Aggregator

The Alabama Forestry Commission has issued a Fire Danger Advisory for 22 counties in the west-central and southwest parts of the state effective immediately. The fire danger was rising, and blazes were becoming more difficult to control. The AFC was not issuing a burn restriction, but strongly discouraged any outdoor burning until conditions ease. “Dead pine trees from last year’s drought and the resulting southern pine beetle outbreak this year are contributing to fire intensity, which challenges containment efforts and presents additional hazards to firefighters,” said an AFC fire analyst. WPMI-TV NBC 15 (Mobile, Ala.), Oct 24, 2024

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An upper-level trough will break down an amplified ridge over the West this weekend. Upper level ridging will shift east over the central US, with deep upper level troughing over the Northeast through early next week. Upper-level ridging will amplify over the eastern US as the trough deepens over the West and into the central US mid-next week, with well above normal temperatures preceding the upper-level trough. ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 6/Tuesday... Dry/breezy conditions will develop ahead of a Pacific cold front in portions of the central/northern High Plains and Great Basin Day 4/Sunday. Critical winds/RH are most likely across portions southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, but this area may expand into northeast Colorado, southeast Montana, and the western Dakotas depending on the track/timing of the upper-level trough. Additionally, a 40% area was almost included for portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah, but there is too much uncertainty regarding critical winds/RH overlapping dry fuels. On Day 5/Monday, dry/windy conditions will overspread portions of the Southwest and southern/central Plains. Two 40% areas are delineated highlighting the corridors with the highest probabilities of critical winds/RH overlapping receptive fuels. Additionally, depending on the timing of the cold frontal passage, critical conditions may develop in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and western Nebraska. Dry/windy conditions are likely to continue on portions of the southern/central High Plains on Day 6/Tuesday, but too much forecast uncertainty exists to issue any areas at this time. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions may emerge in portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest amid well above normal temperatures on Day 5/Monday - Day 6/Tuesday. However, this is dependent on the moisture return ahead of the upper-level trough, which remains uncertain. ...Day 6/Tuesday - Day 8/Thursday... Gusty northerly and offshore winds are likely in portions of central/southern California Day 6/Tuesday and possibly into Day 8/Thursday. Uncertainty remains regarding the duration, magnitude, and spatial extent of this event, but areas may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An upper-level trough will break down an amplified ridge over the West this weekend. Upper level ridging will shift east over the central US, with deep upper level troughing over the Northeast through early next week. Upper-level ridging will amplify over the eastern US as the trough deepens over the West and into the central US mid-next week, with well above normal temperatures preceding the upper-level trough. ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 6/Tuesday... Dry/breezy conditions will develop ahead of a Pacific cold front in portions of the central/northern High Plains and Great Basin Day 4/Sunday. Critical winds/RH are most likely across portions southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, but this area may expand into northeast Colorado, southeast Montana, and the western Dakotas depending on the track/timing of the upper-level trough. Additionally, a 40% area was almost included for portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah, but there is too much uncertainty regarding critical winds/RH overlapping dry fuels. On Day 5/Monday, dry/windy conditions will overspread portions of the Southwest and southern/central Plains. Two 40% areas are delineated highlighting the corridors with the highest probabilities of critical winds/RH overlapping receptive fuels. Additionally, depending on the timing of the cold frontal passage, critical conditions may develop in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and western Nebraska. Dry/windy conditions are likely to continue on portions of the southern/central High Plains on Day 6/Tuesday, but too much forecast uncertainty exists to issue any areas at this time. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions may emerge in portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest amid well above normal temperatures on Day 5/Monday - Day 6/Tuesday. However, this is dependent on the moisture return ahead of the upper-level trough, which remains uncertain. ...Day 6/Tuesday - Day 8/Thursday... Gusty northerly and offshore winds are likely in portions of central/southern California Day 6/Tuesday and possibly into Day 8/Thursday. Uncertainty remains regarding the duration, magnitude, and spatial extent of this event, but areas may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An upper-level trough will break down an amplified ridge over the West this weekend. Upper level ridging will shift east over the central US, with deep upper level troughing over the Northeast through early next week. Upper-level ridging will amplify over the eastern US as the trough deepens over the West and into the central US mid-next week, with well above normal temperatures preceding the upper-level trough. ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 6/Tuesday... Dry/breezy conditions will develop ahead of a Pacific cold front in portions of the central/northern High Plains and Great Basin Day 4/Sunday. Critical winds/RH are most likely across portions southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, but this area may expand into northeast Colorado, southeast Montana, and the western Dakotas depending on the track/timing of the upper-level trough. Additionally, a 40% area was almost included for portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah, but there is too much uncertainty regarding critical winds/RH overlapping dry fuels. On Day 5/Monday, dry/windy conditions will overspread portions of the Southwest and southern/central Plains. Two 40% areas are delineated highlighting the corridors with the highest probabilities of critical winds/RH overlapping receptive fuels. Additionally, depending on the timing of the cold frontal passage, critical conditions may develop in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and western Nebraska. Dry/windy conditions are likely to continue on portions of the southern/central High Plains on Day 6/Tuesday, but too much forecast uncertainty exists to issue any areas at this time. