.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.3N 124.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.8N 126.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.6N 128.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.6N 130.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 131.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 120.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/B.ADAMS

...MAJOR HURRICANE KRISTY CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 the center of Kristy was located near 14.1, -120.3 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 933 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 241431 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE KRISTY CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 120.3W ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 120.3 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is forecast to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest then north-northwest, with a slower forward speed, is expected Friday through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Kristy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected through tonight, with rapid weakening expected to begin Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/B.Adams

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KS TO NORTHERN MO AND IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and much of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO/IA this evening into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over western WY this morning will progress to the central Plains this evening and the mid MS Valley by early Friday. Downstream from this midlevel trough, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the central High Plains this afternoon, which will aid in northward advection of a partially modified Gulf air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints of 55-60 F). Strong surface heating/mixing across KS/OK will result in a narrow surface warm sector with moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg) by mid-late afternoon across eastern KS. The eastern extent of the surface warm sector will be demarcated by a warm front into western MO. Surface-based thunderstorm development will be possible by roughly 22-00z along a surface trough/cold front across eastern KS, with subsequent expansion of elevated convection farther northeast across northern MO/southern IA through early tonight in a zone of strengthening low-level warm advection. Isolated strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible with the initial storms across eastern KS this evening in the zone of steeper low-level lapse rates. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support some potential for embedded supercells capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) into early tonight. The area from eastern KS to northwest MO was considered for a SLGT risk upgrade, and this area will be monitored closely in later outlook updates. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KS TO NORTHERN MO AND IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and much of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO/IA this evening into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over western WY this morning will progress to the central Plains this evening and the mid MS Valley by early Friday. Downstream from this midlevel trough, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the central High Plains this afternoon, which will aid in northward advection of a partially modified Gulf air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints of 55-60 F). Strong surface heating/mixing across KS/OK will result in a narrow surface warm sector with moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg) by mid-late afternoon across eastern KS. The eastern extent of the surface warm sector will be demarcated by a warm front into western MO. Surface-based thunderstorm development will be possible by roughly 22-00z along a surface trough/cold front across eastern KS, with subsequent expansion of elevated convection farther northeast across northern MO/southern IA through early tonight in a zone of strengthening low-level warm advection. Isolated strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible with the initial storms across eastern KS this evening in the zone of steeper low-level lapse rates. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support some potential for embedded supercells capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) into early tonight. The area from eastern KS to northwest MO was considered for a SLGT risk upgrade, and this area will be monitored closely in later outlook updates. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KS TO NORTHERN MO AND IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and much of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO/IA this evening into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over western WY this morning will progress to the central Plains this evening and the mid MS Valley by early Friday. Downstream from this midlevel trough, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the central High Plains this afternoon, which will aid in northward advection of a partially modified Gulf air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints of 55-60 F). Strong surface heating/mixing across KS/OK will result in a narrow surface warm sector with moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg) by mid-late afternoon across eastern KS. The eastern extent of the surface warm sector will be demarcated by a warm front into western MO. Surface-based thunderstorm development will be possible by roughly 22-00z along a surface trough/cold front across eastern KS, with subsequent expansion of elevated convection farther northeast across northern MO/southern IA through early tonight in a zone of strengthening low-level warm advection. Isolated strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible with the initial storms across eastern KS this evening in the zone of steeper low-level lapse rates. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support some potential for embedded supercells capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) into early tonight. The area from eastern KS to northwest MO was considered for a SLGT risk upgrade, and this area will be monitored closely in later outlook updates. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KS TO NORTHERN MO AND IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and much of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO/IA this evening into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over western WY this morning will progress to the central Plains this evening and the mid MS Valley by early Friday. Downstream from this midlevel trough, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the central High Plains this afternoon, which will aid in northward advection of a partially modified Gulf air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints of 55-60 F). Strong surface heating/mixing across KS/OK will result in a narrow surface warm sector with moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg) by mid-late afternoon across eastern KS. The eastern extent of the surface warm sector will be demarcated by a warm front into western MO. Surface-based thunderstorm development will be possible by roughly 22-00z along a surface trough/cold front across eastern KS, with subsequent expansion of elevated convection farther northeast across northern MO/southern IA through early tonight in a zone of strengthening low-level warm advection. Isolated strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible with the initial storms across eastern KS this evening in the zone of steeper low-level lapse rates. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support some potential for embedded supercells capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) into early tonight. The area from eastern KS to northwest MO was considered for a SLGT risk upgrade, and this area will be monitored closely in later outlook updates. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/24/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly