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MD 2099 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614... FOR MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2099 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0603 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Areas affected...Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614... Valid 182303Z - 190100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated wind/hail can be expected with convection as it spreads east this evening. DISCUSSION...A well-defined short-wave trough is advancing east across NE/KS early this evening. In response to this short wave, a weak surface boundary is serving as the focus for a broken line of robust convection, currently extending from Livingston County MO-Barry County MO-Crawford County AR. This activity is propagating through a modestly buoyant corridor of instability characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated severe winds and marginally severe hail have been reported with these storms, but 0-6km shear is seasonally weak and 500mb flow is on the order of 20-25kt. As a result, gusty winds should be the primary threat with this frontal convection as it propagates toward the eastern edge of ww614. ..Darrow.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 36489407 39449427 39449201 36499192 36489407 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW SZL TO 35 S SZL TO 5 WSW SZL TO 20 N SZL TO 35 N SZL TO 20 SW CDJ AND 20 ENE HRO TO 15 ENE SGF TO 30 SE SZL TO 10 E SZL TO 20 NNE SZL TO 20 SSE CDJ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2099 ..HALBERT..09/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC007-019-027-029-041-051-053-059-067-089-105-125-131-135-141- 151-153-159-161-169-175-195-215-225-229-190040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY CAMDEN CHARITON COLE COOPER DALLAS DOUGLAS HOWARD LACLEDE MARIES MILLER MONITEAU MORGAN OSAGE OZARK PETTIS PHELPS PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 614 SEVERE TSTM MO 182100Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southern Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...The influence of an upper trough and a warm/moist air mass that precedes it will allow for intensifying thunderstorms through late afternoon, with wind damage/some hail possible through early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Knob Noster MO to 55 miles south southeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Guyer Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 18 22:48:10 UTC 2025.

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW SZL TO 35 S SZL TO 5 WSW SZL TO 20 N SZL TO 35 N SZL TO 20 SW CDJ. ..HALBERT..09/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC007-009-015-019-027-029-033-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-067- 077-085-089-105-109-125-131-135-141-151-153-159-161-167-169-175- 185-195-209-213-215-225-229-182340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BARRY BENTON BOONE CALLAWAY CAMDEN CARROLL CEDAR CHARITON CHRISTIAN COLE COOPER DADE DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY HOWARD LACLEDE LAWRENCE MARIES MILLER MONITEAU MORGAN OSAGE OZARK PETTIS PHELPS POLK PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SALINE STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Northwest... Shortwave ridging is expected over the West this week with a significant warming trend likely into the weekend. This should support some drying of area fuels and the development of a low-level thermal trough with a modest increase in westerly low-level winds over the Columbia Basin. The ridge is then forecast to shift eastward Saturday, as stronger westerly flow aloft returns ahead of a shortwave trough/cold front and 50+ kt mid-level jet. On the lee side of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin, dry and breezy downslope conditions appear likely. While fuels are not expected to be overly supportive, the lower humidity and increase in westerly winds could favor some elevated fire-weather potential, mainly Saturday and Sunday, where 40% critical probabilities have been maintained. In addition to the threat for gusty winds, low thunderstorm chances are possible with a surge of sub-tropical moisture over the northern Great Basin and lower Cascades this weekend and early next week. Model guidance varies widely with respect to destabilization as significant cloud cover and PWATS above 1 inch are expected. However, isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of southern OR/northern CA each afternoon. Fuels are not overly receptive, and a wetter storm mode is anticipated given the substantial moisture content. Still, occasional dry strikes are possible on the periphery of heavier cores. Thereafter, model uncertainty remains high. Shortwave ridging behind the departing trough this weekend could support nuisance dry/breezy fire-weather concerns into next week. Additionally, the potential for another upper trough along the West coast could also favor thunderstorm/rainfall potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. Given these uncertainties, confidence in fire-weather concerns next week is minimal. ...New England... In the wake of a cold front moving offshore over the Northeast Friday, dry downslope conditions are likely over parts of New England through the day Saturday. While some gusty winds may mix down from strong northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure is expected to rapidly develop. Post-frontal surface winds should weaken, with gusts largely under 10 mph by the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist with afternoon RH minimums near 25%. Given the ongoing drought, the lower humidity could support locally elevated burning environments for a few hours Saturday before cooler temperatures and returning onshore flow raise overnight humidity. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

A Massac County farmer didn’t recall any rain on his fields since July 4, apart from one one-inch rain, and the crop yields were lower than normal. The non-irrigated early beans were about 10 to 15 bushels below normal. The earliest corn yield was in the low to mid-20s. The farmer preferred the moisture to be about 18% to 19% before he really started shelling corn, and it’s drying quickly. Early planted crops were faring better than late planted ones from what he has heard from his neighbors. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), Sep 18, 2025

MD 2098 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Areas affected...Parts of Missouri and far southeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181949Z - 182145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in intensity and coverage while spreading/developing eastward this afternoon into the evening, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail. It is unclear if a watch will be needed, though convective and environmental trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Within the base of a vertically stacked cyclone over the northern Plains, water-vapor imagery indicates a compact shortwave trough and accompanying MCV moving east-northeastward across eastern KS. The leading edge of associated midlevel height falls/large-scale ascent -- demarcated by a shallow convective band moving across eastern KS -- will continue spreading east-northeastward across western MO through the afternoon. Here, differential heating amid lower/middle 60s dewpoints along the eastern edge of the convective band and related cloud debris will promote a gradual increase in thunderstorms (aided by the glancing large-scale ascent). Moderate pre-convective surface-based buoyancy and strengthening midlevel southwesterlies peripheral to the shortwave trough (around 30 kt of effective shear) will support loosely organized cells/clusters. Initial cellular/discrete storms will pose a risk of marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts. However, the parallel orientation of the deep-layer flow/shear to the axis of low/mid-level forcing may favor localized upscale growth with time, leading to primarily a damaging-wind risk. Given the somewhat marginal deep-layer flow/shear, it is unclear if a watch will be needed, though convective and environmental trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 37449483 38149477 39089438 39759375 40099310 40109239 39819204 38509210 37229247 36749298 36519370 36579413 36789444 37449483 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0614 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more