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions may emerge in portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest amid well above normal temperatures on Day 5/Monday - Day 6/Tuesday. However, this is dependent on the moisture return ahead of the upper-level trough, which remains uncertain. ...Day 6/Tuesday - Day 8/Thursday... Gusty northerly and offshore winds are likely in portions of central/southern California Day 6/Tuesday and possibly into Day 8/Thursday. Uncertainty remains regarding the duration, magnitude, and spatial extent of this event, but areas may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An upper-level trough will break down an amplified ridge over the West this weekend. Upper level ridging will shift east over the central US, with deep upper level troughing over the Northeast through early next week. Upper-level ridging will amplify over the eastern US as the trough deepens over the West and into the central US mid-next week, with well above normal temperatures preceding the upper-level trough. ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 6/Tuesday... Dry/breezy conditions will develop ahead of a Pacific cold front in portions of the central/northern High Plains and Great Basin Day 4/Sunday. Critical winds/RH are most likely across portions southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, but this area may expand into northeast Colorado, southeast Montana, and the western Dakotas depending on the track/timing of the upper-level trough. Additionally, a 40% area was almost included for portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah, but there is too much uncertainty regarding critical winds/RH overlapping dry fuels. On Day 5/Monday, dry/windy conditions will overspread portions of the Southwest and southern/central Plains. Two 40% areas are delineated highlighting the corridors with the highest probabilities of critical winds/RH overlapping receptive fuels. Additionally, depending on the timing of the cold frontal passage, critical conditions may develop in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and western Nebraska. Dry/windy conditions are likely to continue on portions of the southern/central High Plains on Day 6/Tuesday, but too much forecast uncertainty exists to issue any areas at this time. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions may emerge in portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest amid well above normal temperatures on Day 5/Monday - Day 6/Tuesday. However, this is dependent on the moisture return ahead of the upper-level trough, which remains uncertain. ...Day 6/Tuesday - Day 8/Thursday... Gusty northerly and offshore winds are likely in portions of central/southern California Day 6/Tuesday and possibly into Day 8/Thursday. Uncertainty remains regarding the duration, magnitude, and spatial extent of this event, but areas may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An upper-level trough will break down an amplified ridge over the West this weekend. Upper level ridging will shift east over the central US, with deep upper level troughing over the Northeast through early next week. Upper-level ridging will amplify over the eastern US as the trough deepens over the West and into the central US mid-next week, with well above normal temperatures preceding the upper-level trough. ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 6/Tuesday... Dry/breezy conditions will develop ahead of a Pacific cold front in portions of the central/northern High Plains and Great Basin Day 4/Sunday. Critical winds/RH are most likely across portions southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, but this area may expand into northeast Colorado, southeast Montana, and the western Dakotas depending on the track/timing of the upper-level trough. Additionally, a 40% area was almost included for portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah, but there is too much uncertainty regarding critical winds/RH overlapping dry fuels. On Day 5/Monday, dry/windy conditions will overspread portions of the Southwest and southern/central Plains. Two 40% areas are delineated highlighting the corridors with the highest probabilities of critical winds/RH overlapping receptive fuels. Additionally, depending on the timing of the cold frontal passage, critical conditions may develop in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and western Nebraska. Dry/windy conditions are likely to continue on portions of the southern/central High Plains on Day 6/Tuesday, but too much forecast uncertainty exists to issue any areas at this time. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions may emerge in portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest amid well above normal temperatures on Day 5/Monday - Day 6/Tuesday. However, this is dependent on the moisture return ahead of the upper-level trough, which remains uncertain. ...Day 6/Tuesday - Day 8/Thursday... Gusty northerly and offshore winds are likely in portions of central/southern California Day 6/Tuesday and possibly into Day 8/Thursday. Uncertainty remains regarding the duration, magnitude, and spatial extent of this event, but areas may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An upper-level trough will break down an amplified ridge over the West this weekend. Upper level ridging will shift east over the central US, with deep upper level troughing over the Northeast through early next week. Upper-level ridging will amplify over the eastern US as the trough deepens over the West and into the central US mid-next week, with well above normal temperatures preceding the upper-level trough. ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 6/Tuesday... Dry/breezy conditions will develop ahead of a Pacific cold front in portions of the central/northern High Plains and Great Basin Day 4/Sunday. Critical winds/RH are most likely across portions southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, but this area may expand into northeast Colorado, southeast Montana, and the western Dakotas depending on the track/timing of the upper-level trough. Additionally, a 40% area was almost included for portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah, but there is too much uncertainty regarding critical winds/RH overlapping dry fuels. On Day 5/Monday, dry/windy conditions will overspread portions of the Southwest and southern/central Plains. Two 40% areas are delineated highlighting the corridors with the highest probabilities of critical winds/RH overlapping receptive fuels. Additionally, depending on the timing of the cold frontal passage, critical conditions may develop in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and western Nebraska. Dry/windy conditions are likely to continue on portions of the southern/central High Plains on Day 6/Tuesday, but too much forecast uncertainty exists to issue any areas at this time. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions may emerge in portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest amid well above normal temperatures on Day 5/Monday - Day 6/Tuesday. However, this is dependent on the moisture return ahead of the upper-level trough, which remains uncertain. ...Day 6/Tuesday - Day 8/Thursday... Gusty northerly and offshore winds are likely in portions of central/southern California Day 6/Tuesday and possibly into Day 8/Thursday. Uncertainty remains regarding the duration, magnitude, and spatial extent of this event, but areas may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z An upper-level trough will break down an amplified ridge over the West this weekend. Upper level ridging will shift east over the central US, with deep upper level troughing over the Northeast through early next week. Upper-level ridging will amplify over the eastern US as the trough deepens over the West and into the central US mid-next week, with well above normal temperatures preceding the upper-level trough. ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 6/Tuesday... Dry/breezy conditions will develop ahead of a Pacific cold front in portions of the central/northern High Plains and Great Basin Day 4/Sunday. Critical winds/RH are most likely across portions southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, but this area may expand into northeast Colorado, southeast Montana, and the western Dakotas depending on the track/timing of the upper-level trough. Additionally, a 40% area was almost included for portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah, but there is too much uncertainty regarding critical winds/RH overlapping dry fuels. On Day 5/Monday, dry/windy conditions will overspread portions of the Southwest and southern/central Plains. Two 40% areas are delineated highlighting the corridors with the highest probabilities of critical winds/RH overlapping receptive fuels. Additionally, depending on the timing of the cold frontal passage, critical conditions may develop in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and western Nebraska. Dry/windy conditions are likely to continue on portions of the southern/central High Plains on Day 6/Tuesday, but too much forecast uncertainty exists to issue any areas at this time. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions may emerge in portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest amid well above normal temperatures on Day 5/Monday - Day 6/Tuesday. However, this is dependent on the moisture return ahead of the upper-level trough, which remains uncertain. ...Day 6/Tuesday - Day 8/Thursday... Gusty northerly and offshore winds are likely in portions of central/southern California Day 6/Tuesday and possibly into Day 8/Thursday. Uncertainty remains regarding the duration, magnitude, and spatial extent of this event, but areas may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The harvest has been very dry and dusty, and punctuated by field fires. The dry field conditions allow the corn to dry down to 9% moisture, which is very low. Given the dry soil and fire danger, the disk is kept with the harvesting crew because the ground is too hard to disk and it’s good to have the disk near in case fire starts. It’s too dry not to plan for a blaze. The farmer was also doing extra combine checks to make sure nothing was overheating and no flammable materials were collecting anywhere. Two days of wildfire danger have delayed the harvest more than rain days (none). Ag Update (Tekamah, Neb.), Oct 23, 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 24 Oct 2024 20:34:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Oct 2024 21:22:51 GMT

Issued at 500 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 242033 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 500 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Satellite imagery continues to show a circular eye that has been warming through the afternoon, with varying degrees of clearing. While the inner eye has not been as clear over the past few hours, subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have either increased or held steady, with a data-T value of T/7.0 and T/6.5, from TAFB and SAB respectively. UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates have increased as well. Using an average of these intensity estimates and latest trends in satellite images, the initial intensity is set to 140 kt for this advisory. Therefore, Kristy has strengthened into a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Kristy's forward motion remains steady, estimated at 270/14 kt while being steered by a ridge over the northeastern Pacific. The hurricane will gradually round the southwestern portion of the ridge over the next day or so, with a turn to the northwest and then the north-northwest occurring through this weekend as a trough to the west begins to influence Kristy's motion. The system will rapidly weaken by the end of this weekend, with the remnants then turning west-southwestward in the low-level steering flow. The latest NHC track forecast has once again shifted slightly to the right, closer to the consensus aids, but remains on the southwest side of the guidance envelope. For about the next 24 hours, Kristy looks to remain in a favorable environment characterized by warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear. Some slight fluctuations are possible in the short term, especially if the system has another eyewall replacement cycle. The environment then rapidly becomes hostile as the hurricane enters an area of stronger vertical wind shear, drier air, and cooler sea surface temperatures. The intensity guidance remains insistent on rapid weakening occurring through the end of the forecast period. Model-simulated satellite imagery also mirrors this trend, suggesting that Kristy will lose convection and become post-tropical by 72 h, degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h, and open into a trough by 120 h. The NHC intensity forecast also follows these trends with only minor adjustments made this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 14.2N 121.