Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A midlevel shortwave trough will move gradually eastward across the Upper Midwest through the forecast period, while being reinforced by an upstream midlevel impulse moving southeastward from the northern Plains into the base of the trough. While midlevel flow accompanying the trough will be modest, a broad area of DCVA will promote scattered thunderstorms from WI southward toward the Lower OH Valley. While locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out where PBL lapse rates diurnally steepen in cloud breaks, poor midlevel lapse rates (and marginal buoyancy) should limit the severe risk -- especially given modest deep-layer flow/shear. Farther south, a warm/moist air mass will be in place along/immediately south of a quasi-stationary surface boundary draped across southern/central KS. In the wake of an overnight convective cluster moving eastward out of southeastern KS/northeastern OK, weak low-level warm advection atop the residual outflow and quasi-stationary front should promote afternoon thunderstorms -- focused across northern OK into far southern KS. Modestly enhanced midlevel west-northwesterly flow (closer to the midlevel trough) will conditionally support a couple strong storms over northeastern OK, though uncertainty regarding PBL recovery behind morning convection limits confidence in the risk at this time. If confidence in PBL recovery increases, a Marginal Risk could be warranted here. Steep lapse rates and ample buoyancy across north-central into northwest OK may also promote a couple strong storms, but weak deep-layer flow/shear should limit the risk of organized storms. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A midlevel shortwave trough will move gradually eastward across the Upper Midwest through the forecast period, while being reinforced by an upstream midlevel impulse moving southeastward from the northern Plains into the base of the trough. While midlevel flow accompanying the trough will be modest, a broad area of DCVA will promote scattered thunderstorms from WI southward toward the Lower OH Valley. While locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out where PBL lapse rates diurnally steepen in cloud breaks, poor midlevel lapse rates (and marginal buoyancy) should limit the severe risk -- especially given modest deep-layer flow/shear. Farther south, a warm/moist air mass will be in place along/immediately south of a quasi-stationary surface boundary draped across southern/central KS. In the wake of an overnight convective cluster moving eastward out of southeastern KS/northeastern OK, weak low-level warm advection atop the residual outflow and quasi-stationary front should promote afternoon thunderstorms -- focused across northern OK into far southern KS. Modestly enhanced midlevel west-northwesterly flow (closer to the midlevel trough) will conditionally support a couple strong storms over northeastern OK, though uncertainty regarding PBL recovery behind morning convection limits confidence in the risk at this time. If confidence in PBL recovery increases, a Marginal Risk could be warranted here. Steep lapse rates and ample buoyancy across north-central into northwest OK may also promote a couple strong storms, but weak deep-layer flow/shear should limit the risk of organized storms. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A midlevel shortwave trough will move gradually eastward across the Upper Midwest through the forecast period, while being reinforced by an upstream midlevel impulse moving southeastward from the northern Plains into the base of the trough. While midlevel flow accompanying the trough will be modest, a broad area of DCVA will promote scattered thunderstorms from WI southward toward the Lower OH Valley. While locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out where PBL lapse rates diurnally steepen in cloud breaks, poor midlevel lapse rates (and marginal buoyancy) should limit the severe risk -- especially given modest deep-layer flow/shear. Farther south, a warm/moist air mass will be in place along/immediately south of a quasi-stationary surface boundary draped across southern/central KS. In the wake of an overnight convective cluster moving eastward out of southeastern KS/northeastern OK, weak low-level warm advection atop the residual outflow and quasi-stationary front should promote afternoon thunderstorms -- focused across northern OK into far southern KS. Modestly enhanced midlevel west-northwesterly flow (closer to the midlevel trough) will conditionally support a couple strong storms over northeastern OK, though uncertainty regarding PBL recovery behind morning convection limits confidence in the risk at this time. If confidence in PBL recovery increases, a Marginal Risk could be warranted here. Steep lapse rates and ample buoyancy across north-central into northwest OK may also promote a couple strong storms, but weak deep-layer flow/shear should limit the risk of organized storms. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2025 Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191732
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located in the central tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is
possible through the middle to latter part of next week while it
moves west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
is producing showers and thunderstorms displaced well to the west of
the surface center. Although the likelihood of further development
is decreasing, the system could still become a short-lived tropical
depression before it encounters increasingly hostile environmental
conditions and cooler waters.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that an area of
low pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. The system is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends westward over
the southwestern Mexico offshore waters. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by early to mid-next week while it
moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Northern California, Southern Oregon and the Great Basin... Deeper atmospheric moisture continues to stream northward into Northern California and northern Great Basin. Daytime instability over higher terrain along with weak forcing from a mid-level trough over central California and southern Great Basin will support afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the region. However, wetter thunderstorm cores, along with a lack of fuel receptiveness to new ignitions, limit the overall dry thunderstorm threat today. ...New England... Dry, post-frontal northwest flow continues across much of the New England region. Dry downslope enhancement southeast of the White Mountains in New Hampshire and Maine has resulted in relative humidity values as low as 35%. Sustained northwest winds of 10-15 mph through the afternoon will promote locally elevated fire weather conditions within relatively dry fuels. ..Williams.. 09/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Given generally weak surface winds and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected, no fire-weather highlights are forecast at this time. However, portions of the Pacific Northwest and New England may have some lower-end fire-weather potential. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists across portions of northern California into southern Oregon late this afternoon into the evening. Precipitable water near and exceeding 1 inch, combined with weak upper flow/slow storm motion vectors, will limit the threat of lightning ignitions due to wet downdraft cores with any storms that develop. Additionally, this precipitation will further temper already meager fuels in the area. There is a small possibility for lightning-based ignitions on the periphery of downdraft cores co-located with areas of drier fuels, but no widespread fire concerns are expected. ...New England... Offshore flow associated with a progressive mid-level trough and cold front will persist much of today across New England. While seasonal and annual ERC values exceed the 80th-90th percentiles, winds are forecast to stay around 10 MPH (gusting to 15 MPH) and relative humidity around 40%. Though this does not generally meet the criteria for Elevated fire-weather highlights, some potential for wildfire ignition and spread exists, largely owing to receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Northern California, Southern Oregon and the Great Basin... Deeper atmospheric moisture continues to stream northward into Northern California and northern Great Basin. Daytime instability over higher terrain along with weak forcing from a mid-level trough over central California and southern Great Basin will support afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the region. However, wetter thunderstorm cores, along with a lack of fuel receptiveness to new ignitions, limit the overall dry thunderstorm threat today. ...New England... Dry, post-frontal northwest flow continues across much of the New England region. Dry downslope enhancement southeast of the White Mountains in New Hampshire and Maine has resulted in relative humidity values as low as 35%. Sustained northwest winds of 10-15 mph through the afternoon will promote locally elevated fire weather conditions within relatively dry fuels. ..Williams.. 09/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Given generally weak surface winds and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected, no fire-weather highlights are forecast at this time. However, portions of the Pacific Northwest and New England may have some lower-end fire-weather potential. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists across portions of northern California into southern Oregon late this afternoon into the evening. Precipitable water near and exceeding 1 inch, combined with weak upper flow/slow storm motion vectors, will limit the threat of lightning ignitions due to wet downdraft cores with any storms that develop. Additionally, this precipitation will further temper already meager fuels in the area. There is a small possibility for lightning-based ignitions on the periphery of downdraft cores co-located with areas of drier fuels, but no widespread fire concerns are expected. ...New England... Offshore flow associated with a progressive mid-level trough and cold front will persist much of today across New England. While seasonal and annual ERC values exceed the 80th-90th percentiles, winds are forecast to stay around 10 MPH (gusting to 15 MPH) and relative humidity around 40%. Though this does not generally meet the criteria for Elevated fire-weather highlights, some potential for wildfire ignition and spread exists, largely owing to receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Northern California, Southern Oregon and the Great Basin... Deeper atmospheric moisture continues to stream northward into Northern California and northern Great Basin. Daytime instability over higher terrain along with weak forcing from a mid-level trough over central California and southern Great Basin will support afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the region. However, wetter thunderstorm cores, along with a lack of fuel receptiveness to new ignitions, limit the overall dry thunderstorm threat today. ...New England... Dry, post-frontal northwest flow continues across much of the New England region. Dry downslope enhancement southeast of the White Mountains in New Hampshire and Maine has resulted in relative humidity values as low as 35%. Sustained northwest winds of 10-15 mph through the afternoon will promote locally elevated fire weather conditions within relatively dry fuels. ..Williams.. 09/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Given generally weak surface winds and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected, no fire-weather highlights are forecast at this time. However, portions of the Pacific Northwest and New England may have some lower-end fire-weather potential. