Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... High pressure will dominate the surface pattern across the eastern CONUS on Sunday. Strong lee troughing will begin across the central CONUS early next week as a large mid-level trough shifts across the western CONUS. There is consistency among extended range guidance for a strong ridge to build across the eastern CONUS which will result in a positively tilted mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. As these advect through the flow, several surface lows will move from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes next week. Initially, surface moisture will be lacking across the Plains, but by the middle of the week Day7/Wednesday, the continued southerly flow will result in better low-level moisture with 60sF dewpoints potentially as far north as the Midwest with mid 60s dewpoints into the southern Plains. Once more robust low-level moisture moves inland and interacts with the sharp surface front/trough, thunderstorms will be possible. Once this moisture is in place, severe weather will become more possible from Day7/Wednesday and beyond. At this time it is unclear how the evolution of these individual shortwave troughs will occur which will impact severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... High pressure will dominate the surface pattern across the eastern CONUS on Sunday. Strong lee troughing will begin across the central CONUS early next week as a large mid-level trough shifts across the western CONUS. There is consistency among extended range guidance for a strong ridge to build across the eastern CONUS which will result in a positively tilted mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. As these advect through the flow, several surface lows will move from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes next week. Initially, surface moisture will be lacking across the Plains, but by the middle of the week Day7/Wednesday, the continued southerly flow will result in better low-level moisture with 60sF dewpoints potentially as far north as the Midwest with mid 60s dewpoints into the southern Plains. Once more robust low-level moisture moves inland and interacts with the sharp surface front/trough, thunderstorms will be possible. Once this moisture is in place, severe weather will become more possible from Day7/Wednesday and beyond. At this time it is unclear how the evolution of these individual shortwave troughs will occur which will impact severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... High pressure will dominate the surface pattern across the eastern CONUS on Sunday. Strong lee troughing will begin across the central CONUS early next week as a large mid-level trough shifts across the western CONUS. There is consistency among extended range guidance for a strong ridge to build across the eastern CONUS which will result in a positively tilted mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. As these advect through the flow, several surface lows will move from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes next week. Initially, surface moisture will be lacking across the Plains, but by the middle of the week Day7/Wednesday, the continued southerly flow will result in better low-level moisture with 60sF dewpoints potentially as far north as the Midwest with mid 60s dewpoints into the southern Plains. Once more robust low-level moisture moves inland and interacts with the sharp surface front/trough, thunderstorms will be possible. Once this moisture is in place, severe weather will become more possible from Day7/Wednesday and beyond. At this time it is unclear how the evolution of these individual shortwave troughs will occur which will impact severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... High pressure will dominate the surface pattern across the eastern CONUS on Sunday. Strong lee troughing will begin across the central CONUS early next week as a large mid-level trough shifts across the western CONUS. There is consistency among extended range guidance for a strong ridge to build across the eastern CONUS which will result in a positively tilted mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. As these advect through the flow, several surface lows will move from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes next week. Initially, surface moisture will be lacking across the Plains, but by the middle of the week Day7/Wednesday, the continued southerly flow will result in better low-level moisture with 60sF dewpoints potentially as far north as the Midwest with mid 60s dewpoints into the southern Plains. Once more robust low-level moisture moves inland and interacts with the sharp surface front/trough, thunderstorms will be possible. Once this moisture is in place, severe weather will become more possible from Day7/Wednesday and beyond. At this time it is unclear how the evolution of these individual shortwave troughs will occur which will impact severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... High pressure will dominate the surface pattern across the eastern CONUS on Sunday. Strong lee troughing will begin across the central CONUS early next week as a large mid-level trough shifts across the western CONUS. There is consistency among extended range guidance for a strong ridge to build across the eastern CONUS which will result in a positively tilted mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. As these advect through the flow, several surface lows will move from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes next week. Initially, surface moisture will be lacking across the Plains, but by the middle of the week Day7/Wednesday, the continued southerly flow will result in better low-level moisture with 60sF dewpoints potentially as far north as the Midwest with mid 60s dewpoints into the southern Plains. Once more robust low-level moisture moves inland and interacts with the sharp surface front/trough, thunderstorms will be possible. Once this moisture is in place, severe weather will become more possible from Day7/Wednesday and beyond. At this time it is unclear how the evolution of these individual shortwave troughs will occur which will impact severe weather potential. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal or no thunderstorm activity is expected across the CONUS on Saturday. High pressure will dominate the pattern across the country on Saturday. A diffuse remnant front is expected from the Ozarks to the Carolinas during the day with some weak instability possible to its south where mid to upper 50s dewpoints are possible. However, forcing for ascent will be quite weak and therefore, minimal or no thunderstorm activity is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal or no thunderstorm activity is expected across the CONUS on Saturday. High pressure will dominate the pattern across the country on Saturday. A diffuse remnant front is expected from the Ozarks to the Carolinas during the day with some weak instability possible to its south where mid to upper 50s dewpoints are possible. However, forcing for ascent will be quite weak and therefore, minimal or no thunderstorm activity is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal or no thunderstorm activity is expected across the CONUS on Saturday. High pressure will dominate the pattern across the country on Saturday. A diffuse remnant front is expected from the Ozarks to the Carolinas during the day with some weak instability possible to its south where mid to upper 50s dewpoints are possible. However, forcing for ascent will be quite weak and therefore, minimal or no thunderstorm activity is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal or no thunderstorm activity is expected across the CONUS on Saturday. High pressure will dominate the pattern across the country on Saturday. A diffuse remnant front is expected from the Ozarks to the Carolinas during the day with some weak instability possible to its south where mid to upper 50s dewpoints are possible. However, forcing for ascent will be quite weak and therefore, minimal or no thunderstorm activity is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather concerns a not anticipated across the contiguous United States. A surface cold front will continue to push east through the central United States and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. In the wake of this front, gusty northerly winds will reinforce a dry airmass in place across the Plains. Cooler conditions behind the front will result in slightly higher relative humidity values than the day before, which should somewhat constrain the overall large-scale fire weather threat. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather concerns a not anticipated across the contiguous United States. A surface cold front will continue to push east through the central United States and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. In the wake of this front, gusty northerly winds will reinforce a dry airmass in place across the Plains. Cooler conditions behind the front will result in slightly higher relative humidity values than the day before, which should somewhat constrain the overall large-scale fire weather threat. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather concerns a not anticipated across the contiguous United States. A surface cold front will continue to push east through the central United States and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. In the wake of this front, gusty northerly winds will reinforce a dry airmass in place across the Plains. Cooler conditions behind the front will result in slightly higher relative humidity values than the day before, which should somewhat constrain the overall large-scale fire weather threat. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather concerns a not anticipated across the contiguous United States. A surface cold front will continue to push east through the central United States and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. In the wake of this front, gusty northerly winds will reinforce a dry airmass in place across the Plains. Cooler conditions behind the front will result in slightly higher relative humidity values than the day before, which should somewhat constrain the overall large-scale fire weather threat. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR MISSING HAZARD GRAPHICS LABELS ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. Minimal thunderstorms will occur across the CONUS on Friday, with high pressure over much of the Plains and East. The exception will be from the Ozarks into the OH Valley where a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of a weakening cold front. Here, some weak instability may develop during the afternoon with weak lift possibly aiding isolated thunderstorm activity. Some convergence along the front and neutral height tendencies aloft may support some thunderstorms early in the day before frontal convergence weakens and heights increase later in the day and the thunderstorm threat likely wanes. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR MISSING HAZARD GRAPHICS LABELS ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. Minimal thunderstorms will occur across the CONUS on Friday, with high pressure over much of the Plains and East. The exception will be from the Ozarks into the OH Valley where a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of a weakening cold front. Here, some weak instability may develop during the afternoon with weak lift possibly aiding isolated thunderstorm activity. Some convergence along the front and neutral height tendencies aloft may support some thunderstorms early in the day before frontal convergence weakens and heights increase later in the day and the thunderstorm threat likely wanes. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR MISSING HAZARD GRAPHICS LABELS ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. Minimal thunderstorms will occur across the CONUS on Friday, with high pressure over much of the Plains and East. The exception will be from the Ozarks into the OH Valley where a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of a weakening cold front. Here, some weak instability may develop during the afternoon with weak lift possibly aiding isolated thunderstorm activity. Some convergence along the front and neutral height tendencies aloft may support some thunderstorms early in the day before frontal convergence weakens and heights increase later in the day and the thunderstorm threat likely wanes. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more