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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimum RH of 15-25% is likely in a dry post-frontal airmass across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, but winds should remain mostly below 10 mph. The forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widespread fire-weather concerns are unlikely over the CONUS today and tonight. A cold front is forecast to move eastward from the central US. Behind the front, high pressure will intensify, bolstering gusty northerly winds to 10-20 mph across the southern/central Plains. While dry, cooler temperatures should keep diurnal RH minimums above critical criteria. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions may develop closer to the front over parts of OK, KS, and TX, but widespread and sustained fire-weather conditions are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimum RH of 15-25% is likely in a dry post-frontal airmass across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, but winds should remain mostly below 10 mph. The forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widespread fire-weather concerns are unlikely over the CONUS today and tonight. A cold front is forecast to move eastward from the central US. Behind the front, high pressure will intensify, bolstering gusty northerly winds to 10-20 mph across the southern/central Plains. While dry, cooler temperatures should keep diurnal RH minimums above critical criteria. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions may develop closer to the front over parts of OK, KS, and TX, but widespread and sustained fire-weather conditions are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimum RH of 15-25% is likely in a dry post-frontal airmass across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, but winds should remain mostly below 10 mph. The forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widespread fire-weather concerns are unlikely over the CONUS today and tonight. A cold front is forecast to move eastward from the central US. Behind the front, high pressure will intensify, bolstering gusty northerly winds to 10-20 mph across the southern/central Plains. While dry, cooler temperatures should keep diurnal RH minimums above critical criteria. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions may develop closer to the front over parts of OK, KS, and TX, but widespread and sustained fire-weather conditions are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimum RH of 15-25% is likely in a dry post-frontal airmass across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, but winds should remain mostly below 10 mph. The forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widespread fire-weather concerns are unlikely over the CONUS today and tonight. A cold front is forecast to move eastward from the central US. Behind the front, high pressure will intensify, bolstering gusty northerly winds to 10-20 mph across the southern/central Plains. While dry, cooler temperatures should keep diurnal RH minimums above critical criteria. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions may develop closer to the front over parts of OK, KS, and TX, but widespread and sustained fire-weather conditions are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimum RH of 15-25% is likely in a dry post-frontal airmass across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, but winds should remain mostly below 10 mph. The forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widespread fire-weather concerns are unlikely over the CONUS today and tonight. A cold front is forecast to move eastward from the central US. Behind the front, high pressure will intensify, bolstering gusty northerly winds to 10-20 mph across the southern/central Plains. While dry, cooler temperatures should keep diurnal RH minimums above critical criteria. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions may develop closer to the front over parts of OK, KS, and TX, but widespread and sustained fire-weather conditions are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimum RH of 15-25% is likely in a dry post-frontal airmass across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, but winds should remain mostly below 10 mph. The forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widespread fire-weather concerns are unlikely over the CONUS today and tonight. A cold front is forecast to move eastward from the central US. Behind the front, high pressure will intensify, bolstering gusty northerly winds to 10-20 mph across the southern/central Plains. While dry, cooler temperatures should keep diurnal RH minimums above critical criteria. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions may develop closer to the front over parts of OK, KS, and TX, but widespread and sustained fire-weather conditions are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimum RH of 15-25% is likely in a dry post-frontal airmass across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, but winds should remain mostly below 10 mph. The forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widespread fire-weather concerns are unlikely over the CONUS today and tonight. A cold front is forecast to move eastward from the central US. Behind the front, high pressure will intensify, bolstering gusty northerly winds to 10-20 mph across the southern/central Plains. While dry, cooler temperatures should keep diurnal RH minimums above critical criteria. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions may develop closer to the front over parts of OK, KS, and TX, but widespread and sustained fire-weather conditions are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Berkshire County residents were warned to be cautious when using fire outside due to the dry conditions as the area was in a mild drought. The Berkshire Eagle (Pittsfield, Mass.), Oct 20, 2024

Nearly 400 birds moved through the Freezout Lake area on Oct. 24, the highest number in a single day so far this fall migration, but still far below the thousands that are usually coming through at this time of year. "Due to ongoing drought related impacts, low water levels are also present across the WMA. Low water levels will also likely influence bird presence and distribution and subsequently, hunter harvest success," according to bird counters. NBC Montana (Missoula), Oct 25, 2024