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists across portions of northern California into southern Oregon late this afternoon into the evening. Precipitable water near and exceeding 1 inch, combined with weak upper flow/slow storm motion vectors, will limit the threat of lightning ignitions due to wet downdraft cores with any storms that develop. Additionally, this precipitation will further temper already meager fuels in the area. There is a small possibility for lightning-based ignitions on the periphery of downdraft cores co-located with areas of drier fuels, but no widespread fire concerns are expected. ...New England... Offshore flow associated with a progressive mid-level trough and cold front will persist much of today across New England. While seasonal and annual ERC values exceed the 80th-90th percentiles, winds are forecast to stay around 10 MPH (gusting to 15 MPH) and relative humidity around 40%. Though this does not generally meet the criteria for Elevated fire-weather highlights, some potential for wildfire ignition and spread exists, largely owing to receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Northern California, Southern Oregon and the Great Basin... Deeper atmospheric moisture continues to stream northward into Northern California and northern Great Basin. Daytime instability over higher terrain along with weak forcing from a mid-level trough over central California and southern Great Basin will support afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the region. However, wetter thunderstorm cores, along with a lack of fuel receptiveness to new ignitions, limit the overall dry thunderstorm threat today. ...New England... Dry, post-frontal northwest flow continues across much of the New England region. Dry downslope enhancement southeast of the White Mountains in New Hampshire and Maine has resulted in relative humidity values as low as 35%. Sustained northwest winds of 10-15 mph through the afternoon will promote locally elevated fire weather conditions within relatively dry fuels. ..Williams.. 09/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Given generally weak surface winds and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected, no fire-weather highlights are forecast at this time. However, portions of the Pacific Northwest and New England may have some lower-end fire-weather potential. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists across portions of northern California into southern Oregon late this afternoon into the evening. Precipitable water near and exceeding 1 inch, combined with weak upper flow/slow storm motion vectors, will limit the threat of lightning ignitions due to wet downdraft cores with any storms that develop. Additionally, this precipitation will further temper already meager fuels in the area. There is a small possibility for lightning-based ignitions on the periphery of downdraft cores co-located with areas of drier fuels, but no widespread fire concerns are expected. ...New England... Offshore flow associated with a progressive mid-level trough and cold front will persist much of today across New England. While seasonal and annual ERC values exceed the 80th-90th percentiles, winds are forecast to stay around 10 MPH (gusting to 15 MPH) and relative humidity around 40%. Though this does not generally meet the criteria for Elevated fire-weather highlights, some potential for wildfire ignition and spread exists, largely owing to receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Northern California, Southern Oregon and the Great Basin... Deeper atmospheric moisture continues to stream northward into Northern California and northern Great Basin. Daytime instability over higher terrain along with weak forcing from a mid-level trough over central California and southern Great Basin will support afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the region. However, wetter thunderstorm cores, along with a lack of fuel receptiveness to new ignitions, limit the overall dry thunderstorm threat today. ...New England... Dry, post-frontal northwest flow continues across much of the New England region. Dry downslope enhancement southeast of the White Mountains in New Hampshire and Maine has resulted in relative humidity values as low as 35%. Sustained northwest winds of 10-15 mph through the afternoon will promote locally elevated fire weather conditions within relatively dry fuels. ..Williams.. 09/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Given generally weak surface winds and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected, no fire-weather highlights are forecast at this time. However, portions of the Pacific Northwest and New England may have some lower-end fire-weather potential. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists across portions of northern California into southern Oregon late this afternoon into the evening. Precipitable water near and exceeding 1 inch, combined with weak upper flow/slow storm motion vectors, will limit the threat of lightning ignitions due to wet downdraft cores with any storms that develop. Additionally, this precipitation will further temper already meager fuels in the area. There is a small possibility for lightning-based ignitions on the periphery of downdraft cores co-located with areas of drier fuels, but no widespread fire concerns are expected. ...New England... Offshore flow associated with a progressive mid-level trough and cold front will persist much of today across New England. While seasonal and annual ERC values exceed the 80th-90th percentiles, winds are forecast to stay around 10 MPH (gusting to 15 MPH) and relative humidity around 40%. Though this does not generally meet the criteria for Elevated fire-weather highlights, some potential for wildfire ignition and spread exists, largely owing to receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Northern California, Southern Oregon and the Great Basin... Deeper atmospheric moisture continues to stream northward into Northern California and northern Great Basin. Daytime instability over higher terrain along with weak forcing from a mid-level trough over central California and southern Great Basin will support afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the region. However, wetter thunderstorm cores, along with a lack of fuel receptiveness to new ignitions, limit the overall dry thunderstorm threat today. ...New England... Dry, post-frontal northwest flow continues across much of the New England region. Dry downslope enhancement southeast of the White Mountains in New Hampshire and Maine has resulted in relative humidity values as low as 35%. Sustained northwest winds of 10-15 mph through the afternoon will promote locally elevated fire weather conditions within relatively dry fuels. ..Williams.. 