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 16.1N 125.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.7N 127.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 19.8N 129.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 21.7N 130.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 22.2N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 28/1800Z 21.4N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/B. Adams

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 242031 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 121.6W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 121.6W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 121.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.1N 125.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.7N 127.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.8N 129.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.7N 130.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 50SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.2N 131.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 21.4N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 121.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/B. ADAMS=

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 242033 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 28 66(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 125W 50 2 57(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 125W 64 X 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 58(66) 10(76) X(76) X(76) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 10(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/B. ADAMS

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 242033 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 ...KRISTY BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 121.6W ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 121.6 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest, with a slower forward speed, is expected Friday through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Kristy is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected through tonight, with rapid weakening expected to begin Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb (27.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/B. Adams

...KRISTY BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 the center of Kristy was located near 14.2, -121.6 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 926 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.

The wildfire that began at Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst on Oct. 18 was contained after crews performed a back burn. The wildfire was located on the base, and no evacuations were needed. In the last week, 107 fires burned in The Garden State, charring 183 acres. NJ.com (Newark, N.J.), Oct 23, 2024

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (up to 1-1.75 inch diameter) and strong wind gusts (around 50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... Recent surface analysis places the primary low over southeast SD, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across central NE and into western KS. Additional surface cyclogenesis is still anticipated over central KS later this evening, at the intersection of the aforementioned cold front and a warm front that arcs from north-central KS eastward to MCI and even more southeastward through southwest MO. This warm front is expected to continue slowly progress northeastward, with warm and modest moist conditions advecting into eastern KS and adjacent far western MO. Thunderstorms are still expected as the cold front interacts with a modestly buoyant airmass across eastern KS and western MO. Some cellular activity is possible initially, with 35 to 45 kt of effective bulk shear supporting the potential for large hail (1 to 1.75" in diameter). Given the strong forcing along the front, any development should trend towards a linear mode quickly. The opportunity for severe will be limited by both the fast-moving front and narrow corridor of buoyancy, with severe coverage expected to remain isolated. A few isolated gusts from 50 to 60 mph are anticipated as well. Isolated hail also remains possible across southern IA, where warm-air advection should result in elevated thunderstorms amid cold mid-level temperatures and moderate vertical shear. In both of these areas, the overall severe coverage is still forecast to remain isolated, precluding the need to increase severe probabilities with this update. ..Mosier.. 10/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024/ ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... A shortwave trough over WY/CO will continue eastward across the central Plains through this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS Valley by early Friday morning. Related cyclogenesis across the central High Plains will lead to a consolidated surface low over the mid MO Valley this evening, with a cold front extending southwestward from the low across KS. A warm front should also be located over northern MO. Shallow low-level moisture, characterized by generally upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints, will be present across the warm sector from eastern KS into MO by late this afternoon. With the late arrival of large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, most guidance continues to show convective initiation occurring around 00Z, beginning in eastern KS and vicinity. Up to 750-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should