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A modestly amplified/progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/Ohio Valley. A cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and Tennessee Valley through tonight. Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into Indiana and Ohio to the north of a warm front across the Lower Ohio Valley. A modest increase in thunderstorm coverage should regionally occur into the afternoon, but weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer/Goss.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A modestly amplified/progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/Ohio Valley. A cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and Tennessee Valley through tonight. Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into Indiana and Ohio to the north of a warm front across the Lower Ohio Valley. A modest increase in thunderstorm coverage should regionally occur into the afternoon, but weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer/Goss.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A modestly amplified/progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/Ohio Valley. A cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and Tennessee Valley through tonight. Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into Indiana and Ohio to the north of a warm front across the Lower Ohio Valley. A modest increase in thunderstorm coverage should regionally occur into the afternoon, but weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer/Goss.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A modestly amplified/progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/Ohio Valley. A cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and Tennessee Valley through tonight. Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into Indiana and Ohio to the north of a warm front across the Lower Ohio Valley. A modest increase in thunderstorm coverage should regionally occur into the afternoon, but weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer/Goss.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A modestly amplified/progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/Ohio Valley. A cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and Tennessee Valley through tonight. Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into Indiana and Ohio to the north of a warm front across the Lower Ohio Valley. A modest increase in thunderstorm coverage should regionally occur into the afternoon, but weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer/Goss.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will dominate the CONUS D2/Saturday as the upper-level flow pattern amplifies. The prior cold front will continue eastward with trailing high pressure remaining over the central CONUS. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Local fire-weather concerns could develop, but are not expected to be widespread. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the upper ridge shifts east, westerly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains beginning early Saturday. As a result, weak lee troughing should develop and encourage breezy winds across parts of the Front Range and the High Plains. While not overly strong, periodic 15-20 mph surface winds and downslope drying will support RH values as low as 20-25%. The occasional stronger winds may overlap with areas of receptive fuels supporting a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, with only sporadic winds and marginal RH, more widespread fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Northeast... In the wake of the cold front moving offshore, a cooler, but still dry and breezy air mass may develop over parts of the Northeast Saturday. As the ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly and intensify. This should support dry offshore flow over much of the East Coast. While RH values may not be overly low, a few hours of RH below 30% appear likely given the dry origins of the continental air mass. With little recent rainfall, area fuels are quite dry. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, despite marginal winds and RH. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will dominate the CONUS D2/Saturday as the upper-level flow pattern amplifies. The prior cold front will continue eastward with trailing high pressure remaining over the central CONUS. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Local fire-weather concerns could develop, but are not expected to be widespread. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the upper ridge shifts east, westerly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains beginning early Saturday. As a result, weak lee troughing should develop and encourage breezy winds across parts of the Front Range and the High Plains. While not overly strong, periodic 15-20 mph surface winds and downslope drying will support RH values as low as 20-25%. The occasional stronger winds may overlap with areas of receptive fuels supporting a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, with only sporadic winds and marginal RH, more widespread fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Northeast... In the wake of the cold front moving offshore, a cooler, but still dry and breezy air mass may develop over parts of the Northeast Saturday. As the ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly and intensify. This should support dry offshore flow over much of the East Coast. While RH values may not be overly low, a few hours of RH below 30% appear likely given the dry origins of the continental air mass. With little recent rainfall, area fuels are quite dry. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, despite marginal winds and RH. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will dominate the CONUS D2/Saturday as the upper-level flow pattern amplifies. The prior cold front will continue eastward with trailing high pressure remaining over the central CONUS. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Local fire-weather concerns could develop, but are not expected to be widespread. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the upper ridge shifts east, westerly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains beginning early Saturday. As a result, weak lee troughing should develop and encourage breezy winds across parts of the Front Range and the High Plains. While not overly strong, periodic 15-20 mph surface winds and downslope drying will support RH values as low as 20-25%. The occasional stronger winds may overlap with areas of receptive fuels supporting a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, with only sporadic winds and marginal RH, more widespread fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Northeast... In the wake of the cold front moving offshore, a cooler, but still dry and breezy air mass may develop over parts of the Northeast Saturday. As the ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly and intensify. This should support dry offshore flow over much of the East Coast. While RH values may not be overly low, a few hours of RH below 30% appear likely given the dry origins of the continental air mass. With little recent rainfall, area fuels are quite dry. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, despite marginal winds and RH. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will dominate the CONUS D2/Saturday as the upper-level flow pattern amplifies. The prior cold front will continue eastward with trailing high pressure remaining over the central CONUS. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Local fire-weather concerns could develop, but are not expected to be widespread. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the upper ridge shifts east, westerly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains beginning early Saturday. As a result, weak lee troughing should develop and encourage breezy winds across parts of the Front Range and the High Plains. While not overly strong, periodic 15-20 mph surface winds and downslope drying will support RH values as low as 20-25%. The occasional stronger winds may overlap with areas of receptive fuels supporting a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, with only sporadic winds and marginal RH, more widespread fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Northeast... In the wake of the cold front moving offshore, a cooler, but still dry and breezy air mass may develop over parts of the Northeast Saturday. As the ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly and intensify. This should support dry offshore flow over much of the East Coast. While RH values may not be overly low, a few hours of RH below 30% appear likely given the dry origins of the continental air mass. With little recent rainfall, area fuels are quite dry. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, despite marginal winds and RH. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will dominate the CONUS D2/Saturday as the upper-level flow pattern amplifies. The prior cold front will continue eastward with trailing high pressure remaining over the central CONUS. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Local fire-weather concerns could develop, but are not expected to be widespread. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the upper ridge shifts east, westerly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains beginning early Saturday. As a result, weak lee troughing should develop and encourage breezy winds across parts of the Front Range and the High Plains. While not overly strong, periodic 15-20 mph surface winds and downslope drying will support RH values as low as 20-25%. The occasional stronger winds may overlap with areas of receptive fuels supporting a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, with only sporadic winds and marginal RH, more widespread fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Northeast... In the wake of the cold front moving offshore, a cooler, but still dry and breezy air mass may develop over parts of the Northeast Saturday. As the ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly and intensify. This should support dry offshore flow over much of the East Coast. While RH values may not be overly low, a few hours of RH below 30% appear likely given the dry origins of the continental air mass. With little recent rainfall, area fuels are quite dry. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, despite marginal winds and RH. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid/upper trough will progress eastward from the western U.S. to the Upper Midwest Days 4-7/Mon-Thu. As this occurs, a belt of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the southern/central Plains to the upper MS Valley on Day 5/Tue, and much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Day 6/Wed. In response, a series of surface lows will migrate across the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Days 5-6/Tue-Wed. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 50s to possibly low 60s F dewpoints northward across the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley during this time. Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tue in this warm advection regime ahead of the trough, and into Day 6/Wed as a cold front is forecast to progress eastward over the central CONUS. Given strong deep-layer southwesterly flow and increasing boundary-layer moisture to aid in destabilization, some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. However, capping may preclude a greater severe risk on Day 5/Tue as midlevel temperatures are forecast to be fairly warm. By Day 6/Wed, strong large-scale ascent may be lifting into the Great Lakes/Canada and out of phase with better low-level moisture and modest instability. Given uncertainty, will not introduce any 15 percent delineations at this time, but outlook areas may be needed in subsequent outlooks for parts of the central Plains to Upper Midwest vicinity around Days 5-6/Tue-Wed. Toward the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may eject from the western U.S. into the Plains. However, large spread in timing and position of this feature is resulting in low predictability from Day 7/Thu and beyond. Read more