09/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Given generally weak surface winds and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected, no fire-weather highlights are forecast at this time. However, portions of the Pacific Northwest and New England may have some lower-end fire-weather potential. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists across portions of northern California into southern Oregon late this afternoon into the evening. Precipitable water near and exceeding 1 inch, combined with weak upper flow/slow storm motion vectors, will limit the threat of lightning ignitions due to wet downdraft cores with any storms that develop. Additionally, this precipitation will further temper already meager fuels in the area. There is a small possibility for lightning-based ignitions on the periphery of downdraft cores co-located with areas of drier fuels, but no widespread fire concerns are expected. ...New England... Offshore flow associated with a progressive mid-level trough and cold front will persist much of today across New England. While seasonal and annual ERC values exceed the 80th-90th percentiles, winds are forecast to stay around 10 MPH (gusting to 15 MPH) and relative humidity around 40%. Though this does not generally meet the criteria for Elevated fire-weather highlights, some potential for wildfire ignition and spread exists, largely owing to receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Central Plains... Increasing large-scale ascent associated with the embedded shortwave trough and modestly enhanced west-northwesterly jet should influence isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening across parts of southwest Nebraska into western Kansas. This region should have a modestly moist low-level airmass in place, with enough daytime heating forecast to support around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Even though mid-level lapse rates are not expected to become overly steep, strong deep-layer shear should aid in convective updraft organization. Any thunderstorms that can form and be sustained could produce isolated severe hail and/or wind gusts as they spread southeastward across western/central Kansas through the evening. ...Midwest/Mississippi Valley... An eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will more directly influence the middle/upper Mississippi Valley, with moderate destabilization expected this afternoon from the middle Mississippi Valley southward into the Mid-South where MLCAPE will tend to reach 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak deep tropospheric winds will be prevalent along with weak mid-level lapse rates. Even so, some strong to locally severe pulse storms may occur this afternoon through early evening in a broad region spanning parts of Wisconsin/Illinois southward to the Mid-South. ...Western/south-central Minnesota and vicinity... Pending cloud breaks/sufficient heating, scenario may be conducive for funnels and possibly a low chance of a brief tornado in proximity to the upper low and residual surface front, where low-level CAPE/ambient vorticity will be maximized. It is a generally similar regime as to yesterday's reported brief tornado in far southeast North Dakota, although today's setup may be less supportive and more uncertain. ...Southwest States including southeast Arizona... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early today across parts of central/eastern Arizona, and on a more isolated basis into western New Mexico and far west Texas. This activity is related to weak ascent aloft associated with minor perturbations rotating through/around a weak upper ridge over the Southwest. Some guidance shows potential for additional robust thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening, likely aided by orographic lift and other weak mid-level disturbances. While a localized severe storm or two could occur, substantial uncertainty exists regarding the intensity of these thunderstorms later today owing to ongoing clouds/precipitation, lack of a notable EML, and limited forecast instability. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Central Plains... Increasing large-scale ascent associated with the embedded shortwave trough and modestly enhanced west-northwesterly jet should influence isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening across parts of southwest Nebraska into western Kansas. This region should have a modestly moist low-level airmass in place, with enough daytime heating forecast to support around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Even though mid-level lapse rates are not expected to become overly steep, strong deep-layer shear should aid in convective updraft organization. Any thunderstorms that can form and be sustained could produce isolated severe hail and/or wind gusts as they spread southeastward across western/central Kansas through the evening. ...Midwest/Mississippi Valley... An eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will more directly influence the middle/upper Mississippi Valley, with moderate destabilization expected this afternoon from the middle Mississippi Valley southward into the Mid-South where MLCAPE will tend to reach 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak deep tropospheric winds will be prevalent along with weak mid-level lapse rates. Even so, some strong to locally severe pulse storms may occur this afternoon through early evening in a broad region spanning parts of Wisconsin/Illinois southward to the Mid-South. ...Western/south-central Minnesota and vicinity... Pending cloud breaks/sufficient heating, scenario may be conducive for funnels and possibly a low chance of a brief tornado in proximity to the upper low and residual surface front, where low-level CAPE/ambient vorticity will be maximized. It is a generally similar regime as to yesterday's reported brief tornado in far southeast North Dakota, although today's setup may be less supportive and more uncertain. ...Southwest States including southeast Arizona... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early today across parts of central/eastern Arizona, and on a more isolated basis into western New Mexico and far west Texas. This activity is related to weak ascent aloft associated with minor perturbations rotating through/around a weak upper ridge over the Southwest. Some guidance shows potential for additional robust thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening, likely aided by orographic lift and other weak mid-level disturbances. While a localized severe storm or two could occur, substantial uncertainty exists regarding the intensity of these thunderstorms later today owing to ongoing clouds/precipitation, lack of a notable EML, and limited forecast instability. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Central Plains... Increasing large-scale ascent associated with the embedded shortwave trough and modestly enhanced west-northwesterly jet should influence isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening across parts of southwest Nebraska into western Kansas. This region should have a modestly moist low-level airmass in place, with enough daytime heating forecast to support around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Even though mid-level lapse rates are not expected to become overly steep, strong deep-layer shear should aid in convective updraft organization. Any thunderstorms that can form and be sustained could produce isolated severe hail and/or wind gusts as they spread southeastward across western/central Kansas through the evening. ...Midwest/Mississippi Valley... An eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will more directly influence the middle/upper Mississippi Valley, with moderate destabilization expected this afternoon from the middle Mississippi Valley southward into the Mid-South where MLCAPE will tend to reach 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak deep tropospheric winds will be prevalent along with weak mid-level lapse rates. Even so, some strong to locally severe pulse storms may occur this afternoon through early evening in a broad region spanning parts of Wisconsin/Illinois southward to the Mid-South. ...Western/south-central Minnesota and vicinity... Pending cloud breaks/sufficient heating, scenario may be conducive for funnels and possibly a low chance of a brief tornado in proximity to the upper low and residual surface front, where low-level CAPE/ambient vorticity will be maximized. It is a generally similar regime as to yesterday's reported brief tornado in far southeast North Dakota, although today's setup may be less supportive and more uncertain. ...Southwest States including southeast Arizona... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early today across parts of central/eastern Arizona, and on a more isolated basis into western New Mexico and far west Texas. This activity is related to weak ascent aloft associated with minor perturbations rotating through/around a weak upper ridge over the Southwest. Some guidance shows potential for additional robust thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening, likely aided by orographic lift and other weak mid-level disturbances. While a localized severe storm or two could occur, substantial uncertainty exists regarding the intensity of these thunderstorms later today owing to ongoing clouds/precipitation, lack of a notable EML, and limited forecast instability. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Central Plains... Increasing large-scale ascent associated with the embedded shortwave trough and modestly enhanced west-northwesterly jet should influence isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening across parts of southwest Nebraska into western Kansas. This region should have a modestly moist low-level airmass in place, with enough daytime heating forecast to support around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Even though mid-level lapse rates are not expected to become overly steep, strong deep-layer shear should aid in convective updraft organization. Any thunderstorms that can form and be sustained could produce isolated severe hail and/or wind gusts as they spread southeastward across western/central Kansas through the evening. ...Midwest/Mississippi Valley... An eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will more directly influence the middle/upper Mississippi Valley, with moderate destabilization expected this afternoon from the middle Mississippi Valley southward into the Mid-South where MLCAPE will tend to reach 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak deep tropospheric winds will be prevalent along with weak mid-level lapse rates. Even so, some strong to locally severe pulse storms may occur this afternoon through early evening in a broad region spanning parts of Wisconsin/Illinois southward to the Mid-South. ...Western/south-central Minnesota and vicinity... Pending cloud breaks/sufficient heating, scenario may be conducive for funnels and possibly a low chance of a brief tornado in proximity to the upper low and residual surface front, where low-level CAPE/ambient vorticity will be maximized. It is a generally similar regime as to yesterday's reported brief tornado in far southeast North Dakota, although today's setup may be less supportive and more uncertain. ...Southwest States including southeast Arizona... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early today across parts of central/eastern Arizona, and on a more isolated basis into western New Mexico and far west Texas. This activity is related to weak ascent aloft associated with minor perturbations rotating through/around a weak upper ridge over the Southwest. Some guidance shows potential for additional robust thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening, likely aided by orographic lift and other weak mid-level disturbances. While a localized severe storm or two could occur, substantial uncertainty exists regarding the intensity of these thunderstorms later today owing to ongoing clouds/precipitation, lack of a notable EML, and limited forecast instability. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Central Plains... Increasing large-scale ascent associated with the embedded shortwave trough and modestly enhanced west-northwesterly jet should influence isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening across parts of southwest Nebraska into western Kansas. This region should have a modestly moist low-level airmass in place, with enough daytime heating forecast to support around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Even though mid-level lapse rates are not expected to become overly steep, strong deep-layer shear should aid in convective updraft organization. Any thunderstorms that can form and be sustained could produce isolated severe hail and/or wind gusts as they spread southeastward across western/central Kansas through the evening. ...Midwest/Mississippi Valley... An eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will more directly influence the middle/upper Mississippi Valley, with moderate destabilization expected this afternoon from the middle Mississippi Valley southward into the Mid-South where MLCAPE will tend to reach 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak deep tropospheric winds will be prevalent along with weak mid-level lapse rates. Even so, some strong to locally severe pulse storms may occur this afternoon through early evening in a broad region spanning parts of Wisconsin/Illinois southward to the Mid-South. ...Western/south-central Minnesota and vicinity... Pending cloud breaks/sufficient heating, scenario may be conducive for funnels and possibly a low chance of a brief tornado in proximity to the upper low and residual surface front, where low-level CAPE/ambient vorticity will be maximized. It is a generally similar regime as to yesterday's reported brief tornado in far southeast North Dakota, although today's setup may be less supportive and more uncertain. ...Southwest States including southeast Arizona... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early today across parts of central/eastern Arizona, and on a more isolated basis into western New Mexico and far west Texas. This activity is related to weak ascent aloft associated with minor perturbations rotating through/around a weak upper ridge over the Southwest. Some guidance shows potential for additional robust thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening, likely aided by orographic lift and other weak mid-level disturbances. While a localized severe storm or two could occur, substantial uncertainty exists regarding the intensity of these thunderstorms later today owing to ongoing clouds/precipitation, lack of a notable EML, and limited forecast instability. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Central Plains... Increasing large-scale ascent associated with the embedded shortwave trough and modestly enhanced west-northwesterly jet should influence isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening across parts of southwest Nebraska into western Kansas. This region should have a modestly moist low-level airmass in place, with enough daytime heating forecast to support around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Even though mid-level lapse rates are not expected to become overly steep, strong deep-layer shear should aid in convective updraft organization. Any thunderstorms that can form and be sustained could produce isolated severe hail and/or wind gusts as they spread southeastward across western/central Kansas through the evening. ...Midwest/Mississippi Valley... An eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will more directly influence the middle/upper Mississippi Valley, with moderate destabilization expected this afternoon from the middle Mississippi Valley southward into the Mid-South where MLCAPE will tend to reach 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak deep tropospheric winds will be prevalent along with weak mid-level lapse rates. Even so, some strong to locally severe pulse storms may occur this afternoon through early evening in a broad region spanning parts of Wisconsin/Illinois southward to the Mid-South. ...Western/south-central Minnesota and vicinity... Pending cloud breaks/sufficient heating, scenario may be conducive for funnels and possibly a low chance of a brief tornado in proximity to the upper low and residual surface front, where low-level CAPE/ambient vorticity will be maximized. It is a generally similar regime as to yesterday's reported brief tornado in far southeast North Dakota, although today's setup may be less supportive and more uncertain. ...Southwest States including southeast Arizona... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early today across parts of central/eastern Arizona, and on a more isolated basis into western New Mexico and far west Texas. This activity is related to weak ascent aloft associated with minor perturbations rotating through/around a weak upper ridge over the Southwest. Some guidance shows potential for additional robust thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening, likely aided by orographic lift and other weak mid-level disturbances. While a localized severe storm or two could occur, substantial uncertainty exists regarding the intensity of these thunderstorms later today owing to ongoing clouds/precipitation, lack of a notable EML, and limited forecast instability. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 09/19/2025 Read more

The Army Corps of Engineers planned to begin construction on an underwater sill across the bed of the Mississippi River to help prevent upriver progression of saltwater from the Gulf. The Mississippi River’s volume of water has dropped enough to allow saltwater to move upstream as much of the Mississippi River Valley was affected by drought. WDSU (New Orleans, La.), Sep 19, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2025 15:02:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2025 15:22:23 GMT