be present across this area, with robust daytime heating aiding in the development of steep low-level lapse rates. Initial development may be briefly supercellular, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear supports updraft organization. Severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible with this initial activity, before a quick mode transition to more linear structures occurs along the cold front through the evening. Isolated strong to severe gusts (around 50-60 mph) may occur so long as thunderstorms remain surface based, before convection tends to become elevated with eastward extent into MO later this evening. Isolated hail may also occur this evening into the early overnight hours across parts of IA and northern MO, along/north of the warm front in a low-level warm advection regime. Sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear should be present for robust updrafts, although it remains unclear whether supercells will be able to maintained for more than an hour or two. Given continued uncertainty in the number and longevity of surface-based supercells across eastern KS into northwest MO this evening, have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (up to 1-1.75 inch diameter) and strong wind gusts (around 50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... Recent surface analysis places the primary low over southeast SD, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across central NE and into western KS. Additional surface cyclogenesis is still anticipated over central KS later this evening, at the intersection of the aforementioned cold front and a warm front that arcs from north-central KS eastward to MCI and even more southeastward through southwest MO. This warm front is expected to continue slowly progress northeastward, with warm and modest moist conditions advecting into eastern KS and adjacent far western MO. Thunderstorms are still expected as the cold front interacts with a modestly buoyant airmass across eastern KS and western MO. Some cellular activity is possible initially, with 35 to 45 kt of effective bulk shear supporting the potential for large hail (1 to 1.75" in diameter). Given the strong forcing along the front, any development should trend towards a linear mode quickly. The opportunity for severe will be limited by both the fast-moving front and narrow corridor of buoyancy, with severe coverage expected to remain isolated. A few isolated gusts from 50 to 60 mph are anticipated as well. Isolated hail also remains possible across southern IA, where warm-air advection should result in elevated thunderstorms amid cold mid-level temperatures and moderate vertical shear. In both of these areas, the overall severe coverage is still forecast to remain isolated, precluding the need to increase severe probabilities with this update. ..Mosier.. 10/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024/ ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... A shortwave trough over WY/CO will continue eastward across the central Plains through this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS Valley by early Friday morning. Related cyclogenesis across the central High Plains will lead to a consolidated surface low over the mid MO Valley this evening, with a cold front extending southwestward from the low across KS. A warm front should also be located over northern MO. Shallow low-level moisture, characterized by generally upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints, will be present across the warm sector from eastern KS into MO by late this afternoon. With the late arrival of large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, most guidance continues to show convective initiation occurring around 00Z, beginning in eastern KS and vicinity. Up to 750-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should be present across this area, with robust daytime heating aiding in the development of steep low-level lapse rates. Initial development may be briefly supercellular, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear supports updraft organization. Severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible with this initial activity, before a quick mode transition to more linear structures occurs along the cold front through the evening. Isolated strong to severe gusts (around 50-60 mph) may occur so long as thunderstorms remain surface based, before convection tends to become elevated with eastward extent into MO later this evening. Isolated hail may also occur this evening into the early overnight hours across parts of IA and northern MO, along/north of the warm front in a low-level warm advection regime. Sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear should be present for robust updrafts, although it remains unclear whether supercells will be able to maintained for more than an hour or two. Given continued uncertainty in the number and longevity of surface-based supercells across eastern KS into northwest MO this evening, have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (up to 1-1.75 inch diameter) and strong wind gusts (around 50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... Recent surface analysis places the primary low over southeast SD, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across central NE and into western KS. Additional surface cyclogenesis is still anticipated over central KS later this evening, at the intersection of the aforementioned cold front and a warm front that arcs from north-central KS eastward to MCI and even more southeastward through southwest MO. This warm front is expected to continue slowly progress northeastward, with warm and modest moist conditions advecting into eastern KS and adjacent far western MO. Thunderstorms are still expected as the cold front interacts with a modestly buoyant airmass across eastern KS and western MO. Some cellular activity is possible initially, with 35 to 45 kt of effective bulk shear supporting the potential for large hail (1 to 1.75" in diameter). Given the strong forcing along the front, any development should trend towards a linear mode quickly. The opportunity for severe will be limited by both the fast-moving front and narrow corridor of buoyancy, with severe coverage expected to remain isolated. A few isolated gusts from 50 to 60 mph are anticipated as well. Isolated hail also remains possible across southern IA, where warm-air advection should result in elevated thunderstorms amid cold mid-level temperatures and moderate vertical shear. In both of these areas, the overall severe coverage is still forecast to remain isolated, precluding the need to increase severe probabilities with this update. ..Mosier.. 10/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024/ ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... A shortwave trough over WY/CO will continue eastward across the central Plains through this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS Valley by early Friday morning. Related cyclogenesis across the central High Plains will lead to a consolidated surface low over the mid MO Valley this evening, with a cold front extending southwestward from the low across KS. A warm front should also be located over northern MO. Shallow low-level moisture, characterized by generally upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints, will be present across the warm sector from eastern KS into MO by late this afternoon. With the late arrival of large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, most guidance continues to show convective initiation occurring around 00Z, beginning in eastern KS and vicinity. Up to 750-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should be present across this area, with robust daytime heating aiding in the development of steep low-level lapse rates. Initial development may be briefly supercellular, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear supports updraft organization. Severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible with this initial activity, before a quick mode transition to more linear structures occurs along the cold front through the evening. Isolated strong to severe gusts (around 50-60 mph) may occur so long as thunderstorms remain surface based, before convection tends to become elevated with eastward extent into MO later this evening. Isolated hail may also occur this evening into the early overnight hours across parts of IA and northern MO, along/north of the warm front in a low-level warm advection regime. Sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear should be present for robust updrafts, although it remains unclear whether supercells will be able to maintained for more than an hour or two. Given continued uncertainty in the number and longevity of surface-based supercells across eastern KS into northwest MO this evening, have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (up to 1-1.75 inch diameter) and strong wind gusts (around 50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... Recent surface analysis places the primary low over southeast SD, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across central NE and into western KS. Additional surface cyclogenesis is still anticipated over central KS later this evening, at the intersection of the aforementioned cold front and a warm front that arcs from north-central KS eastward to MCI and even more southeastward through southwest MO. This warm front is expected to continue slowly progress northeastward, with warm and modest moist conditions advecting into eastern KS and adjacent far western MO. Thunderstorms are still expected as the cold front interacts with a modestly buoyant airmass across eastern KS and western MO. Some cellular activity is possible initially, with 35 to 45 kt of effective bulk shear supporting the potential for large hail (1 to 1.75" in diameter). Given the strong forcing along the front, any development should trend towards a linear mode quickly. The opportunity for severe will be limited by both the fast-moving front and narrow corridor of buoyancy, with severe coverage expected to remain isolated. A few isolated gusts from 50 to 60 mph are anticipated as well. Isolated hail also remains possible across southern IA, where warm-air advection should result in elevated thunderstorms amid cold mid-level temperatures and moderate vertical shear. In both of these areas, the overall severe coverage is still forecast to remain isolated, precluding the need to increase severe probabilities with this update. ..Mosier.. 10/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024/ ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... A shortwave trough over WY/CO will continue eastward across the central Plains through this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS Valley by early Friday morning. Related cyclogenesis across the central High Plains will lead to a consolidated surface low over the mid MO Valley this evening, with a cold front extending southwestward from the low across KS. A warm front should also be located over northern MO. Shallow low-level moisture, characterized by generally upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints, will be present across the warm sector from eastern KS into MO by late this afternoon. With the late arrival of large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, most guidance continues to show convective initiation occurring around 00Z, beginning in eastern KS and vicinity. Up to 750-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should be present across this area, with robust daytime heating aiding in the development of steep low-level lapse rates. Initial development may be briefly supercellular, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear supports updraft organization. Severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible with this initial activity, before a quick mode transition to more linear structures occurs along the cold front through the evening. Isolated strong to severe gusts (around 50-60 mph) may occur so long as thunderstorms remain surface based, before convection tends to become elevated with eastward extent into MO later this evening. Isolated hail may also occur this evening into the early overnight hours across parts of IA and northern MO, along/north of the warm front in a low-level warm advection regime. Sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear should be present for robust updrafts, although it remains unclear whether supercells will be able to maintained for more than an hour or two. Given continued uncertainty in the number and longevity of surface-based supercells across eastern KS into northwest MO this evening, have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. Read more